Walmart (WMT)
Market Price (3/20/2026): $121.34 | Market Cap: $967.2 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Walmart (WMT)
Market Price (3/20/2026): $121.34Market Cap: $967.2 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 42 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 44x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | Key risksWMT key risks include [1] intense pricing pressure from competitors that challenges its low-price value proposition and [2] margin compression resulting from substantial strategic investments in supply chain automation and technology. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 42 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 44x |
| Key risksWMT key risks include [1] intense pricing pressure from competitors that challenges its low-price value proposition and [2] margin compression resulting from substantial strategic investments in supply chain automation and technology. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Robust Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns.
Walmart reported strong full-year 2026 earnings, with revenue for the 12 months ending January 2026 reaching a record $713.16 billion, a 4.73% year-over-year increase. This financial strength was further bolstered by the announcement of a $30 billion equity buyback program and a dividend increase to $0.99 per share, marking the 53rd consecutive year of dividend raises.
2. Accelerated E-commerce Growth and Digital Advertising.
The company experienced significant growth in its e-commerce segment, with U.S. e-commerce sales soaring 27% and contributing 23% to overall sales for the 12 months ending January 2026. Walmart's higher-margin advertising and marketplace businesses also saw a notable 37% global increase, driven by ongoing investments in its digital transformation and omnichannel strategy.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.6% change in WMT stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 110.29 | 120.84 | 9.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 693,153 | 713,163 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.2 | 44.0 | 6.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7,978 | 7,971 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.6% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | 9.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.5% | -2.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 3.3% | 69.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.9% change in WMT stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.78 | 120.84 | 24.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 693,153 | 713,163 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.2 | 44.0 | 21.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7,978 | 7,971 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | 24.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | -6.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 2.2% | 60.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.7% change in WMT stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 97.67 | 120.84 | 23.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 673,819 | 713,163 | 5.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.9 | 44.0 | 10.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8,038 | 7,971 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | 23.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.0% | 39.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 0.6% | 64.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 164.6% change in WMT stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 105.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 45.68 | 120.84 | 164.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 600,112 | 713,163 | 18.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.5% | 3.1% | 105.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.4 | 44.0 | 6.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8,133 | 7,971 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 164.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | 164.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.7% | 32.0% |
| Sector (XLP) | 22.4% | 58.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WMT Return | 2% | -0% | 13% | 74% | 24% | 9% | 172% |
| Peers Return | 38% | -25% | 29% | 27% | -6% | 8% | 73% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WMT Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 67% | 83% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 40% | 63% | 62% | 47% | 73% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WMT Max Drawdown | -12% | -18% | -3% | -1% | -9% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -31% | -9% | -5% | -17% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, COST, TGT, KR, HD. See WMT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/19/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 406 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -13.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 385 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,203 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AMZN, COST, TGT, KR, HD
In The Past
Walmart's stock fell -26.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2022. A -26.0% loss requires a 35.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Walmart (WMT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Walmart (WMT):
Amazon for everyday essentials and general merchandise, but with a massive global footprint of physical stores.
A global combination of Target and Costco.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Grocery and Consumables: Sells a broad range of food, beverages, household items, health and beauty aids, and pet supplies.
- Health and Wellness Products: Offers pharmacy services, over-the-counter drugs, medical products, and related health items.
- General Merchandise: Provides home goods, apparel, electronics, outdoor living, and automotive products.
- Optical and Hearing Services: Delivers eye exams, optical products, and hearing aid services.
- Fuel Sales: Operates gasoline stations at many of its retail locations.
- Financial Services: Offers money orders, prepaid cards, money transfers, check cashing, and bill payment solutions.
- Membership Warehouse Operations: Provides exclusive access and bulk purchasing opportunities through Sam's Club.
- E-commerce Retailing: Facilitates online shopping via its various websites and mobile applications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Walmart Inc. (WMT) primarily sells its products and services directly to individual consumers. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Budget-Conscious Consumers: Individuals and families who prioritize value and low prices for their everyday needs, including groceries, household essentials, apparel, and electronics. Walmart's "Everyday Low Prices" strategy is designed to appeal to this broad segment.
- Everyday Household Shoppers: Customers who rely on Walmart for their regular and frequent purchases across a wide array of categories, such as groceries, health and beauty aids, pet supplies, and home goods. This group values the extensive selection and availability of products for their households.
