Newmont (NEM)
Market Price (3/18/2026): $107.6 | Market Cap: $117.4 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Newmont (NEM)
Market Price (3/18/2026): $107.6Market Cap: $117.4 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 6.0% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 137% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 49% | Key risksNEM key risks include [1] rising production costs eroding profitability and [2] legal and tax disputes stemming from its extensive global operational footprint. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.3 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 6.0% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 49% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 137% |
| Key risksNEM key risks include [1] rising production costs eroding profitability and [2] legal and tax disputes stemming from its extensive global operational footprint. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Newmont (NEM) stock has gained about 25% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Financial Performance: Newmont reported robust Q4 2025 results on February 19, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $2.52, significantly surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.81 by $0.71. Quarterly revenue also exceeded expectations, rising 20.6% year-over-year to $6.82 billion against an estimated $6.18 billion. The company achieved a record $7.3 billion in free cash flow for 2025, marking a 150% increase from the previous year.
2. Enhanced Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns: Demonstrating a strong financial position, Newmont announced a commitment to a $6 billion share repurchase program and a $1.1 billion annual dividend payout, including a $0.26 per share quarterly dividend for Q4 2025. This strategy, coupled with a $3.4 billion reduction in debt and ending 2025 in a net cash position of $2.1 billion, signaled confidence in its future and a focus on returning value to shareholders.
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1. Strong Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Financial Performance: Newmont reported robust Q4 2025 results on February 19, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $2.52, significantly surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.81 by $0.71. Quarterly revenue also exceeded expectations, rising 20.6% year-over-year to $6.82 billion against an estimated $6.18 billion. The company achieved a record $7.3 billion in free cash flow for 2025, marking a 150% increase from the previous year.
2. Enhanced Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns: Demonstrating a strong financial position, Newmont announced a commitment to a $6 billion share repurchase program and a $1.1 billion annual dividend payout, including a $0.26 per share quarterly dividend for Q4 2025. This strategy, coupled with a $3.4 billion reduction in debt and ending 2025 in a net cash position of $2.1 billion, signaled confidence in its future and a focus on returning value to shareholders.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.6% change in NEM stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 90.55 | 111.04 | 22.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 21,503 | 22,669 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.4% | 31.3% | -6.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.8 | 17.1 | 23.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,097 | 1,091 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.6% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | 22.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.8% | 32.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 10.8% | 61.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.5% change in NEM stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 73.79 | 111.04 | 50.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,584 | 22,669 | 10.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.5% | 31.3% | 2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.0 | 17.1 | 31.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,110 | 1,091 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | 50.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 29.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 7.8% | 51.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 164.1% change in NEM stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 74.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 42.04 | 111.04 | 164.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,682 | 22,669 | 21.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.9% | 31.3% | 74.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.2 | 17.1 | 20.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,131 | 1,091 | 3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 164.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | 164.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.9% | 22.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 13.2% | 43.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 176.7% change in NEM stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 99.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.13 | 111.04 | 176.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,915 | 22,669 | 90.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.7 | 5.3 | 99.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 797 | 1,091 | -26.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 176.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | 176.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 23.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 27.7% | 41.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NEM Return | 7% | -21% | -9% | -8% | 173% | 11% | 116% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -2% | 23% | 19% | 90% | 22% | 342% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -2% | 78% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NEM Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 92% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 47% | 58% | 45% | 72% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NEM Max Drawdown | -9% | -37% | -26% | -28% | 0% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -32% | -14% | -16% | -13% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOLD, AEM, FCX, SCCO, KGC. See NEM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/17/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NEM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 692 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 469 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 561 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GOLD, AEM, FCX, SCCO, KGC
In The Past
Newmont's stock fell -60.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -60.3% loss requires a 151.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Newmont (NEM)
Newmont Corporation engages in the production and exploration of gold. It also explores for copper, silver, zinc, and lead. The company has operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and Ghana. As of December 31, 2021, it had proven and probable gold reserves of 92.8 million ounces and land position of 62,800 square kilometers. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
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Here are two brief analogies for Newmont (NEM):
The ExxonMobil of gold mining.
