Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Market Price (8/4/2026): $99.5 | Market Cap: $13.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Footwear
Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Market Price (8/4/2026): $99.5Market Cap: $13.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Footwear
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 8.1% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.4 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | Key risksDECK key risks include [1] its dependence on a limited supply of quality sheepskin for its UGG brand and [2] its significant sales concentration in the UGG and HOKA brands. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 8.1% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
| Key risksDECK key risks include [1] its dependence on a limited supply of quality sheepskin for its UGG brand and [2] its significant sales concentration in the UGG and HOKA brands. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Deckers Outdoor (DECK) stock has lost about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deckers Outdoor's updated fiscal year 2027 diluted EPS guidance fell short of analyst expectations.
On July 23, 2026, Deckers Outdoor reported its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings, which ended June 30, 2026. While the company surpassed analyst estimates for Q1 2027 diluted earnings per share (EPS) with $0.94 against a consensus of $0.87, and revenue of $1.02 billion against an estimate of $1.018 billion, its updated full fiscal year 2027 diluted EPS guidance, raised to a range of $7.35 to $7.50, had a midpoint of $7.43, which was below Wall Street's average estimate of $7.49. This discrepancy in the full-year outlook, despite a strong quarterly performance, contributed to a decline in the stock price.
2. Concerns over slower-than-anticipated growth in the HOKA brand tempered investor sentiment.
Although the HOKA brand's revenue for fiscal Q1 2027 increased by 8% year-over-year to $704 million, this figure was a slight miss compared to analyst estimates. Leading up to the earnings report, some analysts had already expressed caution regarding "slower growth in Hoka than previously anticipated," which likely factored into the market's reaction to the Q1 results and the overall outlook.
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Deckers Outdoor (DECK) stock has lost about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deckers Outdoor's updated fiscal year 2027 diluted EPS guidance fell short of analyst expectations.
On July 23, 2026, Deckers Outdoor reported its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings, which ended June 30, 2026. While the company surpassed analyst estimates for Q1 2027 diluted earnings per share (EPS) with $0.94 against a consensus of $0.87, and revenue of $1.02 billion against an estimate of $1.018 billion, its updated full fiscal year 2027 diluted EPS guidance, raised to a range of $7.35 to $7.50, had a midpoint of $7.43, which was below Wall Street's average estimate of $7.49. This discrepancy in the full-year outlook, despite a strong quarterly performance, contributed to a decline in the stock price.
2. Concerns over slower-than-anticipated growth in the HOKA brand tempered investor sentiment.
Although the HOKA brand's revenue for fiscal Q1 2027 increased by 8% year-over-year to $704 million, this figure was a slight miss compared to analyst estimates. Leading up to the earnings report, some analysts had already expressed caution regarding "slower growth in Hoka than previously anticipated," which likely factored into the market's reaction to the Q1 results and the overall outlook.
3. An increase in the company's tariff assumptions acted as a near-term headwind.
During its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings call, Deckers Outdoor's management updated its go-forward tariff assumption from 10% to 12.5%. This increased tariff expectation was highlighted as a near-term headwind, contributing to a more cautious outlook and potentially impacting the company's profitability projections for fiscal year 2027.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.6% change in DECK stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 102.20 | 99.50 | -2.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,375 | 5,527 | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.3% | 18.4% | -5.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.2 | 13.6 | -4.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 144 | 138 | 4.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DECK | -2.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.4% | 26.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.1% | 54.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.6% change in DECK stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 119.34 | 99.50 | -16.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,244 | 5,527 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.4% | 18.4% | -5.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.3 | 13.6 | -21.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 147 | 138 | 6.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DECK | -16.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 44.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.2% | 59.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.3% change in DECK stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 106.17 | 99.50 | -6.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,125 | 5,527 | 7.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.3% | 18.4% | -4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.0 | 13.6 | -15.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 149 | 138 | 8.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DECK | -6.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | 29.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.4% | 43.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.8% change in DECK stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 52.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 90.61 | 99.50 | 9.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,627 | 5,527 | 52.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.2% | 18.4% | 28.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.7 | 13.6 | -51.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 158 | 138 | 14.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.8% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DECK | 9.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 71.4% | 43.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 39.2% | 48.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DECK Return | 28% | 9% | 67% | 82% | -49% | -7% | 103% |
| Peers Return | 26% | -34% | 0% | 23% | -20% | -3% | -20% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DECK Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 38% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 30% | 52% | 50% | 42% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 38% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DECK Max Drawdown | -25% | -38% | -14% | -23% | -64% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -54% | -40% | -28% | -46% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NKE, ONON, CROX, VFC, COLM. See DECK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DECK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 499 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 745 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Deckers Outdoor's stock fell -5.8% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | DECK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 499 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 745 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -77.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 337.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 473 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Deckers Outdoor's stock fell -5.8% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is a global designer, marketer, and distributor of a diverse range of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company caters to both casual lifestyle consumers and high-performance athletes, offering products that span everyday comfort and specialized athletic needs.
