Newmont (NEM)
Market Price (4/29/2026): $109.8 | Market Cap: $119.1 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Newmont (NEM)
Market Price (4/29/2026): $109.8Market Cap: $119.1 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8%, FCF Yield is 7.7% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 54% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.2 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.4 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 106% Key risksNEM key risks include [1] rising production costs eroding profitability and [2] legal and tax disputes stemming from its extensive global operational footprint. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8%, FCF Yield is 7.7% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 54% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.2 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 106% |
| Key risksNEM key risks include [1] rising production costs eroding profitability and [2] legal and tax disputes stemming from its extensive global operational footprint. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Significant Increase in Gold Prices.
The price of gold, a key macroeconomic driver for Newmont, experienced a substantial surge since December 2025, reaching an all-time high of $5,414.49 per ounce in January 2026. This upward trend is expected to continue, with forecasts ranging from $5,400 to $6,300 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, driven by rising inflation and global geopolitical and economic turmoil. Newmont's stock is highly sensitive to these gold price movements.
2. Strong Financial Performance and Earnings Beats.
Newmont delivered robust financial results, consistently beating analyst expectations. For Q4 2025, reported on February 19, 2026, the company announced adjusted earnings of $2.52 per share, exceeding estimates by $0.71. This was accompanied by approximately $6.8 billion in revenue and a record $2.8 billion in free cash flow for the quarter. Subsequently, in Q1 2026, reported on April 23, 2026, Newmont's EPS of $2.90 surpassed analysts' consensus by 32.42% to 39% (relative to estimates of $2.19 to $2.07), with revenue of $7.31 billion exceeding forecasts by 12%. The company also achieved an all-time record quarterly free cash flow of $3.1 billion.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.3% change in NEM stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 99.65 | 109.90 | 10.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 21,503 | 24,966 | 16.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.4% | 33.9% | 1.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.2 | 14.1 | -7.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,097 | 1,085 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | 10.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | 38.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 13.8% | 63.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.0% change in NEM stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 83.90 | 109.90 | 31.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,584 | 24,966 | 21.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.5% | 33.9% | 11.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.8 | 14.1 | -5.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,110 | 1,085 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | 31.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 34.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 15.8% | 55.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 130.6% change in NEM stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 89.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.66 | 109.90 | 130.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,682 | 24,966 | 33.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.9% | 33.9% | 89.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.1 | 14.1 | -12.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,131 | 1,085 | 4.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 130.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | 130.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.3% | 25.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 21.9% | 45.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 141.3% change in NEM stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 109.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 45.54 | 109.90 | 141.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,915 | 24,966 | 109.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.0 | 4.8 | 56.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 797 | 1,085 | -26.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 141.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | 141.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.5% | 25.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 35.2% | 45.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NEM Return | 7% | -21% | -9% | -8% | 173% | 16% | 127% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -2% | 23% | 19% | 90% | 23% | 346% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 91% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NEM Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 92% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 47% | 58% | 45% | 72% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NEM Max Drawdown | -9% | -37% | -26% | -28% | 0% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -32% | -14% | -16% | -13% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOLD, AEM, FCX, SCCO, KGC. See NEM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NEM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 692 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 469 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 561 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GOLD, AEM, FCX, SCCO, KGC
In The Past
Newmont's stock fell -60.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -60.3% loss requires a 151.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Newmont (NEM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are two brief analogies for Newmont (NEM):
The ExxonMobil of gold mining.
The De Beers of gold production.
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- Gold: A precious metal that is Newmont's primary focus for production and exploration.
- Copper: An industrial metal that Newmont explores for.
- Silver: A precious metal that Newmont explores for.
- Zinc: A base metal that Newmont explores for.
- Lead: A heavy metal that Newmont explores for.
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Newmont Corporation (NEM) primarily sells its products to other companies. Due to the nature of the global commodity markets in which Newmont operates, it sells its gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead products to a diverse range of buyers worldwide. As a producer of raw materials and unrefined metal products (like gold doré and metal concentrates), Newmont typically does not disclose specific individual "major customers" that account for a dominant portion of its revenue. Instead, its customer base consists of various intermediaries and industrial users within the metals supply chain. The major categories of companies that purchase metals from producers like Newmont include:-
Precious Metals Refiners and Bullion Banks: These entities purchase gold doré and silver for refining into high-purity bullion, which is then sold to investors, central banks, jewelers, and industrial users.
