Casey's General Stores (CASY)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $557.66 | Market Cap: $20.7 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail
Casey's General Stores (CASY)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $557.66Market Cap: $20.7 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2% | Key risksCASY key risks include [1] significant margin pressure from its heavy dependence on volatile fuel sales and [2] a long-term structural threat to fuel demand from the consumer shift toward electric vehicles. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Online Grocery Platforms, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Online Grocery Platforms, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2% |
| Key risksCASY key risks include [1] significant margin pressure from its heavy dependence on volatile fuel sales and [2] a long-term structural threat to fuel demand from the consumer shift toward electric vehicles. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CASY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For Casey's General Stores (CASY), the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025, saw several key developments that contributed to positive stock movement. While a precise 13.1% single-day movement within this exact window is not explicitly detailed, the company experienced strong financial performance and positive market sentiment that would drive significant appreciation during this time. The most prominent factors include:
1. Strong Fiscal Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results: Casey's General Stores reported robust financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, which ended October 31, 2025, and were announced on December 9, 2025. The company's diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.53 significantly surpassed analysts' consensus estimates of $4.92, representing a 14.0% increase from the prior year. Net income also grew by 14.0% to $206.3 million, and EBITDA rose by 17.5% to $410.1 million.
2. Upbeat Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: Following its strong second-quarter performance, Casey's updated its fiscal year 2026 outlook, projecting an increase in EBITDA of 15% to 17%. The company also anticipated inside same-store sales to grow between 3% and 4%, signaling continued positive momentum.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CASY Return | 13% | 11% | 14% | 23% | 45% | 39% | 258% |
| Peers Return | � | 46% | 3% | 22% | 36% | -0% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CASY Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 67% | 67% | 75% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 65% | 48% | 67% | 57% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CASY Max Drawdown | -24% | -1% | -13% | -8% | -1% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -9% | -17% | -6% | -5% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MUSA, KR, ACI, WMT, COST. See CASY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CASY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 233 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 208 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MPC, MUSA, WMK, IMKTA, KR
In The Past
Casey's General Stores's stock fell -24.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2021. A -24.1% loss requires a 31.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CASY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.3% | 10.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.3% | 10.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Casey's General Stores
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 259.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 30.8 |
| Rev LTM | 114,298 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,557 |
| FCF LTM | 1,476 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,428 |
| CFO LTM | 4,325 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,371 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 30.8 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 25.3 |
| P/E | 37.0 |
| P/CFO | 13.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 71.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/9/2025 | -5.3% | -1.9% | |
| 9/8/2025 | 3.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 6/9/2025 | 11.6% | 15.3% | 17.6% |
| 3/11/2025 | 6.2% | 2.2% | 16.1% |
| 12/9/2024 | -0.3% | 1.5% | -7.7% |
| 9/4/2024 | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% |
| 6/11/2024 | 16.7% | 15.4% | 15.3% |
| 3/11/2024 | -1.6% | 2.1% | 4.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -5.2% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 16.7% | 17.6% | 18.1% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -15.1% | -19.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12092025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9082025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6232025 | 10-K 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3112025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12092024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9042024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6242024 | 10-K 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3112024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12112023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9112023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6232023 | 10-K 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3072023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12062022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9072022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6242022 | 10-K 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3082022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |