Target (TGT)
Market Price (3/25/2026): $116.8 | Market Cap: $52.9 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Target (TGT)
Market Price (3/25/2026): $116.8Market Cap: $52.9 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 5.4% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86% | Key risksTGT key risks include [1] a failure to adapt its merchandise and fulfillment strategies to evolving consumer preferences and [2] managing significant inventory losses from damage, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 5.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.5% |
| Key risksTGT key risks include [1] a failure to adapt its merchandise and fulfillment strategies to evolving consumer preferences and [2] managing significant inventory losses from damage, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Target exceeded fourth-quarter 2025 earnings expectations and provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal year 2026.
The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.44 for Q4 2025, surpassing analyst forecasts and higher than the $2.41 reported in the prior year period. Furthermore, Target projected full-year 2026 EPS between $7.50 and $8.50, with the midpoint of this range exceeding market expectations. This positive guidance, coupled with an improved gross margin rate of 26.6% in Q4 2025 (up from 26.2% in 2024 due to lower inventory shrink and supply chain costs), and accelerating sales trends in the last two months of the quarter, fueled investor confidence. A key indicator was a healthy, positive sales increase in February 2026, marking the first such signal after several quarters of declines.
2. The company announced a substantial $2 billion incremental investment in its strategic growth plan for 2026.
Target outlined a multi-year growth strategy, committing an additional $2 billion in 2026, split between approximately $1 billion in capital expenditures and $1 billion in operating investments. These investments are targeted at enhancing the customer experience, modernizing stores (with plans for over 130 full-store remodels and opening more than 30 new locations, including its 2,000th store in March 2026), and accelerating technology-driven growth, including AI-driven tools. This aggressive reinvestment signals management's commitment to future profitable growth under new CEO Michael Fiddelke.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.2% change in TGT stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.71 | 115.92 | 29.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 105,242 | 104,780 | -0.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.6% | 3.5% | -1.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.8 | 14.2 | 31.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 454 | 453 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TGT | 29.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -4.1% | 19.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 3.0% | 32.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.5% change in TGT stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 93.83 | 115.92 | 23.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 105,640 | 104,780 | -0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.7% | 3.5% | -4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.9 | 14.2 | 30.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 455 | 453 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TGT | 23.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 30.0% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.9% | 40.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.4% change in TGT stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 118.80 | 115.92 | -2.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 107,570 | 104,780 | -2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.1% | 3.5% | -13.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.5 | 14.2 | 13.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 460 | 453 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TGT | -2.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.2% | 51.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 0.3% | 43.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.3% change in TGT stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 151.23 | 115.92 | -23.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 108,721 | 104,780 | -3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.2% | 3.5% | 11.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.2 | 14.2 | -29.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 460 | 453 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TGT | -23.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 71.5% | 36.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 22.1% | 38.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TGT Return | 33% | -34% | -1% | -2% | -24% | 19% | -24% |
| Peers Return | 32% | -18% | 32% | 42% | 4% | 5% | 122% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TGT Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 67% | 68% | 52% | 73% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TGT Max Drawdown | -3% | -39% | -28% | -12% | -35% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -27% | -4% | -3% | -12% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WMT, AMZN, COST, HD, KR. See TGT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TGT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 243 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 176.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,508 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WMT, AMZN, COST, HD, KR
In The Past
Target's stock fell -60.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -60.6% loss requires a 153.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Target (TGT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- A more stylish and curated Walmart.
- Like a department store such as Macy's or Kohl's, but also selling groceries and household essentials.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Food Assortments: Offers a wide range of perishable, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen food items.
- Apparel & Accessories: Provides clothing, jewelry, and other fashion accessories.
- Home Décor Products: Sells items designed for furnishing and decorating the home.
- Electronics: Features a selection of consumer electronic devices.
- Toys: Offers a variety of playthings for children.
- Seasonal Offerings: Provides merchandise specifically tailored to holidays, events, or changing seasons.
