Warby Parker (WRBY)
Market Price (2/14/2026): $22.19 | Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Warby Parker (WRBY)
Market Price (2/14/2026): $22.19Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -21% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.9 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 3,852x | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2% | ||
| Key risksWRBY key risks include [1] its history of net losses driven by persistently high marketing and administrative expenses. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -21% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.9 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 3,852x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2% |
| Key risksWRBY key risks include [1] its history of net losses driven by persistently high marketing and administrative expenses. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Solid Q3 2025 Performance and Optimistic Full-Year Outlook. Warby Parker announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, reporting a 15.2% year-over-year increase in net revenue to $221.7 million. The company also experienced approximately 50% growth in Adjusted EBITDA to $25.7 million. Although earnings per share missed analyst estimates, the strong revenue and EBITDA performance, coupled with updated full-year 2025 guidance projecting continued revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, signaled underlying business strength and operational efficiency to investors.
2. Favorable Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Upgrades. Throughout the period, Warby Parker received numerous positive evaluations from financial analysts. In December 2025, several firms, including BTIG, Stifel, and Piper Sandler, upgraded their ratings or significantly raised their price targets for WRBY stock. This trend of increased confidence continued into February 2026, with Telsey Advisory Group reaffirming an "Outperform" rating and maintaining a $32.00 price target. This collective positive analyst outlook and higher price targets likely contributed to increased investor interest and upward stock momentum.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.7% change in WRBY stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.59 | 22.46 | 14.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 821 | 851 | 3.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.9 | 3.2 | 11.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 123 | 123 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WRBY | 14.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.0% | 36.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 9.3% | 31.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.2% change in WRBY stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.95 | 22.46 | -6.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 795 | 851 | 7.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.7 | 3.2 | -11.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 122 | 123 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WRBY | -6.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.2% | 37.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 21.4% | 33.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.9% change in WRBY stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.71 | 22.46 | -18.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 743 | 851 | 14.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.5 | 3.2 | -28.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 121 | 123 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WRBY | -18.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.3% | 48.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 8.8% | 36.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 39.1% change in WRBY stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.15 | 22.46 | 39.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 585 | 851 | 45.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 115 | 123 | -6.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 39.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WRBY | 39.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 45.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 23.7% | 31.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WRBY Return | -15% | -71% | 5% | 72% | -10% | -2% | -61% |
| Peers Return | 11% | -21% | -7% | -16% | 44% | 2% | 0% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WRBY Win Rate | 25% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 47% | 50% | 44% | 56% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WRBY Max Drawdown | -21% | -76% | -28% | -19% | -42% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -42% | -25% | -28% | -23% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EYE, BLCO, COO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WRBY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 514.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to EYE, BLCO, COO
In The Past
Warby Parker's stock fell -83.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -83.7% loss requires a 514.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Warby Parker (WRBY)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Warby Parker:
- Warby Parker is like the Dollar Shave Club for eyeglasses.
- Warby Parker is like Casper for eyeglasses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Eyeglasses: Offers a wide selection of prescription glasses for vision correction, available in various styles, materials, and lens types.
- Sunglasses: Provides both prescription and non-prescription sunglasses for UV protection and style, featuring their own designs and a range of tints.
- Contact Lenses: Sells daily and monthly disposable contact lenses from major brands, including their proprietary brand, Scout by Warby Parker.
- Eye Exams: Conducts comprehensive eye exams performed by optometrists in their retail locations to determine prescriptions and assess overall eye health.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Warby Parker (WRBY) primarily sells directly to individuals rather than to other businesses. As a direct-to-consumer (DTC) brand, its major customers are the end-users of its products.
The company serves the following categories of individual customers:
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Customers seeking prescription eyeglasses: This category includes individuals who require vision correction and purchase eyeglasses for daily wear, reading, computer use, and other activities. This represents a significant portion of Warby Parker's customer base, drawn to its stylish designs, home try-on program, and competitive pricing.
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Customers seeking sunglasses (prescription or non-prescription): This segment comprises individuals looking for sun protection, a fashion accessory, or prescription-grade sunglasses for outdoor vision correction. Warby Parker offers a wide range of sunglasses to cater to various styles and needs.
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Customers seeking contact lenses: Through its "Scout by Warby Parker" brand and other offerings, the company also serves individuals who prefer contact lenses for vision correction. This category includes those who use contact lenses exclusively or in conjunction with eyeglasses.
