Tearsheet

Ulta Beauty (ULTA)


Market Price (12/14/2025): $599.92 | Market Cap: $26.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Ulta Beauty (ULTA)


Market Price (12/14/2025): $599.92
Market Cap: $26.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2%
 
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ULTA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Ulta Beauty (ULTA) stock moved by 22.1% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 14, 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Financial Performance.

Ulta Beauty reported robust financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, exceeding Wall Street's expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $5.14 against a forecast of $4.52. Revenue also surpassed estimates, reaching $2.86 billion compared to a $2.7 billion forecast. Net sales increased by 12.9% to $2.9 billion, and comparable sales grew by 6.3%. 2. Upgraded Full-Year 2025 Financial Outlook.

Following its strong third-quarter performance, Ulta Beauty raised its full-year fiscal 2025 guidance. The company now expects net sales to be approximately $12.3 billion, an increase from its prior range of $12.0 billion to $12.1 billion. Comparable sales growth is projected between 4.4% and 4.7%, up from the previous 2.5% to 3.5% range. Diluted EPS for the full year is also forecasted higher, between $25.20 and $25.50.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ULTA Return13%44%14%4%-11%36%134%
Peers Return41%57%-14%26%-18%-4%88%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ULTA Win Rate50%67%67%58%42%58% 
Peers Win Rate55%67%45%55%47%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ULTA Max Drawdown-49%-3%-17%-21%-35%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-6%-45%-34%-33%-43% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EL, TGT, SBH, ELF, BBWI. See ULTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventULTAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven129 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven134.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven302 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven397 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-87.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven725.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven632 days1480 days

Compare to EL, SBH, TSCO, ULTA, CHWY


In The Past

Ulta Beauty's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2023. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

Better Bets than Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ULTA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
ULTA_2282025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02282025ULTAUlta BeautyDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
34.5%64.2%-14.2%
ULTA_7312024_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312024ULTAUlta BeautyDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.5%41.1%-13.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
ULTA_2282025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02282025ULTAUlta BeautyDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
34.5%64.2%-14.2%
ULTA_7312024_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312024ULTAUlta BeautyDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.5%41.1%-13.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ulta Beauty

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ULTAELTGTSBHELFBBWIMedian
NameUlta Bea.Estee La.Target Sally Be.e.l.f. B.Bath & B. 
Mkt Price601.59104.1097.0915.5076.3620.0586.72
Mkt Cap24.537.540.71.64.55.314.9
Rev LTM11,98214,326105,2423,7011,3867,3549,668
Op Inc LTM1,5861,1415,2043281361,2051,173
FCF LTM1,0426703,009173142946808
FCF 3Y Avg9611843,73215991789487
CFO LTM1,3591,2726,7742751721,1801,226
CFO 3Y Avg1,3491,7887,6462571051,0471,198

Growth & Margins

ULTAELTGTSBHELFBBWIMedian
NameUlta Bea.Estee La.Target Sally Be.e.l.f. B.Bath & B. 
Rev Chg LTM5.5%-8.2%-2.2%-0.4%13.8%-1.0%-0.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.3%-6.8%-1.1%-1.0%47.9%-1.5%-1.0%
Rev Chg Q12.9%-11.9%-1.6%1.3%14.2%-1.0%0.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.8%-3.1%-0.4%0.3%3.2%-0.2%0.1%
Op Mgn LTM13.2%8.0%4.9%8.9%9.8%16.4%9.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.0%9.7%5.1%8.5%12.5%16.8%11.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-1.1%-0.2%-0.1%-1.8%-0.7%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM11.3%8.9%6.4%7.4%12.4%16.0%10.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.8%11.6%7.2%6.9%9.8%14.2%10.7%
FCF/Rev LTM8.7%4.7%2.9%4.7%10.2%12.9%6.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%1.4%3.5%4.3%8.7%10.7%6.3%

Valuation

ULTAELTGTSBHELFBBWIMedian
NameUlta Bea.Estee La.Target Sally Be.e.l.f. B.Bath & B. 
Mkt Cap24.537.540.71.64.55.314.9
P/S2.02.20.40.43.20.71.4
P/EBIT--46.5--55.8-4.7
P/E20.6-28.110.88.254.57.69.5
P/CFO18.025.06.05.825.94.512.0
Total Yield4.9%-3.6%14.3%12.2%1.8%16.4%8.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%5.0%0.0%0.0%3.2%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.0%--1.3%-1.2%
D/E-0.3--0.1-0.2
Net D/E-0.2--0.1-0.1

Returns

ULTAELTGTSBHELFBBWIMedian
NameUlta Bea.Estee La.Target Sally Be.e.l.f. B.Bath & B. 
1M Rtn12.7%16.2%7.1%7.3%2.6%-7.7%7.2%
3M Rtn16.9%24.9%9.3%3.3%-43.5%-25.4%6.3%
6M Rtn31.0%55.8%4.2%82.8%-39.0%-18.9%17.6%
12M Rtn41.8%32.4%-24.6%24.3%-45.7%-45.8%-0.2%
3Y Rtn30.0%-55.9%-29.3%26.8%35.6%-48.8%-1.3%
1M Excs Rtn12.7%13.9%6.0%5.9%-1.4%-9.0%6.0%
3M Excs Rtn11.1%16.3%7.8%-5.0%-50.3%-26.5%1.4%
6M Excs Rtn16.8%41.6%-10.0%68.6%-53.3%-33.1%3.4%
12M Excs Rtn32.9%15.2%-38.1%8.8%-57.6%-59.4%-14.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-48.2%-126.3%-103.5%-35.3%-33.4%-123.3%-75.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Retail stores, salon services, and e-commerce11,207    
Cosmetics 4,2883,7112,7683,699
Fragrance 1,4291,208738 
Haircare 2,1441,7261,2301,406
Other 306259246 
Services 306259185370
Skincare 1,7351,467984 
Other (nail products, accessories, and other)    296
Skincare, Bath & Fragrance    1,628
Total11,20710,2098,6316,1527,398


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Retail stores, salon services, and e-commerce1,291    
Total1,291    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,300,622
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520250.8%
Average Daily Volume569,760
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.04
Basic Shares Quantity44,731,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/4/202512.7%  
8/28/2025-7.1%-3.0%4.3%
5/29/202511.8%10.7%10.9%
3/13/202513.7%8.4%14.9%
12/5/20249.0%7.9%9.0%
8/29/2024-4.0%0.0%5.9%
5/30/20242.5%-0.2%-0.3%
3/14/2024-5.2%-7.4%-23.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121213
# Negative121211
Median Positive7.4%5.9%5.8%
Median Negative-3.6%-3.0%-5.2%
Max Positive13.7%15.0%14.9%
Max Negative-13.4%-26.0%-23.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251204202510-Q 11/1/2025
7312025828202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025529202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025327202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241205202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024829202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024530202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024326202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231130202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023824202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023525202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023324202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221201202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022825202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022526202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022325202210-K 1/29/2022

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Steelman KeciaPresident and CEO3242025Buy346.891,440499,5285,894,431Form