Deckers manages a portfolio of well-known brands, each targeting distinct market segments. Its flagship brand, UGG, is recognized for premium casual footwear, apparel, and accessories. Other notable brands include Teva and Sanuk, which offer sandals and relaxed casual shoes, while Hoka provides specialized footwear and apparel for ultra-runners and athletes. The company also offers fashion casual footwear under the Koolaburra brand.
Deckers distributes its products through a multi-channel approach, reaching consumers directly via its own retail stores and e-commerce websites. Additionally, it leverages a broad network of wholesale partners, including department stores, national retail chains, independent specialty retailers, and online retailers. The company's market presence is global, with sales and distribution operations across the United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America.
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1. A footwear-focused VF Corporation.
2. Like Gap Inc., but for a diverse portfolio of footwear brands rather than apparel.
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- UGG products: Premium footwear, apparel, and accessories, often featuring sheepskin and other plush materials.
- Teva products: Sandals, shoes, and boots designed for various activities.
- Sanuk products: Relaxed casual shoes and sandals.
- Hoka products: Performance footwear and apparel specifically for ultra-runners and athletes.
- Koolaburra products: Fashion casual footwear, frequently utilizing sheepskin and other plush materials.
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Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) sells its products through various channels, including department stores, domestic independent action sports and outdoor specialty footwear retailers, larger national retail chains, and online retailers (B2B wholesale). However, the specific names of these major customer companies are not provided in the background information.
Deckers Outdoor also sells its products directly to individual consumers through its own retail stores and e-commerce websites. Based on its brand portfolio, the company serves the following categories of individual customers:
- Athletes and Active Lifestyle Enthusiasts: This category includes ultra-runners and athletes who purchase performance footwear and apparel under the Hoka brand, as well as individuals seeking durable and functional sandals, shoes, and boots for outdoor activities and an active lifestyle from the Teva brand. These customers prioritize performance, comfort, and durability for high-performance activities and outdoor adventures.
- Casual Lifestyle and Comfort Seekers: This broad category encompasses consumers looking for premium, comfortable, and stylish footwear, apparel, and accessories for everyday wear. Brands like UGG cater to those desiring luxury, warmth, and on-trend casual styles, while Sanuk appeals to individuals seeking relaxed, comfortable, and casual shoes and sandals. These customers value comfort, style, and ease of wear in their daily lives.
- Fashion-Conscious Consumers: Primarily targeted by brands such as UGG and Koolaburra, this segment includes individuals who seek trendy and fashionable footwear and accessories. Koolaburra, in particular, focuses on fashion casual footwear using plush materials, appealing to those who desire stylish options, while UGG also maintains a strong fashion presence. These customers are driven by current trends and the aesthetic appeal of their footwear.
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Stefano Caroti
Chief Executive Officer, President & Director
Mr. Caroti was appointed Chief Executive Officer and President of Deckers Outdoor Corporation on August 1, 2024, and was elected to the Board in September 2024. He brings over 32 years of industry experience across general management, sales, retail, product, marketing, business strategy, and brand management. Prior to his current role, he served as Deckers' Chief Commercial Officer and President of Omni-Channel. Before joining Deckers, Mr. Caroti was the Chief Commercial Officer and Managing Director at PUMA from August 2008 to December 2014, where he was responsible for the company's global wholesale, retail, and e-commerce divisions. He also held several senior executive positions at NIKE, Inc. in general management, sales, product, and marketing, including Vice President of EMEA commerce.
