New York Times (NYT)
Market Price (3/28/2026): $82.8 | Market Cap: $13.5 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Publishing
New York Times (NYT)
Market Price (3/28/2026): $82.8Market Cap: $13.5 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Publishing
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% | Key risksNYT key risks include [1] navigating subscriber churn and defending its copyright against AI companies through litigation, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Gaming Content & Platforms, Video Streaming, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Gaming Content & Platforms, Video Streaming, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% |
| Key risksNYT key risks include [1] navigating subscriber churn and defending its copyright against AI companies through litigation, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Exceeded Q4 2025 Earnings Expectations: The New York Times Company reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, surpassing analyst consensus for both its top and bottom lines. Revenues increased by 10.4% year-over-year to $802.3 million, outperforming analyst estimates of approximately $790 million. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.89, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.88.
2. Significant Digital Subscriber Growth and Record Digital Revenue: The company demonstrated strong momentum in its digital transformation strategy by adding approximately 450,000 net digital-only subscribers in Q4 2025, contributing to a total of 1.4 million net new digital subscribers for the full year 2025 and bringing the total to 12.8 million. This growth propelled digital revenue to surpass $2 billion for the first time in 2025. Digital-only subscription revenues increased 13.9% year-over-year to $381.5 million in Q4 2025, while digital advertising revenue surged 24.9% year-over-year to $147.2 million in the same quarter.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.7% change in NYT stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 64.33 | 82.79 | 28.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,749 | 2,825 | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 12.2% | -0.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.0 | 39.1 | 26.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 163 | 162 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NYT | 28.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 20.4% |
| Sector (XLC) | -6.9% | 36.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 39.2% change in NYT stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 59.49 | 82.79 | 39.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,689 | 2,825 | 5.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.9% | 12.2% | 2.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.3 | 39.1 | 28.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 163 | 162 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 39.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NYT | 39.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 10.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | -3.3% | 26.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 74.4% change in NYT stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 47.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.48 | 82.79 | 74.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,586 | 2,825 | 9.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.4% | 12.2% | 7.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.5 | 39.1 | 47.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 164 | 162 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 74.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NYT | 74.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 30.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | 6.2% | 34.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 122.4% change in NYT stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 61.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.23 | 82.79 | 122.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,308 | 2,825 | 22.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.5% | 12.2% | 61.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.5 | 39.1 | 10.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 166 | 162 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 122.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NYT | 122.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 33.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | 106.7% | 33.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NYT Return | -6% | -32% | 53% | 7% | 35% | 20% | 69% |
| Peers Return | 51% | -29% | 6% | 34% | 27% | 4% | 101% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NYT Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 75% | 50% | 58% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 38% | 55% | 48% | 55% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NYT Max Drawdown | -22% | -42% | 0% | -15% | -12% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -39% | -15% | -11% | -28% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NWSA, FOXA, WBD, TRI, LEE. See NYT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NYT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 855 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 656.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3,409 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NWSA, FOXA, WBD, TRI, LEE
In The Past
New York Times's stock fell -50.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/26/2021. A -50.3% loss requires a 101.3% gain to breakeven.
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About New York Times (NYT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for The New York Times Company (NYT):
- The Netflix of premium journalism.
- Like Apple for information and lifestyle content.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Newspaper Publication: Publishes The New York Times, available as daily and Sunday newspapers in print (US and international editions) and digitally.
- Digital News Platform: Operates NYTimes.com, providing online access to news and information.
- Content Syndication & Licensing: Licenses articles, graphics, photographs, and electronic databases to other publications and resellers.
- Advertising Services: Sells direct-sold website, mobile application, podcast, email, and video advertisements, as well as digital advertising services.
- Live Events: Hosts physical and virtual live events to connect audiences with journalists and thought leaders.
- Wirecutter: Operates a product review and recommendation website.
- Mobile Applications: Develops and offers mobile applications, including games and cooking products.
- Third-Party Printing & Distribution: Provides printing and distribution services for other companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The New York Times Company (NYT) primarily sells its products and services to individuals.
Here are up to three categories of customers that it serves:
- News Subscribers: Individuals who subscribe to The New York Times for its news and information content. This includes both print subscribers who receive the daily and Sunday newspaper, and digital subscribers who access content via NYTimes.com and its news-focused mobile applications.
- Digital Product Users: Individuals who subscribe to or utilize the company's supplementary digital products and mobile applications, such as its games and cooking products. This category also includes users who engage with services like Wirecutter for product reviews and recommendations.
- Live Event Attendees: Individuals who purchase tickets or participate in the company's physical and virtual live events, which are designed to connect audiences with journalists and outside thought leaders.
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- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
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Meredith Kopit Levien, President and Chief Executive Officer
Meredith Kopit Levien became CEO of The New York Times Company in September 2020. She joined The Times Company in 2013 as head of advertising, later becoming chief revenue officer and chief operating officer. Prior to joining The New York Times, she worked at The Advisory Board Company, a consulting firm, and then for the digital agency i33/AppNet. She was recruited to Atlantic Media as an advertising director in 2003 and became the first publisher of its magazine 02138 in 2006. In 2008, she joined Forbes Media, where she ran Forbes Life magazine, focusing on its digital side and later being appointed group publisher in 2010 and chief revenue officer in 2012.
William T. Bardeen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
William T. Bardeen was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The New York Times Company, effective July 1, 2023. He joined the company in 2004 and has held various leadership roles, including chief strategy officer since 2018, overseeing strategy, business development, mergers and acquisitions, investing, and financial planning and analysis. Earlier in his career, he was a management consultant working with early-stage media and communications companies. He started his career at A.T. Kearney in 1996.
Jacqueline M. Welch, Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer
Jacqueline M. Welch is the Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer for The New York Times Company, leading the human resources department and overseeing talent acquisition, development, compensation, and diversity, equity, and inclusion. Before joining The Times in 2021, she was Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer, and Chief Diversity Officer at Freddie Mac from 2016 to 2021. Her previous experience includes roles at Turner Broadcasting System, WestRock, Accenture, Rock-Tenn, and Willis Towers Watson.
David Perpich, Vice Chairman
David Perpich has served as Vice Chairman of The New York Times Company and publisher of The Athletic. He joined the company in 2010, initially as executive director of paid products, where he played a key role in launching The Times's digital subscription plan in 2011. He later served as general manager of new digital products, leading the creation of subscription products like Cooking and Games, and was president and general manager of Wirecutter, which The Times Company acquired in 2016. Prior to The Times, he founded and ran two companies in the music industry and worked in product management and business development at About.com (a former New York Times Company property), and was a member of the consumer, media, and digital industries practice at Booz & Company.
Hannah Yang, Chief Growth and Customer Officer
Hannah Yang is the Chief Growth and Customer Officer at The New York Times Company, responsible for leading its global subscription business. She co-leads a cross-functional organization focused on driving subscription growth across the company's product portfolio. Before joining The Times, she worked as an attorney at Simpson Thacher & Bartlett and as a management consultant at Katzenbach Partners LLC (now part of Strategy&).
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The New York Times Company (NYT) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from the evolving media landscape and economic pressures.Key Risks
- Slowing Subscriber Growth and Increased Churn: The New York Times Company's core business model relies heavily on digital subscriptions. However, the company is experiencing a deceleration in subscriber growth and average revenue per user (ARPU) growth. This trend is exacerbated by a highly competitive environment where numerous free news alternatives are readily available, potentially leading to increased subscriber churn, especially after major news cycles such as elections.
- Threat from Generative AI Technology and Intellectual Property Misuse: An emerging and significant risk is the unauthorized use of The New York Times' extensive content by generative artificial intelligence technologies. This poses a threat to the company's intellectual property, potentially impacting its website traffic, brand reputation, and crucial revenue streams derived from its journalism. The company is actively engaged in litigation to protect its intellectual property in this evolving area.
- Rising Operating Costs and Inflationary Pressures: The company faces ongoing challenges from rising operating costs, including increased newsroom expenses and broader inflationary pressures. While The New York Times has demonstrated efforts in cost management and some operating margin expansion, sustained cost inflation could put pressure on profitability if not effectively mitigated through revenue growth or further efficiencies.
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Emerging Threat: Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) for News Consumption and Creation
Generative AI models, such as large language models, are rapidly advancing in their ability to summarize complex articles, extract key information, and answer factual queries based on real-time data. These AI capabilities, when integrated into search engines, digital assistants, or standalone AI platforms, can provide users with concise news summaries and direct answers to information requests. This development poses a clear emerging threat by potentially disintermediating traditional news publishers like The New York Times. If users can obtain the essence of news stories or answers to questions directly from AI, they may bypass NYT's website or apps, leading to reduced direct traffic, lower advertising revenue, and a diminished incentive to subscribe for full article access. This challenges the value proposition of human-sourced, in-depth journalism by potentially commoditizing information delivery and undermining the subscription-based business model that relies on direct engagement with original content.
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The New York Times Company (symbol: NYT) operates in several addressable markets for its main products and services.Digital News and Information Subscriptions
The global digital newspaper and magazines market was valued at USD 38.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 65.49 billion by 2030. In the United States, the paid online news market was estimated at US$5.9 billion to US$6.9 billion in 2024.Digital Advertising
The global digital advertising market was estimated at USD 488.40 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 567.85 billion in 2025. This market is projected to reach USD 1,164.25 billion by 2030. North America dominated the digital advertising market with a share of over 31% in 2024. The U.S. digital advertising market alone was valued at USD 315.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to increase to USD 974.5 billion by 2032.Mobile Applications (Games)
The global mobile gaming market was estimated at USD 139.38 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 256.19 billion by 2030. In the United States, the mobile gaming market is projected to grow from USD 22.49 billion in 2024 to USD 54.88 billion by 2035.Content and Copyright Licensing
The global content licensing and distribution market was valued at USD 200 billion in 2025 and is projected to expand to USD 430 billion by 2033. The global copyright licensing market was valued at US$1.15 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach US$1.88 billion by 2034. The North American copyright licensing market is anticipated to reach US$459.1 million by 2034.Other Products and Services
For products and services such as Wirecutter (product review and recommendation products), the live events business, and printing and distributing products for third parties, specific addressable market sizes are null.AI Analysis | Feedback
The New York Times Company (NYT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:- Continued Digital Subscription Growth and Bundling Strategies: The company's primary focus remains on expanding its digital subscriber base, with a stated long-term goal of reaching 15 million subscribers. A significant driver for this is the expansion of its digital subscription bundles, which integrate offerings like news, Games, Cooking, Wirecutter, and The Athletic. This strategy aims to attract new subscribers and convert existing casual readers into more committed, paying customers by providing diversified content value.
- Subscription Price Increases and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) Expansion: The New York Times Company is implementing targeted price increases for tenured subscribers and those transitioning from introductory promotional rates to higher standard pricing, particularly for non-bundle news and games subscriptions. This approach is anticipated to enhance digital ARPU, contributing to overall subscription revenue growth.
- Growth in Digital Advertising Revenue: Robust growth in digital advertising is expected to continue, fueled by strong marketer demand, the introduction of new advertising inventory, and the success of branded content and multimedia formats. The company's expanding digital ecosystem, including its games and sports offerings, provides more opportunities for advertising supply and engagement.
- Expansion into Video Journalism and Products: Strategic investments in video journalism and digital product experiences are a significant anticipated growth driver. The company views video expansion as a crucial opportunity to attract new audiences and generate revenue, with plans to scale its video offerings and establish itself as a prominent brand for news consumption across various video formats.
- Leveraging a Diversified Multi-Product Portfolio: Beyond its core news product, The New York Times Company is strengthening and leveraging its portfolio of distinct digital products, including The Athletic, Cooking, Games, and Wirecutter. Engaging audiences across these multiple products and revenue streams is a key element of its strategy to monetize a broader base of users and ensure sustained revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- The Board of Directors approved a new $350.0 million Class A share repurchase program in February 2025, in addition to the amount remaining under the 2023 authorization.
- The company repurchased approximately $165.3 million in shares during fiscal year 2025.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, The New York Times Company repurchased Class A Common Stock for approximately $55.4 million.
Share Issuance
- The number of shares outstanding for New York Times decreased by 0.52% from 2024 to 0.165 billion in 2025.
- In 2024, shares outstanding saw a slight increase of 0.08% from 2023, reaching 0.166 billion.
- The shares outstanding declined by 0.88% from 2022 to 0.166 billion in 2023.
Inbound Investments
- ValueAct Capital took a stake in The New York Times Company in August 2022, with the aim of promoting bundled subscriptions.
- Berkshire Hathaway disclosed an addition of approximately 5.07 million shares of New York Times stock to its portfolio in February 2026, valued at around $351 million as of the end of 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2022, The New York Times Company acquired The Athletic, a subscription-based sports news website, for $550 million.
- The company acquired Wordle, an internet word puzzle game, in January 2022 for a price reported "in the low seven figures".
- In March 2020, the New York Times Company acquired Audm, a subscription-based audio app.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled approximately $29 million in 2024 and $23 million in 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are approximately $40 million, to be funded from cash on hand.
- The primary focus for capital expenditures in 2025 includes the College Point, N.Y., printing and distribution facility, improvements to the Company Headquarters, and investments in technology supporting strategic initiatives.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to NYT.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02132026 | YELP | Yelp | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.7% |
| 02132026 | TRIP | Tripadvisor | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 02062026 | OMC | Omnicom | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.1% | 22.1% | -3.7% |
| 02062026 | MGNI | Magnite | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 20.6% | 20.6% | -0.8% |
| 01302026 | RBLX | Roblox | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -7.9% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 43.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 19.6 |
| Rev LTM | 8,050 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,156 |
| FCF LTM | 1,302 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,150 |
| CFO LTM | 1,834 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,539 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 19.6 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 15.8 |
| P/E | 20.0 |
| P/CFO | 14.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 68.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 8.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $82.79 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 13.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/03/1973 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $76.21 | $63.72 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.6% | 29.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 25.2% | 27.0% |
| Downside Capture | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Upside Capture | 110.76 | 70.98 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 23.2% | 31.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.42 | 0.37 | 0.28 | 0.09 | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| Up Beta | -1.29 | -0.60 | -0.13 | 0.46 | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| Down Beta | 0.32 | 0.80 | 0.24 | -0.07 | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| Up Capture | 177% | 108% | 113% | 46% | 57% | 39% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 27 | 40 | 74 | 146 | 416 |
| Down Capture | 10% | -20% | -30% | -41% | 26% | 75% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 5 | 14 | 21 | 49 | 104 | 331 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NYT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT | 70.3% | 26.9% | 1.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.1% | 18.3% | 0.33 | 35.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 31.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | -2.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 7.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 27.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.0% | 44.0% | -0.41 | 9.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NYT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT | 11.7% | 29.2% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.1% | 20.7% | 0.31 | 43.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 41.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 33.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.7% | 56.6% | 0.30 | 19.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NYT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT | 21.7% | 30.5% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.7% | 22.4% | 0.47 | 44.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 43.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 17.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 33.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 11.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/4/2026 | -6.3% | -2.1% | 13.5% |
| 11/5/2025 | -0.2% | 9.1% | 12.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | 15.5% | 8.2% | 10.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | -0.0% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| 2/5/2025 | -11.9% | -11.3% | -15.2% |
| 11/4/2024 | -7.7% | -1.0% | -5.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.2% | 4.0% | 10.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 8.2% | 12.1% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -6.9% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 15.5% | 18.7% | 23.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.9% | -14.6% | -15.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026 | Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Digital-only subscription revenues growth | 14.0% | 15.5% | 17.0% | 6.9% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 14.5% for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 Total subscription revenues growth | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 9.0% for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted operating costs growth | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 30.8% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 6.5% for Q4 2025 |
| 2026 Depreciation and amortization | 80.00 Mil | 82.50 Mil | 85.00 Mil | -2.9% | Lower New | Actual: 85.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Interest income and other, net | 40.00 Mil | 42.50 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 6.2% | Higher New | Actual: 40.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 35.00 Mil | 40.00 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 14.3% | Higher New | Actual: 35.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kopit, Levien Meredith A | PRESIDENT & CEO | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 59.68 | 16,972 | 1,012,940 | 6,348,182 | Form |
| 2 | Welch, Jacqueline M | EVP and CHRO | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 60.04 | 5,500 | 330,220 | 868,779 | Form |
| 3 | Bardeen, William | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8132025 | 58.04 | 5,000 | 290,200 | 652,544 | Form |
| 4 | Perpich, David S | Direct | Sell | 6052025 | 56.18 | 4,000 | 224,720 | 1,548,826 | Form | |
| 5 | Kopit, Levien Meredith A | PRESIDENT & CEO | Direct | Sell | 6042025 | 56.82 | 19,260 | 1,094,353 | 7,008,008 | Form |
NYT Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a probability-adjusted skew greater than 2.0x. The primary friction of decelerating subscriber growth is a natural maturation, not a thesis-breaking flaw. The underlying strengths—a widening competitive moat, strong pricing power, and a powerful secular 'flight to quality' trend—remain firmly intact and are likely to overcome the near-term concerns about slowing growth, justifying a high-conviction position.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowThe business model is characterized by a massive, recurring subscriber base, strong pricing power, high incremental margins, and significant free cash flow generation (~$551M in 2025). The focus is now on capital efficiency and optimizing value from its established user base, which aligns with the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis is the durable revenue and free cash flow growth driven by the successful bundling of digital products (News, Games, Cooking, The Athletic). This strategy creates a sticky, habit-forming ecosystem that increases user retention, justifies price increases for tenured subscribers, and drives higher Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), all of which benefit from a high-margin, capital-light digital model.
