Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Market Price (2/24/2026): $730.0 | Market Cap: $104.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Market Price (2/24/2026): $730.0Market Cap: $104.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.3 Bil | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.6%, Dist 3Y High is -1.6% | Key risksNOC key risks include [1] major execution challenges, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.6%, Dist 3Y High is -1.6% |
| Key risksNOC key risks include [1] major execution challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Northrop Grumman (NOC) stock has gained about 25% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Northrop Grumman reported robust financial performance, exceeding earnings expectations and increasing its profit outlook for 2025. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the third quarter of 2025 reached $7.67, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.49 by 18.2%. This strong performance led Northrop Grumman to raise its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $25.65-$26.05 per share from its previous forecast. Furthermore, fourth-quarter 2025 sales increased 10% to $11.7 billion, and operating income rose 17% to $1.3 billion, with full-year 2025 sales reaching $42.0 billion and diluted EPS of $29.08. This consistent outperformance and positive outlook reinforced investor confidence.
2. The company achieved a record order backlog and secured significant new contracts, signaling strong future revenue generation. Northrop Grumman's total backlog grew to an unprecedented $95.7 billion by the end of 2025, supported by a full-year book-to-bill ratio of 1.10. Key contract wins during the period include a $764 million award from the Space Development Agency (SDA) in December 2025 to build and operate 18 Tranche 3 Tracking Layer satellites. Additionally, Northrop Grumman was awarded defense contracts totaling approximately $149 million in December 2025, encompassing research and development, air and missile defense systems, and B-2 forward duct assemblies manufacturing. The U.S. Air Force also granted Northrop Grumman a ceiling contract worth up to $100 million in December 2025 to advance its Stand-In Attack Weapon (SiAW) and Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile Extended Range (AARGM-ER) programs.
Show more
1. Northrop Grumman reported robust financial performance, exceeding earnings expectations and increasing its profit outlook for 2025. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the third quarter of 2025 reached $7.67, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.49 by 18.2%. This strong performance led Northrop Grumman to raise its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $25.65-$26.05 per share from its previous forecast. Furthermore, fourth-quarter 2025 sales increased 10% to $11.7 billion, and operating income rose 17% to $1.3 billion, with full-year 2025 sales reaching $42.0 billion and diluted EPS of $29.08. This consistent outperformance and positive outlook reinforced investor confidence.
2. The company achieved a record order backlog and secured significant new contracts, signaling strong future revenue generation. Northrop Grumman's total backlog grew to an unprecedented $95.7 billion by the end of 2025, supported by a full-year book-to-bill ratio of 1.10. Key contract wins during the period include a $764 million award from the Space Development Agency (SDA) in December 2025 to build and operate 18 Tranche 3 Tracking Layer satellites. Additionally, Northrop Grumman was awarded defense contracts totaling approximately $149 million in December 2025, encompassing research and development, air and missile defense systems, and B-2 forward duct assemblies manufacturing. The U.S. Air Force also granted Northrop Grumman a ceiling contract worth up to $100 million in December 2025 to advance its Stand-In Attack Weapon (SiAW) and Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile Extended Range (AARGM-ER) programs.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.2% change in NOC stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 579.24 | 725.39 | 25.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 40,928 | 41,954 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.8% | 10.0% | 1.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.6 | 24.7 | 19.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 143 | 143 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOC | 25.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.7% | 38.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.2% change in NOC stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 570.21 | 725.39 | 27.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 40,501 | 41,954 | 3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.8 | 24.7 | 19.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 144 | 143 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOC | 27.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 6.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 15.5% | 37.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 51.9% change in NOC stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 48.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 477.42 | 725.39 | 51.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 41,033 | 41,954 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.2% | 10.0% | -2.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.6 | 24.7 | 48.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 146 | 143 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 51.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOC | 51.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.4% | 4.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 27.7% | 21.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 70.8% change in NOC stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 85.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 424.76 | 725.39 | 70.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 36,602 | 41,954 | 14.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.4% | 10.0% | -25.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.3 | 24.7 | 85.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 154 | 143 | 7.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 70.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOC | 70.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.1% | 7.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 79.1% | 26.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NOC Return | 29% | 43% | -13% | 2% | 24% | 27% | 159% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 15% | 6% | 5% | 32% | 16% | 127% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NOC Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 55% | 47% | 60% | 62% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NOC Max Drawdown | -6% | -4% | -22% | -9% | -8% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -10% | -18% | -13% | -11% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LMT, RTX, BA, GD, LHX. See NOC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NOC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 656 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 564 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 226 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,691 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to LMT, RTX, BA, GD, LHX