- Beauty and Household Essentials: Sells cosmetics, skincare, personal care, and cleaning supplies.
- In-Store Amenities (Services): Offers convenience services such as Target Café, Target Optical, Starbucks, and other food service options within its stores.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Target (TGT) sells primarily to individuals (consumers) through its stores and digital channels. Based on its product offerings and market positioning, the major categories of customers it serves include:
- Families and Households: A significant portion of Target's customer base consists of families and individuals responsible for managing households. They shop for a wide array of necessities, including groceries, apparel for all ages, home essentials, school supplies, toys, and electronics, making Target a convenient one-stop shop for family needs.
- Value-conscious Shoppers: Target appeals to customers seeking good value and affordability. While offering quality products, Target maintains competitive pricing and features strong private label brands (e.g., Up&Up, Good & Gather, Cat & Jack) that provide cost-effective alternatives, attracting shoppers who prioritize getting more for their money.
- Lifestyle and Trend-focused Shoppers: Target has successfully positioned itself as a retailer that offers stylish and on-trend merchandise at accessible prices. This category includes shoppers interested in modern home décor, fashionable apparel, seasonal items, and innovative electronics, often influenced by designer collaborations and curated product selections that cater to contemporary lifestyles.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Procter & Gamble (PG)
- PepsiCo (PEP)
- Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- General Mills (GIS)
- Hasbro (HAS)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Michael Fiddelke, Chief Executive Officer
Michael Fiddelke became Chief Executive Officer of Target Corporation effective February 1, 2026. He joined Target in 2004, starting his career as an intern, and has held various leadership positions across finance, merchandising, human resources, and operations. Prior to becoming CEO, Fiddelke served as Chief Operating Officer and, before that, as Chief Financial Officer from 2019 to 2024. Before joining Target, he worked at Deloitte Consulting, LLP for three years. Fiddelke also serves on the executive committee of the National Retail Federation and on the board of the Retail Industry Leaders Association. He is also a board member for Shipt, a same-day delivery company acquired by Target in 2017.
Jim Lee, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Jim Lee was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Target, effective September 22, 2024. In this role, he is responsible for Target's corporate finance, enterprise strategy, enterprise partnerships, and corporate development. Lee joined Target after more than 25 years of finance, business, and strategy leadership experience at PepsiCo, where he most recently served as Deputy Chief Financial Officer. His experience at PepsiCo included leading finance teams for its international business and overseeing global tax, treasury, and investor relations. He also held the position of chief strategy and transformation officer for PepsiCo Beverages North America, which involved business development and mergers and acquisitions. Lee has served on multiple boards, including Tropicana Brands Group and Celsius Holdings.
Cara Sylvester, Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer
Cara Sylvester was named Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer, effective February 15, 2026. She previously served as Chief Guest Experience Officer. Sylvester has been with Target for over 18 years, holding various merchandising positions throughout her tenure. Her expertise spans digital, loyalty, and marketing, and she has a track record of driving revenue, profitability, and market share.
Lisa Roath, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Lisa Roath was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective February 15, 2026. Before this, she was the chief merchandising officer of food, essentials, and beauty. Roath brings expertise in leading an end-to-end retail operation, encompassing merchandising, supply chain, and stores. She has been employed by Target since 2006.
Melissa Kremer, Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer
Melissa Kremer is Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer for Target. She joined Target in 2004 as a recruiter. Throughout her career at Target, Kremer has held various HR leadership positions, supporting major commercial businesses and leading key talent functions such as recruiting, learning, leadership development, talent management, and strategic workforce planning. She also held human resources positions at Cargill prior to joining Target. Kremer has been instrumental in driving HR strategies for Target's organizational transformation, including large-scale structural and operational changes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Target Corporation (TGT) faces several key risks, primarily stemming from evolving consumer behaviors, operational challenges, and intense market competition.
