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Newmont (NEM)

Market Price (2/11/2026): $121.53 | Market Cap: $133.3 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Gold

Newmont (NEM)

Market Price (2/11/2026): $121.53
Market Cap: $133.3 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Gold

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%		 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 166%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44%		 Key risks
NEM key risks include [1] rising production costs eroding profitability and [2] legal and tax disputes stemming from its extensive global operational footprint.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 9.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.1 Bil		 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%		 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more.		 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 9.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.1 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more.
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 166%
6 Key risks
NEM key risks include [1] rising production costs eroding profitability and [2] legal and tax disputes stemming from its extensive global operational footprint.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Newmont (NEM) stock has gained about 50% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Sustained Rally in Gold Prices: The primary driver for Newmont's stock appreciation was a significant and sustained increase in gold prices, which reached record highs during the period from late 2025 into early 2026. Gold futures, for instance, were trading around $4,040.35 per ounce on October 31, 2025, and climbed to over $5,036.84 per troy ounce by February 9, 2026. Analysts further project gold prices to climb above $4,000 per ounce by the second half of 2026 and potentially reach $5,750 in 2026, supported by robust central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold gained 65% in 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.

2. Strong Financial Performance and Optimistic Outlook: Newmont demonstrated robust financial results, notably in its Q3 2025 earnings report (released October 23, 2025), where it exceeded analyst expectations with an adjusted earnings per share of $1.71 against a consensus of $1.29, and revenue beat estimates by over 11%. The company reported a significant increase in adjusted net income during the first half of 2025, with adjusted net profit margin rising to 29%. Newmont's 2025 earnings are expected to be $6.06 per share, representing a 74.14% increase year-over-year, with further growth projected for 2026. This strong operational and financial performance, including record operating cash flows, significantly boosted investor confidence.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 50.5% change in NEM stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 50.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252102026Change
Stock Price ($)80.74121.5350.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)21,50321,5030.0%
Net Income Margin (%)33.4%33.4%0.0%
P/E Multiple12.318.550.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,0971,0970.0%
Cumulative Contribution50.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NEM50.5% 
Market (SPY)1.5%45.9%
Sector (XLB)23.5%57.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 96.9% change in NEM stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 70.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120252102026Change
Stock Price ($)61.71121.5396.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)20,58421,5034.5%
Net Income Margin (%)30.5%33.4%9.6%
P/E Multiple10.918.570.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,1101,0971.2%
Cumulative Contribution96.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NEM96.9% 
Market (SPY)9.8%26.1%
Sector (XLB)21.2%43.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 189.3% change in NEM stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 118.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120252102026Change
Stock Price ($)42.01121.53189.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)16,98721,50326.6%
P/S Multiple2.86.2118.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,1471,0974.6%
Cumulative Contribution189.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NEM189.3% 
Market (SPY)16.0%24.1%
Sector (XLB)20.9%40.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 149.0% change in NEM stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 303.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)13120232102026Change
Stock Price ($)48.81121.53149.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12,10521,50377.6%
Net Income Margin (%)8.3%33.4%303.8%
P/E Multiple38.718.5-52.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7941,097-27.6%
Cumulative Contribution149.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NEM149.0% 
Market (SPY)76.6%23.5%
Sector (XLB)31.9%41.0%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NEM Return7%-21%-9%-8%173%21%136%
Peers Return33%-2%23%19%90%41%410%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%2%85%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NEM Win Rate42%50%58%58%92%100% 
Peers Win Rate53%47%58%45%72%100% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%100% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NEM Max Drawdown-9%-37%-26%-28%0%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-32%-14%-16%-13%0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOLD, AEM, FCX, SCCO, KGC. See NEM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/10/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNEMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-60.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven151.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven692 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-24.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven27 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven469 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-61.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven161.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven561 days1,480 days

Compare to GOLD, AEM, FCX, SCCO, KGC

In The Past

Newmont's stock fell -60.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -60.3% loss requires a 151.6% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Newmont (NEM)

Newmont Corporation engages in the production and exploration of gold. It also explores for copper, silver, zinc, and lead. The company has operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and Ghana. As of December 31, 2021, it had proven and probable gold reserves of 92.8 million ounces and land position of 62,800 square kilometers. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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  • ExxonMobil for gold mining
  • Chevron for gold mining

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Newmont (NEM) Major Products

  • Gold: Newmont's primary product, this precious metal is mined globally and sold for investment, jewelry, and industrial applications.
  • Copper: A significant byproduct from many of its mines, copper is an industrial metal essential for electrical wiring, construction, and various technologies.
  • Silver: Often produced as a byproduct alongside gold and copper, silver is a precious metal used in jewelry, electronics, and industrial photography.
  • Zinc: A base metal byproduct, zinc is primarily used for galvanizing steel to prevent rust and in other industrial applications.
  • Lead: Also produced as a byproduct, lead is a heavy metal primarily used in batteries and various industrial manufacturing processes.

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Newmont (NEM) primarily sells its gold production to **other companies**. Newmont does not publicly disclose the specific names of its major customers, which is a common practice for commodity producers due to competitive reasons and the fungible nature of their products. However, based on their annual filings, Newmont indicates that it sells its gold to a limited number of precious metals refiners and traders. In 2023, approximately 60% of its gold sales were to four such customers. Therefore, the major categories of customers for Newmont are: * **Precious Metals Refiners:** These companies process raw gold doré (unrefined gold bars) and concentrates into investment-grade bullion bars, coins, and other gold products for industrial or financial use. Most major refiners (e.g., Valcambi, PAMP, Metalor, Rand Refinery, Heraeus) are privately owned. * **Precious Metals Traders and Dealers:** These companies purchase gold for onward sale to various clients, including financial institutions, industrial users, jewelers, and individual investors. While some large banks (e.g., JPMorgan Chase, HSBC) operate significant precious metals trading desks, they source from various suppliers, and specific direct sales relationships from miners are typically not disclosed. There are no prominent publicly traded pure-play precious metals trading firms that are consistently named as direct major customers of miners.

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  • Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
  • Komatsu Ltd. (KMTUY)
  • Orica Limited (ORI.AX)

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Tom Palmer, Chief Executive Officer

Tom Palmer joined Newmont in 2014 and was appointed Chief Executive Officer in October 2019, becoming only the 10th CEO in Newmont's history. He has led the company through a period of strategic transformation, including the acquisition of Goldcorp in 2019, the establishment of the Nevada Gold Mines Joint Venture, and the landmark acquisition of Newcrest in November 2023. Prior to joining Newmont, he spent over 20 years with Rio Tinto, where he served as Chief Operating Officer for Pilbara Iron Ore Mines. He is scheduled to retire at the end of 2025.

Peter Wexler, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Interim Chief Financial Officer

Peter Wexler joined Newmont in March 2024 and was appointed interim Chief Financial Officer, effective July 11, 2025. He also continues to serve as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer. Peter is a seasoned legal and risk management leader with more than three decades of international experience, including managing legal, risk, compliance, M&A, antitrust, litigation, and corporate governance affairs. Before joining Newmont, he served for 15 years as Chief Legal Officer at Schneider Electric, a Global 500 business.

Natascha Viljoen, President and Chief Operating Officer

Natascha Viljoen joined Newmont in 2023 as Chief Operating Officer, overseeing the company's operations with a focus on integration of acquired assets, portfolio optimization, and talent development. She brings more than three decades of global leadership experience across multiple commodities and continents. Natascha Viljoen is set to become Newmont's next Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2026, and will be the first woman to lead the company in its more than 100-year history.

Jennifer Cmil, Executive Vice President and Chief People Officer

Jennifer Cmil was appointed Executive Vice President, Human Resources in October 2019, having joined Newmont in 2010. She previously held roles as Senior Vice President, Human Resources, Group Executive, Human Resources, and Senior Director, Human Resources at Newmont. Before her tenure at Newmont, Ms. Cmil held leadership positions in human resources across various industries, including Vice President of Human Resources at Level 3 Telecommunications, Senior Human Resources Director at KB Home, and Human Resources Business Partner at Sun Microsystems, where she began her career in 1994.

Francois Hardy, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer

Francois Hardy was promoted to Chief Technology Officer in May 2024. He previously served as Senior Vice President, Exploration since February 2022 and as Regional Senior Vice President, Africa since 2019. His experience at Newmont also includes serving as Regional Project Director for Newmont Australia and as the General Manager of the Tanami gold mine, where he led a team responsible for improving the operation into a Tier 1 asset.

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Newmont Corporation (NEM) faces several significant risks to its business, primarily stemming from its reliance on commodity markets, the complexities of global mining operations, and the evolving regulatory landscape.

The most significant risk to Newmont's business is Commodity Market Volatility. As the world's leading gold producer, Newmont's revenue and profitability are directly and substantially impacted by fluctuations in the market price of gold and other metals. The company's financial performance, including its ability to generate cash flow, is highly sensitive to these price movements. A significant decline in gold prices could adversely affect revenue, net income, operating cash flow, and potentially lead to the deferral or halt of new projects and reduced funds for exploration.

Secondly, Operational Challenges and Costs pose a substantial risk. Newmont faces rising production costs, as evidenced by increases in costs applicable to sales. These challenges can erode the company's competitive advantage and profitability if not managed effectively. Furthermore, the inability to continually replace gold reserves depleted by production is a conspicuous risk that could impact long-term production levels. Operational risks also include site-specific issues such as critical equipment failures, water supply limitations, potential impacts from extreme weather events, and safety incidents, which can lead to stock dips and reputational damage.

Finally, Regulatory, Legal, and Geopolitical Risks represent another key area of concern. Newmont's extensive global presence exposes it to a complex web of regulatory environments, leading to potential legal challenges, compliance costs, and disputes (e.g., with tax authorities). Geopolitical risks and broader macroeconomic pressures, such as inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor market uncertainties, can adversely affect Newmont's operational efficiency and cost structure. Additionally, the company faces potential legal risks related to environmental regulations, including those concerning greenhouse gas emissions and water management, and could incur increased costs due to carbon taxes or litigation.

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Newmont (NEM) operates in the mining industry, with its main products being gold, copper, and silver. The addressable markets for these products are global.

  • Gold: The global gold market size was valued at approximately USD 291.68 billion in 2024.
  • Copper: The global copper market size was estimated at approximately USD 241.88 billion in 2024.
  • Silver: The global silver market size was valued at approximately USD 87.12 billion in 2024.

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Newmont (NEM) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:

  1. Sustained Higher Gold Prices: Analysts anticipate that rising average gold prices will continue to be a significant catalyst for Newmont's revenue growth. Projections indicate gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, benefiting Newmont as the world's largest gold producer.
  2. Strategic Operational Expansions and Project Development: Newmont's strategic expansion initiatives, including the integration of Newcrest Mining acquired in 2023, have broadened its production capacity and improved its overall portfolio and operational scale. The company is also advancing high-return projects like Ahafo North in Ghana, which is expected to commence gold production in the fourth quarter of 2025 and contribute an additional 150,000 to 200,000 ounces of gold per year for the initial five years (2028-2032).
  3. Increased Production from Key Mines: Newmont is forecasting an increase in its overall gold production, with analysts projecting an average of approximately 6 million ounces per annum by 2028, up from 5.6 million ounces in 2025. Specific production gains are anticipated from higher gold grades at the Peñasquito mine in 2025, projected to increase gold production by 30%, and ongoing investment in stripping at the Boddington mine.
  4. Portfolio Optimization and Divestment of Non-Core Assets: Newmont has been actively divesting non-core and higher-cost assets, such as six smaller mines following the Newcrest acquisition, shares in Orla Mining, the Coffee Project, Akyem, and Porcupine operations. This strategy aims to streamline operations, enhance the balance sheet, improve operational efficiency, and allow the company to concentrate on higher-margin, Tier 1 assets, thereby boosting overall profitability and cash flow.
  5. Cost Optimization and Operational Efficiency Improvements: The company has implemented various cost optimization measures, including restructuring into two business units to decentralize decision-making. These efforts, coupled with technological advancements, are expected to drive positive financial performance and enhance operational efficiency. Newmont's management reduced guidance for 2025 General & Administrative (G&A), exploration, and advanced projects by approximately 15% through these restructuring and productivity initiatives.

