Tearsheet

Walmart (WMT)


Market Price (12/22/2025): $114.31 | Market Cap: $911.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Walmart (WMT)


Market Price (12/22/2025): $114.31
Market Cap: $911.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 41 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
  Key risks
WMT key risks include [1] intense pricing pressure from competitors that challenges its low-price value proposition and [2] margin compression resulting from substantial strategic investments in supply chain automation and technology.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 41 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x
5 Key risks
WMT key risks include [1] intense pricing pressure from competitors that challenges its low-price value proposition and [2] margin compression resulting from substantial strategic investments in supply chain automation and technology.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

WMT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The user is asking for key points explaining Walmart's (WMT) stock movement of 18.2% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025. I need to identify up to 5 key points, exclude insider transactions unless they exceed $5 million, and format the output using HTML. From the search results, I can gather information about Walmart's activities during the specified period. Several articles discuss Walmart's Q3 FY2026 earnings (which ended October 31, 2025, and were reported in November 2025), strategic initiatives, partnerships, and other relevant news. Based on the search results, here are some key points that could explain an upward stock movement: 1. **Strong Q3 FY2026 Earnings:** Walmart reported robust financial performance for Q3 FY2026 (quarter ended October 31, 2025), with revenue reaching $179.5 billion, a 5.8% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS of $0.62, beating analyst consensus. Net income increased by 910.38% year-over-year. This strong performance and positive outlook contributed to investor confidence. 2. **Increased Sales and E-commerce Growth:** Walmart U.S. comparable sales were up 4.6% with strong growth in grocery and health & wellness. Globally, eCommerce sales grew 25%, driven by store-fulfilled pickup and delivery and marketplace expansion. E-commerce business is expected to grow by 10% year over year, thanks to the expanded marketplace segment, with some reports noting 27% year-over-year e-commerce growth. 3. **Strategic Investments in AI and Technology:** Walmart continued to invest in technology and AI, including the expansion of automated fulfillment, a partnership with OpenAI for AI-powered shopping through ChatGPT, and the use of ambient IoT technology to transform its retail supply chain. These initiatives aim to improve operational efficiency, customer service, and create new revenue streams. 4. **Share Repurchase Program and Dividend Hike:** In August 2025, Walmart authorized a $15 billion share repurchase program and implemented a 13% dividend hike, bringing the annual payout to $0.94 per share. These actions can signal financial strength and return value to shareholders. 5. **Employee-Centric Initiatives and Supply Chain Improvements:** Walmart expanded its employee discount program and invested in training programs for skilled tradespeople, aiming to boost retention and address labor shortages. Additionally, AI-driven supply chain upgrades have reduced fulfillment costs and enabled faster delivery. The prompt mentions an 18.2% stock movement. Some search results indicate positive stock performance during 2025. Specifically, one source mentions Walmart's stock being up about 27% year-to-date and roughly 12% over the past 3 months as of mid-December 2025, outpacing many big-box retail peers, and reaching all-time highs around $116.79 on December 15, 2025. Another source mentions a 29% gain in 2025. The period from August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025, falls within these positive trends. I will consolidate these points into 5 key reasons, ensuring they align with the positive stock movement and adhere to the formatting requirements. I will also ensure no insider selling/buying over $5M is included as a key point, as none of the current results highlight such an event.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
WMT Return23%2%-0%13%74%28%215%
Peers Return37%38%-25%29%27%-6%121%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
WMT Win Rate58%58%50%67%83%67% 
Peers Win Rate63%68%40%63%62%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
WMT Max Drawdown-12%-12%-18%-3%-1%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-7%-31%-9%-5%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, COST, TGT, KR, HD. See WMT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventWMTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven406 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-13.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven15.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven6 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven385 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-26.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,203 days1,480 days

Compare to AMZN, COST, KR, TGT, BBY


In The Past

Walmart's stock fell -26.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2022. A -26.0% loss requires a 35.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Walmart (WMT)

Better Bets than Walmart (WMT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to WMT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.3%10.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-5.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.3%10.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-5.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Walmart

Peers to compare with:

Financials

WMTAMZNCOSTTGTKRHDMedian
NameWalmart Amazon.c.Costco W.Target Kroger Home Dep. 
Mkt Price114.36227.35855.6298.0162.41345.00170.85
Mkt Cap911.92,418.3379.944.540.9342.6361.2
Rev LTM703,061670,038280,391105,242147,225166,189223,290
Op Inc LTM28,97676,19010,6505,2041,55621,53616,093
FCF LTM15,26313,4819,0033,0092,26913,92711,242
FCF 3Y Avg14,98421,6777,6073,7322,25116,10611,295
CFO LTM40,977121,13714,7636,7746,06217,64916,206
CFO 3Y Avg37,58896,97712,6077,6466,13319,51816,062