Steven J. Fasching
Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Fasching was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Deckers Outdoor Corporation in June 2018. He joined Deckers in August 2011 as Vice President, Strategic Financial Planning, and subsequently served as Vice President, Strategy & Investor Relations from January 2016 to February 2018, and Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy, Planning & Investor Relations since February 2018. Mr. Fasching possesses over 30 years of experience in long-term financial and strategic planning within multi-billion dollar organizations. Before his tenure at Deckers, he held senior finance-related roles at Princess Cruises.
Angela Ogbechie
Chief Supply Chain Officer
Ms. Ogbechie was appointed Chief Supply Chain Officer of Deckers Outdoor Corporation in June 2022. Prior to this, she served as Senior Vice President, Global Operations and Supply Chain Strategy since November 2021. Ms. Ogbechie has been with Deckers since 2008, holding various senior supply chain positions and gaining extensive experience in global demand planning, logistics, distribution, and fulfillment. Before joining Deckers, she worked as a Senior Consultant at Grant Thornton LLP from July 2005 to June 2008. She holds a B.A. in Economics from Stanford University and an M.B.A. from Columbia University Business School.
Anne Spangenberg
President, Fashion Lifestyle Group
Ms. Spangenberg was appointed President of the Fashion Lifestyle Group in July 2022. She joined Deckers following a 13-year career at NIKE, Inc., where she held the position of Chief Merchant. Her prior experience includes leadership roles at Gap, Inc. and Macy's West. Ms. Spangenberg has over 25 years of experience in global consumer-focused omni-channel retail, covering product creation, merchandising, buying, analytics, stores, digital, wholesale, and vertical. She earned her B.A. in International Relations from the University of California, Davis.
Robin Green
President, HOKA Brand
Ms. Green was appointed President of HOKA in February 2024. Before joining Deckers, she spent 17 years at NIKE, Inc., where she advanced through various roles, culminating in her position as Global Vice President of Men's Running and Fitness. She has over 20 years of experience across the global consumer products landscape, with strong expertise in leading and operating complex businesses to maximize their potential and drive growth. Ms. Green holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of California, Davis.
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Key Risks to Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
- Macroeconomic Headwinds and Consumer Spending Sensitivity: Deckers operates in the consumer discretionary sector, making its business highly sensitive to economic cycles, inflationary pressures, and changes in consumer disposable income. Economic downturns or cautious consumer behavior can lead to reduced demand for footwear and apparel, increased promotional activities, and potential "demand erosion," directly impacting profitability and sales, particularly for the company's direct-to-consumer strategy which relies on full-price sales.
- Intense Competition: The footwear and apparel industry is highly competitive, with numerous companies vying for market share. Deckers faces significant challenges from aggressive strategies by competitors such as Nike and Adidas, especially in segments where its Hoka brand operates. Maintaining market share and competitive positioning necessitates continuous product innovation, differentiation, and substantial marketing and research and development expenditures. Additionally, the company faces risks from counterfeit product sales, which can dilute brand value and lead to legal disputes.
- Supply Chain Disruptions and Concentration: Deckers' ability to timely source, manufacture, and distribute its products is critical. The company's supply chain is vulnerable to disruptions, including those arising from geopolitical tensions and manufacturing concentration in specific regions, such as Vietnam for a significant portion of its footwear. Furthermore, reliance on specific raw materials like sheepskin for a considerable portion of UGG brand products, coupled with limited suppliers and specific quality requirements, poses a risk if supply is interrupted, prices become unacceptable, or if there are legal or social impediments to its use. Such disruptions can interrupt product flow, increase production and transportation costs, and lead to inventory shortages and lost sales.
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Deckers Outdoor Corporation (symbol: DECK) operates in several footwear market segments through its main brands. The addressable market sizes for their primary products or services are outlined below:
- UGG: The global UGG boots market size was valued at approximately USD 2.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from 2023 to 2030. North America is the largest market for UGG boots.
- Teva: The global sandals market size is valued at USD 70.62 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 110.28 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.73%.
- Sanuk: This brand falls under the broader casual footwear market. The global casual shoes market is estimated to reach USD 163.1 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.4% from 2024 to 2030. North America held the majority market share of 37% in 2023 within the casual shoes market.
- Hoka: This brand is a key player in the athletic footwear market. The global athletic footwear market size was valued at USD 152.78 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach USD 234.68 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 5.51%.