- Digital-only subscribers reached 12.78 million in Q4 2025, a net addition of 1.4 million year-over-year.
- Digital advertising revenue accelerated, growing 24.9% YoY in Q4 2025, providing a secondary high-margin growth driver.
- The business generated approximately $551 million in free cash flow in 2025, demonstrating a highly efficient conversion of revenue to cash.
- Management provided strong Q1 2026 guidance, forecasting digital-only subscription revenue growth of 14%-17%.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is that the pace of new subscriber additions is slowing sequentially (450k in Q4 vs 460k in Q3), indicating market maturation. This is coupled with escalating operating costs (up 9.7% in Q4, ahead of guidance) to fund new initiatives like video. The market has proven to be highly sensitive to this deceleration, as the stock fell 10% post-earnings despite beating estimates, fearing that slowing growth and rising costs will compress margins and break the operating leverage narrative.
- Digital-only subscriber net additions decelerated sequentially from 460,000 in Q3 2025 to 450,000 in Q4 2025.
- Adjusted operating costs rose 9.7% in Q4 2025, exceeding guidance of 6-7%, with a further 8-9% increase guided for Q1 2026.
- The stock declined significantly following the Q4 2025 earnings report, highlighting investor sensitivity to slowing growth and rising costs.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Digital-Only Subscriber Net Additions | >400,000 quarterly | This is the primary metric the market uses to gauge growth momentum. A drop below 400k would confirm the deceleration narrative and pressure the stock. |
| Adjusted Operating Cost Growth YoY | < Revenue Growth YoY | To maintain the margin expansion thesis, cost growth must remain below revenue growth. If this inverts, it signals a breakdown in operating leverage. |
| Digital Advertising Revenue Growth YoY | >15% | With subscriber growth naturally maturing, the accelerating digital ad business is a critical secondary driver. A slowdown here would heighten concerns about overall growth. |
The Bundle's Resilience vs. Macro Strain
BULL VIEW
The multi-product bundle (News, Games, Cooking) creates high switching costs and pricing power, driving durable, high-margin revenue growth regardless of the economic cycle.
CORE TENSION
Can NYT's premium bundle strategy maintain pricing power and subscriber growth against a financially stressed consumer, or will 'subscription fatigue' and trade-downs cause a growth stall?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest earnings showed a significant acceleration in digital subscriber net additions (460,000 in Q3) but the stock's sharp drop after Q4 results suggests the market is now pricing in future macro risk.
BEAR VIEW
A strained consumer, evidenced by low savings rates and rising delinquencies, will cut discretionary subscriptions, causing subscriber churn and pressuring ARPU growth.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Early May 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Net digital subscriber additions and any change in Digital-Only ARPU trend. This directly tests the core debate of bundle resilience versus macro pressure. |
Monthly (ongoing) | Monthly Consumer Credit Data Release Watch: Quarter-over-quarter acceleration in consumer credit delinquency rates from the Federal Reserve. This is a leading indicator of consumer financial stress. |
H1 2026 | AI Copyright Lawsuit Ruling Watch: Any court ruling on the core 'fair use' argument in the OpenAI/Microsoft lawsuit. This impacts the long-term monetization of content. |
Talks begin post-March 2026 | NewsGuild Contract Negotiations Watch: News of contentious contract talks or union strike threats, similar to pressures seen at competitors like Hearst. Focus on wage demands impacting cost guidance. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-06 | Q2 2025 Earnings Report Details: NYT reported its Q2 2025 earnings, which were received very positively by the market, causing the stock to surge over 15% the following day. | Surged +15.53% $53.30 -> $61.58 |
2025-10-22 | OpenAI Lawsuit Update Details: OpenAI announced that a legal order requiring indefinite retention of user data for the NYT lawsuit had ended, returning to standard 30-day data retention policies. | Modest 1.0% gain $56.31 -> $56.87 |
2025-11-05 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported strong acceleration in digital subscriber net additions and a beat on revenue and EPS. Despite the positive results, the stock changed little on the day. | Muted (-0.24%) $57.60 -> $57.46 |
2025-12-02 | UBS Global Media and Telecom Conference Details: CEO Meredith Kopit Levien participated in the UBS conference. The stock saw a minor pullback during this period, indicating no major surprises or thesis-changing updates were shared. | Slight -1.03% pullback $64.61 -> $63.94 |
2025-12-18 | Quarterly Dividend Declaration Details: The company declared a regular quarterly dividend, signaling continued confidence in its cash flow generation. The market reaction was muted. | Flat (0.23%) $70.44 -> $70.60 |
2026-02-04 | Q4 2025 Earnings & Guidance Details: NYT reported a beat on EPS and revenue for Q4 2025, but the stock crashed over 6%, suggesting guidance or commentary on 2026 outlook disappointed investors. | Plummeted -6.34% $72.21 -> $67.63 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Volatility is moderate, but the NEUTRAL sentiment, expensive valuation, and acute macro risk of a consumer trade-down warrant a cautious, watchlist-sized position until visibility on the 2026 outlook improves.