- Convenience-Oriented Shoppers: Consumers who appreciate the convenience of Walmart's vast network of physical stores (supercenters, supermarkets, discount stores, and Sam's Club warehouse clubs), as well as its robust e-commerce platforms (walmart.com, samsclub.com) and mobile applications. These customers seek a one-stop-shop experience, easy access, and flexible shopping options like in-store pickup and home delivery.
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- Procter & Gamble (PG)
- PepsiCo (PEP)
- The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
- Nestlé S.A. (NSRGY)
- Unilever PLC (UL)
- Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB)
- The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)
- Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
John Furner, President and CEO, Walmart Inc.
John Furner became the President and CEO of Walmart Inc. on February 1, 2026. He has been with Walmart for 32 years, previously serving as the President and CEO of Walmart U.S.
John David Rainey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
John David Rainey is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Walmart, responsible for the company's financial operations, corporate strategy, global procurement, and investor relations. He joined Walmart in May 2022. Before Walmart, he was the Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Global Customer Operations at PayPal, and prior to that, he served as Executive Vice President and CFO at United Airlines, having spent a combined 18 years with United and Continental Airlines. He began his professional career at Ernst & Young LLP. Rainey serves on the board of directors and audit committee of Microsoft Corporation, and is a member of the board of directors at PhonePe. He also served on the board of directors for NASDAQ.
Seth Dallaire, Executive Vice President and Chief Growth Officer, Walmart Inc.
Seth Dallaire was named Executive Vice President and Chief Growth Officer for Walmart Inc., effective February 1, 2026. In this role, he oversees global enterprise platforms such as Walmart Connect, Walmart+, Walmart Data Ventures, Vizio, and a global Marketplace platform. Previously, he was the EVP and Chief Growth Officer for Walmart U.S., where he helped expand Walmart U.S. beyond traditional retail by building new revenue streams.
David Guggina, President and CEO, Walmart U.S.
David Guggina became President and CEO of Walmart U.S. on February 1, 2026. Prior to this, he served as the Executive Vice President and Chief eCommerce Officer for Walmart U.S., where he was instrumental in building industry-leading delivery capabilities that serve a significant portion of U.S. households. His background is in eCommerce and supply chain operations.
Chris Nicholas, President and CEO, Walmart International
Chris Nicholas was appointed President and CEO of Walmart International, effective February 1, 2026. He previously held the position of President and CEO of Sam's Club U.S.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Walmart's business:
- Intense Competition and E-commerce Dominance: Walmart faces fierce competition across the retail sector, particularly from e-commerce giants like Amazon. This necessitates continuous, substantial investment in its online platforms, technology, and omnichannel capabilities to maintain or grow market share in the rapidly evolving digital retail landscape. The inability to effectively compete in the e-commerce space could significantly impact Walmart's market position, sales, and overall financial performance.
- Margin Compression and High Capital Expenditure: As a mass-market retailer, Walmart operates with characteristically thin margins. To maintain its competitive edge and drive future growth, the company is undertaking significant capital expenditures in areas such as supply chain automation, artificial intelligence for inventory management, and broader technology infrastructure. While these investments are crucial for long-term success, they exert pressure on short-term profitability and require disciplined capital efficiency to ensure positive returns and prevent stagnation of its operating margins.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Disruptions: Given Walmart's immense global scale, with thousands of stores and a vast network of suppliers across many countries, its supply chain is susceptible to various disruptions. Challenges include the complexity of sourcing from diverse vendors, managing vast inventory levels, and external factors like geopolitical events, climate-related risks (such as extreme weather), and natural disasters. These vulnerabilities can lead to increased operational costs, inventory shortages, and an impaired ability to meet consumer demand.
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The emergence and rapid growth of social commerce platforms, such as TikTok Shop, represent a clear emerging threat to traditional retailers like Walmart. These platforms allow consumers to discover and purchase products directly within social media feeds and live streams, effectively bypassing established e-commerce websites and physical retail stores for a wide range of general merchandise. This model creates a new, highly interactive, and often influencer-driven purchasing channel that can capture significant market share, particularly among younger demographics, for categories like apparel, beauty, home goods, and electronics.
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Addressable Markets for Walmart's Main Products and Services
Walmart Inc. operates across various retail, wholesale, and e-commerce segments globally, with significant addressable markets for its diverse product and service offerings.
Grocery and Consumables
- Globally, the food and grocery retail market was valued at approximately USD 11.9 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 15.0 trillion by 2031. Other estimates place the global market at USD 11,932.5 million in 2023, projected to reach USD 14,781.1 million by 2030.