In The Past
Northrop Grumman's stock fell -23.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/31/2022. A -23.5% loss requires a 30.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense company worldwide. The company's Aeronautics Systems segment designs, develops, manufactures, integrates, and sustains aircraft systems. This segment also offers unmanned autonomous aircraft systems, including high-altitude long-endurance strategic ISR systems and vertical take-off and landing tactical ISR systems; and strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air dominance aircraft, and airborne battle management and command and control systems. Its Defense Systems segment designs, develops, and produces weapons and mission systems. It offers products and services, such as integrated battle management systems, weapons systems and aircraft, and mission systems. This segment also provides command and control and weapons systems, including munitions and missiles; precision strike weapons; propulsion, such as air-breathing and hypersonic systems; gun systems and precision munitions; life cycle service and support for software, weapons systems, and aircraft; and logistics support, sustainment, operation, and modernization for air, sea, and ground systems. The company's Mission Systems segment offers cyber, command, control, communications and computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems; radar, electro-optical/infrared and acoustic sensors; electronic warfare systems; advanced communications and network systems; cyber solutions; intelligence processing systems; navigation; and maritime power, propulsion, and payload launch systems. This segment also provides airborne multifunction sensors; maritime/land systems and sensors; navigation, targeting, and survivability solutions; and networked information solutions. Its Space Systems segment offers satellites and payloads; ground systems; missile defense systems and interceptors; launch vehicles and related propulsion systems; and strategic missiles. The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Falls Church, Virginia.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Northrop Grumman is like Boeing, but solely focused on advanced military aircraft, spacecraft, and defense systems rather than commercial airliners.
Alternatively, think of them as an IBM for national security, developing cutting-edge defense software, hardware, and integrated systems for governments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the major products and services of Northrop Grumman:- B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber: Developing the next-generation strategic stealth bomber for the U.S. Air Force.
- E-2D Advanced Hawkeye: Provides an airborne early warning and control aircraft for surveillance and battle management.
- Global Hawk Unmanned Aircraft System: Delivers high-altitude, long-endurance intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities.
- Space Systems (Satellites & Components): Manufactures and integrates satellites, including major components for observatories like the James Webb Space Telescope, and various defense and intelligence satellites.
- Launch Vehicles & Propulsion: Develops and produces launch vehicles (e.g., Antares) and solid rocket propulsion systems for space and missile applications.
- Sentinel (formerly GBSD): Prime contractor for the modern replacement of the U.S. intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system.
- Integrated Air and Missile Defense Systems: Provides command and control systems like IBCS to integrate various air and missile defense assets.
- Advanced Radar and Sensor Systems: Develops sophisticated radar and sensor technologies for airborne, naval, and ground-based platforms.
- Cyber and C4ISR Solutions: Offers cybersecurity services and develops Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Northrop Grumman (NOC) primarily sells its advanced systems, products, and services to government entities, rather than primarily to other companies or individuals. Therefore, the conditions for listing customer companies with symbols or describing categories of individual customers do not directly apply in the conventional sense.
Its major customers are:
- The U.S. Government: This is Northrop Grumman's principal customer, accounting for the vast majority of its sales. Within the U.S. government, key customers include:
- U.S. Department of Defense (DoD): This encompasses all branches of the U.S. military (Air Force, Navy, Army, Marine Corps) and various defense agencies. Northrop Grumman supplies a wide array of products and services, including strategic bombers (e.g., B-2 Spirit, B-21 Raider), autonomous systems, missile defense, advanced electronics, and cybersecurity solutions.
- U.S. Intelligence Community: Various U.S. intelligence agencies procure specialized systems, platforms, and services for intelligence gathering and analysis.
- NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration): Northrop Grumman provides critical support for space exploration missions, satellite systems, and scientific instruments.
- International Governments: While a smaller portion of overall revenue compared to U.S. government sales, Northrop Grumman also sells its products and services to allied foreign governments and their respective defense ministries. These sales often occur through U.S. government Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programs or direct commercial sales, involving items such as military aircraft, unmanned systems, radar technology, and related support services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- RTX Corporation (RTX)
- General Electric (GE)
- Honeywell International Inc. (HON)
- L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (LHX)
- Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR)
- Ball Corporation (BALL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Kathy Warden, Chair, Chief Executive Officer and President
Kathy Warden joined Northrop Grumman in 2008 and has served as Chair, CEO, and President since 2019. Prior to her current role, she was President and Chief Operating Officer, overseeing the company's four sectors and enterprise services organization. Before joining Northrop Grumman, Warden held leadership positions at General Dynamics and Veridian Corporation. She was also a principal in a venture internet firm, helping companies improve their business models and electronic publishing services, and spent nearly a decade with General Electric Company working in commercial industries.
