TJX Companies (TJX)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $150.45 | Market Cap: $167.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
TJX Companies (TJX)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $150.45Market Cap: $167.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 6.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.9 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Consumption, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x Key risksTJX key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on its physical "treasure-hunt" retail model given a minimal e-commerce presence and [2] a potential failure to execute its core opportunistic buying and inventory management strategy. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 6.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.9 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Consumption, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x |
| Key risksTJX key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on its physical "treasure-hunt" retail model given a minimal e-commerce presence and [2] a potential failure to execute its core opportunistic buying and inventory management strategy. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q4 FY26 Performance Met with Conservative FY27 Guidance.
The TJX Companies reported robust fourth-quarter fiscal year 2026 results on February 25, 2026, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.58, marking a 28% increase year-over-year, and consolidated comparable store sales up 5%, both exceeding company plans. Net sales for the quarter reached $17.7 billion, a 9% rise from the previous year, and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.43 surpassed consensus estimates of $1.38. The company also announced a 13% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.48 per share and authorized a new stock repurchase program of $2.5 billion to $2.75 billion for fiscal year 2027. However, this strong performance was tempered by the company's fiscal year 2027 guidance, which projected consolidated comparable sales growth of only 2-3%, a notable slowdown compared to the 5% growth achieved in FY26.
2. Mixed Retail Environment with Continued Consumer Value-Seeking.
The stock's stability was influenced by a retail landscape characterized by both resilience and caution. In the first quarter of 2026, consumers remained highly value-oriented, benefiting off-price retailers like TJX, with the segment continuing to lead in apparel performance amidst an otherwise mixed apparel market. Despite modest retail traffic growth (up 1.5% year-over-year for brick-and-mortar), broader macroeconomic pressures, including rising unemployment and declining consumer confidence in April 2026, led to a more cautious approach to discretionary spending.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.6% change in TJX stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 149.39 | 150.26 | 0.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 58,979 | 60,372 | 2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.7% | 9.1% | 4.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.5 | 30.4 | -6.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,112 | 1,111 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TJX | 0.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 28.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.2% | 43.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.8% change in TJX stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 139.34 | 150.26 | 7.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57,925 | 60,372 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.2 | 30.4 | -2.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,115 | 1,111 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TJX | 7.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 20.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.0% | 37.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.2% change in TJX stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 127.13 | 150.26 | 18.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 56,360 | 60,372 | 7.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.6% | 9.1% | 5.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.3 | 30.4 | 3.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,122 | 1,111 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TJX | 18.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.6% | 26.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 20.9% | 36.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 98.5% change in TJX stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 75.68 | 150.26 | 98.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 49,936 | 60,372 | 20.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.0% | 9.1% | 29.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.0 | 30.4 | 21.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,157 | 1,111 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 98.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TJX | 98.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.4% | 43.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 64.0% | 46.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TJX Return | 13% | 7% | 20% | 31% | 29% | -3% | 135% |
| Peers Return | 94% | -11% | 15% | 2% | 31% | -7% | 148% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TJX Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 40% | 52% | 48% | 57% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TJX Max Drawdown | -8% | -27% | -7% | -2% | -6% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -42% | -29% | -22% | -34% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ROST, BURL, M, DDS, KSS. See TJX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TJX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 188 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -10.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 62 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -14.3% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
TJX Companies's stock fell -8.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 9.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | TJX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 188 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
TJX Companies's stock fell -8.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 9.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About TJX Companies (TJX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for TJX Companies:
- It's like a department store, such as Macy's or Kohl's, but dedicated to selling brand-name apparel and home goods at significantly discounted, off-price rates.
- Think of it as a permanent, large-scale treasure hunt for brand-name fashion and home decor, offering deep discounts similar to finding a great deal at Nordstrom.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Family Apparel: TJX Companies offers a wide range of clothing for the entire family, including footwear and accessories.
- Home Fashions: The company provides various home decor and furnishing items, such as furniture, rugs, lighting, kitchenware, and decorative accessories.