- Examples of such institutions include major global banks involved in precious metals trading (e.g., JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), HSBC Holdings plc (LSE: HSBA)), and specialized precious metals refiners (many of which are private, such as Valcambi S.A., Metalor Technologies SA, or PAMP SA).
-
Base Metals Smelters, Refiners, and Industrial Purchasers: For copper, zinc, and lead concentrates, customers are typically smelters and refiners that process the raw materials into refined metals, as well as industrial companies and traders who facilitate their distribution to various manufacturing sectors (e.g., electronics, construction, automotive).
- Examples of companies that operate in these areas and could be purchasers include large diversified mining and trading firms like Glencore plc (LSE: GLEN) or Sumitomo Corporation (TYO: 8053), as well as numerous other global smelting and industrial entities, many of which are private or operate as divisions of larger public companies.
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Natascha Viljoen, President and Chief Executive OfficerNatascha Viljoen became President and Chief Executive Officer of Newmont Corporation in January 2026, making her the first woman to lead the company in its over 100-year history. She joined Newmont in 2023 as Chief Operating Officer, overseeing the company's operations with a focus on integrating acquired assets, optimizing the portfolio, and developing talent across Newmont's global footprint. With over 30 years of international mining experience, Ms. Viljoen has held senior leadership roles across various commodities and continents. Prior to joining Newmont, she served as Chief Executive Officer of Anglo American Platinum (now Valterra), the world's largest primary producer of platinum, and was a member of the Anglo American plc Group Management Committee.
Peter Wexler, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Interim Chief Financial OfficerPeter Wexler was appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Interim Chief Financial Officer of Newmont in July 2025. He joined Newmont in March 2024, leading the company's legal, compliance, and regulatory affairs globally. Mr. Wexler is a seasoned legal and risk management leader with over three decades of international experience, including managing legal, risk, compliance, M&A, antitrust, litigation, and corporate governance affairs in various industrial, technology, energy management, engineering, manufacturing, and construction sectors. Before joining Newmont, he served as Chief Legal Officer at Schneider Electric, a Global 500 business, for 15 years.
Jennifer Cmil, Executive Vice President and Chief People OfficerJennifer Cmil was appointed Executive Vice President, Human Resources in October 2019, after previously serving as Senior Vice President, Human Resources since June 2019. She joined Newmont in 2010 and has held various human resources leadership roles, including Group Executive, Human Resources and Senior Director, Human Resources.
Francois Hardy, Executive Vice President and Chief Technical OfficerFrancois Hardy was promoted to Chief Technical Officer in May 2024, having previously served as Senior Vice President, Exploration since February 2022. Prior to that, he was Regional Senior Vice President, Africa since 2019. Mr. Hardy joined Newmont in 2002 and has held several roles in Global Program Management, Business Excellence, Technical Services, and Senior Site leadership at various Newmont assets in Australia. Before Newmont, he held positions at Avmin Ltd and De Beers Consolidated Mines.
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Key Risks to Newmont Corporation (NEM):
- Commodity Price Volatility: Newmont's profitability and financial performance are highly dependent on the market price of gold, and to a lesser extent, copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Fluctuations in these commodity prices, driven by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical conditions, and investor sentiment, directly impact the company's revenues and profit margins.
- Operational Challenges and Cost Pressures: The company faces significant operational headwinds, including projected decreases in gold production. Newmont anticipates a nearly 10% decrease in gold production for 2026, indicating a "trough" year with direct implications for future revenue generation. Concurrently, Newmont expects a significant increase in all-in sustaining costs (AISC) to approximately $1680 per ounce for 2026, primarily due to higher royalties and taxes, which is expected to compress profit margins. Rising industry-wide inflation affecting energy, labor, and equipment also contributes to increasing operational and capital expenditures.
- Jurisdictional, Political, Regulatory, and Environmental Risks: Operating globally exposes Newmont to a variety of political, economic, and community risks in the countries where it has assets and operations. This includes changes in government regulations, royalties, and taxes, which can adversely impact profitability. Furthermore, the company faces environmental litigation and regulatory scrutiny, such as a class action lawsuit involving community members and past air pollution penalties, which can result in substantial financial exposure, damage to its social license to operate, and reputational harm. A disclosed notice of default related to Newmont's Nevada Gold Mines joint venture also introduces operational uncertainty.