David Keffer, Corporate Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
David Keffer was elected Corporate Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Northrop Grumman in 2020. Prior to his tenure at Northrop Grumman, Keffer served as a general partner at Blue Delta Capital Partners, a private equity firm. He also held the position of Chief Financial Officer for CSRA, Inc., where he was involved in the integration of SRA International and CSC Government Services to form CSRA, and helped take CSRA public in late 2015. CSRA was subsequently acquired by General Dynamics in 2018. Earlier in his career, he was the CFO of SRA International.
Mark Caylor, Corporate Vice President and President, Mission Systems
Mark Caylor joined Northrop Grumman in 2002 and is currently the Corporate Vice President and President of the Mission Systems sector. In this role, he leads the development and production of large-scale, mission-critical platforms and systems. His previous positions at Northrop Grumman include corporate vice president and president of Enterprise Services, chief strategy officer, and treasurer, where he was responsible for capital structure management and mergers and acquisitions.
Thomas (Tom) H. Jones, Corporate Vice President and President, Aeronautics Systems
Thomas H. Jones serves as the Corporate Vice President and President of Northrop Grumman's Aeronautics Systems sector, overseeing military aircraft, autonomous systems, and aerospace structures. Before this role, he held various leadership positions within the Mission Systems sector, including Vice President and General Manager of the Airborne Sensors & Networks division.
Roshan Roeder, Corporate Vice President and President, Defense Systems
Roshan Roeder is the Corporate Vice President and President of Northrop Grumman's Defense Systems sector. Previously, she served as vice president and general manager of airborne multifunction sensors within Northrop Grumman's mission systems business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Northrop Grumman's business include:
- Dependence on U.S. Government Contracts and Defense Spending: A significant majority of Northrop Grumman's revenue, approximately 85% to 87%, is generated from the U.S. federal government, predominantly the Department of Defense. This reliance exposes the company to considerable risks from potential budget cuts, delays in appropriations, shifts in government spending priorities, prolonged continuing resolutions, or government shutdowns. Any of these factors could materially impact the company's revenue and profitability.
- Major Program Execution Risks: Northrop Grumman faces substantial operational risks associated with its large, long-duration contracts, particularly the B-21 Raider and Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) programs. Both programs are multi-billion dollar endeavors, and any cost overruns, performance issues, or delays can significantly impact the company's financial performance and revenue guidance. The B-21 program, for instance, has generated concerns regarding soaring costs and profit warnings, leading to a notable drop in stock price. The Sentinel program has also faced scrutiny, including a Nunn-McCurdy breach review, due to macroeconomic influences.
- Supply Chain and Labor Challenges: The company's operations are susceptible to risks within its supply chain, which includes reliance on subcontractors and suppliers for critical raw materials and components. This can lead to delays, increased costs, and quality control issues. Furthermore, Northrop Grumman faces challenges in attracting and retaining a skilled workforce with the necessary security clearances, especially within a competitive labor market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The rise of agile, software-first defense technology companies such as Anduril and Palantir. These companies are demonstrating the ability to rapidly develop and deploy advanced artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and data integration platforms, challenging the traditional defense acquisition model and potentially capturing market share in critical software-defined capabilities that are increasingly central to modern warfare.
- Disruption in the space sector from commercial players like SpaceX. Companies such as SpaceX are driving down launch costs, increasing the cadence of launches, and demonstrating highly scalable satellite constellations (e.g., Starlink/Starshield). This shifts the paradigm for space capabilities, potentially leading government procurement towards more cost-effective, rapidly deployable, and resilient commercial solutions, thus threatening Northrop Grumman's traditional business in high-cost, bespoke satellite systems and launch services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Northrop Grumman (NOC) operates across several critical sectors within the defense, aerospace, and technology industries. The addressable markets for its main products and services vary by segment and region.
Overall Defense and Aerospace Market
- The global aerospace and defense market is projected to reach $1,102.16 billion by 2029, growing from $796.24 billion in 2024.
- The global defense market was valued at approximately $473.47 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to $682.10 billion by 2029.
- Another estimate places the global defense market at USD 2,619.58 billion in 2025, with a projected increase to USD 4,268.06 billion by 2035.
- Global defense spending is anticipated to exceed USD 6.38 trillion by 2035.
Aeronautics Systems (Military Aircraft, Unmanned Systems, Aerospace Parts)
- The global aerospace market size was valued at USD 373.61 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 791.78 billion by 2034. North America accounts for over 46% of this market.
