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Walmart (WMT)

Market Price (3/19/2026): $122.45 | Market Cap: $976.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Walmart (WMT)

Market Price (3/19/2026): $122.45
Market Cap: $976.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 42 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil		 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 44x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%		 Key risks
WMT key risks include [1] intense pricing pressure from competitors that challenges its low-price value proposition and [2] margin compression resulting from substantial strategic investments in supply chain automation and technology.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Show more.		 
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 42 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Show more.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 44x
4 Key risks
WMT key risks include [1] intense pricing pressure from competitors that challenges its low-price value proposition and [2] margin compression resulting from substantial strategic investments in supply chain automation and technology.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Walmart (WMT) stock has gained about 10% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Robust Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns.

Walmart reported strong full-year 2026 earnings, with revenue for the 12 months ending January 2026 reaching a record $713.16 billion, a 4.73% year-over-year increase. This financial strength was further bolstered by the announcement of a $30 billion equity buyback program and a dividend increase to $0.99 per share, marking the 53rd consecutive year of dividend raises.

2. Accelerated E-commerce Growth and Digital Advertising.

The company experienced significant growth in its e-commerce segment, with U.S. e-commerce sales soaring 27% and contributing 23% to overall sales for the 12 months ending January 2026. Walmart's higher-margin advertising and marketplace businesses also saw a notable 37% global increase, driven by ongoing investments in its digital transformation and omnichannel strategy.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 10.6% change in WMT stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)113020253182026Change
Stock Price ($)110.29121.9810.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)693,153713,1632.9%
Net Income Margin (%)3.1%3.1%-0.3%
P/E Multiple41.244.47.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7,9787,9710.1%
Cumulative Contribution10.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 3/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
WMT10.6% 
Market (SPY)-3.2%-3.2%
Sector (XLP)4.1%69.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 26.0% change in WMT stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120253182026Change
Stock Price ($)96.78121.9826.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)693,153713,1632.9%
Net Income Margin (%)3.1%3.1%-0.3%
P/E Multiple36.244.422.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7,9787,9710.1%
Cumulative Contribution26.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 3/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
WMT26.0% 
Market (SPY)2.8%-6.7%
Sector (XLP)3.0%59.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 24.9% change in WMT stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820253182026Change
Stock Price ($)97.67121.9824.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)673,819713,1635.8%
Net Income Margin (%)2.9%3.1%5.1%
P/E Multiple39.944.411.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8,0387,9710.8%
Cumulative Contribution24.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2025 to 3/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
WMT24.9% 
Market (SPY)12.3%39.4%
Sector (XLP)1.4%64.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 167.1% change in WMT stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 105.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)22820233182026Change
Stock Price ($)45.68121.98167.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)600,112713,16318.8%
Net Income Margin (%)1.5%3.1%105.4%
P/E Multiple41.444.47.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8,1337,9712.0%
Cumulative Contribution167.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2023 to 3/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
WMT167.1% 
Market (SPY)73.1%31.9%
Sector (XLP)23.4%57.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
WMT Return2%-0%13%74%24%12%179%
Peers Return38%-25%29%27%-6%10%76%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-2%79%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
WMT Win Rate58%50%67%83%67%67% 
Peers Win Rate68%40%63%62%47%80% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
WMT Max Drawdown-12%-18%-3%-1%-9%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-7%-31%-9%-5%-17%-4% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-3% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, COST, TGT, KR, HD. See WMT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/18/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventWMTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven406 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-13.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven15.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven6 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven385 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-26.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,203 days1,480 days

Compare to AMZN, COST, TGT, KR, HD

In The Past

Walmart's stock fell -26.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2022. A -26.0% loss requires a 35.2% gain to breakeven.

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About Walmart (WMT)

Walmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail, wholesale, and other units worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, hypermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores; membership-only warehouse clubs; ecommerce websites, such as walmart.com, walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, and samsclub.com; and mobile commerce applications. The company offers grocery and consumables, which includes dairy, meat, bakery, deli, produce, dry, chilled or frozen packaged foods, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, floral, snack foods, candy, other grocery items, health and beauty aids, paper goods, laundry and home care, baby care, pet supplies, and other consumable items; and health and wellness products covering pharmacy, over-the-counter drugs and other medical products, and optical and hearing services. It also provides gasoline stations and tobacco; home improvement, outdoor living, gardening, furniture, apparel, jewelry, tools and power equipment, housewares, toys, seasonal items, mattresses, and tire and battery centers; and consumer electronics and accessories, software, video games, office supplies, appliances, and third-party gift cards. In addition, the company offers fuel and financial services and related products, including money orders, prepaid cards, money transfers, and check cashing and bill payment, as well as various types of installment lending. It operates approximately 10,500 stores and various e-commerce websites under 46 banners in 24 countries. The company was formerly known as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and changed its name to Walmart Inc. in February 2018. The company was founded in 1945 and is based in Bentonville, Arkansas.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Walmart (WMT):

  • Amazon for everyday essentials and general merchandise, but with a massive global footprint of physical stores.