- In the U.S., the grocery and food market is valued at USD 3 trillion. The U.S. supermarkets and grocery stores market size was $900.6 billion in 2025. The online grocery market in the United States is expected to grow from US$ 183.26 billion in 2024 to reach US$ 715.54 billion by 2033.
Health and Wellness (Pharmacy)
- The global pharmacy market size was estimated at USD 1.35 trillion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 2.06 trillion by 2030. Another report indicates the global pharmacy market size was USD 2,337.97 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 4,569.34 billion by 2034.
- For the U.S., the pharmacy market size was estimated at USD 732.44 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1,707.02 billion by 2033. Another source valued the United States pharmacy market at USD 643.4 billion in 2024, expecting it to reach USD 905.8 billion by 2033.
General Merchandise
- The global general merchandise market was valued at approximately USD 2.63 trillion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach around USD 4.28 trillion by 2033. Another source estimates the global General Merchandise Market size at USD 6,297.43 billion in 2026, expected to reach USD 9,011.84 billion by 2035.
- In the U.S., monthly general merchandise store sales were $77.72 billion in January 2026.
Warehouse Clubs (Sam's Club)
- The global Warehouse Clubs Market was valued at USD 667.81 billion in 2025 and is projected to touch USD 997.23 billion by 2033. Another estimate states the global warehouse supermarket and warehouse club market is estimated at $500 billion in 2025, projected to reach approximately $850 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. Warehouse Clubs Market is expected to reach over $270 billion in 2025. The market size of the Warehouse Clubs & Supercenters in the US was $758.3 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $770.4 billion in 2026.
E-commerce
- The global e-commerce market size was valued at USD 21.62 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 83.19 trillion by 2035. Other sources indicate the global e-commerce market size was USD 21.3 trillion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 98.89 trillion by 2033.
- The U.S. e-commerce market revenue is estimated to reach approximately USD 1.45 trillion by 2025. The U.S. e-commerce market size is estimated at USD 1,381.6 billion in 2026, growing to USD 2,279.2 billion by 2031.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and evolving market dynamics:
- Accelerated E-commerce and Omnichannel Expansion: Walmart continues to prioritize and achieve substantial growth in its e-commerce segment, with online sales consistently increasing by 20% to 27% annually. This growth is fueled by robust store-fulfilled pickup and delivery services, and the expansion of its online marketplace. The company's digital transformation aims to serve customers more conveniently, driving increased transactions and unit volumes across both stores and digital channels.
- Growth in Higher-Margin Alternative Businesses: Walmart is actively expanding its higher-margin businesses, particularly advertising through Walmart Connect and its membership programs like Walmart+ and Sam's Club. Global advertising income has seen significant increases, with Walmart Connect in the U.S. growing by over 40%. Membership income has also demonstrated strong double-digit growth, contributing significantly to operating profit and diversifying the company's revenue streams.
- Strategic Store Development and Automation: The company has a comprehensive expansion strategy that includes building or converting more than 150 new stores and remodeling 650 existing locations over the next five years. Alongside physical expansion, Walmart is making substantial investments in digital transformation, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation within its supply chain and stores. These initiatives aim to automate a significant portion of its stores and fulfillment center operations to enhance efficiency, reduce unit costs, and improve the overall customer experience.
- Increased Market Share in Grocery and Expansion of Health & Wellness Services: Walmart is the largest grocery chain in the U.S., and it continues to gain market share in food and consumables. This is a crucial driver, as grocery sales comprise a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, the company is expanding its diversification into new service areas, such as healthcare, with plans to operate over 75 Walmart Health centers by early 2025, offering primary care, dental, and behavioral health services.
- Attracting and Retaining Diverse Customer Segments: Walmart has successfully attracted an increasing number of high-income customers, with households earning over $100,000 accounting for a substantial portion of its recent sales gains. This demographic shift, coupled with the company's continuous focus on offering "Everyday Low Prices" and value to all consumers, positions Walmart as a unique defensive powerhouse in a dynamic economic environment. The expansion of its marketplace with a focus on "attainable luxury" also helps broaden its appeal.
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Share Repurchases
- Walmart announced a new $30 billion share buyback program in February 2026.
- Annual share buybacks were $4.494 billion in 2025 and $2.779 billion in 2024.
Share Issuance
- Walmart completed a 3-for-1 stock split in early 2024.
- The number of outstanding shares was approximately 7.97 billion as of March 5th, 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Walmart finalized the acquisition of VIZIO in the U.S. in December 2024.