The De Beers of gold production.
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- Gold: A precious metal that is Newmont's primary focus for production and exploration.
- Copper: An industrial metal that Newmont explores for.
- Silver: A precious metal that Newmont explores for.
- Zinc: A base metal that Newmont explores for.
- Lead: A heavy metal that Newmont explores for.
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Newmont Corporation (NEM) primarily sells its products to other companies. Due to the nature of the global commodity markets in which Newmont operates, it sells its gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead products to a diverse range of buyers worldwide. As a producer of raw materials and unrefined metal products (like gold doré and metal concentrates), Newmont typically does not disclose specific individual "major customers" that account for a dominant portion of its revenue. Instead, its customer base consists of various intermediaries and industrial users within the metals supply chain. The major categories of companies that purchase metals from producers like Newmont include:-
Precious Metals Refiners and Bullion Banks: These entities purchase gold doré and silver for refining into high-purity bullion, which is then sold to investors, central banks, jewelers, and industrial users.
- Examples of such institutions include major global banks involved in precious metals trading (e.g., JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), HSBC Holdings plc (LSE: HSBA)), and specialized precious metals refiners (many of which are private, such as Valcambi S.A., Metalor Technologies SA, or PAMP SA).
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Base Metals Smelters, Refiners, and Industrial Purchasers: For copper, zinc, and lead concentrates, customers are typically smelters and refiners that process the raw materials into refined metals, as well as industrial companies and traders who facilitate their distribution to various manufacturing sectors (e.g., electronics, construction, automotive).
- Examples of companies that operate in these areas and could be purchasers include large diversified mining and trading firms like Glencore plc (LSE: GLEN) or Sumitomo Corporation (TYO: 8053), as well as numerous other global smelting and industrial entities, many of which are private or operate as divisions of larger public companies.
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Natascha Viljoen, President and Chief Executive OfficerNatascha Viljoen became President and Chief Executive Officer of Newmont Corporation in January 2026, making her the first woman to lead the company in its over 100-year history. She joined Newmont in 2023 as Chief Operating Officer, overseeing the company's operations with a focus on integrating acquired assets, optimizing the portfolio, and developing talent across Newmont's global footprint. With over 30 years of international mining experience, Ms. Viljoen has held senior leadership roles across various commodities and continents. Prior to joining Newmont, she served as Chief Executive Officer of Anglo American Platinum (now Valterra), the world's largest primary producer of platinum, and was a member of the Anglo American plc Group Management Committee.
Peter Wexler, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Interim Chief Financial OfficerPeter Wexler was appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Interim Chief Financial Officer of Newmont in July 2025. He joined Newmont in March 2024, leading the company's legal, compliance, and regulatory affairs globally. Mr. Wexler is a seasoned legal and risk management leader with over three decades of international experience, including managing legal, risk, compliance, M&A, antitrust, litigation, and corporate governance affairs in various industrial, technology, energy management, engineering, manufacturing, and construction sectors. Before joining Newmont, he served as Chief Legal Officer at Schneider Electric, a Global 500 business, for 15 years.
Jennifer Cmil, Executive Vice President and Chief People OfficerJennifer Cmil was appointed Executive Vice President, Human Resources in October 2019, after previously serving as Senior Vice President, Human Resources since June 2019. She joined Newmont in 2010 and has held various human resources leadership roles, including Group Executive, Human Resources and Senior Director, Human Resources.
Francois Hardy, Executive Vice President and Chief Technical OfficerFrancois Hardy was promoted to Chief Technical Officer in May 2024, having previously served as Senior Vice President, Exploration since February 2022. Prior to that, he was Regional Senior Vice President, Africa since 2019. Mr. Hardy joined Newmont in 2002 and has held several roles in Global Program Management, Business Excellence, Technical Services, and Senior Site leadership at various Newmont assets in Australia. Before Newmont, he held positions at Avmin Ltd and De Beers Consolidated Mines.