  • A global combination of Target and Costco.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Grocery and Consumables: Sells a broad range of food, beverages, household items, health and beauty aids, and pet supplies.
  • Health and Wellness Products: Offers pharmacy services, over-the-counter drugs, medical products, and related health items.
  • General Merchandise: Provides home goods, apparel, electronics, outdoor living, and automotive products.
  • Optical and Hearing Services: Delivers eye exams, optical products, and hearing aid services.
  • Fuel Sales: Operates gasoline stations at many of its retail locations.
  • Financial Services: Offers money orders, prepaid cards, money transfers, check cashing, and bill payment solutions.
  • Membership Warehouse Operations: Provides exclusive access and bulk purchasing opportunities through Sam's Club.
  • E-commerce Retailing: Facilitates online shopping via its various websites and mobile applications.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Walmart Inc. (WMT) primarily sells its products and services directly to individual consumers. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:

  1. Budget-Conscious Consumers: Individuals and families who prioritize value and low prices for their everyday needs, including groceries, household essentials, apparel, and electronics. Walmart's "Everyday Low Prices" strategy is designed to appeal to this broad segment.
  2. Everyday Household Shoppers: Customers who rely on Walmart for their regular and frequent purchases across a wide array of categories, such as groceries, health and beauty aids, pet supplies, and home goods. This group values the extensive selection and availability of products for their households.
  3. Convenience-Oriented Shoppers: Consumers who appreciate the convenience of Walmart's vast network of physical stores (supercenters, supermarkets, discount stores, and Sam's Club warehouse clubs), as well as its robust e-commerce platforms (walmart.com, samsclub.com) and mobile applications. These customers seek a one-stop-shop experience, easy access, and flexible shopping options like in-store pickup and home delivery.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Procter & Gamble (PG)
  • PepsiCo (PEP)
  • The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
  • Nestlé S.A. (NSRGY)
  • Unilever PLC (UL)
  • Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB)
  • The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)
  • Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)

AI Analysis | Feedback

John Furner, President and CEO, Walmart Inc.

John Furner became the President and CEO of Walmart Inc. on February 1, 2026. He has been with Walmart for 32 years, previously serving as the President and CEO of Walmart U.S.

John David Rainey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

John David Rainey is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Walmart, responsible for the company's financial operations, corporate strategy, global procurement, and investor relations. He joined Walmart in May 2022. Before Walmart, he was the Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Global Customer Operations at PayPal, and prior to that, he served as Executive Vice President and CFO at United Airlines, having spent a combined 18 years with United and Continental Airlines. He began his professional career at Ernst & Young LLP. Rainey serves on the board of directors and audit committee of Microsoft Corporation, and is a member of the board of directors at PhonePe. He also served on the board of directors for NASDAQ.

Seth Dallaire, Executive Vice President and Chief Growth Officer, Walmart Inc.

Seth Dallaire was named Executive Vice President and Chief Growth Officer for Walmart Inc., effective February 1, 2026. In this role, he oversees global enterprise platforms such as Walmart Connect, Walmart+, Walmart Data Ventures, Vizio, and a global Marketplace platform. Previously, he was the EVP and Chief Growth Officer for Walmart U.S., where he helped expand Walmart U.S. beyond traditional retail by building new revenue streams.

David Guggina, President and CEO, Walmart U.S.

David Guggina became President and CEO of Walmart U.S. on February 1, 2026. Prior to this, he served as the Executive Vice President and Chief eCommerce Officer for Walmart U.S., where he was instrumental in building industry-leading delivery capabilities that serve a significant portion of U.S. households. His background is in eCommerce and supply chain operations.