Growth & Margins

WMTAMZNCOSTTGTKRHDMedian
NameWalmart Amazon.c.Costco W.Target Kroger Home Dep. 
Rev Chg LTM4.3%10.9%8.3%-2.2%-1.8%7.5%5.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.4%11.3%6.7%-1.1%0.2%1.9%3.7%
Rev Chg Q5.8%13.3%8.3%-1.6%0.7%2.8%4.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.4%3.0%1.9%-0.4%0.2%0.7%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM4.1%11.4%3.8%4.9%1.1%13.0%4.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.1%7.9%3.6%5.1%1.9%13.7%4.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.3%0.0%-0.2%-1.6%-0.1%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM5.8%18.1%5.3%6.4%4.1%10.6%6.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.6%15.8%4.8%7.2%4.1%12.4%6.4%
FCF/Rev LTM2.2%2.0%3.2%2.9%1.5%8.4%2.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.2%3.5%2.9%3.5%1.5%10.2%3.2%

Valuation

WMTAMZNCOSTTGTKRHDMedian
NameWalmart Amazon.c.Costco W.Target Kroger Home Dep. 
Mkt Cap911.92,418.3379.944.540.9342.6361.2
P/S1.33.61.40.40.32.11.3
P/EBIT27.428.433.88.427.915.827.6
P/E39.834.245.811.851.823.537.0
P/CFO22.320.025.76.66.719.419.7
Total Yield3.3%2.9%2.5%13.1%4.1%6.9%3.7%
Dividend Yield0.8%0.0%0.3%4.6%2.2%2.7%1.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.5%1.1%2.3%7.0%5.9%4.5%3.5%
D/E0.10.10.00.50.60.20.1
Net D/E0.10.0-0.00.40.50.20.1

Returns

WMTAMZNCOSTTGTKRHDMedian
NameWalmart Amazon.c.Costco W.Target Kroger Home Dep. 
1M Rtn8.8%3.0%-4.8%11.9%-5.5%1.1%2.1%
3M Rtn12.0%-1.8%-9.9%12.6%-4.3%-16.5%-3.1%
6M Rtn19.5%8.4%-12.5%5.0%-12.4%-0.1%2.4%
12M Rtn25.2%1.1%-9.9%-22.2%3.0%-9.9%-4.4%
3Y Rtn148.0%171.3%94.3%-23.0%47.5%17.8%70.9%
1M Excs Rtn11.0%-0.8%-6.8%11.0%-10.3%0.9%0.1%
3M Excs Rtn9.3%-2.2%-11.3%12.6%-4.9%-17.8%-3.5%
6M Excs Rtn3.9%-4.4%-28.0%-9.5%-28.2%-15.6%-12.6%
12M Excs Rtn8.0%-14.6%-25.4%-35.2%-8.9%-26.4%-20.0%
3Y Excs Rtn71.6%77.2%13.3%-99.7%-22.0%-59.4%-4.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Walmart U.S.443,802420,553393,247369,963341,004
Walmart International116,049100,983100,959121,360120,130
Sam's Club U.S.88,23084,34573,55663,91058,792
Corporate and support440000
Membership and other income 5,4084,9923,9184,038
Total648,125611,289572,754559,151523,964


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Walmart U.S.22,15420,62021,58719,11617,380
Walmart International4,9092,9653,7583,6603,370
Sam's Club U.S.2,1921,9642,2591,9061,642
Corporate and support-2,243-5,121-1,662-2,134-1,824
Total27,01220,42825,94222,54820,568


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Walmart U.S.137,782130,659125,044113,490110,353
Walmart International86,13686,76691,403109,445105,811
Sam's Club U.S.15,68215,49014,67813,41513,494
Corporate12,799    
Corporate and support 10,28213,73516,1466,837
Total252,399243,197244,860252,496236,495


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity46,669,627
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202517.8%
Average Daily Volume26,356,601
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.77
Basic Shares Quantity7,974,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/20/20256.5%8.4% 
8/21/2025-4.5%-6.3%-0.2%
5/15/2025-0.5%-0.4%-2.5%
2/20/2025-6.5%-7.5%-17.5%
11/19/20243.0%6.4%11.5%
8/15/20246.6%9.9%17.7%
5/16/20247.0%9.1%12.0%
2/20/20243.2%5.0%7.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive12911
# Negative121513
Median Positive3.6%6.4%6.4%
Median Negative-2.4%-3.0%-4.2%
Max Positive7.0%9.9%17.7%
Max Negative-11.4%-17.3%-19.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251203202510-Q 10/31/2025
7312025829202510-Q 7/31/2025
4302025606202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025314202510-K 1/31/2025
103120241206202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024830202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024607202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024315202410-K 1/31/2024
103120231130202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023901202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023602202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023317202310-K 1/31/2023
103120221201202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022902202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022603202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022318202210-K 1/31/2022