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Newmont Corporation operates in the production and exploration of gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead. The addressable markets for these main products are globally significant. The global gold market was valued at approximately USD 291.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 400 billion by the end of 2030. In terms of volume, the global gold market size stood at 4,890.0 tons in 2025 and is expected to grow to 7,424.4 tons by 2034. For copper, the global market size was estimated at USD 241.88 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 339.95 billion by 2030. Another estimate places the global copper market at USD 291.12 billion in 2025, anticipated to grow to USD 442.04 billion by 2034. The global silver market size was valued at USD 87.12 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 202.07 billion by 2033. Another report indicated the global silver market size was valued at USD 21.21 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 28.43 billion by 2033. The global zinc market size was valued at USD 27.2 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 52.14 billion by 2033. Zinc consumption reached 13.8 million tons in 2025. Regarding lead, the global market size was valued at USD 23.55 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 39.26 billion by 2034. Another source valued the global lead market at USD 29.9 billion in 2025, with an estimated increase to USD 31.2 billion in 2026 and approximately USD 47.1 billion by 2036.AI Analysis | Feedback
Newmont (NEM) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Increased Gold and Copper Production from Strategic Projects: Newmont anticipates growth from key development projects, including the Ahafo North mine in Ghana, the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia, and the Cadia Panel Caves in Australia. The Ahafo North mine achieved commercial production in October 2025 and is expected to contribute approximately 315,000 ounces of gold in 2026, with a ramp-up to full capacity. Production at Cadia is projected to resume growth in 2027 as the mine leverages higher gold grades from its newly established panel cave, leading to sequential production increases through 2030. Overall, Newmont expects attributable production from its Total Tier 1 Portfolio to be around 5.6 million ounces in 2025.
- Favorable Commodity Price Environment: Strong and potentially rising prices for gold, and to a lesser extent copper, are expected to significantly boost Newmont's revenue. Record gold prices in late 2025, reaching $4,216 per ounce in Q4 2025, have already contributed to substantial revenue growth. The company projects gold prices to remain strong, which will directly impact the realized price per ounce sold. Copper exposure is also considered a strategic growth lever in the medium term, offering diversification and additional earnings potential.
- Optimized Portfolio Focusing on Tier 1 Assets: Newmont's strategy to divest non-core and higher-cost assets, coupled with the integration of the Newcrest portfolio, aims to enhance its overall portfolio quality. This portfolio optimization, which included the completion of a divestiture program in April 2025, allows Newmont to concentrate on its "Tier 1" assets—those with longer mine lives and lower operating costs. This focus on high-margin operations is expected to drive more profitable revenue and provide capital for reinvestment into core growth projects.
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Share Repurchases
- Newmont authorized a $1.0 billion share repurchase program in January 2021, following a similar $1.0 billion program in 2020 which retired 22 million shares.
- The company later doubled its share repurchase authorization to $6 billion, including an additional $3 billion program. As of October 23, 2025, $3.3 billion of this $6 billion authorization had been executed.
- Newmont reported common stock repurchases totaling $1.25 billion in 2024.
Share Issuance
- Newmont issued 357,691,627 new shares of common stock on November 7, 2023, as part of the acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited.
- The number of outstanding shares increased by 36.5% from 2023 to 2024, reaching 1.148 billion, primarily due to the Newcrest acquisition.
Outbound Investments
- Newmont completed the acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited in May 2023 for $19.1 billion, which positioned the company as the world's leading gold producer with robust copper output.
- In March 2021, Newmont acquired GT Gold for $325 million.
- Newmont has been actively divesting non-core assets, generating $4.5 billion in after-tax proceeds by February 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Newmont's capital expenditures have increased significantly, from $1.653 billion in 2021 to $3.402 billion in 2024.
- In 2024, sustaining capital was approximately $1.8 billion, and development capital was about $1.3 billion, with a primary focus on projects such as Tanami Expansion 2, Ahafo North, Cadia Block Caves, and the Cerro Negro expansion.