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Key Risks to Newmont Corporation (NEM):
- Commodity Price Volatility: Newmont's profitability and financial performance are highly dependent on the market price of gold, and to a lesser extent, copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Fluctuations in these commodity prices, driven by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical conditions, and investor sentiment, directly impact the company's revenues and profit margins.
- Operational Challenges and Cost Pressures: The company faces significant operational headwinds, including projected decreases in gold production. Newmont anticipates a nearly 10% decrease in gold production for 2026, indicating a "trough" year with direct implications for future revenue generation. Concurrently, Newmont expects a significant increase in all-in sustaining costs (AISC) to approximately $1680 per ounce for 2026, primarily due to higher royalties and taxes, which is expected to compress profit margins. Rising industry-wide inflation affecting energy, labor, and equipment also contributes to increasing operational and capital expenditures.
- Jurisdictional, Political, Regulatory, and Environmental Risks: Operating globally exposes Newmont to a variety of political, economic, and community risks in the countries where it has assets and operations. This includes changes in government regulations, royalties, and taxes, which can adversely impact profitability. Furthermore, the company faces environmental litigation and regulatory scrutiny, such as a class action lawsuit involving community members and past air pollution penalties, which can result in substantial financial exposure, damage to its social license to operate, and reputational harm. A disclosed notice of default related to Newmont's Nevada Gold Mines joint venture also introduces operational uncertainty.
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Newmont Corporation operates in the production and exploration of gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead. The addressable markets for these main products are globally significant. The global gold market was valued at approximately USD 291.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 400 billion by the end of 2030. In terms of volume, the global gold market size stood at 4,890.0 tons in 2025 and is expected to grow to 7,424.4 tons by 2034. For copper, the global market size was estimated at USD 241.88 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 339.95 billion by 2030. Another estimate places the global copper market at USD 291.12 billion in 2025, anticipated to grow to USD 442.04 billion by 2034. The global silver market size was valued at USD 87.12 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 202.07 billion by 2033. Another report indicated the global silver market size was valued at USD 21.21 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 28.43 billion by 2033. The global zinc market size was valued at USD 27.2 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 52.14 billion by 2033. Zinc consumption reached 13.8 million tons in 2025. Regarding lead, the global market size was valued at USD 23.55 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 39.26 billion by 2034. Another source valued the global lead market at USD 29.9 billion in 2025, with an estimated increase to USD 31.2 billion in 2026 and approximately USD 47.1 billion by 2036.AI Analysis | Feedback
Newmont (NEM) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Increased Gold and Copper Production from Strategic Projects: Newmont anticipates growth from key development projects, including the Ahafo North mine in Ghana, the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia, and the Cadia Panel Caves in Australia. The Ahafo North mine achieved commercial production in October 2025 and is expected to contribute approximately 315,000 ounces of gold in 2026, with a ramp-up to full capacity. Production at Cadia is projected to resume growth in 2027 as the mine leverages higher gold grades from its newly established panel cave, leading to sequential production increases through 2030. Overall, Newmont expects attributable production from its Total Tier 1 Portfolio to be around 5.6 million ounces in 2025.
- Favorable Commodity Price Environment: Strong and potentially rising prices for gold, and to a lesser extent copper, are expected to significantly boost Newmont's revenue. Record gold prices in late 2025, reaching $4,216 per ounce in Q4 2025, have already contributed to substantial revenue growth. The company projects gold prices to remain strong, which will directly impact the realized price per ounce sold. Copper exposure is also considered a strategic growth lever in the medium term, offering diversification and additional earnings potential.
- Optimized Portfolio Focusing on Tier 1 Assets: Newmont's strategy to divest non-core and higher-cost assets, coupled with the integration of the Newcrest portfolio, aims to enhance its overall portfolio quality. This portfolio optimization, which included the completion of a divestiture program in April 2025, allows Newmont to concentrate on its "Tier 1" assets—those with longer mine lives and lower operating costs. This focus on high-margin operations is expected to drive more profitable revenue and provide capital for reinvestment into core growth projects.
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Share Repurchases
- Newmont authorized a $1.0 billion share repurchase program in January 2021, following a similar $1.0 billion program in 2020 which retired 22 million shares.