- Jewelry and Accessories: Customers can find an assortment of jewelry and other fashion accessories across its retail banners.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The TJX Companies (symbol: TJX) primarily sells to individuals through its numerous retail stores and e-commerce websites. Its major customer categories can be described as:
- Value-conscious Shoppers: Individuals and families seeking brand-name apparel, footwear, accessories, and home goods at discounted, off-price points. This segment includes a broad demographic looking for quality products without paying full retail prices.
- Home Decorators and Furnishers: Customers looking to furnish, decorate, or refresh their homes with a variety of home fashions, including furniture, rugs, lighting, kitchenware, and decorative items, often seeking unique finds and affordability.
- Fashion-Forward Consumers: Individuals interested in current and past season fashion trends for apparel, jewelry, and accessories, who appreciate the thrill of discovering branded merchandise at a lower cost.
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Ernie Herrman Chief Executive Officer and President
Ernie Herrman joined TJX in 1989 as a buyer. He has held numerous merchandising and senior operating roles within the company, including President of Marmaxx, and Senior Executive Vice President, Group President with responsibilities for Marmaxx, HomeGoods, and TJX Canada. He was appointed President of TJX in 2011 and became Chief Executive Officer in 2016.
John Klinger Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
John Klinger was promoted to Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, effective January 29, 2023. He joined TJX in 2000 as a Manager of Business Analysis at Marmaxx. His career at TJX includes various finance positions with increasing responsibility across different divisions like HomeGoods and Marmaxx, as well as roles such as VP, Divisional CFO for AJWright, VP, Corporate Finance, and SVP, Divisional CFO for TJX Europe. He served as SVP, Corporate Controller, and later Executive Vice President, Corporate Controller before his current appointment. Prior to joining TJX, he worked at the Stride Rite company starting in 1994.
Carol Meyrowitz Executive Chairman of the Board
Carol Meyrowitz has served as Executive Chairman of the Board since 2016. Previously, she was Chief Executive Officer of TJX from 2007 to 2016 and President from 2005 to 2011. Her extensive career at TJX also includes holding senior management and merchandising positions with Marmaxx, Chadwick's of Boston, and Hit or Miss, former divisions of TJX, from 1983 to 2001.
Peter Benjamin Senior Executive Vice President; Group President
Peter Benjamin holds the title of Senior Executive Vice President and Group President at TJX Companies.
Ken Canestrari Senior Executive Vice President; Group President
Ken Canestrari serves as Senior Executive Vice President and Group President at TJX Companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to TJX Companies:
- Impact of Global Economic Conditions and Consumer Discretionary Spending: TJX Companies faces significant risk from external market volatility, global economic conditions, and their direct impact on consumer confidence and discretionary spending. A deterioration in the broader economy or specific markets can lead to reduced foot traffic and lower sales volumes across TJX's store network. Even with its resilient off-price model, a substantial economic slowdown could still adversely affect the company's financial performance by impacting consumer willingness to spend on apparel and home fashions.
- Execution of Opportunistic Buying Strategy and Inventory Management: The core of TJX's off-price business model relies on its ability to opportunistically buy merchandise, operate with lean inventory levels, and achieve frequent inventory turns. A key risk is the failure to effectively execute this strategy, which includes obtaining and allocating the right merchandise at the right times, in the right quantities, at the right prices, with the right mix, and in the right geographies. Any missteps in this process could adversely affect customer transactions, sales, margins, and other financial results.
- Competitive Pressures, E-commerce Vulnerability, and Rising Operating Costs: TJX operates in highly competitive retail markets, facing challenges from both traditional retailers and the growing influence of e-commerce. While TJX has an online presence, its revenue is primarily generated from in-store purchases, leaving it vulnerable to a significant, sustained shift in consumer behavior towards pure e-commerce. Additionally, the company faces internal operational risks such as rising store wages and payroll expenses, which directly impact selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) costs and can put pressure on profitability.
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The accelerated growth and mainstream adoption of online resale and recommerce platforms.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for TJX Companies' main products and services, off-price apparel and home fashions, across its operating regions are substantial.