- For 2026, capital expenditures are forecast to be elevated, with approximately $1.95 billion allocated to sustaining capital for tailings infrastructure and key growth projects (especially at Cadia and Boddington), and $1.4 billion for development capital.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Newmont Stock On Fire: Up 15% With 5-Day Winning Streak | 04/03/2026 | |
| How Low Can NEM Really Go In A Market Crash? | 03/20/2026 | |
| Is ... Fall In Newmont (NEM) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 03/14/2026 | |
| What Is Happening With Newmont Stock? | 03/11/2026 | |
| Why Newmont Stock Jumped 180%? | 02/24/2026 | |
| Newmont Stock May Have More Upside | 02/03/2026 | |
| NEM Stock Surges 11% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Scotiabank's $152 Target | 01/29/2026 | |
| How Newmont Stock Gained 170% | 01/01/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Newmont Stock Surged 70%, Here’s Why | 04/24/2026 | |
| Stress Testing NEM: Historical Drawdowns and Macro Risks | 03/20/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: CIEN, STX, BKR | Losers: FICO, NEM, MOS | 03/19/2026 | |
| Time To Buy The Dip In Newmont Stock? | 03/14/2026 | |
| When Missiles Fly, Gold Prices Follow | 03/11/2026 |
Trade Ideas
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03272026 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -0.6% |
| 03272026 | IFF | International Flavors & Fragrances | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.1% |
| 03132026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -4.2% | -4.2% | -9.4% |
| 03062026 | ARIS | Aris Mining | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -16.7% |
| 03062026 | EMN | Eastman Chemical | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.8% | 9.8% | -6.0% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.5% | 30.5% | -5.7% |
| 01312024 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 44.2% | 28.0% | -13.5% |
| 02282023 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.6% | -28.7% | -28.8% |
| 08312022 | NEM | Newmont | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.3% | -0.4% | -7.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 89.2 |
| Rev LTM | 14,549 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,404 |
| FCF LTM | 2,997 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,795 |
| CFO LTM | 5,181 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,354 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 31.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 26.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 44.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 59.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 42.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 49.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 31.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 41.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 30.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 89.2 |
| P/S | 5.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.9 |
| P/EBIT | 13.2 |
| P/E | 27.2 |
| P/CFO | 11.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 35.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 89.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 148.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 27.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 57.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 71.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) | 2,485 | 2,271 | 2,098 | ||
| Peñasquito | 2,322 | 901 | 2,189 | ||
| Ahafo South | 1,923 | ||||
| Cadia | 1,861 | 422 | |||
| Boddington | 1,746 | 1,814 | 1,763 | ||
| Lihir | 1,473 | 266 | |||
| Tanami | 988 | 867 | 878 | ||
| Yanacocha | 841 | 537 | 451 | ||
| Porcupine | 673 | 503 | 504 | ||
| Merian | 660 | 625 | 723 | ||
| Brucejack | 610 | 72 | |||
| Éléonore | 583 | 453 | 391 | ||
| Cerro Negro | 566 | 510 | 508 | ||
| Musselwhite | 516 | 351 | 305 | ||
| Akyem | 495 | 574 | 749 | ||
| Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mining Company LLC (CC&V) | 347 | 332 | 333 | ||
| Red Chris | 325 | 32 | |||
| Telfer | 268 | 152 | |||
| Ahafo North | 0 | ||||
| Corporate and Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Ahafo | 1,130 | 1,023 | |||
| Gold Sales from Doré Production | 8,490 | 8,534 | |||
| Sales from Concentrate and Other Production | 3,732 | 2,963 | |||
| Total | 18,682 | 11,812 | 11,915 | 12,222 | 11,497 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate and Other | 9,717 | 9,844 | 8,369 | ||
| Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) | 7,430 | 7,401 | 7,419 | ||
| Cadia | 6,208 | 6,351 | |||
| Lihir | 5,625 | 3,909 | |||
| Peñasquito | 4,879 | 4,738 | 6,430 | ||
| Ahafo South | 2,674 | ||||
| Brucejack | 2,660 | 4,006 | |||
| Red Chris | 2,580 | 2,178 | |||
| Boddington | 2,420 | 2,376 | 2,264 | ||
| Tanami | 2,236 | 1,896 | 1,585 | ||
| Yanacocha | 1,932 | 2,117 | 2,225 | ||
| Cerro Negro | 1,787 | 1,646 | 1,659 | ||
| Porcupine | 1,172 | 1,473 | 1,401 | ||
| Musselwhite | 1,102 | 1,018 | 1,294 | ||
| Merian | 943 | 927 | 923 | ||
| Éléonore | 855 | 777 | 1,010 | ||
| Akyem | 817 | 1,069 | 998 | ||
| Ahafo North | 751 | ||||
| Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mining Company LLC (CC&V) | 561 | 383 | 286 | ||
| Telfer | 0 | 574 | |||
| Ahafo | 2,823 | 2,619 | |||
| Total | 56,349 | 55,506 | 38,482 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $109.90 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 119.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/06/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $114.36 | $94.65 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -3.9% | 16.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 59.3% | 45.5% |
| Downside Capture | 1.63 | 0.48 |
| Upside Capture | 159.14 | 143.44 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 43.7% | 19.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.93 | 2.06 | 1.73 | 1.39 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| Up Beta | 1.65 | 1.78 | 0.93 | 1.08 | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| Down Beta | 0.24 | 1.39 | 0.89 | 0.61 | 0.35 | 0.57 |
| Up Capture | 147% | 212% | 310% | 270% | 148% | 61% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 39 | 77 | 151 | 407 |
