Vaxcyte (PCVX)
Market Price (12/14/2025): $44.69 | Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Vaxcyte (PCVX)
Market Price (12/14/2025): $44.69Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -33% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Vaccine Development, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -812 Mil | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Vaccine Development, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -812 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PCVX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Vaxcyte (PCVX) stock moved by 44.5% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 14, 2025:
1. Positive Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results and VAX-31 Regulatory Progress: Vaxcyte announced significant progress for its VAX-31 pneumococcal conjugate vaccine program in its Q2 2025 earnings report. The FDA cleared the path for VAX-31 Phase 3 adult trials to begin in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the Breakthrough Therapy designation for VAX-31 was expanded to include pneumonia prevention. The company also reported a strong cash position of $2.8 billion as of June 30, 2025, extending its cash runway to mid-2028.
2. Strategic Manufacturing Expansion: On September 30, 2025, Vaxcyte disclosed plans to establish fill-finish manufacturing capabilities in North Carolina. This initiative is a crucial part of its long-term U.S. commercial supply strategy and represents a significant investment of up to $1 billion in manufacturing and services.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PCVX Return | � | -10% | 102% | 31% | 30% | -46% | � |
| Peers Return | 621% | 91% | -21% | -21% | -2% | -11% | 647% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PCVX Win Rate | 33% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 58% | 45% | 37% | 35% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PCVX Max Drawdown | � | -38% | -27% | -28% | -5% | -66% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -4% | -45% | -36% | -27% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PFE, MRK, MRNA, NVAX, DVAX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PCVX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 532 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -52.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1070 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Vaxcyte's stock fell -43.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/6/2021. A -43.6% loss requires a 77.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PCVX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.1% | -5.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.0% | 16.0% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.1% | -5.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.0% | 16.0% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vaxcyte
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,613 |
| Op Inc LTM | 213 |
| FCF LTM | -152 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -167 |
| CFO LTM | -144 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -147 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -13.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.8 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 0.3 |
| P/E | 0.4 |
| P/CFO | 3.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 17.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -22.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -25.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -33.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -96.1% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -2.5% | 10.4% | 12.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | -9.1% | -4.4% | 0.1% |
| 5/7/2025 | 8.4% | 1.4% | 27.6% |
| 2/25/2025 | -0.9% | -11.5% | -13.6% |
| 11/5/2024 | -3.2% | -7.6% | -16.3% |
| 8/6/2024 | -4.6% | 4.5% | 51.6% |
| 5/8/2024 | -1.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% |
| 2/27/2024 | -7.3% | -11.8% | -15.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 3.0% | 6.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -5.3% | -12.6% |
| Max Positive | 14.6% | 25.2% | 51.6% |
| Max Negative | -17.9% | -11.8% | -16.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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