PayPal (PYPL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $61.75 | Market Cap: $58.7 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
PayPal (PYPL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $61.11
Market Cap: $58.1 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PYPL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining why PayPal's (PYPL) stock moved by approximately -12.5% around late August to early December, referencing a similar decline observed in August 2023 following the company's Q2 earnings report:
1. Lower-than-expected operating margins and competitive pressure. PayPal's non-GAAP operating margin for the second quarter of 2023 was slightly below management's previous guidance, largely due to increased loss provisions in its credit portfolio and less revenue realized than anticipated. This performance highlighted analyst concerns about competitive pressures, especially regarding the growth of high-margin branded checkout payments.
2. Decreasing active customer accounts. For the second consecutive quarter in Q2 2023, PayPal reported a reduction in active customer accounts, with a decrease of 2 million. This decline in user numbers was attributed by the company to the "churn of minimally engaged accounts" and a strategic focus on encouraging higher activity levels among existing active users.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PYPL Return | 117% | -19% | -62% | -14% | 39% | -26% | -42% |
| Peers Return | 72% | 32% | -41% | 70% | 28% | 26% | 266% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PYPL Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 25% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 65% | 28% | 68% | 58% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PYPL Max Drawdown | -21% | -23% | -64% | -29% | -9% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -8% | -48% | -2% | -11% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, SHOP, INTU, MA. See PYPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PYPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 512.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 120 days |
Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, SHOP, INTU, MA
In The Past
PayPal's stock fell -83.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/23/2021. A -83.7% loss requires a 512.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Could You Be Missing PayPal Stock's Upside? | Actionable | ||
| Could Cash Machine PayPal Stock Be Your Next Buy | Actionable | ||
| PayPal Stock In Shambles: Down -14% With 7-Day Losing Streak | Notification | ||
| PayPal Stock In Shambles: Down -10% With 5-Day Losing Streak | Notification | ||
| Is PayPal Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| FI Beats PayPal Stock on Price & Growth | Actionable | ||
| PYPL Capital Return Hits $30 Bil in 10 Years | |||
| Time To Buy PayPal Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for PayPal Stock with 14% Return (vs. -11% YTD) [10/8/2025] | Notification | ||
| PayPal vs Apollo Asset Management: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Has PayPal Stock Quietly Become a Value Opportunity? | December 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Strong Cash Yield: Is PayPal Stock A Buy? | November 25th, 2025 | ||
| Is PayPal Stock Poised for a Rally? | November 21st, 2025 | ||
| 7-Day Sell-Off Sends PayPal Stock Down -14% | November 21st, 2025 | ||
| Fiserv vs PayPal: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | November 19th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PYPL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 06302024 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 49.7% | 28.1% | -1.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 06302024 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 49.7% | 28.1% | -1.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PayPal
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Kereere Suzan | President, Global Markets | 11202025 | Sell | 59.80 | 3,962 | 236,943 | 1,864,865 | Form |
| 1 | Webster Aaron | EVP, Global Chief Risk Officer | 11122025 | Sell | 66.29 | 7,198 | 477,155 | 2,504,635 | Form |
| 2 | Kereere Suzan | President, Global Markets | 11042025 | Sell | 68.85 | 10,000 | 688,535 | 2,305,422 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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