Chris Nicholas, President and CEO, Walmart International

Chris Nicholas was appointed President and CEO of Walmart International, effective February 1, 2026. He previously held the position of President and CEO of Sam's Club U.S.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to Walmart's business:

  1. Intense Competition and E-commerce Dominance: Walmart faces fierce competition across the retail sector, particularly from e-commerce giants like Amazon. This necessitates continuous, substantial investment in its online platforms, technology, and omnichannel capabilities to maintain or grow market share in the rapidly evolving digital retail landscape. The inability to effectively compete in the e-commerce space could significantly impact Walmart's market position, sales, and overall financial performance.
  2. Margin Compression and High Capital Expenditure: As a mass-market retailer, Walmart operates with characteristically thin margins. To maintain its competitive edge and drive future growth, the company is undertaking significant capital expenditures in areas such as supply chain automation, artificial intelligence for inventory management, and broader technology infrastructure. While these investments are crucial for long-term success, they exert pressure on short-term profitability and require disciplined capital efficiency to ensure positive returns and prevent stagnation of its operating margins.
  3. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Disruptions: Given Walmart's immense global scale, with thousands of stores and a vast network of suppliers across many countries, its supply chain is susceptible to various disruptions. Challenges include the complexity of sourcing from diverse vendors, managing vast inventory levels, and external factors like geopolitical events, climate-related risks (such as extreme weather), and natural disasters. These vulnerabilities can lead to increased operational costs, inventory shortages, and an impaired ability to meet consumer demand.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The emergence and rapid growth of social commerce platforms, such as TikTok Shop, represent a clear emerging threat to traditional retailers like Walmart. These platforms allow consumers to discover and purchase products directly within social media feeds and live streams, effectively bypassing established e-commerce websites and physical retail stores for a wide range of general merchandise. This model creates a new, highly interactive, and often influencer-driven purchasing channel that can capture significant market share, particularly among younger demographics, for categories like apparel, beauty, home goods, and electronics.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Addressable Markets for Walmart's Main Products and Services

Walmart Inc. operates across various retail, wholesale, and e-commerce segments globally, with significant addressable markets for its diverse product and service offerings.

Grocery and Consumables

  • Globally, the food and grocery retail market was valued at approximately USD 11.9 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 15.0 trillion by 2031. Other estimates place the global market at USD 11,932.5 million in 2023, projected to reach USD 14,781.1 million by 2030.
  • In the U.S., the grocery and food market is valued at USD 3 trillion. The U.S. supermarkets and grocery stores market size was $900.6 billion in 2025. The online grocery market in the United States is expected to grow from US$ 183.26 billion in 2024 to reach US$ 715.54 billion by 2033.

Health and Wellness (Pharmacy)

  • The global pharmacy market size was estimated at USD 1.35 trillion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 2.06 trillion by 2030. Another report indicates the global pharmacy market size was USD 2,337.97 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 4,569.34 billion by 2034.
  • For the U.S., the pharmacy market size was estimated at USD 732.44 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1,707.02 billion by 2033. Another source valued the United States pharmacy market at USD 643.4 billion in 2024, expecting it to reach USD 905.8 billion by 2033.

General Merchandise

  • The global general merchandise market was valued at approximately USD 2.63 trillion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach around USD 4.28 trillion by 2033. Another source estimates the global General Merchandise Market size at USD 6,297.43 billion in 2026, expected to reach USD 9,011.84 billion by 2035.
  • In the U.S., monthly general merchandise store sales were $77.72 billion in January 2026.

Warehouse Clubs (Sam's Club)

  • The global Warehouse Clubs Market was valued at USD 667.81 billion in 2025 and is projected to touch USD 997.23 billion by 2033. Another estimate states the global warehouse supermarket and warehouse club market is estimated at $500 billion in 2025, projected to reach approximately $850 billion by 2033.
  • The U.S. Warehouse Clubs Market is expected to reach over $270 billion in 2025. The market size of the Warehouse Clubs & Supercenters in the US was $758.3 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $770.4 billion in 2026.

E-commerce

  • The global e-commerce market size was valued at USD 21.62 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 83.19 trillion by 2035. Other sources indicate the global e-commerce market size was USD 21.3 trillion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 98.89 trillion by 2033.
  • The U.S. e-commerce market revenue is estimated to reach approximately USD 1.45 trillion by 2025. The U.S. e-commerce market size is estimated at USD 1,381.6 billion in 2026, growing to USD 2,279.2 billion by 2031.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and evolving market dynamics:

  1. Accelerated E-commerce and Omnichannel Expansion: Walmart continues to prioritize and achieve substantial growth in its e-commerce segment, with online sales consistently increasing by 20% to 27% annually. This growth is fueled by robust store-fulfilled pickup and delivery services, and the expansion of its online marketplace. The company's digital transformation aims to serve customers more conveniently, driving increased transactions and unit volumes across both stores and digital channels.
  2. Growth in Higher-Margin Alternative Businesses: Walmart is actively expanding its higher-margin businesses, particularly advertising through Walmart Connect and its membership programs like Walmart+ and Sam's Club. Global advertising income has seen significant increases, with Walmart Connect in the U.S. growing by over 40%. Membership income has also demonstrated strong double-digit growth, contributing significantly to operating profit and diversifying the company's revenue streams.
  3. Strategic Store Development and Automation: The company has a comprehensive expansion strategy that includes building or converting more than 150 new stores and remodeling 650 existing locations over the next five years. Alongside physical expansion, Walmart is making substantial investments in digital transformation, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation within its supply chain and stores. These initiatives aim to automate a significant portion of its stores and fulfillment center operations to enhance efficiency, reduce unit costs, and improve the overall customer experience.
  4. Increased Market Share in Grocery and Expansion of Health & Wellness Services: Walmart is the largest grocery chain in the U.S., and it continues to gain market share in food and consumables. This is a crucial driver, as grocery sales comprise a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, the company is expanding its diversification into new service areas, such as healthcare, with plans to operate over 75 Walmart Health centers by early 2025, offering primary care, dental, and behavioral health services.
  5. Attracting and Retaining Diverse Customer Segments: Walmart has successfully attracted an increasing number of high-income customers, with households earning over $100,000 accounting for a substantial portion of its recent sales gains. This demographic shift, coupled with the company's continuous focus on offering "Everyday Low Prices" and value to all consumers, positions Walmart as a unique defensive powerhouse in a dynamic economic environment. The expansion of its marketplace with a focus on "attainable luxury" also helps broaden its appeal.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Walmart announced a new $30 billion share buyback program in February 2026.
  • Annual share buybacks were $4.494 billion in 2025 and $2.779 billion in 2024.

Share Issuance

  • Walmart completed a 3-for-1 stock split in early 2024.
  • The number of outstanding shares was approximately 7.97 billion as of March 5th, 2026.

Outbound Investments

  • Walmart finalized the acquisition of VIZIO in the U.S. in December 2024.
  • The company is committing substantial capital for international expansion, including a $6 billion investment for expansion in Mexico.
  • Walmart's majority-owned fintech venture, "One," achieved a $2.5 billion valuation in 2025.

Capital Expenditures

  • Walmart's annual capital expenditures were $23.783 billion in 2025, $20.606 billion in 2024, and $16.857 billion in 2023.
  • For fiscal year 2026, Walmart projected capital expenditures of approximately $21 billion to $25 billion.
  • The primary focus of capital expenditures includes technology, supply chain automation, physical store upgrades, and customer-facing initiatives, with an estimated $17 billion allocated for streamlining logistics in 2025.

Interactive Breakdown

Walmart Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets vs. Walmart (WMT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to WMT.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BRBR_2272026_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG02272026BRBRBellRing BrandsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap		0.0%0.0%0.0%
STZ_2132026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02132026STZConstellation BrandsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		5.7%5.7%0.0%
KMB_2132026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V202132026KMBKimberly-ClarkInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap		1.9%1.9%-1.7%
AVO_2062026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V202062026AVOMission ProduceInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap		1.1%1.1%-2.7%
CALM_1022026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01022026CALMCal-Maine FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		12.0%12.0%-7.7%

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

WMTAMZNCOSTTGTKRHDMedian
NameWalmart Amazon.c.Costco W.Target Kroger Home Dep. 
Mkt Price121.98209.87979.92115.0573.28330.93165.93
Mkt Cap972.32,247.7435.052.148.0328.6381.8
Rev LTM713,163716,924280,391104,780147,225166,189223,290
Op Inc LTM29,82579,97510,6505,1171,55621,53616,093
FCF LTM14,9237,6959,0032,8352,26913,9278,349
FCF 3Y Avg14,23424,2637,6073,7092,25116,10610,920
CFO LTM41,565139,51414,7636,5626,06217,64916,206
CFO 3Y Avg37,911113,44612,6077,5176,13319,51816,062

Growth & Margins

WMTAMZNCOSTTGTKRHDMedian
NameWalmart Amazon.c.Costco W.Target Kroger Home Dep. 
Rev Chg LTM4.7%12.4%8.3%-1.7%-1.8%7.5%6.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.3%11.7%6.7%-1.3%0.2%1.9%3.6%
Rev Chg Q5.6%13.6%8.3%-1.5%0.7%2.8%4.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.4%3.7%1.9%-0.4%0.2%0.7%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM4.2%11.2%3.8%4.9%1.1%13.0%4.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.2%9.4%3.6%5.1%1.9%13.7%4.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%0.1%0.0%-0.1%-1.6%-0.1%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM5.8%19.5%5.3%6.3%4.1%10.6%6.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.6%17.5%4.8%7.1%4.1%12.4%6.3%
FCF/Rev LTM2.1%1.1%3.2%2.7%1.5%8.4%2.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.1%3.9%2.9%3.5%1.5%10.2%3.2%