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Share Repurchases

  • In January 2021, Newmont's Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of up to $1.0 billion.
  • An additional $3.0 billion share repurchase program was approved in July 2025, increasing the total authorized amount to $6.0 billion.
  • As of October 23, 2025, Newmont had executed and settled approximately $3.3 billion in common stock repurchases, with $2.7 billion remaining under the authorized programs.

Share Issuance

  • Information regarding significant share issuances by Newmont was not available in the provided sources. Macrotrends data indicates net common equity issued/repurchased for 2022-2025 showing net repurchases.

Outbound Investments

  • Newmont acquired Newcrest Mining Ltd. for approximately $19.1 billion in May 2023, a transaction that was finalized in November 2023, expanding Newmont's global scope and solidifying its position as the world's largest gold miner.
  • The company engaged in a comprehensive divestiture program between 2024 and 2025, selling six non-core operations and two projects, generating over $3.5 billion in net cash proceeds in 2025.
  • These strategic divestitures, including the monetization of equity holdings in Greatland Resources and Discovery Silver Corp for approximately $470 million, aimed to refocus the portfolio on high-margin, long-life Tier 1 assets.

Capital Expenditures

  • Newmont's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024 averaged $2.041 billion, with a peak of $3.284 billion in December 2024.
  • For 2025, Newmont initially planned to invest approximately $1.8 billion in sustaining capital and $1.3 billion in development capital, totaling $3.1 billion, though forecasts improved with a $200 million reduction in capital expenditure due to optimized timing and reduced needs.
  • Primary focuses for capital expenditures include extending mine life at existing operations, advancing key projects like Ahafo North and Cadia Panel Caves, tailings management (e.g., $300 million for Cadia in 2025), water and infrastructure projects, and equipment reliability.

Interactive Breakdown

Newmont Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets vs. Newmont (NEM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleDate
0DASHBOARDS 
1Why Newmont Stock Jumped 180%?02/04/2026
2Newmont Stock May Have More Upside02/03/2026
3NEM Stock Surges 11% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Scotiabank's $152 Target01/29/2026
4What Is Happening With Newmont Stock?01/17/2026
5How Newmont Stock Gained 170%01/01/2026
6Newmont Earnings Notes12/26/2025
7How Newmont Stock Gained 90%11/21/2025
8Day 6 of Gains Streak for Newmont Stock with 18% Return (vs. 154% YTD) [11/12/2025]TREFISDASH11/13/2025
9ARTICLES 
10Newmont Stock’s Winning Streak May Not Be Over Yet02/03/2026
11S&P 500 Movers | Winners: DECK, VZ, CHTR | Losers: APP, KLAC, NEM01/30/2026
12NEM Stock Surges 11% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Scotiabank’s $152 Target01/29/2026
13Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High01/23/2026
14Gold At $4,500 Doesn’t Feel Like a Top — And That’s the Problem01/16/2026