- The company is committing substantial capital for international expansion, including a $6 billion investment for expansion in Mexico.
- Walmart's majority-owned fintech venture, "One," achieved a $2.5 billion valuation in 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Walmart's annual capital expenditures were $23.783 billion in 2025, $20.606 billion in 2024, and $16.857 billion in 2023.
- For fiscal year 2026, Walmart projected capital expenditures of approximately $21 billion to $25 billion.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes technology, supply chain automation, physical store upgrades, and customer-facing initiatives, with an estimated $17 billion allocated for streamlining logistics in 2025.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Does Walmart Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 02/20/2026 | |
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Walmart Stock | 02/19/2026 | |
| How Walmart Stock Gained 30% | 02/13/2026 | |
| Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Walmart Stock | 02/07/2026 | |
| Between Dollar Tree and Walmart, Which Stock Looks Set to Break Out? | 02/07/2026 | |
| Walmart Stock Shares $132 Bil Success With Investors | 01/17/2026 | |
| Why Walmart Stock May Drop Soon | 01/13/2026 | |
| Walmart Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| Walmart Stock Surges 10%, With A 7-Day Winning Spree | 12/05/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Walmart Stock To $88? | 02/19/2026 | |
| What Is Happening With Walmart Stock? | 02/13/2026 | |
| What Could Rocket Walmart Stock to New Heights | 02/07/2026 | |
| Dollar Tree or Walmart: Which Stock Has More Upside? | 02/07/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 02/03/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to WMT.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | BRBR | BellRing Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -1.7% |
| 02062026 | AVO | Mission Produce | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.1% | 1.1% | -2.7% |
| 01022026 | CALM | Cal-Maine Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.0% | 12.0% | -7.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 164.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 379.3 |
| Rev LTM | 223,290 |
| Op Inc LTM | 16,093 |
| FCF LTM | 8,349 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 10,920 |
| CFO LTM | 16,206 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,062 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 379.3 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 26.2 |
| P/E | 36.4 |
| P/CFO | 17.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 87.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 20.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart U.S. | 150,006 | 137,782 | 130,659 | 125,044 | 113,490 |
| Walmart International | 80,016 | 86,136 | 86,766 | 91,403 | 109,445 |
| Sam's Club U.S. | 16,862 | 15,682 | 15,490 | 14,678 | 13,415 |
| Corporate and support | 13,939 | 10,282 | 13,735 | 16,146 | |
| Corporate | 12,799 | ||||
| Total | 260,823 | 252,399 | 243,197 | 244,860 | 252,496 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $120.84 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 963.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/25/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $123.43 | $107.77 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -2.1% | 12.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 25.7% | 24.6% |
| Downside Capture | -32.92 | 3.75 |
| Upside Capture | -5.95 | 39.36 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -3.2% | 37.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.37 | -0.05 | -0.18 | -0.20 | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| Up Beta | 2.46 | 1.39 | 0.71 | 0.24 | 0.81 | 0.66 |
| Down Beta | -1.58 | -0.49 | -0.51 | -0.34 | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| Up Capture | -21% | 29% | 21% | 16% | 29% | 18% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 33 | 65 | 129 | 417 |
| Down Capture | -160% | -93% | -85% | -87% | 19% | 23% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 28 | 58 | 121 | 333 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 42.7% | 24.5% | 1.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 4.8% | 14.1% | 0.10 | 64.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.7% | 18.8% | 0.78 | 37.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 53.5% | 26.8% | 1.59 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.5% | 17.4% | 0.86 | 9.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 16.1% | 0.08 | 40.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -14.3% | 44.4% | -0.22 | 6.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 23.7% | 21.1% | 0.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.0% | 13.2% | 0.32 | 59.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.3% | 17.0% | 0.57 | 35.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.6% | 17.4% | 1.01 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 7.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 31.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.4% | 56.7% | 0.30 | 10.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 20.4% | 21.7% | 0.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.3% | 14.7% | 0.37 | 61.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.6% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 41.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.5% | 15.7% | 0.71 | 7.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 33.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 9.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/19/2026 | -1.4% | -0.7% | |