- Koolaburra: This brand operates within the sheepskin boots market and casual footwear segment. The global market size for sheepskin boots was valued at approximately USD 1.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 3.6 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.8%.
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Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Continued Expansion of the HOKA Brand: The HOKA brand is consistently highlighted as a primary engine for Deckers' financial performance and is forecast to continue its explosive growth, aiming to surpass $2.5 billion in annual sales by fiscal year 2026. This growth is driven by increasing market share in the performance running category, new product launches, and diversification into apparel.
- UGG Brand Resilience and Expanded Appeal: While HOKA leads growth, the UGG brand is projected to continue its strong performance, with expectations for mid-single-digit growth. The company's strategy focuses on transforming UGG into a year-round luxury lifestyle brand, expanding its men's category, and implementing a "365 initiative" to reduce seasonal concentration and broaden global acceptance.
- Strategic Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel Growth: Deckers is heavily investing in its high-margin direct-to-consumer operations, encompassing e-commerce and a global network of retail stores. The DTC channel is considered a cornerstone of its sales and marketing strategy, delivering higher gross margins and providing valuable first-party customer data, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. In fiscal year 2024, DTC sales accounted for 45% of net sales, and this focus is expected to continue driving revenue and profitability.
- Aggressive International Market Expansion: International markets are a significant growth opportunity for Deckers, particularly for the HOKA brand, and are expected to outpace U.S. growth. The company is actively targeting EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) and APAC (Asia-Pacific) regions to diversify revenue streams. In fiscal year 2024, HOKA net sales surged by 45.2% in EMEA and 78.5% in APAC, demonstrating the success of this international push.
- Product Category Diversification and Innovation: Deckers continues to invest in innovation and product diversification to capture new market share and increase customer spend. This includes the successful launch of HOKA's dedicated apparel line in 2024, aimed at competing more holistically within the athleticwear market. Additionally, strategic acquisitions, such as Feetures for performance socks, provide immediate entry into new product categories.
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Share Repurchases
- In May 2025, Deckers Outdoor's Board of Directors approved an increase of $2.25 billion to its stock repurchase program, bringing the total authorization to approximately $2.5 billion.
- The company repurchased approximately 3.8 million shares for a total of $567 million in fiscal year 2025.
- In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Deckers repurchased an additional 765,000 shares for $84 million as of May 9, 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Deckers Outdoor divested its Sanuk brand in 2024, selling it to Lolë Brands.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for Deckers Outdoor averaged $67.959 million from fiscal years ending March 2021 to 2025.
- Capital expenditures peaked in March 2024 at $89.365 million and were $86.171 million in March 2025.
- For fiscal year 2026, the company expects to deploy focused capital expenditures in the range of $120 million to $130 million to support future growth.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 50.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| Rev LTM | 4,791 |
| Op Inc LTM | 726 |
| FCF LTM | 643 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 636 |
| CFO LTM | 758 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 750 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.2 |
| P/EBIT | 12.4 |
| P/E | 19.3 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -4.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -25.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -70.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGG | 2,739 | 2,531 | 2,239 | 1,929 | 1,088 |
| HOKA | 2,587 | 2,233 | 1,807 | 1,413 | 629 |
| Other Brands | 146 | 221 | 242 | 285 | 61 |
| Direct-to-Consumer | 1,214 | ||||
| Sanuk brand wholesale | 30 | ||||
| Teva brand wholesale | 129 | ||||
| Total | 5,472 | 4,986 | 4,288 | 3,627 | 3,150 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGG | 1,045 | 1,003 | 805 | 572 | 315 |
| HOKA | 911 | 849 | 719 | 528 | 155 |
| Other Brands | 16 | 35 | 24 | 50 | 14 |
| Unallocated enterprise and shared brand expenses | -710 | -707 | -620 | -498 | |
| Direct-to-Consumer | 435 | ||||
| Sanuk brand wholesale | 6 | ||||
| Teva brand wholesale | 33 | ||||
| Unallocated overhead costs | -395 | ||||
| Total | 1,263 | 1,179 | 928 | 653 | 565 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unallocated cash and cash equivalents | 1,502 | 982 | 844 | 1,089 | 649 |
| Unallocated other corporate assets | 504 | 414 | 393 | 320 | 312 |
| HOKA | 436 | 446 | 293 | 168 | 125 |
| Direct-to-Consumer | 264 | 219 | 191 | 196 | 243 |
| UGG | 247 | 262 | 383 | 212 | 245 |
| Teva brand wholesale | 82 | 95 | 91 | 87 | 90 |
| Unallocated deferred tax assets, net | 73 | 73 | 64 | 37 | 28 |
| Sanuk brand wholesale | 19 | 41 | 41 | 38 | 50 |
| Other Brands | 9 | 24 | 32 | 19 | 22 |