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Financials

NEMGOLDAEMFCXSCCOKGCMedian
NameNewmont Gold.com Agnico E.Freeport.Southern.Kinross . 
Mkt Price121.5362.59211.8963.26198.9034.3192.39
Mkt Cap133.31.6106.490.9163.641.798.7
Rev LTM21,50315,67910,56826,00212,3356,44414,007
Op Inc LTM9,359545,2236,9346,1992,6085,711
FCF LTM6,1223103,6451,6253,4802,2412,861
FCF 3Y Avg2,6361162,0411,4193,0351,2741,730
CFO LTM9,2243235,8376,3534,6183,3485,228
CFO 3Y Avg5,6161283,8836,1424,1122,3803,997

Growth & Margins

NEMGOLDAEMFCXSCCOKGCMedian
NameNewmont Gold.com Agnico E.Freeport.Southern.Kinross . 
Rev Chg LTM26.6%48.0%35.2%1.4%12.7%32.9%29.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.9%26.1%26.0%4.1%7.1%29.5%24.9%
Rev Chg Q20.0%136.2%41.9%2.7%15.2%25.8%22.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%31.3%9.4%0.7%3.8%6.1%5.3%
Op Mgn LTM43.5%0.3%49.4%26.7%50.3%40.5%42.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg23.9%0.8%36.0%27.3%47.3%25.0%26.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.5%-0.0%3.6%-0.1%0.8%1.8%1.3%
CFO/Rev LTM42.9%2.1%55.2%24.4%37.4%52.0%40.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg32.6%0.9%45.6%24.7%36.6%45.2%34.6%
FCF/Rev LTM28.5%2.0%34.5%6.2%28.2%34.8%28.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.8%0.8%22.7%5.6%27.0%23.1%18.3%

Valuation

NEMGOLDAEMFCXSCCOKGCMedian
NameNewmont Gold.com Agnico E.Freeport.Southern.Kinross . 
Mkt Cap133.31.6106.490.9163.641.798.7
P/S6.20.110.13.513.36.56.3
P/EBIT12.821.220.312.725.715.618.0
P/E18.5124.530.943.942.823.736.8
P/CFO14.54.818.214.335.412.514.4
Total Yield6.2%1.4%3.9%3.2%3.7%4.6%3.8%
Dividend Yield0.8%0.6%0.7%1.0%1.4%0.4%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.4%14.7%3.8%2.3%3.6%7.7%3.7%
D/E0.00.50.00.10.00.00.0
Net D/E-0.00.4-0.00.10.0-0.00.0

Returns

NEMGOLDAEMFCXSCCOKGCMedian
NameNewmont Gold.com Agnico E.Freeport.Southern.Kinross . 
1M Rtn11.5%60.5%10.9%11.9%17.2%9.8%11.7%
3M Rtn35.5%142.5%26.5%54.4%45.2%35.5%40.4%
6M Rtn77.4%175.1%57.3%51.0%106.4%78.0%77.7%
12M Rtn166.0%120.9%113.5%66.8%112.2%185.3%117.2%
3Y Rtn174.7%135.1%343.1%55.3%204.5%760.3%189.6%
1M Excs Rtn11.9%60.8%11.2%12.3%17.6%10.2%12.1%
3M Excs Rtn43.0%146.3%28.4%56.1%44.1%38.0%43.5%
6M Excs Rtn68.6%179.0%48.3%44.6%102.1%71.1%69.9%
12M Excs Rtn160.4%109.5%103.0%52.6%97.7%176.1%106.2%
3Y Excs Rtn96.6%15.3%265.1%-15.4%128.3%655.1%112.4%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Nevada Gold Mines (NGM)2,2712,098   
Boddington1,8141,763   
Ahafo1,1301,023   
Peñasquito9012,189   
Tanami867878   
Merian625723   
Akyem574749   
Yanacocha537451   
Cerro Negro510508   
Porcupine503504   
Éléonore453391   
Cadia422    
Musselwhite351305   
Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mining Company LLC (CC&V)332333   
Lihir266    
Telfer152    
Brucejack72    
Red Chris32    
Corporate and Other00   
Gold Sales from Doré Production  8,4908,5347,975
Sales from Concentrate and Other Production  3,7322,9631,765
Total11,81211,91512,22211,4979,740