- The U.S. aerospace market alone was valued at USD 120.30 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 259.57 billion by 2034.
- The global aerospace parts manufacturing market was estimated at USD 913.13 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 1,233.24 billion by 2030. North America held the largest revenue share in this market, at 51.7% in 2023.
Space Systems (Spacecraft, Missile Systems, Satellites)
- Northrop Grumman's Space Systems segment reported $11.7 billion in sales in 2024. The company holds an estimated 8.7% market share in the U.S. Space Vehicle & Missile Manufacturing industry.
- A specific total addressable market size for "Space Vehicle & Missile Manufacturing" globally or for the U.S. was not found to provide an overarching market size beyond Northrop Grumman's direct revenue and market share in the U.S. segment.
Mission Systems (Military Radar, Sensors, C4ISR, Cybersecurity)
- The global cybersecurity market was estimated at USD 245.62 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 500.70 billion by 2030. North America dominated this market with a revenue share exceeding 34% in 2024.
- Another estimate for the global cybersecurity market indicates a size of USD 299.6 billion in 2024, with expectations to reach USD 644.4 billion by 2033. North America's market share was over 35.0% in 2024.
- The mission systems segment of the broader defense market, which includes military radar and sensors, accounted for 37.71% or $178.55 billion of the total defense market in 2024.
Autonomous Systems (Unmanned Systems, Autonomous Platforms)
- The global autonomous systems market was estimated at USD 4.10 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 14.58 billion by 2034. North America held the largest share of this market at 38% in 2024.
- Another projection for the global autonomous system market indicates a growth to over USD 11.3 billion by 2032, from approximately USD 4.7 billion in 2025.
- The global autonomous systems hardware market, a component of autonomous systems, was valued at $20.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $61.7 billion by 2033.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Northrop Grumman (NOC) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors stemming from robust demand in the global defense sector and strategic program execution.
- Growing Demand for Advanced Defense Systems and Modernization: Northrop Grumman anticipates sustained demand for advanced defense systems and modernization initiatives from both the U.S. and international allies. This includes a focus on areas such as air and missile defense, ground-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), and advanced weapons systems. The company's strong order backlog, which reached $91.45 billion in the latest quarter and grew 7.6% year-on-year, underscores this demand and provides multi-year revenue visibility.
- Ramp-up of Key Programs and New Contract Awards: Significant programs like the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program (formerly GBSD), and continued involvement in the F-35 (primarily through Mission Systems) are expected to be major revenue contributors. Management has also highlighted progress on the Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS) with a strong flight test record. Discussions are ongoing regarding accelerating the B-21 production rate, which could further boost future sales. New contract awards, totaling $12.2 billion in a recent quarter, consistently replenish the company's robust backlog.
- International Market Expansion: Northrop Grumman is experiencing significant acceleration in its international business, with international sales growing 32% in a recent quarter and expected to outpace U.S. sales growth in 2025. This expansion is fueled by increased demand from allied nations prioritizing investments in air and missile defense, ground-based ISR, and advanced weapons systems.
- Increased U.S. and Allied Defense Spending: Analysts and company management point to accelerating defense spending by the U.S. and its allies as a fundamental driver. This includes substantial increases in procurement and Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&E) budgets. Bipartisan support for defense spending is viewed as a key pillar for long-term growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Northrop Grumman executed significant share repurchases, with annual amounts of $2.514 billion in 2024, $1.5 billion in 2023, and $1.504 billion in 2022.
- In December 2024, the company's board of directors authorized an additional $3 billion for common stock repurchases, increasing the total outstanding authorization to approximately $4.2 billion.
- As of September 2025, Northrop Grumman had $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization.
Outbound Investments
- Northrop Grumman divested its IT Services business in 2021.
- The company agreed to divest its mission training and satellite ground network communications software business to Serco Inc.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for Northrop Grumman averaged $1.562 billion from fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024.
- Capital expenditures peaked at $1.775 billion in December 2023 and were $1.767 billion in 2024.
