Tearsheet

AerCap (AER)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $133.31 | Market Cap: $22.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

AerCap (AER)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $133.31
Market Cap: $22.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 185%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.0%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, CFO LTM is 5.5 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Aviation. Themes include Global Commercial Aviation, and Fleet Efficiency & Modernization.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, CFO LTM is 5.5 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Aviation. Themes include Global Commercial Aviation, and Fleet Efficiency & Modernization.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 185%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.0%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

AER Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining AerCap's stock movement from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025: 1. AerCap reported record financial results for the third quarter of 2025 and raised its full-year earnings per share guidance. The company announced record adjusted net income of $865 million, or $4.97 per share, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations, and increased its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $13.70.

2. The company continued to secure substantial insurance recoveries related to assets lost in the Ukraine conflict. AerCap recovered an additional $475 million in the third quarter of 2025, bringing total recoveries since 2023 to $2.9 billion. This was bolstered by a London court ruling in June 2025, awarding AerCap over $1 billion against insurers for these losses, along with approximately $234 million in interest awarded in September 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AER Return-26%44%-11%27%30%40%120%
Peers Return18%29%-6%32%12%-9%93%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AER Win Rate42%67%33%67%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate33%35%22%38%40%39% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AER Max Drawdown-75%-16%-42%-14%-5%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-23%-1%-19%-5%-8%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WSO, UHAL, MWG, TLIH, URI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAERS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-45.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven513 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-75.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven314.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven581 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-36.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven57.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven304 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-94.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1678.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1743 days1480 days

Compare to WSO, UHAL, MWG, TLIH, URI


In The Past

AerCap's stock fell -45.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -45.1% loss requires a 82.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AerCap (AER)

Better Bets than AerCap (AER)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AER. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%-10.3%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.4%-3.4%-4.8%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.1%-7.1%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%-10.3%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.4%-3.4%-4.8%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.1%-7.1%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AerCap

Financials

AERWSOUHALMWGTLIHURIMedian
NameAerCap Watsco U-Haul Multi Wa.Ten-Leag.United R. 
Mkt Price132.97337.9249.180.260.39806.6191.08
Mkt Cap22.812.89.6--51.817.8
Rev LTM8,3457,4145,972--15,9867,880
Op Inc LTM2,663734700--4,0091,699
FCF LTM-163517-1,820--450143
FCF 3Y Avg-455540-1,717--446-5
CFO LTM5,4575491,620--4,9823,301
CFO 3Y Avg5,4745731,533--4,8123,172

Growth & Margins

AERWSOUHALMWGTLIHURIMedian
NameAerCap Watsco U-Haul Multi Wa.Ten-Leag.United R. 
Rev Chg LTM6.7%-0.7%5.9%--6.7%6.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.5%1.0%0.5%--13.2%4.7%
Rev Chg Q18.5%-4.3%3.7%--5.9%4.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%-1.2%1.0%--1.5%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM31.9%9.9%11.7%--25.1%18.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg28.6%10.2%16.6%--26.5%21.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM5.5%-0.1%-0.6%---0.4%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM65.4%7.4%27.1%--31.2%29.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg69.3%7.7%26.5%--32.2%29.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.0%7.0%-30.5%--2.8%0.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-5.8%7.3%-29.6%--2.9%-1.4%

Valuation

AERWSOUHALMWGTLIHURIMedian
NameAerCap Watsco U-Haul Multi Wa.Ten-Leag.United R. 
Mkt Cap22.812.89.6--51.817.8
P/S2.71.71.6--3.22.2
P/EBIT8.617.415.5--12.714.1
P/E6.024.541.4--20.522.5
P/CFO4.223.36.0--10.48.2
Total Yield17.5%7.7%2.8%--5.8%6.7%
Dividend Yield0.8%3.6%0.4%--0.9%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.6%3.4%-14.2%--0.9%-0.9%
D/E1.90.00.8--0.30.5
Net D/E1.9-0.00.6--0.30.4

Returns

AERWSOUHALMWGTLIHURIMedian
NameAerCap Watsco U-Haul Multi Wa.Ten-Leag.United R. 
1M Rtn10.6%-8.9%-11.4%-6.5%-15.2%-17.6%-10.1%
3M Rtn16.3%-18.7%-15.1%23.0%-45.8%-11.6%-13.3%
6M Rtn17.3%-29.8%-24.5%-11.5%-11.9%-11.5%
12M Rtn40.9%-33.4%-28.6%10.7%--2.7%-2.7%
3Y Rtn128.1%32.9%-14.2%--140.9%80.5%
1M Excs Rtn10.5%-9.0%-11.5%-6.6%-15.4%-17.7%-10.2%
3M Excs Rtn11.6%-23.9%-20.8%18.1%-42.7%-15.8%-18.3%
6M Excs Rtn5.5%-41.6%-36.4%-23.4%--0.0%-23.4%
12M Excs Rtn30.4%-47.6%-42.4%-5.3%--16.7%-16.7%
3Y Excs Rtn62.3%-38.7%-74.1%--72.8%11.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Commercial Flight Equipment Segment6,860    
Basic lease rents 5,9823,8913,7624,281
Maintenance rents and other receipts 549521559401
Total6,8606,5314,4124,3214,682


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,216,650
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520258.7%
Average Daily Volume1,297,470
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.48
Basic Shares Quantity171,483,556
Short % of Basic Shares1.9%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025102920256-K 9/30/2025
630202573020256-K 6/30/2025
331202543020256-K 3/31/2025
12312024226202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024103020246-K 9/30/2024
630202480120246-K 6/30/2024
331202450120246-K 3/31/2024
12312023223202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023102720236-K 9/30/2023
630202373120236-K 6/30/2023
331202350220236-K 3/31/2023
12312022302202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022110320226-K 9/30/2022
630202281120226-K 6/30/2022
331202251720226-K 3/31/2022
12312021330202220-F 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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