United States
In the United States, the apparel market was valued at approximately USD 353.20 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to nearly USD 447.73 billion by 2034. The broader U.S. clothing and apparel market is also projected to reach USD 482.1 billion by 2032. The off-price retail market for apparel and footwear alone reached USD 101 billion in 2024. In 2024, the U.S. home furnishing market generated a revenue of approximately USD 252.3 billion, with projections to reach around USD 412.1 billion by 2030. The U.S. household furniture market was valued at USD 91.1 billion in 2024, and is expected to increase to USD 118.6 billion by 2032. Additionally, the United States home decor market was valued at USD 215.21 billion in 2025 and is expected to increase to USD 292.71 billion by 2031.
Canada
For Canada, the apparel market is projected to reach US$18.67 billion in 2024. Another estimate placed the apparel market at US$39.63 billion in 2023. The home furnishing market in Canada generated a revenue of approximately USD 94.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach about USD 147.3 billion by 2030. The retail furniture market in Canada was approximately US$17 billion in 2024. The Canada home furniture market reached USD 9.40 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 13.21 billion by 2031. Another report indicated the Canada Home Furniture Market was valued at USD 18.5 Billion in 2023, anticipated to exceed USD 30.5 Billion by 2033.
Europe
The apparel market size in Europe was valued at USD 375.98 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 601.77 billion by 2034. The European apparel retail industry had total revenues of $402.9 billion in 2022. The off-price fashion retail market in Europe was valued at USD 222.75 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 346.15 billion by 2032. The European home furnishing market was valued at USD 94 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 129.23 billion by 2033. The Europe home furniture market size is projected to be USD 97.22 billion in 2025 and reach USD 118.83 billion by 2031. The European retail furniture market was worth EUR 165 billion (approximately USD 178.2 billion) in 2024.
Australia
In Australia, the apparel market size is estimated to be AUD 33.88 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach AUD 45.53 billion by 2035. The Australian fashion market was valued at approximately AUD 31.93 billion in 2023. The home furniture market in Australia was valued at USD 16.79 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 27.05 billion by 2030. The Australia furniture and home furnishing market was valued at AUD 14.63 billion in 2025. The Australia home decor market generated a revenue of USD 8.71 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 17.65 billion by 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The TJX Companies (TJX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies: * **Aggressive Global Store Expansion:** TJX plans to significantly expand its physical footprint by opening a substantial number of new stores across its various banners and geographies. The company aims for a long-term goal of 7,000 stores globally. For fiscal year 2027, TJX projects opening 146 net new stores, bringing its total to over 5,300 worldwide. This expansion includes adding locations in the U.S. (Marmaxx, HomeGoods, Sierra, HomeSense), Canada, Europe, and Australia, with a notable new market entry into Spain. * **Sustained Comparable Store Sales Growth:** The company anticipates continued growth in comparable store sales, driven by an increase in customer transactions and a higher average basket size. This reflects the enduring appeal of its off-price model, offering a "treasure hunt" shopping experience and strong value proposition to a wide range of customers. TJX expects overall comparable sales growth of 2% to 3% for fiscal year 2027. * **E-commerce Expansion and Integration:** While maintaining a strong brick-and-mortar focus, TJX is also investing in and growing its e-commerce businesses, including tjmaxx.com, marshalls.com, sierra.com, and tkmaxx.com in Europe. These online platforms complement its physical stores, helping to reach a wider customer base and adapt to evolving consumer shopping habits, with e-commerce sales showing double-digit growth. * **Increased Market Share Capture:** TJX is positioned to gain market share, particularly from other retailers, including traditional department stores that are closing locations. The company's off-price model, which benefits from opportunistic buying and offering branded merchandise at significant discounts, is well-suited to attract value-seeking consumers and capitalize on shifts in the retail landscape.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- TJX Companies plans to repurchase between $2.5 billion and $2.75 billion worth of its stock during the fiscal year concluding on January 30, 2027.
- In February 2026, the board of directors sanctioned a new initiative to repurchase an additional $3 billion in common stock.
- The company repurchased $2.513 billion in fiscal 2025, $2.484 billion in fiscal 2024, and $2.255 billion in fiscal 2023.
Outbound Investments
- In fiscal year 2025, TJX Companies entered into a joint venture with Grupo Axo in Mexico, acquiring a 49% stake in Multibrand Outlet Stores.
- The company also acquired a 35% stake in Brands For Less, operating in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, during fiscal year 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Expected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2027 are projected to be in the range of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion.