Diversification Alternatives
TRI
SECTORUnlike NYT's consumer focus, TRI serves professionals (legal, tax) with mission-critical data, making its subscription revenue far more resilient to economic downturns.
NWSA
INDUSTRYOffers a different risk profile. While lower quality than NYT, it provides exposure to the news industry at a potentially lower valuation with different assets (real estate sites, book publishing).
The New York Times Company is transforming from a traditional newspaper publisher into a diversified digital subscription and content bundle provider.
All news should be filtered through the lens of digital subscriber growth, ARPU expansion via bundling, and sustained profitability from digital operations.
News of accelerating net new digital subscribers, increased ARPU from the 'bundle' strategy (e.g., Games, Cooking, The Athletic conversions), successful expansion of video offerings, or stronger-than-expected digital advertising growth (high-teens to low-twenties guidance for Q1 2026).
Reports of decelerating digital subscriber growth below 450,000 net new subs per quarter, significant ARPU pressure from prolonged promotional pricing, faster-than-anticipated decline in print revenue, or negative impacts from AI content generation and aggregation.
Analyst questions from the Q4 call focused on capital allocation strategies, general discussions about the sustainability of cost increases due to investments in video, or minor fluctuations in print advertising, as these do not directly alter the core re-rating thesis of digital subscription growth and bundling.
Repricing Catalyst
Successful scaling of the 'bundle' strategy, converting single-product subscribers to higher-ARPU multi-product bundles and growing video offerings. This structural shift is driving consistent progress towards the target of 15 million total subscribers by year-end 2027, with associated significant revenue expansion.
Digital-Only Subscriptions
$1.5B TTM (47.55% of Total) · 24% MarginWhat It Is
Digital access to NYT.com content including news, Games, Cooking, and The Athletic via web and mobile applications.
Who Pays & How
Millions of individual subscribers pay recurring fees for high-quality, trusted journalism and bundled lifestyle products due to perceived value, unique content, and strong brand loyalty.
Competition
Print Subscriptions
$0.5B TTM (16.08% of Total) · 24% MarginWhat It Is
Delivery of physical New York Times newspapers to homes and newsstands.
Who Pays & How
Individual subscribers and institutional clients pay recurring fees for physical newspaper delivery due to habit, preference for print, and a desire for a tangible news product.
Competition
Digital Advertising
$0.6B TTM (18.35% of Total) · 24% MarginWhat It Is
Display, native, and programmatic advertising placements across NYT.com, mobile apps, and other digital platforms.
Who Pays & How
Various national and international businesses pay for audience reach and engagement on NYT's premium digital platforms to promote their products and services to a high-value demographic.
Competition
Print Advertising
$0.2B TTM (5.53% of Total) · 24% MarginWhat It Is
Advertising placements in the physical New York Times newspaper, including display and classified ads.
Who Pays & How
Businesses, predominantly local and national, pay for advertising space in the physical newspaper to reach a specific, often older and affluent, demographic of readers.
Competition
Other Revenue
$0.4B TTM (12.49% of Total) · 24% MarginWhat It Is
Content licensing, Wirecutter affiliate revenue, live events, and other miscellaneous revenue streams.
Who Pays & How
Third-party content platforms pay for licensing of NYT content; e-commerce partners pay affiliate commissions; individuals pay for tickets to NYT-hosted events.
Competition
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