Valuation

WMTAMZNCOSTTGTKRHDMedian
NameWalmart Amazon.c.Costco W.Target Kroger Home Dep. 
Mkt Cap972.32,247.7435.052.148.0328.6381.8
P/S1.43.11.60.50.32.01.5
P/EBIT30.122.638.710.032.715.226.4
P/E44.428.952.414.160.822.536.7
P/CFO23.416.129.57.97.918.617.4
Total Yield3.0%3.5%2.2%11.0%3.5%7.2%3.5%
Dividend Yield0.8%0.0%0.3%3.9%1.9%2.8%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.3%1.3%2.2%6.5%5.8%4.5%3.4%
D/E0.10.10.00.40.50.20.1
Net D/E0.10.0-0.00.30.40.20.1

Returns

WMTAMZNCOSTTGTKRHDMedian
NameWalmart Amazon.c.Costco W.Target Kroger Home Dep. 
1M Rtn-8.9%5.6%-3.8%-0.6%2.8%-14.8%-2.2%
3M Rtn5.5%-5.2%13.7%17.9%15.4%-6.6%9.6%
6M Rtn17.2%-9.4%2.0%32.3%10.6%-19.6%6.3%
12M Rtn43.9%8.8%9.7%15.0%13.3%-2.9%11.5%
3Y Rtn171.2%112.1%109.5%-19.6%67.4%23.8%88.5%
1M Excs Rtn-2.1%7.5%0.0%1.9%8.4%-9.8%1.0%
3M Excs Rtn7.3%-2.9%16.8%21.9%20.3%-3.9%12.0%
6M Excs Rtn17.9%-10.6%2.9%30.9%10.7%-20.7%6.8%
12M Excs Rtn24.1%-9.5%-9.2%-2.9%-4.1%-20.9%-6.7%
3Y Excs Rtn104.5%55.2%44.4%-90.6%-4.7%-47.2%19.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment
$ Mil20262025202420232022
Walmart U.S.150,006137,782130,659125,044113,490
Walmart International80,01686,13686,76691,403109,445
Sam's Club U.S.16,86215,68215,49014,67813,415
Corporate and support13,939 10,28213,73516,146
Corporate 12,799   
Total260,823252,399243,197244,860252,496


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$121.98 
Market Cap ($ Bil)972.7 
First Trading Date08/25/1972 
Distance from 52W High-8.9% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$123.30$107.67
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-1.1%13.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility25.6%24.4%
Downside Capture-38.532.57
Upside Capture-9.9739.81
Correlation (SPY)-8.6%37.1%
WMT Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.37-0.05-0.18-0.200.530.44
Up Beta2.461.390.710.240.810.66
Down Beta-1.58-0.49-0.51-0.340.500.45
Up Capture-21%29%21%16%29%18%
Bmk +ve Days9203170142431
Stock +ve Days12203365129417
Down Capture-160%-93%-85%-87%19%23%
Bmk -ve Days12213054109320
Stock -ve Days9212858121333