- These expenditures are primarily focused on opening new stores, executing remodels and relocations, and making investments in the distribution network and infrastructure to support growth.
- Capital expenditures have increased from a low of $568 million in fiscal year 2021 to $1.918 billion in fiscal year 2025, with an average of $1.342 billion over the fiscal years ending January 2021 to 2025.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| TJX Stock Falls -6.3% In 8-day Spree On Broad Retail Sector Fears | 01/30/2026 | |
| TJX Stock Falls -6.1% With A 7-day Losing Spree On Retail Sector Fears | 01/29/2026 | |
| TJX Companies Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| TJX Capital Return Hits $30 Bil in 10 Years | 10/28/2025 | |
| Is TJX Companies Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy TJX Companies Stock | 08/21/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 04/02/2026 | |
| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 11/22/2025 | |
| How Will TJX Companies Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | 11/18/2025 | |
| TJX Companies Stock Hands $30 Bil Back – Worth a Look? | 10/28/2025 | |
| Now is not the time to buy TJX Companies stock | 08/21/2025 |
Trade Ideas
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 183.96 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.2 |
| Rev LTM | 19,074 |
| Op Inc LTM | 864 |
| FCF LTM | 849 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 627 |
| CFO LTM | 1,405 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,202 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.2 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 16.8 |
| P/EBIT | 15.9 |
| P/E | 22.2 |
| P/CFO | 13.2 |
| Total Yield | 8.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 44.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 81.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 24.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $150.26 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 166.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/05/1988 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $157.67 | $148.56 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -4.7% | 1.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.8% | 17.1% |
| Downside Capture | 33.13 | 22.40 |
| Upside Capture | 17.69 | 32.95 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 34.6% | 27.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.04 | 0.69 | 0.39 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| Up Beta | 1.29 | 1.27 | 0.97 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| Down Beta | -2.67 | 0.74 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.37 |
| Up Capture | 29% | 28% | 31% | 24% | 29% | 29% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 32 | 63 | 125 | 395 |
| Down Capture | 231% | 60% | 7% | 2% | 25% | 67% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 25 | 32 | 62 | 126 | 356 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TJX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | 18.8% | 17.3% | 0.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 17.9% | 18.7% | 0.74 | 36.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 32.5% | 12.4% | 1.98 | 26.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 41.3% | 26.9% | 1.26 | -1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.3% | 18.5% | 2.06 | -27.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 34.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.0% | 41.7% | -0.46 | -3.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TJX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | 17.9% | 22.3% | 0.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.0% | 23.8% | 0.25 | 54.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.7% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 52.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.0% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.4% | 19.4% | 0.47 | 0.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 45.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 55.9% | 0.34 | 17.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TJX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | 16.2% | 26.0% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 60.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 60.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.9% | 0.39 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 54.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 12.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/25/2026 | -1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| 11/19/2025 | 0.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% |
| 8/20/2025 | 2.7% | 1.5% | 3.9% |
| 5/21/2025 | -2.9% | -6.5% | -8.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | 1.8% | -0.8% | -2.4% |
| 11/20/2024 | 0.2% | 5.6% | 1.4% |
| 8/21/2024 | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
| 5/22/2024 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 13.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -3.7% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 8.9% | 13.6% |
| Max Negative | -5.4% | -7.5% | -9.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/31/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 04/02/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 04/03/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/29/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Comparable Sales Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | ||||
| Q1 2027 Pretax Profit Margin | 10.3% | 10.35% | 10.4% | ||||