| 11/20/2025 | 6.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% |
| 8/21/2025 | -4.5% | -6.3% | -0.2% |
| 5/15/2025 | -0.5% | -0.4% | -2.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -6.5% | -7.5% | -17.5% |
| 11/19/2024 | 3.0% | 6.4% | 11.5% |
| 8/15/2024 | 6.6% | 9.9% | 17.7% |
| 5/16/2024 | 7.0% | 9.1% | 12.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -3.0% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 7.0% | 9.9% | 17.7% |
| Max Negative | -11.4% | -17.3% | -19.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 111.83 | 19,416 | 2,171,217 | 482,567,288 | Form |
| 2 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 114.26 | 872,000 | 99,638,227 | 60,098,814,172 | Form | |
| 3 | McLay, Kathryn J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 115.21 | 4,000 | 460,840 | 118,833,935 | Form |
| 4 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 114.91 | 13,125 | 1,508,202 | 84,326,068 | Form |
| 5 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 115.31 | 261,000 | 30,095,086 | 60,808,154,056 | Form |
WMT Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 1.82x is attractive and falls squarely in Tier 2. The investment thesis is supported by a 'RESILIENT' competitive moat and a clear, quantifiable 'Alpha Driver' in the high-margin business mix-shift. While the valuation is at a premium and a macro slowdown poses a tangible risk, the 70% probability assigned to the upside scenario (mandated by the widening moat) creates a compelling risk/reward profile for a high-quality, market-leading compounder.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowWalmart is a quintessential mature, large-cap company with low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth. The investment thesis hinges on its vast scale, operational efficiency, and ability to generate consistent cash flow, which aligns perfectly with the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype's focus on capital efficiency and pricing power.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for shareholder return is the ongoing, successful pivot towards higher-margin, asset-light digital revenue streams, which is causing operating income to grow faster than overall company sales. This strategic mix-shift is fundamentally improving the company's profitability profile.
- Global advertising business grew 27% to $4.4B in FY25.
- U.S. Marketplace revenue grew 37% in FY25.
- High-margin segments like Walmart Connect (+24%) and Marketplace (+34%) are growing multiples faster than the core retail business (+5.1%).
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant near-term risk is a macro-driven slowdown in consumer spending. With savings rates at multi-year lows and credit card debt at record highs, the core Walmart shopper has a diminished capacity to absorb inflation and maintain current consumption levels, which could lead to a guidance miss on same-store sales.
- The Personal Saving Rate as of November 2025 was a low 3.5%.
- Total US credit card debt reached a record $1.233 trillion in Q3 2025.
- Company guidance for FY2026 projects a deceleration in net sales growth to 3-4% from 5.1% in FY2025.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Comparable Sales Growth | > 3.0% | This is the primary indicator of core business health and market share dynamics. Sustained growth above this level, balanced between traffic and ticket, validates the company's competitive strength against peers. |
| Walmart Connect (Advertising) Growth | > 20% YoY | This is the leading indicator for the 'Alpha Driver' thesis. Continued hyper-growth in this high-margin segment is critical to the margin expansion narrative and justifies the stock's premium valuation. |
| Gross Margin Rate | Sequential & YoY Improvement | An expanding gross margin rate provides direct evidence that the high-margin mix-shift from advertising and marketplace is successfully offsetting inflationary pressures and the lower-margin core retail business. |
Margin Expansion vs. Consumer Exhaustion
BULL VIEW
Strategic pivot to asset-light, high-margin revenue streams (ads +27%) is structurally improving profitability, justifying a premium valuation.
CORE TENSION
Can Walmart's high-margin digital business growth (ads, marketplace) outpace the macro pressure on its core, price-sensitive consumer base?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The prevailing Bearish sentiment is supported by the direct conflict between decelerating forward sales guidance (3-4%) and the high forward P/E of ~45x.