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with WMT
WMT41.0%24.6%1.34-
Sector ETF (XLP)4.4%14.1%0.0864.8%
Equity (SPY)17.7%18.9%0.7337.5%
Gold (GLD)62.0%26.4%1.815.7%
Commodities (DBC)18.3%17.3%0.859.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.2%16.1%0.0840.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-12.1%44.3%-0.165.8%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with WMT
WMT24.3%21.1%0.97-
Sector ETF (XLP)7.3%13.2%0.3459.8%
Equity (SPY)12.4%17.0%0.5735.5%
Gold (GLD)22.6%17.3%1.077.8%
Commodities (DBC)10.7%19.0%0.457.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.2%18.8%0.1331.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)5.0%56.7%0.3110.7%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with WMT
WMT20.5%21.7%0.84-
Sector ETF (XLP)7.4%14.7%0.3861.2%
Equity (SPY)14.6%17.9%0.7041.3%
Gold (GLD)14.1%15.7%0.757.0%
Commodities (DBC)8.4%17.6%0.399.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2333.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.9%66.8%1.079.2%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date2272026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity87.1 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 2152026-15.7%
Average Daily Volume27.1 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.2 days
Basic Shares Quantity7,971.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/19/2026-1.4%-0.7% 
11/20/20256.5%8.4%12.1%
8/21/2025-4.5%-6.3%-0.2%
5/15/2025-0.5%-0.4%-2.5%
2/20/2025-6.5%-7.5%-17.5%
11/19/20243.0%6.4%11.5%
8/15/20246.6%9.9%17.7%
5/16/20247.0%9.1%12.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11911
# Negative131512
Median Positive4.0%6.4%7.6%
Median Negative-2.2%-3.0%-4.2%
Max Positive7.0%9.9%17.7%
Max Negative-11.4%-17.3%-19.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
01/31/202603/13/202610-K
10/31/202512/03/202510-Q
07/31/202508/29/202510-Q
04/30/202506/06/202510-Q
01/31/202503/14/202510-K
10/31/202412/06/202410-Q
07/31/202408/30/202410-Q
04/30/202406/07/202410-Q
01/31/202403/15/202410-K
10/31/202311/30/202310-Q
07/31/202309/01/202310-Q
04/30/202306/02/202310-Q
01/31/202303/17/202310-K
10/31/202212/01/202210-Q
07/31/202209/02/202210-Q
04/30/202206/03/202210-Q

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1McMillon, C DouglasPresident and CEODirectSell12292025111.8319,4162,171,217482,567,288Form
2Walton, Family Holdings Trust DirectSell12192025114.26872,00099,638,22760,098,814,172Form
3McLay, Kathryn JExecutive Vice PresidentDirectSell12192025115.214,000460,840118,833,935Form
4Furner, John RExecutive Vice PresidentDirectSell12192025114.9113,1251,508,20284,326,068Form
5Walton, Family Holdings Trust DirectSell12172025115.31261,00030,095,08660,808,154,056Form

WMT Trade Sentinel

Stock Conviction

ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The probability-adjusted skew of 1.82x is attractive and falls squarely in Tier 2. The investment thesis is supported by a 'RESILIENT' competitive moat and a clear, quantifiable 'Alpha Driver' in the high-margin business mix-shift. While the valuation is at a premium and a macro slowdown poses a tangible risk, the 70% probability assigned to the upside scenario (mandated by the widening moat) creates a compelling risk/reward profile for a high-quality, market-leading compounder.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash Cow

Walmart is a quintessential mature, large-cap company with low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth. The investment thesis hinges on its vast scale, operational efficiency, and ability to generate consistent cash flow, which aligns perfectly with the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype's focus on capital efficiency and pricing power.

INVESTMENT THESIS
Margin Expansion via High-Margin Digital Revenue Mix-Shift

The primary driver for shareholder return is the ongoing, successful pivot towards higher-margin, asset-light digital revenue streams, which is causing operating income to grow faster than overall company sales. This strategic mix-shift is fundamentally improving the company's profitability profile.

Mechanism: Walmart is leveraging its massive physical and digital footprint to layer high-margin services on top of its core low-margin retail business. This includes selling digital advertising space to its suppliers (Walmart Connect), growing its third-party marketplace (Marketplace), and building out its membership program (Walmart+).
Supporting Evidence:
  • Global advertising business grew 27% to $4.4B in FY25.
  • U.S. Marketplace revenue grew 37% in FY25.
  • High-margin segments like Walmart Connect (+24%) and Marketplace (+34%) are growing multiples faster than the core retail business (+5.1%).
PRIMARY RISK
Consumer Spending Deceleration Driven by Exhausted Consumer Credit

The most significant near-term risk is a macro-driven slowdown in consumer spending. With savings rates at multi-year lows and credit card debt at record highs, the core Walmart shopper has a diminished capacity to absorb inflation and maintain current consumption levels, which could lead to a guidance miss on same-store sales.

Mechanism: A pullback in discretionary spending and a trade-down to lower-margin private label goods could pressure revenue and gross margins. If consumer credit delinquencies rise sharply, it would signal an imminent contraction in retail spending, directly impacting Walmart's top-line growth.
Supporting Evidence:
  • The Personal Saving Rate as of November 2025 was a low 3.5%.
  • Total US credit card debt reached a record $1.233 trillion in Q3 2025.
  • Company guidance for FY2026 projects a deceleration in net sales growth to 3-4% from 5.1% in FY2025.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
U.S. Comparable Sales Growth> 3.0%This is the primary indicator of core business health and market share dynamics. Sustained growth above this level, balanced between traffic and ticket, validates the company's competitive strength against peers.
Walmart Connect (Advertising) Growth> 20% YoYThis is the leading indicator for the 'Alpha Driver' thesis. Continued hyper-growth in this high-margin segment is critical to the margin expansion narrative and justifies the stock's premium valuation.
Gross Margin RateSequential & YoY ImprovementAn expanding gross margin rate provides direct evidence that the high-margin mix-shift from advertising and marketplace is successfully offsetting inflationary pressures and the lower-margin core retail business.
Core Investment Debate

Margin Expansion vs. Consumer Exhaustion

BULL VIEW

Strategic pivot to asset-light, high-margin revenue streams (ads +27%) is structurally improving profitability, justifying a premium valuation.