- The company later doubled its share repurchase authorization to $6 billion, including an additional $3 billion program. As of October 23, 2025, $3.3 billion of this $6 billion authorization had been executed.
- Newmont reported common stock repurchases totaling $1.25 billion in 2024.
Share Issuance
- Newmont issued 357,691,627 new shares of common stock on November 7, 2023, as part of the acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited.
- The number of outstanding shares increased by 36.5% from 2023 to 2024, reaching 1.148 billion, primarily due to the Newcrest acquisition.
Outbound Investments
- Newmont completed the acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited in May 2023 for $19.1 billion, which positioned the company as the world's leading gold producer with robust copper output.
- In March 2021, Newmont acquired GT Gold for $325 million.
- Newmont has been actively divesting non-core assets, generating $4.5 billion in after-tax proceeds by February 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Newmont's capital expenditures have increased significantly, from $1.653 billion in 2021 to $3.402 billion in 2024.
- In 2024, sustaining capital was approximately $1.8 billion, and development capital was about $1.3 billion, with a primary focus on projects such as Tanami Expansion 2, Ahafo North, Cadia Block Caves, and the Cerro Negro expansion.
- For 2026, capital expenditures are forecast to be elevated, with approximately $1.95 billion allocated to sustaining capital for tailings infrastructure and key growth projects (especially at Cadia and Boddington), and $1.4 billion for development capital.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is ... Fall In Newmont (NEM) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 03/14/2026 | |
| What Is Happening With Newmont Stock? | 03/11/2026 | |
| Why Newmont Stock Jumped 180%? | 02/24/2026 | |
| Newmont Stock May Have More Upside | 02/03/2026 | |
| NEM Stock Surges 11% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Scotiabank's $152 Target | 01/29/2026 | |
| How Newmont Stock Gained 170% | 01/01/2026 | |
| Newmont Earnings Notes | 12/26/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Time To Buy The Dip In Newmont Stock? | 03/14/2026 | |
| When Missiles Fly, Gold Prices Follow | 03/11/2026 | |
| How Newmont Stock Gained 180% | 03/11/2026 | |
| Is Newmont Stock Poised for a Rally? | 03/07/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: WDAY, BBY, TGT | Losers: SNDK, MU, NEM | 03/03/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to NEM.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01312026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 01302026 | B | Barrick Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 11.7% | -4.0% |
| 12312025 | AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Resources | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -18.6% | -18.6% | -18.6% |
| 12262025 | EMN | Eastman Chemical | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.9% | 18.9% | 0.0% |
| 12122025 | AMCR | Amcor | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 19.2% | 19.2% | -0.5% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 56.4% | 56.4% | -5.7% |
| 01312024 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 44.2% | 28.0% | -13.5% |
| 02282023 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.6% | -28.7% | -28.8% |
| 08312022 | NEM | Newmont | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.3% | -0.4% | -7.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.56 |
| Mkt Cap | 94.2 |
| Rev LTM | 14,549 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,404 |
| FCF LTM | 2,997 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,795 |
| CFO LTM | 5,181 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,354 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 26.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 40.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 47.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 40.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 94.2 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 14.0 |
| P/E | 29.0 |
| P/CFO | 13.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 24.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 39.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 93.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 168.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 25.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 37.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 77.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 103.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) | 2,485 | 2,271 | 2,098 | ||
| Peñasquito | 2,322 | 901 | 2,189 | ||
| Ahafo South | 1,923 | ||||
| Cadia | 1,861 | 422 | |||
| Boddington | 1,746 | 1,814 | 1,763 | ||
| Lihir | 1,473 | 266 | |||
| Tanami | 988 | 867 | 878 | ||
| Yanacocha | 841 | 537 | 451 | ||
| Porcupine | 673 | 503 | 504 | ||
| Merian | 660 | 625 | 723 | ||
| Brucejack | 610 | 72 | |||
