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We Forecast Higher Stock Return For Amazon vs. Exxon Mobil

XOMAMZN Market Cap$360 Bil$1.1 TrilLTM Revenue$286 Bil$470 BilCurrent P/S1.22.3Current P/EBIT-6.057.0Stock Return Forecast (3Y)18%76%

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

3-Year Return Depends On [1] Revenue Growth [2] P/S

XOMAMZN LTM Revenue$286 Bil$470 Bilx Revenue Growth [1]9.1%16.2%= Revenue Forecast (3Y)$371 Bil$738 Bil x P/S [2]1.12.6 = Market Cap Forecast (3Y)$408 Bil$1.9 TrilMarket Cap Today$360 Bil$1.1 Tril Stock Return Forecast (3Y)18%76%

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

[1] How Much Can Revenue Grow In Next 3 Years

Past revenue growth metrics that form basis of our expectation

XOMAMZN Recent Quarter Growth82.6%9.4%LTM Growth57.4%21.7%Growth During Covid-31.5%37.6%Pre-Covid Annual Growth10.5%27.4% Annual Growth Forecast9.1%16.2%

(a) LTM = Last 12 months (b) Growth During Covid = Year 2020 growth

(b) Recent quarter growth refers to growth in recent quarter vs. the same quarter one year ago, commonly referred to as y-o-y growth

Exxon Mobil Revenue vs. Amazon Revenue

XOM Revenue History & 3Y Forecast (30% cumulative growth)

AMZN Revenue History & 3Y Forecast (57% cumulative growth)

Note: The years shown in the charts above are fiscal years. => For XOM, FY2021 refers to the fiscal year ending Dec 31, 2021 => For AMZN, FY2021 refers to the fiscal year ending Dec 31, 2021

[2] Which P/S Scenarios Make Sense

P/S Scenarios & Corresponding 3-Year Returns (in brackets)

P/S & Return ScenariosXOMAMZN Current1.2 (29%)2.3 (57%)Expansion1.4 (39%)2.5 (68%)Contraction1.1 (18%)2.2 (47%)Pre-Covid0.8 (-17%)3.5 (132%)Historical Average1.2 (22%)NA Scenario Average1.1 (18%)2.6 (76%)"Current" refers to ratio as of 5/10/2022

Note: Expansion/contraction considered from current / current('adjusted) P/S levels; NA imples invalid scenario because of extreme unsustainable values

Exxon Mobil P/S vs. Amazon P/S

XOM P/S Ratio History

AMZN P/S Ratio History

P/S Ratio

Market RatiosXOMAMZN Current P/S1.22.3Current P/EBIT-6.057.0

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

Revenue Growth & Operating Margin

Financial MetricsXOMAMZN Revenue GrowthLast Q Sequential15.2%24%Last Q YoY82.6%9.4%LTM57.4%21.7%Last 3 FY5.7%26.6% MarginsLTM Op Margins10.8%5.3%LTM Margin Change vs Last 3 FY10.1%-0.2%FCF Margin16.8%9.9%

(a) YoY = year-on-year (b) LTM = Last 12 months (c) FY = fiscal year

XOM Operating Income AMZN Operating Income

Financial & Market Risk

Risk MetricsXOMAMZN Financial RiskDebt as % of Equity13.2%8.8%Cash as % of Assets2.0%22.8% Market RiskMax Drawdown Last 3Y-58.9%-11.3%

(a) Last 3Y = Last 3 years

Note On P/S Justification

=> Stock prices deviate from fair value for extended periods of time based on momentum, macro economy, liquidity, and other factors

=> Therefore, our P/S scenarios does not take into account fairness of current values, and we assign equal probability to all scenarios

=> However, relative assessment of P/S in context of growth, margins and risk, can shed light on likelihood of different P/S scenarios

Past Market Return Comparison vs. Benchmarks

Compare Returns With Benchmark & Trefis Portfolio

201720182019202020212022Total [1]AvgBestReturns XOM Return-7%-18%2%-41%48%38%-6% AMZN Return56%28%23%76%2%-35%190% S&P 500 Return19%-6%29%16%27%-16%78% Trefis MS Portfolio Return23%-2%34%68%46%-23%205% <---Monthly Win Rates [3] XOM Win Rate42%42%58%25%75%80% 54% AMZN Win Rate67%67%58%67%50%40% 58% S&P 500 Win Rate92%67%83%58%75%20% 66%<---Trefis Portfolio Win Rate89%58%75%58%83%20% 64% Max Drawdowns [4] XOM Max Drawdown-16%-22%-2%-55%0%0% -16% AMZN Max Drawdown0%0%-0%-9%-9%-31% -8%<---S&P 500 Max Drawdown0%-12%-2%-31%-1%-16% -10%<---Trefis Portfolio Max Drawdown-4%-24%-11%-38%-14%-16% -18% [1] Cumulative total returns since 2017[2] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive[3] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year

XOM Stock Return AMZN Stock Return

Compare Returns With Relevant Investment Themes That Give Similar Market & Capitalization Exposure

Exxon Mobil

Amazon

=> Inflation Stocks => Mega Cap Stocks

=> Crypto Stocks => E-Commerce Stocks => Beauty Stocks => Mega Cap Stocks

FAQ

[1] Why Are We Comparing Exxon Mobil And Amazon?

We compare stocks which share one or more similar characteristicsThis is because the decision to invest often come down to finding the best stocks within the ambit of certain characteristics that suit an investment styleWe compare Exxon Mobil vs. Amazon because ,

[2] How Do We Arrive At A Decision?

We favor stocks that offer meaningfully greater expected return in the next 3 yearsThese returns are calculated based on our revenue forecast and Price to Sales Ratio (P/S) scenarios consideredSimilar Price To Sales Ratio (P/S) scenarios are considered for both stocks and each scenario is weighted equally for a given stock

[3] How Do We Forecast Revenue?

We have different methodologies for companies negatively impacted by Covid, and for companies not impacted or positively impacted by CovidDifferent methodologies are essential to capture recovery in case of negative impactFor companies negatively impacted by covid, we consider quarterly revenue recovery trajectory to forecast recovery to pre-covid revenue run rate, and beyond recovery point, we apply average annual growth observed in 3 years prior to covid to simulate return to normal conditionsFor companies registering positive revenue growth during covid, we consider average annual growth prior to covid with certain weightage to growth during covid and last 12 months

[4] Can I See More Such Comparisons For Exxon Mobil And Amazon Peers

Here are some comparisons that you may find useful for Exxon Mobil and AmazonExxon Mobil vs. Chevron: With Return Forecast Of 19%, Exxon Mobil Is A Better BetExxon Mobil vs. ConocoPhillips: Both Seem Similar BetsAmazon vs. Microsoft: Industry Competitors, But Amazon Is A Better BetAmazon vs. Apple: Industry Peers, But Amazon Is A Better Bet Find all such comparisons on Exxon Mobil Peer Comparisons and Amazon Peer Comparisons

Exxon Mobil and Amazon Insights

Exxon Mobil investment ideasExxon Mobil counter-intuitive comparisonExxon Mobil peer comparisonComplete analyses on Exxon Mobil (XOM) stockLatest analyses on all stocks

Amazon investment ideasAmazon counter-intuitive comparisonAmazon peer comparisonComplete analyses on Amazon (AMZN) stockLatest analyses on all stocks

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