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Neil Blumenthal Co-CEO
Neil Blumenthal co-founded Warby Parker in 2010 while he was an MBA student at the Wharton School. Before launching Warby Parker, he served as the Director of VisionSpring, a non-profit social enterprise focused on providing affordable eyeglasses in developing countries. He holds a BA from Tufts University and an MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is recognized as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum.
Dave Gilboa Co-CEO
Dave Gilboa co-founded Warby Parker in 2010 while he was an MBA student at the Wharton School. Prior to Warby Parker, he worked as an associate at the merchant bank Allen & Company, where he invested in seed-stage and venture-stage healthcare and digital media companies and advised on M&A transactions. He also gained experience at Bain & Company, developing business strategies for leading retail and technology firms. He is a founding member of the Entrepreneur Board of Venture for America. Gilboa earned a B.S. in bioengineering from UC Berkeley and an MBA from the Wharton School.
Steven Miller Chief Financial Officer
Steven Miller has served as Warby Parker's Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer since 2011. He played a key role in managing the company's funding rounds and its direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange in September 2021. Before joining Warby Parker, Miller was the CFO and Senior Vice President of Corporate Development for Majestic Research, a data-driven research firm, where he successfully led the sale of the company to ITG (now part of Virtu Financial). He also worked as a Vice President in Comerica Bank's Technology and Life Sciences Division, focusing on venture capital and private equity lending, and began his career as a strategy consultant at Monitor Company. Miller holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science from Columbia University. He is expected to become the Executive Vice President and CFO of Monumental Sports & Entertainment effective October 2, 2025.
Lon Binder Chief Technology Officer
Lon Binder is the Chief Technology Officer at Warby Parker. He is described as an entrepreneur with nearly two decades of experience, known for building strong cultures and driving growth in startups and growth-stage companies.
Kimberly Nemser Chief Merchandising Officer, Head of Product Strategy
Kimberly Nemser holds the position of Chief Merchandising Officer and Head of Product Strategy at Warby Parker. She previously served as the Vice President of Product Strategy, overseeing merchandising, planning, and product development.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Warby Parker's (WRBY) business include:
- Intense Competition and Market Saturation: The optical industry is highly competitive, with both established brands and new direct-to-consumer entrants vying for market share. This competition can lead to pricing pressures and make it challenging for Warby Parker to maintain or grow its market position and customer base.
- Profitability Challenges: Despite experiencing revenue growth, Warby Parker has a history of operating at a net loss. The company allocates significant funds to marketing and selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, which have historically accounted for a large portion of its total revenue, impacting its profitability. Achieving sustained profitability remains a critical concern.
- Supply Chain and Operational Risks: Warby Parker faces risks related to its supply chain, including potential increases in component costs, shipping expenses, long lead times, and supply shortages. Factors such as wage rate increases, inflation, and the impact of tariffs on products sourced from countries like China can disrupt operations and materially affect the company's financial results and gross margins.
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One clear emerging threat for Warby Parker is the development and increasing adoption of pharmaceutical solutions for vision correction. An example of this is Vuity (pilocarpine hydrochloride ophthalmic solution), an FDA-approved prescription eye drop designed to treat presbyopia (age-related farsightedness). If such drug-based treatments continue to advance in efficacy, broaden their scope to correct other refractive errors, and become widely adopted, they could significantly reduce or eliminate the need for traditional corrective eyewear, such as glasses and contact lenses, for a growing segment of the population. This represents a fundamental shift in how vision correction could be achieved, directly challenging the core product offerings of Warby Parker.
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Warby Parker's primary products and services include prescription eyeglasses, sunglasses, contact lenses, and eye exams. The addressable markets for these offerings fall under the broader eyewear market.
U.S. Eyewear Market:
- The U.S. eyewear market was valued at approximately $68 billion. Other estimates for the U.S. eyewear market include $37.98 billion in 2023, expected to reach $41.12 billion in 2024, and $45.50 billion in 2024, projected to grow to $69.05 billion by 2032.
Global Eyewear Market:
- The global eyewear market was valued at approximately $200.46 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $335.90 billion by 2030. Other sources estimate the global market size at $169.6 billion in 2024, expected to reach $285.9 billion by 2033, and around $200 billion in 2024, with an expectation to reach approximately $222 billion in 2025.
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Warby Parker (WRBY) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
- Continued Retail Store Expansion: Warby Parker plans to significantly expand its physical footprint. The company opened 15 net new stores in the third quarter of 2025, reaching a total of 313 locations, and is on track to open 45 new stores for the full year 2025. Management believes there is potential for more than 900 stores in the long term, indicating substantial room for growth in brick-and-mortar retail. This expansion is a primary driver for customer acquisition and retail revenue growth.
- Accelerated Active Customer Growth: The company has demonstrated consistent growth in its active customer base, reporting its eighth consecutive quarter of accelerating active customer growth as of Q2 and Q3 2025. In Q3 2025, active customers increased by 9.3% year-over-year to 2.66 million. This growth is fueled by marketing investments and the expansion of its retail presence.
- Increase in Average Revenue Per Customer (ARPC): Warby Parker has been successful in increasing the average revenue generated from each customer. In Q3 2025, average revenue per customer rose 4.8% year-over-year to $320. This increase is attributed to factors such as selective price adjustments for glasses, a higher penetration of premium lenses like progressives, and continued growth in contact lens and eye exam sales.
- Expansion of Vision Care Offerings: The company is diversifying its product and service portfolio beyond traditional prescription glasses. There has been strong growth in contact lens sales, which increased by 21% year-over-year in Q3 2025, and eye exam services, which grew by 41% year-over-year in the same period. Growth in its insurance business also contributes to higher-value customers who tend to spend more and return more frequently.
- Innovation through AI and Intelligent Eyewear: Warby Parker views "innovation through AI" as a central component of its future strategy, referred to as its "third act." The company is focused on creating new products, such as "AI glasses," and enhancing the overall customer experience through AI-driven innovations. Strategic partnerships, including those with Google and Samsung for intelligent eyewear, are expected to significantly expand Warby Parker's addressable market.
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Share Issuance
- Warby Parker went public via a direct listing on September 29, 2021.
- At the time of its direct listing, registered stockholders planned to sell up to 77.7 million Class A shares.
- Stock-based compensation has led to dilution, with outstanding shares diluted by approximately 6% from the end of 2021 to the first quarter of 2024, and the share count increasing by 3 million from 2023 to 2024.
Inbound Investments
- In 2020, Warby Parker raised $245 million through Series F and Series G funding rounds, which valued the company at $3 billion.
- The Series F round in April 2020 was led by Durable Capital Partners, and the Series G round in August 2020 was led by D1 Capital Partners.
- Google committed up to $75 million for product development and commercialization costs, alongside a potential investment of up to $75 million in Warby Parker, as part of a partnership announced in May 2025 for AI glasses.
Capital Expenditures
- Warby Parker's capital expenditures were -$64 million in 2024.
- The company plans to open 45 new stores in 2025, including five shop-in-shops at select Target locations, as part of its retail footprint expansion strategy.
- Capital expenditure expectations are slightly higher for the next couple of years due to continued store expansion.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 3,007 |
| Op Inc LTM | 83 |
| FCF LTM | 60 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 40 |
| CFO LTM | 166 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 160 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 49.5 |
| P/E | 12.0 |
| P/CFO | 23.2 |
| Total Yield | -0.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 17.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -0.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -67.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $22.46 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/29/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -25.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $25.33 | $23.08 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -11.3% | -2.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 94.9% | 69.7% |
| Downside Capture | 204.31 | 200.46 |
| Upside Capture | 350.26 | 159.78 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 36.4% | 49.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.90 | 3.06 | 2.61 | 2.23 | 1.71 | 1.73 |
| Up Beta | 3.14 | 6.34 | 3.36 | 2.37 | 1.81 | 1.75 |
| Down Beta | 3.07 | 3.24 | 2.67 | 2.42 | 1.63 | 1.62 |
| Up Capture | 231% | 430% | 383% | 226% | 193% | 621% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 29 | 57 | 111 | 364 |
| Down Capture | -122% | 70% | 166% | 198% | 139% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 22 | 32 | 68 | 137 | 379 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WRBY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRBY | -11.9% | 69.7% | 0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.6% | 17.4% | 0.37 | 36.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 19.4% | 0.55 | 49.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.3% | 25.3% | 2.17 | 2.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.0% | 16.7% | 0.24 | 18.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.9% | 16.6% | 0.28 | 36.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.2% | 44.7% | -0.73 | 32.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WRBY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRBY | -15.8% | 65.3% | -0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.0% | 14.5% | 0.37 | 33.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 51.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.0% | 1.06 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.5% | 18.9% | 0.44 | 12.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 40.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.6% | 57.1% | 0.35 | 28.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WRBY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRBY | -8.2% | 65.3% | -0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 11.2% | 16.5% | 0.56 | 33.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 51.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 17.6% | 0.38 | 12.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.4% | 20.7% | 0.27 | 40.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 28.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -11.1% | -8.2% | 11.6% |