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Corporate and Other9,8448,369   
Nevada Gold Mines (NGM)7,4017,419   
Cadia6,351    
Peñasquito4,7386,430   
Brucejack4,006    
Lihir3,909    
Ahafo2,8232,619   
Boddington2,3762,264   
Red Chris2,178    
Yanacocha2,1172,225   
Tanami1,8961,585   
Cerro Negro1,6461,659   
Porcupine1,4731,401   
Akyem1,069998   
Musselwhite1,0181,294   
Merian927923   
Éléonore7771,010   
Telfer574    
Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mining Company LLC (CC&V)383286   
Total55,50638,482   


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$121.53 
Market Cap ($ Bil)133.3 
First Trading Date04/06/1983 
Distance from 52W High-7.9% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$107.34$78.79
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA13.2%54.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility50.6%44.2%
Downside Capture154.2630.37
Upside Capture317.80125.27
Correlation (SPY)42.2%24.3%
NEM Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.510.821.710.890.510.57
Up Beta-0.870.051.290.890.480.53
Down Beta-2.37-0.960.59-0.030.280.49
Up Capture445%340%414%244%139%44%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days13243776148401
Down Capture246%117%148%66%35%78%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days7172449103348

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NEM
NEM176.7%44.2%2.43-
Sector ETF (XLB)21.7%20.8%0.8440.8%
Equity (SPY)16.3%19.3%0.6524.1%
Gold (GLD)76.7%25.0%2.2572.9%
Commodities (DBC)9.4%16.6%0.3735.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.5%16.6%0.2117.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-27.3%44.7%-0.5824.8%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NEM
NEM19.3%36.2%0.58-
Sector ETF (XLB)9.9%18.9%0.4140.1%
Equity (SPY)14.1%17.0%0.6623.6%
Gold (GLD)22.1%16.9%1.0666.2%
Commodities (DBC)11.3%18.9%0.4829.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.3%18.8%0.1930.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)13.4%57.9%0.4513.2%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NEM
NEM22.7%35.8%0.68-
Sector ETF (XLB)12.8%20.7%0.5532.8%
Equity (SPY)15.7%17.9%0.7520.0%
Gold (GLD)15.7%15.5%0.8466.1%
Commodities (DBC)8.4%17.6%0.3925.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.2%20.7%0.2723.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.8%66.7%1.0812.3%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity21.6 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 1152026-0.8%
Average Daily Volume12.1 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity1,097.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/2025-6.2%-7.4%-6.1%
7/24/20256.9%1.0%15.1%
2/20/2025-5.7%-12.4%-0.9%
10/23/2024-14.7%-18.7%-25.0%
7/24/2024-4.2%2.9%7.8%
2/22/2024-7.6%-10.6%4.1%
10/26/20232.0%1.4%2.3%
7/20/2023-6.0%-3.8%-14.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive7119
# Negative13911
Median Positive2.9%2.3%10.3%
Median Negative-4.6%-7.4%-6.4%
Max Positive6.9%11.0%15.4%
Max Negative-14.7%-18.7%-25.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202510/23/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/24/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202410/24/202410-Q
06/30/202407/25/202410-Q
03/31/202404/29/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202307/20/202310-Q
03/31/202304/27/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202211/01/202210-Q
06/30/202207/25/202210-Q
03/31/202204/22/202210-Q
12/31/202102/24/202210-K

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Brook, Bruce R DirectSell1203202592.362,080192,1093,021,003Form
2Brook, Bruce R DirectSell1105202580.962,080168,3972,816,517Form
3Palmer, Thomas RonaldCEODirectSell1105202581.345,000406,70022,768,937Form
4Brook, Bruce R DirectSell1003202584.992,080176,7793,133,496Form
5Brook, Bruce R DirectSell904202574.592,077154,9232,905,206Form

NEM Trade Sentinel

Core Investment Debate

Price-Led Free Cash Flow vs. Operational Decay

BULL VIEW

Record free cash flow, fueled by high gold prices, will fund significant shareholder returns (buybacks, dividends) and debt reduction, making operational concerns secondary.