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Consumer Spending Habits and Economic Conditions: A significant portion, approximately 80%, of Target's sales are in discretionary categories, making the company highly susceptible to fluctuations in consumer spending. In environments characterized by high interest rates or inflation, consumers tend to reduce discretionary purchases, directly impacting Target's top-line revenue and pressuring profit margins. This economic sensitivity has led to comparable sales declines, particularly in areas like home goods and apparel, as shoppers scale back. The current economic climate has also seen budget retailers and wholesale clubs gain market share from Target, further highlighting its vulnerability to changes in purchasing power and consumer confidence.
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Organized Retail Crime and Operational Costs: Target has been significantly impacted by rising organized retail crime, also referred to as "shrinkage," which cost the company an estimated $500 million in 2025. This trend has forced Target to implement measures such as locking up high-theft items and limiting self-checkout options, which, while aimed at reducing loss, carry the inherent risk of negatively affecting the guest experience. Beyond direct theft, operational risks, including store safety and potential legal exposures—as evidenced by a recent $2.7 million premises liability lawsuit—can incur material financial and reputational consequences for the company.
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Intense Competition and Brand Perception: Target operates within a fiercely competitive retail landscape, facing pressure from a diverse array of omnichannel retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and online marketplaces. Its sustained success hinges on its capacity to effectively differentiate itself through its product offerings, pricing strategies, and overall guest experience. Failure to distinguish itself adequately could result in a loss of market share and adverse financial outcomes. Adding to this challenge, negative publicity and consumer backlash, particularly following its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives in 2025, have led to consumer boycotts and increased scrutiny, impacting brand perception and potentially sales. This directly affects its ability to attract and retain customers in a crowded market where competitors like Walmart and Amazon excel in price and speed, respectively.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The rise of ultra-low-cost, direct-to-consumer e-commerce platforms such as Shein and Temu presents an emerging threat. These platforms leverage direct sourcing and aggressive pricing, particularly impacting Target's apparel, home décor, and general merchandise categories by offering a compelling alternative for value-conscious consumers. Concurrently, the rapid growth and increasing influence of social commerce platforms like TikTok Shop represent a new frontier in consumer purchasing behavior. This emerging channel enables direct in-app purchases and leverages social media trends, potentially diverting consumer attention and spending from traditional retail channels and websites like Target.com.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Target Corporation (TGT) operates in various retail segments within the United States. The addressable market sizes for its main products and services in the U.S. are as follows:
- General Merchandise Retail: The General Merchandise Stores sector in the United States was approximately $899.3 billion in 2025.
- Food Assortments (Grocery & Food): The USA Grocery & Food Market is valued at approximately $3 trillion.
- Apparel & Accessories: The United States apparel market is valued at $365.70 billion in 2025.
- Home Décor Products: The U.S. home decor market generated a revenue of approximately $237.87 billion in 2024.
- Electronics: The U.S. consumer electronics retail market recorded revenues of $380.9 billion in 2024.
- Household Appliances: The U.S. household appliances market size was estimated at $99.34 billion in 2024.
- Toys: The U.S. toys market size reached $42.8 billion in 2024.
- Beauty and Personal Care Products: The U.S. beauty and personal care products market size was estimated at $109.56 billion in 2025.
- Household Essentials: The USA Household Products Market is valued at $67.5 billion.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Target Corporation (TGT) is focusing on several strategic initiatives to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years and beyond.
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Strategic Store Investments and Expansion: Target plans to significantly invest in its physical store presence by opening new locations and remodeling existing ones. The company aims to open approximately 20 new stores in 2025 and over 30 in 2026, with a long-term goal of adding more than 300 stores over ten years. These new and remodeled stores are designed to enhance the in-store shopping experience, incorporate flexible layouts for efficient fulfillment operations, and serve as hubs for digital growth.
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Enhanced Digital and Omnichannel Experience: A key driver is the continuous investment in Target's digital channels and the integration of its physical and digital commerce. This includes improving the digital experience through enhanced search, social, and AI-driven personalization for better product recommendations. The company also aims to accelerate the growth of its same-day services, such as Drive Up and Same-Day Delivery, and expand its next-day delivery capabilities to more metro areas.