- A notable portion of the increased capital expenditures in 2023 was allocated to the Space Systems segment. Strategic investments in solid rocket motor capacity were also reported, with annual production rates expected to increase.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to NOC.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01302026 | FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.7% |
| 01302026 | PAYC | Paycom Software | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -15.1% | -15.1% | -15.1% |
| 01302026 | HTZ | Hertz Global | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -9.6% | -9.6% | -9.6% |
| 01232026 | PAYX | Paychex | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -18.0% | -18.0% | -18.0% |
| 01022026 | CPRT | Copart | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.4% | -6.4% | -6.4% |
| 12312018 | NOC | Northrop Grumman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.2% | 42.7% | -2.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 352.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 128.0 |
| Rev LTM | 63,799 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,818 |
| FCF LTM | 3,633 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,165 |
| CFO LTM | 4,938 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,494 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 128.0 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 23.7 |
| P/E | 35.4 |
| P/CFO | 21.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 28.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 59.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 21.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 18.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 48.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space Systems | 11,873 | 12,275 | 10,608 | 8,744 | 7,425 |
| Mission Systems | 10,895 | 10,396 | 10,134 | 10,080 | 9,410 |
| Aeronautics Systems | 10,786 | 10,531 | 11,259 | 12,169 | 11,116 |
| Defense Systems | 8,289 | 5,579 | 5,776 | 7,543 | 7,495 |
| Intersegment profit eliminations | -2,553 | -2,179 | -2,110 | -1,737 | -1,605 |
| Total | 39,290 | 36,602 | 35,667 | 36,799 | 33,841 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mission Systems | 1,609 | 1,618 | 1,579 | 1,459 | 1,408 |
| Space Systems | 1,130 | 1,158 | 1,121 | 893 | 794 |
| Defense Systems | 829 | 664 | 696 | 846 | 793 |
| Financial Accounting Standards (FAS)/Cost Accounting Standards (CAS) operating adjustment | -82 | -200 | 130 | 418 | 465 |
| Unallocated corporate expense | -141 | -452 | 1,304 | -541 | -474 |
| Intersegment profit eliminations | -335 | -303 | -272 | -216 | -205 |
| Aeronautics Systems | -473 | 1,116 | 1,093 | 1,206 | 1,188 |
| Total | 2,537 | 3,601 | 5,651 | 4,065 | 3,969 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $725.39 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 103.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/31/1981 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -1.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $638.79 | $569.89 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 13.6% | 27.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 30.0% | 28.5% |
| Downside Capture | -3.47 | -16.49 |
| Upside Capture | 156.17 | 36.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 14.7% | 5.7% |
NOC Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.21 | 0.93 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Up Beta | 0.79 | 1.20 | 0.14 | -0.07 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Down Beta | 1.15 | 0.62 | 0.19 | 0.45 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Up Capture | 343% | 245% | 104% | 43% | 18% | 5% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 25 | 33 | 65 | 140 | 398 |
| Down Capture | -79% | -23% | 2% | 4% | -21% | 6% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 59 | 110 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NOC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOC | 69.3% | 28.5% | 1.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 28.2% | 19.2% | 1.17 | 22.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 19.4% | 0.50 | 5.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 79.1% | 25.7% | 2.25 | 21.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.7% | 16.9% | 0.27 | 14.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 16.7% | 0.21 | 16.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.9% | 44.9% | -0.69 | 5.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NOC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOC | 22.1% | 24.7% | 0.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 15.8% | 17.2% | 0.74 | 32.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 15.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 17.1% | 1.12 | 12.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.0% | 0.45 | 15.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 21.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.7% | 57.1% | 0.34 | 2.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NOC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOC | 16.8% | 25.0% | 0.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 15.4% | 19.8% | 0.69 | 49.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 37.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.1% | 15.6% | 0.81 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 16.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.9% | 20.7% | 0.30 | 35.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 5.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/27/2026 | 2.7% | 3.6% | |
| 10/21/2025 | -0.4% | -1.0% | -5.9% |
| 7/22/2025 | 9.4% | 10.3% | 13.8% |
| 4/22/2025 | -12.7% | -9.0% | -10.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | 0.4% | -1.9% | -4.1% |
| 10/24/2024 | 1.4% | -2.1% | -3.9% |
| 7/25/2024 | 6.4% | 9.5% | 15.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | 2.8% | 2.5% | -1.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -3.1% | -3.7% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 10.3% | 15.3% |
| Max Negative | -12.7% | -9.0% | -10.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 01/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/25/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/26/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roeder, Roshan S | CVP & Pres. Mission Systems | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 555.35 | 84 | 46,649 | 224,311 | Form |
| 2 | Welsh, Mark A Iii | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 564.08 | 97 | 54,716 | 2,414,815 | Form | |
| 3 | Jones, Thomas H | CVP & Pres Aeronautics Systems | Direct | Sell | 7182025 | 525.00 | 729 | 382,725 | 3,258,462 | Form |
| 4 | Welsh, Mark A Iii | Direct | Sell | 7082025 | 506.67 | 33 | 16,720 | 2,210,616 | Form | |
| 5 | Fleming, Robert J | CVP and Pres. Space Systems | Direct | Sell | 6162025 | 505.77 | 3,500 | 1,770,195 | 923,976 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.