AerCap (AER)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $133.31 | Market Cap: $22.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors
AerCap (AER)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $133.31
Market Cap: $22.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13% | Trading close to highs Dist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% | Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 185% |
| Attractive operating margins Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% | Not cash flow generative FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.0% | |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, CFO LTM is 5.5 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Aviation. Themes include Global Commercial Aviation, and Fleet Efficiency & Modernization. |
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13% |
| Attractive operating margins Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, CFO LTM is 5.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Aviation. Themes include Global Commercial Aviation, and Fleet Efficiency & Modernization. |
| Trading close to highs Dist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% |
| Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 185% |
| Not cash flow generative FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.0% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
AER Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining AerCap's stock movement from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025:
1. AerCap reported record financial results for the third quarter of 2025 and raised its full-year earnings per share guidance. The company announced record adjusted net income of $865 million, or $4.97 per share, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations, and increased its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $13.70.
2. The company continued to secure substantial insurance recoveries related to assets lost in the Ukraine conflict. AerCap recovered an additional $475 million in the third quarter of 2025, bringing total recoveries since 2023 to $2.9 billion. This was bolstered by a London court ruling in June 2025, awarding AerCap over $1 billion against insurers for these losses, along with approximately $234 million in interest awarded in September 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AER Return | -26% | 44% | -11% | 27% | 30% | 40% | 120% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 29% | -6% | 32% | 12% | -9% | 93% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AER Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 35% | 22% | 38% | 40% | 39% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AER Max Drawdown | -75% | -16% | -42% | -14% | -5% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -1% | -19% | -5% | -8% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WSO, UHAL, MWG, TLIH, URI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AER | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 513 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -75.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 314.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 581 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 304 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1678.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1743 days | 1480 days |
Compare to WSO, UHAL, MWG, TLIH, URI
In The Past
AerCap's stock fell -45.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -45.1% loss requires a 82.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| AER Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| AerCap (AER) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| null | |||
| AerCap (AER) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| AerCap (AER) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| AerCap (AER) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| AerCap (AER) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Better Value & Growth: AER Leads WESCO International Stock | November 13th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AER. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AerCap
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 91.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.8 |
| Rev LTM | 7,880 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,699 |
| FCF LTM | 143 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -5 |
| CFO LTM | 3,301 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,172 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.8 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 14.1 |
| P/E | 22.5 |
| P/CFO | 8.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 80.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 11.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7312023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5172022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3302022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.