| Total | 3,136 | 2,556 | 2,332 | 2,168 | 1,765 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $99.50 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 13.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/15/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $106.14 | $102.41 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -6.3% | -2.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 42.0% | 45.0% |
| Downside Capture | 94.21 | 88.45 |
| Upside Capture | 80.77 | 63.28 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 25.2% | 29.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.33 | 0.42 | 0.77 | 1.09 | 1.02 | 1.30 |
| Up Beta | -3.14 | -1.06 | -0.25 | 1.35 | 1.23 | 1.29 |
| Down Beta | 2.14 | 1.24 | 1.25 | 1.51 | 1.47 | 1.31 |
| Up Capture | 56% | 1% | 65% | 74% | 51% | 169% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 17 | 26 | 54 | 113 | 372 |
| Down Capture | 96% | 101% | 109% | 100% | 97% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 26 | 37 | 72 | 139 | 379 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DECK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK | -6.3% | 44.9% | -0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.4% | 19.6% | 0.25 | 43.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.0% | 12.9% | 1.20 | 29.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.8% | 28.1% | 0.72 | -6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 28.8% | 19.7% | 1.16 | -30.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.5% | 13.8% | 0.80 | 35.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.9% | 43.1% | -1.30 | 14.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DECK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK | 7.9% | 44.3% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.9% | 24.1% | 0.21 | 54.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.58 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.5% | 0.75 | -1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 19.5% | 0.32 | -2.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 35.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 53.1% | 0.39 | 23.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DECK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK | 25.8% | 42.6% | 0.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 22.2% | 0.51 | 55.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 49.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 18.0% | 0.31 | 9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 38.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 14.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/23/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/21/2026 | 3.9% | 10.9% | 1.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | 19.5% | 11.3% | 14.6% |
| 10/23/2025 | -15.2% | -21.1% | -17.0% |
| 7/24/2025 | 11.3% | 1.2% | 4.0% |
| 5/22/2025 | -19.9% | -16.3% | -18.9% |
| 1/30/2025 | -20.5% | -22.8% | -38.5% |
| 10/24/2024 | 10.6% | 5.8% | 26.4% |
| 7/25/2024 | 6.3% | 7.7% | 15.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 17 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 9.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -5.0% | -17.0% |
| Max Positive | 19.5% | 24.0% | 35.5% |
| Max Negative | -20.5% | -22.8% | -38.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/21/2026 | 3.9% | 10.9% | 1.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | 19.5% | 11.3% | 14.6% |
| 10/23/2025 | -15.2% | -21.1% | -17.0% |
| 7/24/2025 | 11.3% | 1.2% | 4.0% |
| 5/22/2025 | -19.9% | -16.3% | -18.9% |
| 1/30/2025 | -20.5% | -22.8% | -38.5% |
| 10/24/2024 | 10.6% | 5.8% | 26.4% |
| 7/25/2024 | 6.3% | 7.7% | 15.8% |
| 5/23/2024 | 14.2% | 20.9% | 7.8% |
| 2/1/2024 | 14.1% | 7.7% | 19.9% |
| 10/26/2023 | 18.9% | 24.0% | 35.5% |
| 7/27/2023 | -0.6% | 3.4% | -2.9% |
| 5/25/2023 | 3.4% | 5.9% | 13.8% |
| 2/2/2023 | -1.7% | -0.1% | 2.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | -4.1% | -1.0% | 6.5% |
| 7/28/2022 | 9.0% | 9.0% | 14.3% |
| 5/19/2022 | 12.6% | 15.6% | 13.9% |
| 2/3/2022 | -5.7% | -5.0% | -27.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | 3.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
| 7/29/2021 | 1.0% | 7.0% | 4.1% |
| 5/20/2021 | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% |
| 2/4/2021 | -0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 10/29/2020 | -1.7% | 8.1% | -1.2% |
| 7/30/2020 | -2.1% | -3.4% | -3.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 17 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 9.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -5.0% | -17.0% |
| Max Positive | 19.5% | 24.0% | 35.5% |
| Max Negative | -20.5% | -22.8% | -38.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/22/2026 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/24/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/26/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/22/2026 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/24/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/26/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/27/2022 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/28/2021 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 06/01/2020 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 5/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Revenue | 5.86 Bil | 5.88 Bil | 5.91 Bil | 8.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.41 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Gross Margin | 56.5% | -0.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 57.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2027 SG&A Expenses as a percentage of net sales | 0.35 | 0.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.34 for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Operating Margin | 21.5% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 22.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Effective Tax Rate | 23.0% | ||||||