| Down Capture | 280% | 224% | 175% | 142% | 68% | 86% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 24 | 49 | 101 | 341 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 107.0% | 45.7% | 1.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 27.0% | 16.4% | 1.28 | 43.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.5% | 12.5% | 1.92 | 19.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 38.6% | 27.2% | 1.18 | 74.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.9% | 18.0% | 1.95 | 15.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.4% | 13.4% | 0.75 | 16.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.0% | 42.1% | -0.39 | 21.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 13.8% | 37.3% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.5% | 18.9% | 0.24 | 41.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 24.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.8% | 0.92 | 66.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.8% | 19.1% | 0.63 | 26.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 29.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.3% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 13.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 16.3% | 35.8% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.3% | 20.6% | 0.45 | 34.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 21.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 66.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.9% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 23.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 24.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 12.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/19/2026 | -2.6% | 1.7% | -23.4% |
| 10/23/2025 | -6.2% | -7.4% | -6.1% |
| 7/24/2025 | 6.9% | 1.0% | 15.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -5.7% | -12.4% | -0.9% |
| 10/23/2024 | -14.7% | -18.7% | -25.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -4.2% | 2.9% | 7.8% |
| 2/22/2024 | -7.6% | -10.6% | 4.1% |
| 10/26/2023 | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 14 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 1.7% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -7.4% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.9% | 11.0% | 15.4% |
| Max Negative | -14.7% | -18.7% | -25.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/25/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Attributable Gold Production | 5.26 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.26 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Sustaining Capital | 1.95 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.95 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Development Capital | 1.40 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.40 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Gold By-Product AISC | 1,680 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1,680 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Copper Production | 0.10 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.10 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Silver Production | 32.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 32.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Lead Production | 90,000 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 90,000 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Zinc Production | 0.22 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.22 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Tax Rate | 33.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 33.0% for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Attributable Gold Production | 5.26 Mil | -10.8% | Lower New | Actual: 5.90 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Gold By-Product AISC | 1,680 | 3.1% | Higher New | Actual: 1,630 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Sustaining Capital | 1.95 Bil | 13.0% | Higher New | Actual: 1.73 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Development Capital | 1.40 Bil | 9.4% | Higher New | Actual: 1.28 Bil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toth, Peter | EVP, Chief Sustain & Dev Off | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 113.09 | 3,000 | 339,270 | 5,916,303 | Form |
| 2 | Toth, Peter | EVP, Chief Sustain & Dev Off | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 108.00 | 3,000 | 324,000 | 5,974,020 | Form |
| 3 | Fry, David James | Group Head Projects & Studies | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 111.45 | 18,394 | 2,050,037 | 1,911,057 | Form |
| 4 | Rodgers, Mark C | MD, Africa-Asia Pacific | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 120.78 | 1,361 | 164,382 | 3,110,810 | Form |
| 5 | Thornton, David John | MD, Americas | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 120.78 | 8,060 | 973,487 | 3,292,946 | Form |
NEM Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment thesis for Newmont is caught in a fundamental conflict. The stock offers pure-play leverage to a powerful bullish commodity cycle (a strong tailwind), but its own operational execution is weakening with declining production and rising costs (a strong headwind). The resulting risk/reward is symmetric, with a strong macro story offset by a weak company story, justifying a neutral 'Market Weight' rating. The stock is a hold, as the downside from operational misses is balanced by the potential upside from a commodity price spike.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type C: 'Cyclical Opportunity' (Commodity Cyclical)Newmont's revenue and profitability are directly tied to the volatile, unpredictable spot prices of gold and copper. The company is a 'price taker' with zero pricing power, making its investment case entirely dependent on the supply/demand dynamics and timing of the commodity cycle.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is Newmont's leveraged exposure to bullish cycles in both gold and copper following the Newcrest acquisition. The company's massive scale and portfolio of low-cost 'Tier 1' assets provide a platform to generate significant free cash flow if elevated prices for both metals are sustained or increase further.