| 8/7/2025 | -3.4% | 10.3% | 7.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 2.8% | 8.2% | 33.5% |
| 2/27/2025 | 2.3% | -1.1% | -20.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.8% | 11.3% | 25.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | -0.1% | -9.0% | -6.8% |
| 5/9/2024 | 18.0% | 26.4% | 33.7% |
| 2/28/2024 | -15.0% | -19.4% | -11.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 11.3% | 24.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -9.0% | -15.4% |
| Max Positive | 19.2% | 26.8% | 33.7% |
| Max Negative | -24.0% | -21.0% | -23.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/18/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blumenthal, Neil Harris | Co-Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 25.09 | 150,000 | 3,763,500 | 931,316 | Form |
| 2 | Gilboa, David Abraham | Co-Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 22.46 | 25,000 | 561,500 | 836,568 | Form |
| 3 | Gilboa, David Abraham | Co-Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 24.29 | 50,000 | 1,214,500 | 904,730 | Form |
| 4 | Cutler, Joel E | Randi & Joel Cutler Family Foundation | Sell | 12182025 | 26.01 | 19,932 | 518,477 | 520,246 | Form | |
| 5 | Moon, Youngme E | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 29.07 | 38,832 | 1,128,846 | 786,547 | Form |
WRBY Trade Sentinel
Core Investment Debate
Retail Expansion: Path to Profitability or Margin Trap?
BULL VIEW
Store growth drives high-margin services like eye exams, increasing Average Revenue per Customer and taking market share from incumbents, leading to operating leverage.
CORE TENSION
Can aggressive physical store expansion lead to profitable scale, or will high fixed costs and competition permanently impair margins amid weakening consumer demand?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The company cut its full-year 2025 revenue guidance in Q3 2025 to a midpoint of $872.5 million from $884 million, signaling deteriorating forward expectations.
BEAR VIEW
High fixed costs, slowing e-commerce, and intense competition will compress margins, especially as the lower-margin contact lens business grows and consumers trade down.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late Feb 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call Watch: Gross Margin performance and FY 2026 guidance. A contraction below 54% would be a major negative signal. |
March 11-14, 2026 | Competitor Product Launch at Vision Expo East Watch: Announcements of lower-cost DTC brands or superior virtual try-on technology from major competitors like EssilorLuxottica or Zenni. |
Monthly | Consumer Credit Data Releases Watch: Sequential increase in the 90+ day delinquency rate for credit cards in the Federal Reserve's G.19 report. |
Ongoing | Macro: 10-Year Treasury Yield Watch: A sustained break and hold above the 4.5% level on the 10-Year Treasury Yield. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 18, 2025 | Post-Earnings High Details: Stock reached a peak of $27.34, marking the high point of optimism following the strong Q2 earnings report before sentiment reversed later in the year. | Flat (0.8%) $27.13 -> $27.34 |
Aug 12, 2025 | Q2 2025 Earnings Details: The company reported strong Q2 results and initially raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance, boosting investor confidence at the time. | Surged +9.8% $24.41 -> $26.81 |
Sep 15, 2025 | Strategic Event: Executive Trading Plans Adopted Details: Co-CEOs adopted Rule 10b5-1 trading plans, signaling intent for future share sales. The market reaction was muted. | Slight -1.5% pullback $26.75 -> $26.36 |
Nov 6, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings & Guidance Cut Details: Despite 15.2% revenue growth, the company missed analyst estimates and cut its full-year 2025 revenue outlook, citing moderating consumer trends. | Plummeted -11.1% $19.05 -> $16.93 |
Nov 17, 2025 | Post-Earnings Low Details: Stock hit a multi-month low of $16.49 as the market continued to digest weak guidance and the broader consumer spending slowdown narrative. | Fell notably by -2.8% $16.96 -> $16.49 |
Jan 13, 2026 | Insider Selling Disclosure Details: Co-CEO David Gilboa sold 80,094 shares under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan. The market disregarded the sale, focusing on broader market strength. | Surged +9.4% $26.58 -> $29.09 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (6.5x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, low revenue visibility, and contested moat force a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
LULU
SECTORUnlike WRBY, LULU has a proven history of high profitability, a strong brand moat allowing for pricing power, and consistent operational execution.
ELF
SECTORELF has a superior growth trajectory, is highly profitable, and operates in the 'affordable luxury' cosmetics space which is more resilient to consumer trade-downs than mid-priced eyewear.
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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