CORE TENSION

Can Walmart's high-margin digital business growth (ads, marketplace) outpace the macro pressure on its core, price-sensitive consumer base?

PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH

The prevailing Bearish sentiment is supported by the direct conflict between decelerating forward sales guidance (3-4%) and the high forward P/E of ~45x.

BEAR VIEW

Record consumer credit card debt ($1.233T) and low savings rates (3.5%) will inevitably lead to a sharp pullback in spending, hitting sales guidance.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Feb 19, 2026
Q4 Earnings & FY2027 Guidance
Watch: Gross Margin Rate and FY2027 U.S. Comparable Sales Growth guidance.
Monthly (Next release early March 2026)
Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit Report
Watch: A sharp acceleration in credit card delinquency rates or a sudden halt in revolving credit growth.
During Q4 Earnings Call or Investor Day
Supply Chain Automation Update
Watch: Commentary on delays, cost overruns, or lower-than-expected ROI from the automation capex cycle.
Next 6 Months
Macro Shift / U.S. Treasury Yields
Watch: 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield breaking and holding above 4.5%.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
Aug 21, 2025
Q2 FY2026 Earnings
Details: Despite strong sales growth of 5.6% and raising full-year guidance, the stock fell, reportedly due to concerns over moderating customer visit growth. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
Fell notably by -4.5%
$102.36 -> $97.76
Sep 4, 2025
Strategic Partnership: TalkShopLive Expansion
Details: Expanded its partnership with TalkShopLive for a new weekly livestreaming series, aiming to boost engagement in the collectibles marketplace. [7]
Modest 1.5% gain
$99.23 -> $100.72
Nov 20, 2025
Q3 FY2026 Earnings
Details: Walmart reported strong Q3 results with revenue growth of 5.8% and global eCommerce growth of 27%, leading to a positive market reaction. [14, 31, 34, 35]
Surged +6.5%
$100.40 -> $106.89
Jan 13, 2026
Strategic Partnership: Google AI Integration
Details: Announced a partnership with Google to integrate Walmart's shopping tools directly into Google's AI assistant, Gemini, to compete with Amazon. [20, 32]
Rose significantly by 2.0%
$117.97 -> $120.36
Feb 2, 2026
Product Launch: Walmart Exports Program
Details: Announced the launch of Walmart Exports, a new program to allow U.S. marketplace sellers to ship to customers in Mexico and Canada, leveraging its fulfillment network. [21]
Rose significantly by 4.1%
$119.14 -> $124.06
Feb 3, 2026
Strategic Milestone: $1 Trillion Market Capitalization
Details: Walmart's market value crossed the $1 trillion threshold, a milestone driven by its technology and AI investments that position it beyond a traditional retailer. [13, 16, 25, 32]
Stock surged +7.2%
$119.14 -> $127.71
Risk Management
Position Sizing

1% - 3%

CONSERVATIVE

The moderate volatility profile is manageable, but the Bearish sentiment verdict, driven by significant macro risks, combined with medium visibility, warrants a Conservative sizing. Conviction is low until consumer health trends improve.

Diversification Alternatives
DLTR
INDUSTRY

Pure-play on the value-seeking consumer. Its lower price point could make it a beneficiary of trade-down from Walmart in a severe consumer recession.

Core Thesis: Serves the most price-sensitive consumer segment, offering insulation during economic downturns. Strategic review of Family Dollar could unlock value. [15]
PSMT
INDUSTRY

Offers geographic diversification away from the potentially saturated U.S. market, with operations in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Core Thesis: A membership-based warehouse club model focused on emerging markets, providing a different growth vector than U.S.-centric retailers.
How Is The Market Pricing WMT?

Walmart is re-rating from a low-margin, brick-and-mortar retailer to a tech-enabled, omnichannel ecosystem, with high-margin advertising and membership revenue streams becoming a significant and rapidly growing portion of its profitability.