BEAR VIEW
Record consumer credit card debt ($1.233T) and low savings rates (3.5%) will inevitably lead to a sharp pullback in spending, hitting sales guidance.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Feb 19, 2026 | Q4 Earnings & FY2027 Guidance Watch: Gross Margin Rate and FY2027 U.S. Comparable Sales Growth guidance. |
Monthly (Next release early March 2026) | Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit Report Watch: A sharp acceleration in credit card delinquency rates or a sudden halt in revolving credit growth. |
During Q4 Earnings Call or Investor Day | Supply Chain Automation Update Watch: Commentary on delays, cost overruns, or lower-than-expected ROI from the automation capex cycle. |
Next 6 Months | Macro Shift / U.S. Treasury Yields Watch: 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield breaking and holding above 4.5%. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 21, 2025 | Q2 FY2026 Earnings Details: Despite strong sales growth of 5.6% and raising full-year guidance, the stock fell, reportedly due to concerns over moderating customer visit growth. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] | Fell notably by -4.5% $102.36 -> $97.76 |
Sep 4, 2025 | Strategic Partnership: TalkShopLive Expansion Details: Expanded its partnership with TalkShopLive for a new weekly livestreaming series, aiming to boost engagement in the collectibles marketplace. [7] | Modest 1.5% gain $99.23 -> $100.72 |
Nov 20, 2025 | Q3 FY2026 Earnings Details: Walmart reported strong Q3 results with revenue growth of 5.8% and global eCommerce growth of 27%, leading to a positive market reaction. [14, 31, 34, 35] | Surged +6.5% $100.40 -> $106.89 |
Jan 13, 2026 | Strategic Partnership: Google AI Integration Details: Announced a partnership with Google to integrate Walmart's shopping tools directly into Google's AI assistant, Gemini, to compete with Amazon. [20, 32] | Rose significantly by 2.0% $117.97 -> $120.36 |
Feb 2, 2026 | Product Launch: Walmart Exports Program Details: Announced the launch of Walmart Exports, a new program to allow U.S. marketplace sellers to ship to customers in Mexico and Canada, leveraging its fulfillment network. [21] | Rose significantly by 4.1% $119.14 -> $124.06 |
Feb 3, 2026 | Strategic Milestone: $1 Trillion Market Capitalization Details: Walmart's market value crossed the $1 trillion threshold, a milestone driven by its technology and AI investments that position it beyond a traditional retailer. [13, 16, 25, 32] | Stock surged +7.2% $119.14 -> $127.71 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The moderate volatility profile is manageable, but the Bearish sentiment verdict, driven by significant macro risks, combined with medium visibility, warrants a Conservative sizing. Conviction is low until consumer health trends improve.
Diversification Alternatives
DLTR
INDUSTRYPure-play on the value-seeking consumer. Its lower price point could make it a beneficiary of trade-down from Walmart in a severe consumer recession.
PSMT
INDUSTRYOffers geographic diversification away from the potentially saturated U.S. market, with operations in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Walmart is re-rating from a low-margin, brick-and-mortar retailer to a tech-enabled, omnichannel ecosystem, with high-margin advertising and membership revenue streams becoming a significant and rapidly growing portion of its profitability.
Filter all news through the lens of the omnichannel and high-margin business transformation. Focus on data that confirms or denies the growth and profitability of e-commerce, advertising, and memberships.
Global e-commerce growth >20% YoY; Global advertising revenue growth >30% YoY; double-digit growth in Walmart+ membership; market share gains in grocery and general merchandise from higher-income households.
Slowing e-commerce growth below 15%; deceleration in advertising revenue growth; flat or declining membership numbers; loss of market share in key retail categories to Amazon or other competitors.
Quarterly fluctuations in same-store sales (as long as the omnichannel thesis is intact); short-term changes in consumer spending habits due to transient economic factors; individual product wins or losses.
Repricing Catalyst
The rapid scaling of Walmart's global advertising business (reaching nearly $6.4 billion in FY2026 with 46% YoY growth) and membership income (grew over 15% globally in Q4) which together now represent nearly one-third of operating profit. This suggests a structural shift in the company's profit mix towards higher-margin, recurring revenue streams, justifying a potential valuation re-rating.
Walmart U.S. (Retail & eCommerce)
$462.4B TTM (68.0% of Total) · 26.9% MarginWhat It Is
Operates supercenters, discount stores, neighborhood markets, and their associated e-commerce website (walmart.com). Sells groceries, general merchandise, and health and wellness products.
Who Pays & How
A broad range of consumers, with recent market share gains from households making over $100,000. Customers choose Walmart for its value proposition (low prices) and increasing convenience (omnichannel shopping options).
Competition
Walmart International
$121.9B TTM (17.9% of Total) · 21.8% MarginWhat It Is
Operates retail stores and e-commerce websites in 19 countries outside the U.S.
Who Pays & How
Consumers in various international markets, with notable strength in China, Walmex, and Flipkart (India).
Competition
Sam's Club U.S.
$79.8B TTM (11.7% of Total) · 11.2% MarginWhat It Is
Membership-only warehouse clubs in the U.S.
Who Pays & How
Members who pay an annual fee for access to bulk-priced goods.
Competition
High-Margin Services (Advertising & Memberships)
$10.7B TTM (2.4% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Advertising services (Walmart Connect) and membership programs (Walmart+ and Sam's Club).
Who Pays & How
Brands pay for advertising to reach Walmart's large customer base. Consumers pay for memberships to get benefits like free shipping and fuel discounts.
Competition
External Quote Links
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