Target (TGT)
Market Price (11/5/2025): $90.01 | Market Cap: $40.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Target (TGT)
Market Price (11/5/2025): $90.01
Market Cap: $40.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 7.2% | Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% | Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% |
| Valuation becoming less expensive P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 40% |
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 7.2% |
| Valuation becoming less expensive P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 40% |
| Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% |
| Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
TGT Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TGT Return | 40% | 33% | -34% | -1% | -2% | -31% | -16% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 13% | -12% | 37% | 40% | 12% | 175% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TGT Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 57% | 43% | 72% | 68% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TGT Max Drawdown | -29% | -3% | -39% | -28% | -12% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -12% | -32% | -5% | -4% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, COST, TJX, ROST. See TGT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TGT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 243 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 176.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1508 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, TJX, ROST
In The Past
Target's stock fell -60.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -60.6% loss requires a 153.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TGT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -3.0% |
| 10032025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -5.7% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -3.6% |
| 09262025 | GIS | General Mills | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.1% | -6.1% | -6.1% |
| 09122025 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -26.9% | -26.9% | -29.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -3.0% |
| 10032025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -5.7% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -3.6% |
| 09262025 | GIS | General Mills | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.1% | -6.1% | -6.1% |
| 09122025 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -26.9% | -26.9% | -29.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Target
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 152.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 288.0 |
| Rev LTM | 190,438 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,430 |
| FCF LTM | 5,939 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,714 |
| CFO LTM | 9,860 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,692 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 288.0 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 24.9 |
| P/E | 34.7 |
| P/CFO | 21.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 104.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 24.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & beverage | 23,899 | 22,918 | 20,306 | 18,135 | 15,039 |
| Household essentials | 18,746 | 18,483 | |||
| Home furnishings & décor | 17,760 | 19,463 | 20,255 | 18,231 | 14,430 |
| Apparel & accessories | 16,485 | 17,646 | 17,931 | 14,772 | 14,304 |
| Hardlines | 16,162 | 17,739 | 18,614 | 16,626 | 12,595 |
| Beauty | 12,538 | 11,092 | |||
| Credit card profit sharing | 667 | 734 | 710 | 666 | 680 |
| Advertising revenue | 522 | 404 | |||
| Other | 420 | 394 | 921 | 670 | 448 |
| Other merchandise sales | 213 | 247 | |||
| Beauty & household essentials | 27,268 | 24,461 | 20,616 | ||
| Total | 107,412 | 109,120 | 106,005 | 93,561 | 78,112 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8292025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5302025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3122025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11272024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8302024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3132024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11222023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8252023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5262023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3082023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11232022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8262022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3092022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 11242021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | LIEGEL MATTHEW A | Chief Accounting Officer | 6122025 | Sell | 100.90 | 2,044 | 206,245 | 1,116,386 | Form |
| 1 | Cornell Brian C | Executive Officer | 5302025 | Sell | 96.18 | 45,000 | 4,327,974 | 23,703,159 | Form |
| 2 | Cornell Brian C | Executive Officer | 3122025 | Sell | 113.37 | 45,000 | 5,101,488 | 29,344,099 | Form |
| 3 | LIEGEL MATTHEW A | Chief Accounting Officer | 3102025 | Sell | 113.52 | 287 | 32,580 | 814,279 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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