| Éléonore | 583 | 453 | 391 | ||
| Cerro Negro | 566 | 510 | 508 | ||
| Musselwhite | 516 | 351 | 305 | ||
| Akyem | 495 | 574 | 749 | ||
| Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mining Company LLC (CC&V) | 347 | 332 | 333 | ||
| Red Chris | 325 | 32 | |||
| Telfer | 268 | 152 | |||
| Ahafo North | 0 | ||||
| Corporate and Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Ahafo | 1,130 | 1,023 | |||
| Gold Sales from Doré Production | 8,490 | 8,534 | |||
| Sales from Concentrate and Other Production | 3,732 | 2,963 | |||
| Total | 18,682 | 11,812 | 11,915 | 12,222 | 11,497 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate and Other | 9,717 | 9,844 | 8,369 | ||
| Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) | 7,430 | 7,401 | 7,419 | ||
| Cadia | 6,208 | 6,351 | |||
| Lihir | 5,625 | 3,909 | |||
| Peñasquito | 4,879 | 4,738 | 6,430 | ||
| Ahafo South | 2,674 | ||||
| Brucejack | 2,660 | 4,006 | |||
| Red Chris | 2,580 | 2,178 | |||
| Boddington | 2,420 | 2,376 | 2,264 | ||
| Tanami | 2,236 | 1,896 | 1,585 | ||
| Yanacocha | 1,932 | 2,117 | 2,225 | ||
| Cerro Negro | 1,787 | 1,646 | 1,659 | ||
| Porcupine | 1,172 | 1,473 | 1,401 | ||
| Musselwhite | 1,102 | 1,018 | 1,294 | ||
| Merian | 943 | 927 | 923 | ||
| Éléonore | 855 | 777 | 1,010 | ||
| Akyem | 817 | 1,069 | 998 | ||
| Ahafo North | 751 | ||||
| Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mining Company LLC (CC&V) | 561 | 383 | 286 | ||
| Telfer | 0 | 574 | |||
| Ahafo | 2,823 | 2,619 | |||
| Total | 56,349 | 55,506 | 38,482 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $111.04 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 121.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/06/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -15.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $118.19 | $86.88 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -6.1% | 27.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 51.9% | 44.9% |
| Downside Capture | 165.79 | 38.06 |
| Upside Capture | 254.79 | 120.62 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 33.9% | 23.0% |
NEM Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.16 | 1.39 | 1.30 | 1.12 | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| Up Beta | 1.81 | 0.88 | 1.13 | 1.04 | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| Down Beta | 2.10 | 0.45 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 0.32 | 0.55 |
| Up Capture | 254% | 365% | 328% | 283% | 142% | 52% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 27 | 38 | 76 | 152 | 408 |
| Down Capture | 209% | 81% | 54% | 86% | 15% | 70% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 14 | 23 | 48 | 99 | 341 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 144.1% | 44.8% | 2.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 17.0% | 20.6% | 0.66 | 42.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.3% | 18.8% | 0.85 | 22.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 68.2% | 26.2% | 1.97 | 74.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.1% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 34.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.6% | 16.1% | 0.27 | 20.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.5% | 44.3% | -0.12 | 21.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 17.3% | 36.6% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.9% | 18.8% | 0.26 | 40.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.0% | 0.60 | 23.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.4% | 17.2% | 1.11 | 66.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 29.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 29.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.1% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 13.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 18.5% | 35.7% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.8% | 20.6% | 0.47 | 33.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.8% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 20.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.76 | 66.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 25.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 24.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.3% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 12.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/19/2026 | -2.6% | 1.9% | |
| 10/23/2025 | -6.2% | -7.4% | -6.1% |
| 7/24/2025 | 6.9% | 1.0% | 15.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -5.7% | -12.4% | -0.9% |
| 10/23/2024 | -14.7% | -18.7% | -25.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -4.2% | 2.9% | 7.8% |
| 2/22/2024 | -7.6% | -10.6% | 4.1% |
| 10/26/2023 | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 14 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 1.9% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -7.4% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.9% | 11.0% | 15.4% |