| Q1 2027 EPS | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.99 | ||||
| 2027 Comparable Sales Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | -37.5% | Lower New | Actual: 4.0% for 2026 | |
| 2027 Pretax Profit Margin | 11.7% | 11.75% | 11.8% | 1.3% | Higher New | Actual: 11.6% for 2026 | |
| 2027 EPS | 4.93 | 4.97 | 5.02 | 7.1% | Higher New | Actual: 4.64 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Share Repurchases | 2.50 Bil | 2.62 Bil | 2.75 Bil | 5.0% | Higher New | Actual: 2.50 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/19/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Consolidated Comparable Sales Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2026 Pretax Profit Margin | 11.7% | 11.75% | 11.8% | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2026 Diluted EPS | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.36 | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Consolidated Comparable Sales Growth | 4.0% | 33.3% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 3.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Pretax Profit Margin | 11.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 11.45% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | 4.63 | 4.64 | 4.66 | 2.2% | Raised | Guidance: 4.54 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 2.50 Bil | 11.1% | Raised | Guidance: 2.25 Bil for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Herrman, Ernie | CEO & President | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 160.95 | 30,000 | 4,828,500 | 77,145,910 | Form |
| 2 | Lane, Amy B | Direct | Buy | 2032026 | 66.13 | 22 | 1,478 | 1,918,123 | Form | |
| 3 | Lane, Amy B | Family Member | Buy | 2032026 | 66.13 | 2 | 119 | 29,657 | Form | |
| 4 | Lane, Amy B | Direct | Buy | 2032026 | 71.26 | 21 | 1,473 | 2,065,299 | Form | |
| 5 | Lane, Amy B | Family Member | Buy | 2032026 | 71.26 | 2 | 119 | 31,830 | Form |
TJX Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
TJX is a high-quality, well-managed market leader with a durable moat. However, the investment thesis presents a symmetrical risk/reward profile at its current valuation. The strong tailwind from a value-seeking consumer is offset by decelerating growth guidance and tangible margin risks from wage inflation. The stock is fairly priced, reflecting its strengths and near-term challenges, warranting a 'Market Weight' rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type B: 'Quality Compounder / Stalwart'TJX is a mature, market-leading retailer with a durable moat, consistent earnings, strong free cash flow conversion, and a commitment to shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends. Its growth is steady rather than explosive, fitting the 'Stalwart' profile.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is that TJX's massive, difficult-to-replicate global sourcing network provides it with superior access to a plentiful supply of off-price merchandise. This allows TJX to offer a compelling value proposition to consumers, driving consistent store traffic and enabling it to take market share from less efficient, full-price retailers in a value-conscious consumer environment.
- Global buying organization of over 1,400 buyers with access to 21,000 vendors
- Management describes the availability of quality off-price merchandise as 'outstanding' and 'plentiful'
- Reported 5% comparable store sales growth in Q4 FY26, demonstrating resilient consumer demand
- The off-price retail market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.9% through 2033, providing a structural tailwind
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is that persistent wage inflation, driven by widespread minimum wage increases, will outpace TJX's ability to generate offsetting cost efficiencies or price increases. This would lead to SG&A deleverage and compress pretax profit margins, potentially causing an earnings miss and a negative re-rating of the stock.
- Management cited 'incremental store wage and payroll costs' as a headwind in Q3 FY26
- Minimum wage increases are set to take effect in numerous jurisdictions in 2026, many reaching or exceeding $15/hour
- Guidance for FY27 comparable store sales is a deceleration to 2-3% from 5% in FY26, making it harder to absorb fixed cost increases
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidated Comparable Store Sales Growth | > 3.0% | Must exceed the high end of guidance (2-3%) to validate the bull thesis that the value proposition is still accelerating market share gains. |
| Adjusted Pretax Profit Margin | Stable YoY (approx. 11.7%) | The key metric to watch to see if merchandise margin strength is successfully offsetting SG&A pressure from wage inflation. |
| Inventory Growth vs. Sales Growth | Inventory growth rate must not exceed sales growth rate by more than 500 bps. | A widening gap between inventory growth (14% in FY26) and sales growth (7% in FY26) could signal future markdown risk. This spread needs to narrow. |
Margin Resilience vs. Wage Inflation Headwind
BULL VIEW
Superior global sourcing provides access to plentiful, high-margin merchandise, enabling TJX to absorb rising wage costs without sacrificing profitability.
CORE TENSION
Can strong merchandise margins and buying power offset escalating SG&A pressure from widespread minimum wage increases, or will margin compression break the earnings consistency narrative?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The forward guidance for FY27 comparable sales to decelerate to 2-3% from 5% in FY26 gives the bear case near-term credibility, shifting focus to margin preservation.