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Differentiated Product Assortment and Brand Partnerships: Target is focused on offering a compelling and relevant product assortment, emphasizing newness, quality, and value. This strategy involves launching new series and collaborations, expanding partnerships with brands like Champion and Disney, and introducing over 45 new beauty brands and 2,000 new items. Additionally, the retailer is reimagining key categories such as gaming, sports, and toys to strengthen its market position.
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Growth of Target Plus Marketplace and Roundel: Expanding third-party digital sales through the Target Plus marketplace is a significant growth initiative. Target projects to grow these sales from approximately $1 billion in 2024 to more than $5 billion by 2030 by adding hundreds of new brands. Concurrently, the company plans to double the size of its in-house media company, Roundel, by 2030, which generated over $2 billion in value in 2025.
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Supply Chain Optimization and Loyalty Program Evolution: Investments in supply chain and fulfillment capabilities are geared towards increasing ease, reliability, and speed of product delivery. This includes modernizing inventory management with AI-powered technology and implementing new package delivery solutions. Alongside this, Target is evolving its Target Circle loyalty program and aims to triple the Target Circle 360 membership base over the next three years by introducing new perks and partnerships to deepen guest engagement.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Target had an existing share repurchase program authorized in August 2021. As of January 31, 2026, the company completed the repurchase of 34,804,581 shares for $6,842.56 million under this program.
- As of November 1, 2025, approximately $8.3 billion of remaining capacity was under the August 2021 repurchase program, which has a total authorization of $15 billion.
- In fiscal year 2025, Target repurchased $251 million in Q1 and $152 million in Q3.
Share Issuance
- Target's shares outstanding have generally declined over the last few years, indicating net repurchases rather than significant issuances for capital raising.
- For instance, Target's shares outstanding saw a 0.22% decline in 2025 from 2024, a 0.41% decline in 2024 from 2023, and a 5.68% decline in 2023 from 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- Target's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending January 2022 to 2026 averaged $4.099 billion, with a peak of $5.528 billion in fiscal year 2023, decreasing to $2.891 billion in fiscal year 2025.
- For fiscal year 2026, Target anticipates total capital spending of approximately $5 billion.
- These expenditures are primarily focused on opening more than 30 new stores and remodeling over 130 existing stores, enhancing supply chain and technology (including AI), and investing over $1 billion in its food and beverage business.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Target Earnings Notes | 12/28/2026 | |
| Ten-Year Tally: TGT Returns $38 Bil to Shareholders | 10/21/2025 | |
| Can Target Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Should You Buy Target Stock? | 09/18/2025 | |
| How Does Target Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than TGT Stock: Pay Less Than Target To Get More From UNH, OXY | 08/12/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than TGT Stock: Pay Less Than Target To Get More From PPC, SJM | 08/12/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 03/09/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: WDAY, BBY, TGT | Losers: SNDK, MU, NEM | 03/03/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: TGT, FCX, DECK | Losers: MRNA, TPL, PLTR | 12/26/2025 | |
| The Real Story Inside Target’s Q3 Earnings | 11/19/2025 | |
| How Will Target Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | 11/18/2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to TGT.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | BRBR | BellRing Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -1.7% |
| 02062026 | AVO | Mission Produce | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.1% | 1.1% | -2.7% |
| 01022026 | CALM | Cal-Maine Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.0% | 12.0% | -7.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 164.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 380.5 |
| Rev LTM | 226,227 |
| Op Inc LTM | 16,238 |
| FCF LTM | 8,397 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 10,821 |
| CFO LTM | 16,330 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,030 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 380.5 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 26.2 |
| P/E | 36.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 80.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 18.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & beverage | 23,828 | 23,899 | 22,918 | 20,306 | 18,135 |
| Household essentials | 18,614 | 18,746 | |||
| Home furnishings & décor | 16,699 | 17,760 | 19,463 | 20,255 | 18,231 |