| Max Negative | -14.7% | -18.7% | -25.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/22/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brook, Bruce R | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 92.36 | 2,080 | 192,109 | 3,021,003 | Form | |
| 2 | Brook, Bruce R | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 80.96 | 2,080 | 168,397 | 2,816,517 | Form | |
| 3 | Palmer, Thomas Ronald | CEO | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 81.34 | 5,000 | 406,700 | 22,768,937 | Form |
| 4 | Brook, Bruce R | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 84.99 | 2,080 | 176,779 | 3,133,496 | Form | |
| 5 | Brook, Bruce R | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 74.59 | 2,077 | 154,923 | 2,905,206 | Form |
NEM Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a highly attractive probability-adjusted skew of 2.78x. The primary driver is the 'Rising Tide' bull thesis (Regime B), where a strong secular tailwind for gold and copper provides a robust backdrop that can offset a merely 'Contested' moat. The upside case offers significant return, while the downside is cushioned by the market's tendency to apply a premium multiple at a cyclical trough, creating a favorable asymmetric risk/reward profile.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityNewmont's revenue and profitability are directly dictated by the global spot market prices for gold and copper. The business is a price-taker, making its financial performance inherently tied to the supply and demand cycles of these commodities.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is the significant, durable spread between historically high realized gold prices (driven by geopolitical risk and strong central bank buying) and Newmont's All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC). This dynamic is generating record free cash flow, enabling aggressive debt reduction and share buybacks. The company's large, geographically diverse portfolio of long-life, Tier 1 assets provides a stable production base to capitalize on these elevated prices.
Mechanism:
As a commodity producer with relatively fixed costs, higher realized gold prices flow directly to the revenue line with minimal incremental expense. This creates powerful operating leverage, leading to outsized margin expansion and free cash flow conversion, which is then used to enhance shareholder value through buybacks and dividends.
Supporting Evidence:
- Generated a record $1.6 billion in free cash flow in Q3 2025, the fourth consecutive quarter above $1 billion.
- Spot Gold prices are near historic highs (~$5,000-$5,400/oz) with a bullish market balance outlook.
- Strong gold demand is driven by secular trends including central bank buying (~800 tonnes expected in 2026) and investor demand for safe-haven assets.
- The project pipeline, including Ahafo North and Tanami Expansion 2, provides a clear pathway to sustain production levels.
PRIMARY RISK
The single largest risk is a sharp downturn in the price of gold, which would rapidly compress margins and invalidate the core long thesis. This could be triggered by a shift in central bank policy towards a 'higher for longer' interest rate stance, leading to rising real yields and a stronger US dollar, both of which are significant structural headwinds for gold prices.
Mechanism:
As a price-taker, a fall in the spot price of gold directly reduces Newmont's revenue and profitability. With All-in Sustaining Costs around $1,566/oz, a significant price drop would quickly erode the record margins currently being enjoyed, leading to a sharp decline in earnings and free cash flow.
Supporting Evidence:
- The primary bear case is explicitly identified as a 'Commodity Price Crash'.
- The Federal Reserve held rates steady in January 2026, noting that inflation remains 'somewhat elevated', tempering expectations for imminent rate cuts.
- Internal guidance for 2026 suggests production will be at the lower end of the 2025 range, making the company more vulnerable to price declines.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Realized Gold Price per Ounce | Sustained > $4,500/oz | This is the primary driver of revenue and margin expansion. A drop below this level would begin to pressure the high free cash flow generation that underpins the bull thesis. |
| All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) | < $1,550/oz | Demonstrates management's ability to control costs amidst inflationary pressures. A failure to keep costs in check would signal margin compression even if gold prices remain high. |
| Quarterly Attributable Gold Production | > 1.4 million ounces | The market is heavily focused on declining volumes. Meeting or exceeding recent production levels would alleviate a key investor concern and demonstrate that new projects are successfully offsetting declines elsewhere. |
Core Investment Debate
Price-Led Free Cash Flow vs. Operational Decay
BULL VIEW
Record free cash flow, fueled by high gold prices, will fund significant shareholder returns (buybacks, dividends) and debt reduction, making operational concerns secondary.