Filter all news through the lens of the omnichannel and high-margin business transformation. Focus on data that confirms or denies the growth and profitability of e-commerce, advertising, and memberships.

What will confirm the thesis

Global e-commerce growth >20% YoY; Global advertising revenue growth >30% YoY; double-digit growth in Walmart+ membership; market share gains in grocery and general merchandise from higher-income households.

What will damage the thesis

Slowing e-commerce growth below 15%; deceleration in advertising revenue growth; flat or declining membership numbers; loss of market share in key retail categories to Amazon or other competitors.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Quarterly fluctuations in same-store sales (as long as the omnichannel thesis is intact); short-term changes in consumer spending habits due to transient economic factors; individual product wins or losses.

Repricing Catalyst

The rapid scaling of Walmart's global advertising business (reaching nearly $6.4 billion in FY2026 with 46% YoY growth) and membership income (grew over 15% globally in Q4) which together now represent nearly one-third of operating profit. This suggests a structural shift in the company's profit mix towards higher-margin, recurring revenue streams, justifying a potential valuation re-rating.

What WMT Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q4 FY2026 Earnings Release, Feb 19 2026
Walmart U.S. (Retail & eCommerce)
$462.4B TTM (68.0% of Total) · 26.9% Margin
What It Is

Operates supercenters, discount stores, neighborhood markets, and their associated e-commerce website (walmart.com). Sells groceries, general merchandise, and health and wellness products.

Who Pays & How

A broad range of consumers, with recent market share gains from households making over $100,000. Customers choose Walmart for its value proposition (low prices) and increasing convenience (omnichannel shopping options).

Per-unit sale of goods.
Competition
Amazon - Online retail and services
Amazon has a much larger e-commerce market share and a more mature, larger advertising business.
Vast physical store footprint which doubles as fulfillment centers for online orders, strong brand recognition for value, and a massive grocery business.
Walmart International
$121.9B TTM (17.9% of Total) · 21.8% Margin
What It Is

Operates retail stores and e-commerce websites in 19 countries outside the U.S.

Who Pays & How

Consumers in various international markets, with notable strength in China, Walmex, and Flipkart (India).

Per-unit sale of goods.
Competition
Local and regional retailers in each market.
Deep understanding of local consumer preferences and supply chains.
Global scale, supply chain expertise, and investment in e-commerce platforms like Flipkart.
Sam's Club U.S.
$79.8B TTM (11.7% of Total) · 11.2% Margin
What It Is

Membership-only warehouse clubs in the U.S.

Who Pays & How

Members who pay an annual fee for access to bulk-priced goods.

Per-unit sale of goods and annual membership fees.
Competition
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Strong brand loyalty and a similar value proposition.
Large store network and integration with the broader Walmart ecosystem.
High-Margin Services (Advertising & Memberships)
$10.7B TTM (2.4% of Total) · % Margin
What It Is

Advertising services (Walmart Connect) and membership programs (Walmart+ and Sam's Club).

Who Pays & How

Brands pay for advertising to reach Walmart's large customer base. Consumers pay for memberships to get benefits like free shipping and fuel discounts.

Advertising fees and recurring membership subscriptions.
Competition
Amazon Advertising
Amazon has a much larger and more established advertising platform.
Walmart's massive first-party shopper data and omnichannel presence provide a unique advertising proposition.
WMT Evolution: Price Return by Era
1962–1989 · Founding and Expansion
Discount Retail Pioneer
Founded by Sam Walton, Walmart grew rapidly by focusing on offering the lowest prices in small towns and rural areas, supported by a highly efficient supply chain.
1990–2015 · Global Dominance
The World's Largest Retailer
Walmart became the world's largest retailer through the expansion of its Supercenter format and international growth. This era was defined by its scale and logistical prowess.
2016–Present · Omnichannel Transformation
Competing with Amazon +30.9% (Past Year)
Facing intense competition from Amazon, Walmart invested heavily in e-commerce, fulfillment, and technology to transform into an omnichannel retailer. This era is marked by the rapid growth of its online sales, advertising business, and membership programs.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is neutral. The price is in a holding pattern with no clear directional commitment from the moving average stack. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum show mild distribution. The selling pressure is present but not overwhelming. Earnings history is mildly supportive. The reaction or drift are positive but not both at full conviction.
① Structure
0
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
0 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Potential Bottoming · - ▾
2 Momentum Pausing ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Neutral Relative Strength ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Neutral / Mixed ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Flat ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Price Intelligence is derived from price-volume pattern analysis only. All moving averages are simple (SMA). Relative strength benchmarked against SPY.

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