CORE TENSION

Can record gold prices and resulting free cash flow mask deteriorating operational metrics like declining production and rising costs, or will these fundamentals ultimately drive the stock lower?

PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH

The stock's negative reaction to the Q3 2025 earnings and revenue beat, where investors focused on declining production volumes, shows the Bearish operational narrative is currently winning.

BEAR VIEW

Decelerating production volumes and rising All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) indicate a fragile, price-dependent operation. The stock is vulnerable to a commodity price correction or further operational slips.

Potential Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Feb. 19, 2026
Q4 2025 Earnings & 2026 Guidance
Watch: 2026 All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) guidance versus consensus of ~$1,500/oz. Also, 2026 production guidance vs. 2025 levels.
Ongoing (Fed Meetings, CPI)
Gold Price Reaction to Macro Data
Watch: CPI data and Fed commentary on interest rates. Hotter CPI or hawkish Fed rhetoric would strengthen the dollar and raise real yields.
Anytime
Operational Disruption at Peñasquito Mine
Watch: Mexican news reports or union statements indicating renewed labor disputes over profit-sharing or water access.
Q1-Q2 2026
Growth Project Update (e.g., Yanacocha Sulfides)
Watch: Company updates on project timelines and capital expenditure budgets for key growth assets.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-01-28
Stock Hits Multi-Month High
Details: Shares reached their highest point in the trailing six-month period, driven by continued strength in gold prices and bullish sentiment in the commodities sector.
Rose significantly by 3.9%
2025-12-09
Capital Allocation Update
Details: Following strong free cash flow generation, the company likely provided an update on its debt reduction and share repurchase programs, boosting investor confidence.
Surged +5.7%
2025-10-23
Q3 2025 Earnings Release
Details: Despite beating revenue and EPS estimates, the stock fell sharply. Investors focused on a 4% sequential decline in gold production and concerns over future output.
Plummeted -6.2%
2025-09-19
Ahafo North Mine Commissioning
Details: Company announced its new Ahafo North mine in Ghana is online, a key growth project expected to add 275,000-325,000 ounces of annual production, signaling future volume growth.
Rose significantly by 4.3%
2025-08-05
Strong Central Bank Gold Purchases Reported
Details: The World Gold Council report for July likely showed continued strong demand from central banks, reinforcing a key pillar of the bull case for gold prices.
Rose significantly by 2.8%
2025-07-25
Q2 2025 Earnings Release
Details: The company reported its second-quarter results. The negative stock reaction suggests that guidance or underlying metrics may have disappointed investors despite high gold prices.
Fell notably by -3.2%
Risk Management
Position Sizing

1% - 3%

CONSERVATIVE

Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (4.1x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, contested moat, and Low visibility mandate a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.

Diversification Alternatives
AEM
INDUSTRY

Agnico Eagle has a superior cost structure, with Q3 2025 AISC of $1,373/oz significantly below Newmont's $1,566/oz, providing better margin resilience.

Core Thesis: A best-in-class operator with a portfolio of high-quality assets in low-risk jurisdictions, focused on disciplined growth and superior cost control, offering a safer way to get gold exposure.
BTG
INDUSTRY

Unlike Newmont's decelerating production, B2Gold is in a growth phase with its Goose Mine ramping up, offering clearer near-term production growth visibility.

Core Thesis: A mid-tier producer with a strong growth pipeline and a history of operational excellence. Valuation is attractive due to perceived geopolitical risk in Mali, which may be overstated. [12]

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