BEAR VIEW
Guided deceleration in same-store sales (to 2-3%) will prevent TJX from leveraging fixed costs, leading to SG&A deleverage as wage inflation hits.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late May 2026 | Q1 FY27 Earnings Call Watch: Watch for SG&A as a percentage of sales. An increase from prior year would confirm the bear thesis on wage pressure deleverage. |
Late August 2026 | Q2 FY27 Earnings Call Watch: Consolidated Comparable Store Sales Growth. Must meet or exceed the 2-3% guidance range established in Q4 FY26. |
Next 6 Months (Ongoing) | Major Apparel Brands Earnings (e.g., Nike) Watch: Listen for commentary on 'improved inventory management' or 'higher full-price sell-through,' which would signal a reduced supply of quality goods for TJX. |
Next 3-6 Months | NY Fed Q1 & Q2 2026 Delinquency Data Watch: Sequential changes in the 90+ day credit card delinquency rate. An increase signals stress on TJX's core consumer demographic. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Oct 31, 2025 | Start of Q4 Holiday Shopping Season Details: The crucial holiday season began, representing a significant portion of annual sales and a key test of consumer health and demand for off-price goods. | Slight -1.51% pullback $141.48 -> $139.34 |
Nov 1, 2025 | Key Competitor Reports Strong Results Details: Ross Stores reported strong Q3 results with 7% comparable sales growth, confirming robust sector-wide demand for off-price retail ahead of TJX's own report. | Flat (0.19%) $139.34 -> $139.61 |
Nov 20, 2025 | Q3 FY26 Earnings Report Details: Delivered strong Q3 results with +5.0% comparable store sales growth. Management cited 'incremental store wage and payroll costs' as a headwind, foreshadowing the primary debate. | Modest 1.55% gain $145.39 -> $147.65 |
Feb 25, 2026 | Strategic Update: Dividend and Buyback Details: Announced a 13% dividend increase to $0.48/share and a plan for $2.5-$2.75 billion in share repurchases for FY27, reinforcing commitment to shareholder returns. | Slight -1.17% pullback $157.66 -> $155.82 |
Feb 25, 2026 | Q4 FY26 Earnings and FY27 Guidance Details: Reported Q4 comps of +5% and EPS beat. However, stock fell on conservative FY27 guidance for 2-3% comps, signaling a growth slowdown. | Slight -1.17% pullback $157.66 -> $155.82 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Volatility is moderate but spiking. The investment case is balanced: a resilient moat and fair valuation are offset by a Neutral sentiment verdict and guided growth deceleration. This warrants a standard allocation.
Diversification Alternatives
ROST
SECTORROST demonstrated stronger near-term momentum, with 9% comps versus TJX's 5% in the last reported quarter, offering a 'faster' play on the same off-price trend.
DLTR
SECTORA more direct play on the most price-sensitive consumer. The shift to a multi-price point strategy offers a catalyst for margin improvement and broader assortment.
Not explicitly stated in the enclosed information.
Not explicitly stated in the enclosed information.
Consistent traffic growth and market share gains from department stores accelerate the re-rate.
A sharp, prolonged downturn in consumer discretionary spending or a disruption to the supply of off-price goods would slow or break the re-rate.
Not explicitly stated in the enclosed information.
Repricing Catalyst
Consistent traffic growth and market share gains from department stores (revenue magnitude and timeline not specified in enclosed information).
T.J. Maxx & Marshalls Off-Price Apparel and Home Fashions
$0.0B TTM (% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Off-price apparel, accessories, and home fashion goods from various brands.
Who Pays & How
General public seeking value and variety through a 'treasure hunt' shopping experience, with low switching costs but high repeat engagement due to perceived value.
Competition
HomeGoods Home Fashion
$0.0B TTM (% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Off-price home decor, furniture, and kitchenware.
Who Pays & How
General public seeking affordable and unique home fashion items, driven by the 'treasure hunt' model and perceived value over full-price retailers.
Competition
TJX International Off-Price Retail
$0.0B TTM (% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Off-price apparel, home fashion, and other general merchandise across various global regions (e.g., TJX Canada, TJX International, HomeSense, Winners, Marshalls).
Who Pays & How
International consumers seeking value-priced, branded merchandise, benefiting from TJX's global sourcing capabilities and adapted local offerings.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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