| 2027 EPS | 7.3 | 7.38 | 7.45 | 8.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 6.83 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 5.40 Bil | 5.41 Bil | 5.42 Bil | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 5.35 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 HOKA Revenue Growth | 15.0% | 3.5% | Raised | Guidance: 11.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 UGG Revenue Growth | 5.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Gross Margin | 57.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 56.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 SG&A Expenses as a percentage of net sales | 0.34 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.34 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 22.5% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 21.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 EPS | 6.8 | 6.83 | 6.85 | 7.6% | Raised | Guidance: 6.34 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 5.35 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 HOKA Revenue Growth | 11.0% | 11.5% | |||||
| 2026 UGG Revenue Growth | 1.0% | 4.5% | |||||
| 2026 Gross Margin | 56.0% | ||||||
| 2026 SG&A Expenses as % of Net Sales | 0.34 | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 21.5% | ||||||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | 23.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | 6.3 | 6.34 | |||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spangenberg, Anne | President, Fashion Lifestyle | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 116.02 | 4,063 | 471,389 | 9,333,693 | Form |
| 2 | Spring-Green, Robin | President, Hoka | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 113.78 | 347 | 39,482 | 4,831,213 | Form |
| 3 | Shanahan, Lauri M | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 114.84 | 4,682 | 537,681 | 2,873,986 | Form | |
| 4 | Ogbechie, Angela | Chief Supply Chain Officer | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 81.45 | 1,460 | 118,910 | 2,770,768 | Form |
| 5 | Ibrahim, Maha Saleh | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 118.02 | 300 | 35,405 | 1,295,687 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spangenberg, Anne | President, Fashion Lifestyle | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 116.02 | 4,063 | 471,389 | 9,333,693 | Form |
| 2 | Spring-Green, Robin | President, Hoka | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 113.78 | 347 | 39,482 | 4,831,213 | Form |
| 3 | Shanahan, Lauri M | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 114.84 | 4,682 | 537,681 | 2,873,986 | Form | |
| 4 | Ogbechie, Angela | Chief Supply Chain Officer | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 81.45 | 1,460 | 118,910 | 2,770,768 | Form |
| 5 | Ibrahim, Maha Saleh | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 118.02 | 300 | 35,405 | 1,295,687 | Form | |
| 6 | Ibrahim, Maha Saleh | Direct | Sell | 6062025 | 109.08 | 300 | 32,723 | 1,165,041 | Form | |
| 7 | Davis, Cindy L | Direct | Buy | 6062025 | 109.76 | 1,825 | 200,319 | 1,464,252 | Form | |
| 8 | Ogbechie, Angela | Chief Supply Chain Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032025 | 103.89 | 6,244 | 648,675 | 2,075,678 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 4, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC | $66.2 Mil | 7.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $20.4 Mil | 5.1% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Vienna Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne S.A. Vienna Insurance Group | $11.8 Mil | 4.5% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Shapiro Capital Management LLC | $53.4 Mil | 3.3% | 50 | TRIM -25.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nixon Capital, LLC | $17.4 Mil | 4.6% | 29 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $12.2 Mil | 1.3% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Wealth High Governance Capital Ltda | $6.3 Mil | 1.2% | 46 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Shapiro Capital Management LLC | $53.4 Mil | 3.3% | 50 | TRIM -25.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC | $66.2 Mil | 7.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Shapiro Capital Management LLC | $53.4 Mil | 3.3% | 50 | TRIM -25.1% | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $20.4 Mil | 5.1% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Vienna Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne S.A. Vienna Insurance Group | $11.8 Mil | 4.5% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
DECK Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The business operates a powerful two-brand model with industry-best 23.1% operating margins and aggressive, fully-funded buybacks. Conviction is constructive but awaits confirmation that HOKA's recent growth slowdown to 8% was temporary, per management's guidance for a second-half re-acceleration.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Branded Consumer Goods(Volume of units sold) x (Average Selling Price) Gross Margin, driven by the mix of full-price vs. promotional sales, channel mix (higher-margin DTC vs. wholesale), and brand pricing power.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests the recent slowdown was a timing issue, not a structural break, with a guided return to stronger growth in the second half.
