National Health Investors (NHI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $79.1 | Market Cap: $3.8 Bil
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Health Care REITs
National Health Investors (NHI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $79.1
Market Cap: $3.8 Bil
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Health Care REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.3%, Dividend Yield is 4.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.1%, FCF Yield is 6.0% | Trading close to highs Dist 52W High is -1.5%, Dist 3Y High is -1.6% | Expensive valuation multiples P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x |
| Attractive operating margins Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 52% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64% | ||
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 20% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care. |
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.3%, Dividend Yield is 4.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.1%, FCF Yield is 6.0% |
| Attractive operating margins Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 52% |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64% |
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care. |
| Trading close to highs Dist 52W High is -1.5%, Dist 3Y High is -1.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiples P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NHI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
National Health Investors (NHI) stock experienced movements between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, influenced by a few key events. The stock closed at $78.85 on December 3, 2025, reflecting a 0.81% gain on that day and a 0.7% gain over the preceding two weeks.
Here are five key points highlighting the stock's movement during the approximate period:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Performance: National Health Investors reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 6, 2025, with an EPS of $0.69, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $0.6504 by 6.09%. This positive earnings surprise indicated strong profitability and contributed to investor confidence, leading to a 2.29% increase in the stock price, closing at $75.31 after the announcement.
2. Increased Normalized FFO and Raised Full-Year Guidance: For the third quarter of 2025, NHI's normalized FFO per diluted share increased by 28% to $1.32 compared to the prior year's third quarter. The company also raised its full-year 2025 guidance for normalized FFO by 10.4% year-over-year, projecting it to be in the range of $4.88 to $4.91 per diluted share. This upward revision signaled a positive outlook for future financial performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NHI Return | -9% | -12% | -3% | 15% | 31% | 17% | 37% |
| Peers Return | -17% | 10% | -14% | 15% | 19% | 30% | 39% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NHI Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 53% | 42% | 57% | 67% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NHI Max Drawdown | -59% | -23% | -10% | -8% | -8% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -10% | -26% | -13% | -15% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VTR, HR, SBRA, UHT, WELL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NHI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 996 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 170.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 300 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 378 days | 1480 days |
Compare to VTR, HR, SBRA, UHT, WELL
In The Past
National Health Investors's stock fell -34.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -34.5% loss requires a 52.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NHI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
| 06302020 | NHI | National Health Investors | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.2% | 17.5% | -8.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
| 06302020 | NHI | National Health Investors | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.2% | 17.5% | -8.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for National Health Investors
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 59.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| Rev LTM | 965 |
| Op Inc LTM | 225 |
| FCF LTM | 284 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 270 |
| CFO LTM | 402 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 402 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 42.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 42.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 37.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| P/EBIT | 17.2 |
| P/E | 27.9 |
| P/CFO | 15.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 76.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 14.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.