- Strong Gold Demand: Driven by central bank buying for reserve diversification and safe-haven demand amidst geopolitical uncertainty.
- Structural Copper Deficit: Demand is accelerating from the energy transition (EVs, renewables) and AI data centers, while supply is constrained.
- Synergy Realization: The market is waiting for proof of the promised $500 million in annual synergies from the Newcrest integration, which would further enhance cash flow.
- Shareholder Returns: The company has an authorized $6B share repurchase program and a stated $1.1B annual dividend, providing a direct mechanism to return excess cash from high commodity prices.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is poor operational guidance, which is being masked by high commodity prices. The company has guided for lower gold production and significantly higher costs in 2026, indicating that operational health is weakening. The stock's negative reaction to a recent earnings beat highlights that the market is prioritizing this operational decline over the price-driven revenue growth.
- Production Guidance: Guided 2026 gold production of ~5.3M oz, a decline from 5.9M oz in 2025.
- Cost Guidance: Guided 2026 All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of ~$1,680/oz, a significant increase from ~$1,358/oz in 2025.
- Market Reaction: The stock fell after its Q4 2025 earnings release, despite beating estimates, as the market focused on weak forward guidance.
- Core Health Verdict: Internal analysis shows core health is 'WEAKENING', as a 23% decline in Q4 2025 production volume was masked by a 59% surge in realized gold prices.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Gold All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) per ounce | Trend vs. ~$1,680/oz FY26 guidance | This is the primary friction. Any deviation above the already-high guidance will confirm the bear thesis on cost control and severely pressure margins. |
| Attributable Gold Production (ounces) | Quarterly run-rate vs. ~5.3M oz FY26 guidance | Confirms the operational decline. A miss on the volume target would exacerbate the impact of high costs. |
| Realized Gold/Copper Prices | Spot Price vs. Analyst Models | This is the sole driver of the bull thesis. These prices must remain elevated to mask the underlying operational weakness. |
Operational Decay vs. Commodity Super-Cycle
BULL VIEW
Elevated gold and copper prices, driven by structural deficits and safe-haven demand, will generate massive free cash flow, overwhelming the guided operational weakness in 2026.
CORE TENSION
Can a powerful commodity upcycle (Gold/Copper prices) mask weakening operational health (declining production and rising costs), or will the operational issues destroy shareholder value when prices revert?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The market is voting with the bears; the stock fell after a Q4 2025 earnings beat because weak forward guidance for production (down to ~5.3M oz) and costs (up to ~$1,680/oz) spooked investors.