| Apparel & accessories | 16,505 | 16,485 | 17,646 | 17,931 | 14,772 |
| Hardlines | 15,784 | 16,162 | 17,739 | 18,614 | 16,626 |
| Beauty | 13,173 | 12,538 | |||
| Advertising revenue | 649 | 522 | |||
| Credit card profit sharing | 576 | 667 | 734 | 710 | 666 |
| Other | 521 | 420 | 1,045 | 921 | 670 |
| Other merchandise sales | 217 | 213 | |||
| Beauty & household essentials | 29,575 | 27,268 | 24,461 | ||
| Total | 106,566 | 107,412 | 109,120 | 106,005 | 93,561 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $115.92 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 52.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/06/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $112.90 | $98.50 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 2.7% | 17.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 31.5% | 34.7% |
| Downside Capture | -16.43 | 96.02 |
| Upside Capture | 119.35 | 93.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 24.3% | 52.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.57 | 0.92 | 0.66 | 0.91 | 0.98 | 0.84 |
| Up Beta | 1.41 | 0.25 | 0.07 | 0.52 | 0.92 | 0.84 |
| Down Beta | 2.40 | 1.55 | 1.45 | 1.69 | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Up Capture | 249% | 156% | 125% | 87% | 88% | 38% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 40 | 71 | 134 | 369 |
| Down Capture | 27% | 8% | -35% | 48% | 108% | 100% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 15 | 20 | 52 | 116 | 381 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TGT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | 16.6% | 34.9% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.1% | 14.0% | 0.12 | 41.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.9% | 18.9% | 0.69 | 52.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 46.2% | 27.1% | 1.39 | -10.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.3% | 17.5% | 0.86 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 16.5% | -0.03 | 51.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.2% | 44.1% | -0.25 | 28.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TGT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | -5.4% | 35.2% | -0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.9% | 13.2% | 0.31 | 46.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.9% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 46.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.0% | 17.5% | 0.93 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 10.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 42.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.9% | 56.7% | 0.29 | 17.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TGT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | 6.8% | 33.2% | 0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.3% | 14.7% | 0.37 | 44.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.3% | 17.9% | 0.68 | 44.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.2% | 15.8% | 0.69 | 0.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 13.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 36.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.3% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 11.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/11/2026 | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| 11/19/2025 | -2.8% | -2.2% | 10.7% |
| 8/20/2025 | -6.3% | -8.8% | -15.1% |
| 5/21/2025 | -5.2% | -2.2% | -2.6% |
| 3/4/2025 | -3.0% | -5.7% | -13.5% |
| 11/20/2024 | -21.4% | -18.3% | -15.8% |
| 8/21/2024 | 11.2% | 10.8% | 9.3% |
| 5/22/2024 | -8.0% | -5.2% | -6.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 14 | 17 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 6.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Median Negative | -5.0% | -5.2% | -12.2% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 18.1% | 27.4% |
| Max Negative | -24.9% | -30.3% | -33.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/22/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/23/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/3/2026 | Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/19/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 EPS | 1.3 | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 2.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 4.8% | 4.3% | 0.2% | Higher New | Actual: 4.6% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 EPS | 7.5 | 8 | 8.5 | ||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liegel, Matthew A | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122025 | 100.90 | 2,044 | 206,245 | 1,116,386 | Form |
| 2 | Cornell, Brian C | Executive Officer | Trust | Sell | 5302025 | 96.18 | 45,000 | 4,327,974 | 23,703,159 | Form |
| 3 | Cornell, Brian C | Executive Officer | Trust | Sell | 3122025 | 113.37 | 45,000 | 5,101,488 | 29,344,099 | Form |
| 4 | Liegel, Matthew A | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102025 | 113.52 | 287 | 32,580 | 814,279 | Form |
| 5 | Cornell, Brian C | Executive Officer | Trust | Sell | 3112026 | 121.76 | 50,000 | 6,088,025 | 23,920,216 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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