- Management guides for HOKA to return to low double digits growth.
- UGG brand provides a stable base, growing 5% in the latest quarter.
- Inventory declined 5% year-over-year, supporting pricing and gross margins.
- The company spent $1.1 billion on share repurchases in the last year.
PRIMARY RISK
The recent slowdown in HOKA's growth to 8% may signal brand maturation and intensifying competition, not a temporary shipment timing issue as management claims.
- HOKA's Q1 growth of 8% is a sharp slowdown from prior periods.
- Q2 consolidated revenue guidance is soft at approximately 5% growth.
- Competitor On is growing much faster, with 23% TTM revenue growth.
- The consumer backdrop is described by management as 'pressured'.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| HOKA Brand Revenue Growth | 8% year-over-year growth in Q1 FY2027 - Decelerating | Management attributed the significant slowdown to "planned international shipment timing differences moving later this year" and guided for an acceleration in the second half of the fiscal year. The deceleration was driven by a modest 3% increase in the wholesale channel, while the direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel remained strong with 17% growth. |
| UGG Brand Revenue Growth | 5% year-over-year growth in Q1 FY2027 - Stable | Growth in the latest quarter was balanced across channels, with DTC growing 6% and wholesale growing 5%. Management highlighted progress in its initiatives to make UGG a year-round brand ('365') and expand its men's business, which accounted for the largest portion of incremental revenue. |
| Inventory vs. Revenue Growth Divergence | -11.3 percentage points (Q1 FY2027 (ended 2026-06-30)) | A negative divergence (inventory growing slower than revenue) indicates strong demand, efficient inventory management, and supports the company's "pull model" strategy, which helps maintain pricing power and high gross margins. |
| International Revenue Growth | 26.8% YoY (Fiscal Year 2026) | Measures the success of the company's geographic expansion strategy, a key pillar for long-term growth for both HOKA and UGG. |
HOKA's H2 Rebound vs. Structural Slowdown
BULL VIEW
Management's guidance for a second-half acceleration is credible, driven by international wholesale shipments. Their strong execution track record and clean inventory position support this view, making the Q1 slowdown a temporary blip.
CORE TENSION
Can guided H2 acceleration offset Q1's 8% HOKA growth and a soft Q2 outlook?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest data is mixed, but management's consistent history of exceeding guidance lends credibility to their explanation of temporary shipment timing, favoring the bull case pending confirmation.
BEAR VIEW
The slowdown to 8% growth is the start of a new trend. Soft Q2 guidance for ~5% consolidated growth confirms momentum has stalled amid a pressured consumer environment and fierce competition.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
9/28/2026 | Weakening Consumer Environment Watch: Commentary on consumer discretionary spending and traffic from peer Nike's earnings report, which precedes Deckers'. |
10/21/2026 | HOKA Growth Deceleration Watch: Whether HOKA's Q2 results and Q3 outlook confirm a re-acceleration or show persistent single-digit growth. |
10/21/2026 | Near-Term Margin Contraction Watch: The magnitude of the Q2 gross margin decline and any change to the full-year margin outlook. |
11/10/2026 | Peer On Earnings Report Watch: Peer On (ONON) is scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-23 | Q1 FY27 Earnings Miss Details: The company reported Q1 FY27 results, surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time. However, the stock reacted negatively with a -6.0% two-day change. | -6.3% $102.47 -> $96.04 |
2026-06-26 | Company Named 'Stock to Study' Details: A press report in June noted that BetterInvesting Magazine announced Deckers Outdoor as its "Stock to Study" in its September 2026 issue. | -1.3% $102.59 -> $101.28 |
2026-05-21 | Q4 Earnings and FY27 Outlook Details: The company reported Q4 and full-year FY26 results, providing an upbeat annual outlook for FY27. The stock reacted with a 9.0% two-day gain. | +8.6% $98.24 -> $106.67 |
2026-04-27 | Positive Analyst Commentary Noted Details: A press report in April noted an analyst view that the stock was poised for upside as HOKA growth comparisons ease and FY27 guidance approaches. | -2.2% $108.53 -> $106.18 |
2026-03-12 | UGG Spring Collections Launched Details: The UGG brand launched new spring styles, including the Golden Collection of sandals and clogs, and the Heritage Utility sneaker collection. | -1.9% $102.72 -> $100.78 |