BEAR VIEW
The guided 2026 production decline (~5.3M oz) and soaring AISC (~$1,680/oz) reveal a core operational sickness that high commodity prices cannot cure, creating a classic value trap.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Quarterly AISC vs. full-year guidance of ~$1,680/oz. Must show a path to meeting this already-high number after Q1 operational issues. |
Late October 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Free Cash Flow generation. With a full quarter of potentially high metal prices, the company must prove it can convert revenue to cash despite high costs. |
Next 6 Months | Ghana & Peru Mining Royalty Legislation Watch: Final royalty rate changes. Ghana is proposing a hike to a 9-12% range. Peru's election could bring in a resource nationalist government. |
Anytime | Geopolitical De-escalation Watch: Lasting ceasefire or peace treaty headlines involving major global powers, which would reduce safe-haven demand for gold. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Oct 24, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported Q3 production of 1.4M oz and AISC of $1,303/oz. The stock plummeted -11.56% in the following session as the results highlighted ongoing operational pressures. | -11.56% $88.47 -> $78.24 |
Feb 19, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & Outlook Details: Despite beating EPS estimates with $2.52, the stock fell notably by 2.61%. The market focused on weak 2026 guidance (lower production, higher costs) and an 11.9% YoY decline in reserves. | -2.61% $125.14 -> $121.88 |
Mar 3, 2026 | Legal & Environmental Risk Details: News of a class-action lawsuit from 2,000 community members regarding alleged contamination from the Cadia mine surfaced, contributing to a stock crash of -7.75%. | -7.75% $128.47 -> $118.52 |
Mar 16, 2026 | Insider Selling Details: Executive David James Fry sold 18,394 shares, part of a cluster of insider sales exceeding $2 million over 90 days. The market reaction was flat (0.56%) on the specific disclosure. | 0.56% $109.58 -> $110.19 |
Apr 10, 2026 | Formal Guidance Update Details: Company formally updated its outlook, confirming lower production and higher costs for 2026. Despite the negative fundamental news, the stock saw a modest 1.59% gain as this was likely priced in. | 1.59% $119.01 -> $120.90 |
Apr 15, 2026 | Operational Disruption Details: Operations were temporarily suspended at the key Cadia mine in Australia following a seismic event. The stock plummeted -5.25% on the news, highlighting operational fragility. | -5.25% $119.30 -> $113.04 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.85x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, Contested moat, Value Trap valuation, and Low Visibility make this a high-risk proposition, mandating a Conservative sizing.
Diversification Alternatives
BTG
INDUSTRYWhile facing its own operational ramp-up challenges, BTG offers a clearer path to production growth in 2027 and trades at a valuation discount to peers, avoiding NEM's specific declining production profile.
EGO
INDUSTRYOffers a superior growth profile. The Skouries project is set to drive ~40% production growth by 2027, a stark contrast to NEM's guided decline. It also adds significant copper exposure.
Following its transformative acquisition of Newcrest, Newmont is the world's largest gold producer, now focused on integrating a massive portfolio of Tier 1 assets to generate scale-driven cash flow, while also increasing its exposure to copper as a key metal for the energy transition.
Filter all news through the lens of portfolio optimization and operational execution at its core 'Tier 1' assets, which now form the world's largest gold production system.
Achieving or exceeding the $500 million annual synergy target from the Newcrest acquisition; successful divestment of non-core assets at favorable prices; consistent operational performance (meeting production/cost guidance) at key mines like Boddington, Cadia, and the Nevada Gold Mines JV.
Significant operational disruptions or rising costs (AISC) at a Tier 1 asset; major geopolitical instability in key jurisdictions (e.g., Papua New Guinea, Argentina, Ghana); a sustained downturn in gold or copper prices that pressures margins and free cash flow.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in production from smaller, non-core mines; short-term gold price volatility not driven by fundamental supply/demand shifts; early-stage exploration results that are not part of a defined, large-scale project.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful integration of the Newcrest portfolio and the execution of its portfolio optimization plan, which involves divesting non-core assets. The market is waiting for proof that Newmont can deliver the promised $500 million in annual synergies and efficiently manage its newly expanded global footprint to drive free cash flow growth.
Gold Mining
$8.8B TTM (74.3% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Gold in the form of doré bars and concentrate, produced from a portfolio of managed and joint-venture mines.
Who Pays & How
Global refineries and commodity traders purchase Newmont's gold output for further processing and sale into the global bullion market. They pay based on prevailing market prices set on exchanges like the LBMA and COMEX.
Competition
Copper, Silver, and Other Metals
$3.0B TTM (25.7% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Copper, silver, lead, and zinc, typically sold as concentrate to smelters. This segment has grown significantly with the acquisition of Newcrest's copper-gold assets like Cadia.
Who Pays & How
Industrial users and commodity traders purchase these metals for use in construction, electronics, and manufacturing. Payment is based on global market prices for each specific commodity.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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