Tearsheet

PayPal (PYPL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $61.75 | Market Cap: $58.7 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

PayPal (PYPL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $61.11
Market Cap: $58.1 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PYPL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining why PayPal's (PYPL) stock moved by approximately -12.5% around late August to early December, referencing a similar decline observed in August 2023 following the company's Q2 earnings report: 1. Lower-than-expected operating margins and competitive pressure. PayPal's non-GAAP operating margin for the second quarter of 2023 was slightly below management's previous guidance, largely due to increased loss provisions in its credit portfolio and less revenue realized than anticipated. This performance highlighted analyst concerns about competitive pressures, especially regarding the growth of high-margin branded checkout payments.

2. Decreasing active customer accounts. For the second consecutive quarter in Q2 2023, PayPal reported a reduction in active customer accounts, with a decrease of 2 million. This decline in user numbers was attributed by the company to the "churn of minimally engaged accounts" and a strategic focus on encouraging higher activity levels among existing active users.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PYPL Return117%-19%-62%-14%39%-26%-42%
Peers Return72%32%-41%70%28%26%266%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PYPL Win Rate67%50%25%58%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate63%65%28%68%58%64% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PYPL Max Drawdown-21%-23%-64%-29%-9%-33% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-8%-48%-2%-11%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, SHOP, INTU, MA. See PYPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPYPLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-83.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven512.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-20.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven114 days120 days

Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, SHOP, INTU, MA


In The Past

PayPal's stock fell -83.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/23/2021. A -83.7% loss requires a 512.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About PayPal (PYPL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PYPL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
PYPL_6302024_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302024PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
49.7%28.1%-1.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
PYPL_6302024_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302024PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
49.7%28.1%-1.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for PayPal

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PYPLGOOGLAMZNSHOPINTUMAMedian
NamePayPal Alphabet Amazon.c.Shopify Intuit Masterca. 
Mkt Price-------
Mkt Cap-------
Rev LTM-------
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-------
FCF 3Y Avg-------
CFO LTM-------
CFO 3Y Avg-------

Growth & Margins

PYPLGOOGLAMZNSHOPINTUMAMedian
NamePayPal Alphabet Amazon.c.Shopify Intuit Masterca. 
Rev Chg LTM-------
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-------
Rev Chg Q-------
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-------
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-------
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-------
FCF/Rev LTM-------
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-------

Valuation

PYPLGOOGLAMZNSHOPINTUMAMedian
NamePayPal Alphabet Amazon.c.Shopify Intuit Masterca. 
Mkt Cap-------
P/S-------
P/EBIT-------
P/E-------
P/CFO-------
Total Yield-------
Dividend Yield-------
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-------
D/E-------
Net D/E-------

Returns

PYPLGOOGLAMZNSHOPINTUMAMedian
NamePayPal Alphabet Amazon.c.Shopify Intuit Masterca. 
1M Rtn-------
3M Rtn-------
6M Rtn-------
12M Rtn-------
3Y Rtn-------
1M Excs Rtn-------
3M Excs Rtn-------
6M Excs Rtn-------
12M Excs Rtn-------
3Y Excs Rtn-------

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment29,771    
Revenues from other value added services 2,3121,9691,5361,673
Transaction revenues 25,20623,40219,91816,099
Total29,77127,51825,37121,45417,772


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity43,151,018
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.8%
Average Daily Volume13,871,743
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.11
Basic Shares Quantity950,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024204202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022210202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021203202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Kereere SuzanPresident, Global Markets11202025Sell59.803,962236,9431,864,865Form
1Webster AaronEVP, Global Chief Risk Officer11122025Sell66.297,198477,1552,504,635Form
2Kereere SuzanPresident, Global Markets11042025Sell68.8510,000688,5352,305,422Form