2026-02-01 | HOKA Speedgoat 7 Unveiled Details: HOKA introduced the Speedgoat 7, the next evolution of one of its most celebrated trail running franchises. | +16.4% $99.90 -> $116.25 |
2026-01-29 | Strong Q3 Earnings Report Details: The company reported strong Q3 results, leading to a raised FY2026 guidance. The stock reacted with a 22.0% two-day gain. | +22.2% $97.62 -> $119.34 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: DECK trades at roughly 39% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.6x the market), around the 32nd percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
NKE - Nike
Incumbent Scale PlayNike offers exposure to the largest player in the industry, with revenue 8.5 times that of Deckers, providing unparalleled scale and diversification across geographies and product categories.
ONON - On
Hyper-Growth CompetitorOn provides exposure to a faster-growing competitor in performance footwear, with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 23%, more than double that of Deckers.
A premium footwear duopoly leveraging two distinct, powerful brands (HOKA for performance growth, UGG for lifestyle profit) to drive industry-leading margins and shareholder returns.
Deckers operates two multi-billion dollar brands, HOKA and UGG, that dominate their respective niches. HOKA is the high-growth engine, rapidly gaining global share in performance running and expanding into lifestyle. The iconic UGG brand provides a massive, highly profitable foundation, successfully diversifying into year-round products. Management's disciplined "pull model"—keeping supply tight to fuel demand and full-price sales—results in best-in-class profitability and strong cash flow, which is aggressively returned to shareholders via buybacks.
HOKA maintaining low double digits growth, particularly internationally. UGG successfully expanding its men's and year-round product lines. Gross margins remaining stable or expanding. Continued negative divergence between inventory and revenue growth.
Sustained deceleration of HOKA's growth into the single digits. Evidence of widespread discounting or brand fatigue for UGG. A significant decline in gross margins. Inventory growth outpacing sales growth for multiple quarters.
Quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in wholesale shipment timing, which management frequently flags as not indicative of underlying consumer demand.
Repricing Catalyst
Continued execution on the multi-year growth framework, including HOKA's market share gains and UGG's category expansion, leading to sustained double-digit EPS growth fueled by high margins and significant share repurchases.
UGG
$2.7B TTM (50% of Total) · 38% MarginWhat It Is
Sells a line of premium footwear, apparel, and accessories to a broad global demographic. The brand is known for products that provide comfort, softness, and warmth, and has expanded from its iconic boot to year-round offerings including sneakers and sandals.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and retailers pay for the iconic, resilient, and consumer-focused fashion lifestyle brand. High consumer loyalty is driven by the brand's reputation for luxurious comfort, quality, and its ability to resonate with fashionable consumers through strategic marketing and collaborations.
Competition
HOKA
$2.6B TTM (47% of Total) · 35% MarginWhat It Is
Sells a premium line of year-round performance and lifestyle footwear, apparel, and accessories. Originally for ultra-runners, the brand now appeals to a broad range of athletes and consumers with products offering enhanced cushioning and stability with minimal weight.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and retailers pay for leading performance product innovation that provides a distinctive experience. The brand has a deep connection to its community and is expanding into lifestyle categories, attracting a broader, more diverse consumer base.
Competition
Other Brands
$146M TTM (3% of Total) · 11% MarginWhat It Is
This segment primarily consists of the Teva brand, which sells footwear for a range of outdoor pursuits. It also includes the financial results from the phased-out Koolaburra and AHNU brands, and the previously sold Sanuk brand.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and retailers in the outdoor and premium retail channels pay for Teva's products, which are built for outdoor pursuits and emphasize the brand's outdoor-adventure heritage.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Footwear Resources |
| Footwear News |
| Sneaker News |
| Sole Collector |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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