CORE TENSION
Can record gold prices and resulting free cash flow mask deteriorating operational metrics like declining production and rising costs, or will these fundamentals ultimately drive the stock lower?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH
The stock's negative reaction to the Q3 2025 earnings and revenue beat, where investors focused on declining production volumes, shows the Bearish operational narrative is currently winning.
BEAR VIEW
Decelerating production volumes and rising All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) indicate a fragile, price-dependent operation. The stock is vulnerable to a commodity price correction or further operational slips.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Feb. 19, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & 2026 Guidance Watch: 2026 All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) guidance versus consensus of ~$1,500/oz. Also, 2026 production guidance vs. 2025 levels. |
Ongoing (Fed Meetings, CPI) | Gold Price Reaction to Macro Data Watch: CPI data and Fed commentary on interest rates. Hotter CPI or hawkish Fed rhetoric would strengthen the dollar and raise real yields. |
Anytime | Operational Disruption at Peñasquito Mine Watch: Mexican news reports or union statements indicating renewed labor disputes over profit-sharing or water access. |
Q1-Q2 2026 | Growth Project Update (e.g., Yanacocha Sulfides) Watch: Company updates on project timelines and capital expenditure budgets for key growth assets. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-07-25 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: The company reported its second-quarter results. The negative stock reaction suggests that guidance or underlying metrics may have disappointed investors despite high gold prices. | Fell notably by -3.2% $65.34 -> $63.26 |
2025-08-05 | Strong Central Bank Gold Purchases Reported Details: The World Gold Council report for July likely showed continued strong demand from central banks, reinforcing a key pillar of the bull case for gold prices. | Rose significantly by 2.8% $65.01 -> $66.82 |
2025-09-19 | Ahafo North Mine Commissioning Details: Company announced its new Ahafo North mine in Ghana is online, a key growth project expected to add 275,000-325,000 ounces of annual production, signaling future volume growth. | Rose significantly by 4.3% $78.09 -> $81.48 |
2025-10-23 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Despite beating revenue and EPS estimates, the stock fell sharply. Investors focused on a 4% sequential decline in gold production and concerns over future output. | Plummeted -6.2% $88.65 -> $83.12 |
2025-12-09 | Capital Allocation Update Details: Following strong free cash flow generation, the company likely provided an update on its debt reduction and share repurchase programs, boosting investor confidence. | Surged +5.7% $89.00 -> $94.09 |
2026-01-28 | Stock Hits Multi-Month High Details: Shares reached their highest point in the trailing six-month period, driven by continued strength in gold prices and bullish sentiment in the commodities sector. | Rose significantly by 3.9% $127.00 -> $131.95 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (4.1x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, contested moat, and Low visibility mandate a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
AEM
INDUSTRYAgnico Eagle has a superior cost structure, with Q3 2025 AISC of $1,373/oz significantly below Newmont's $1,566/oz, providing better margin resilience.
Core Thesis: A best-in-class operator with a portfolio of high-quality assets in low-risk jurisdictions, focused on disciplined growth and superior cost control, offering a safer way to get gold exposure.
BTG
INDUSTRYUnlike Newmont's decelerating production, B2Gold is in a growth phase with its Goose Mine ramping up, offering clearer near-term production growth visibility.
Core Thesis: A mid-tier producer with a strong growth pipeline and a history of operational excellence. Valuation is attractive due to perceived geopolitical risk in Mali, which may be overstated. [12]
How Is The Market Pricing NEM?
Trading at a Trailing P/E of 19.7x and a Forward P/E of 35.7x, Newmont is being repriced from a simple gold producer into a more complex story balancing record free cash flow and shareholder returns against a guided production dip and rising costs for FY2026.
Filter all news through the lens of capital discipline and operational execution during a period of peak gold prices and guided cost inflation.
What will confirm the thesis
Sustained gold price above $4,000/oz; any upward revision to 2026 production guidance or downward revision to AISC guidance; announcements of further share repurchases; positive progress reports on key development projects (Tanami Expansion 2, Cadia Panel Caves).
What will damage the thesis
Sustained drop in gold prices below $3,500/oz; operational issues at key mines (Cadia, Boddington, Peñasquito); any downward revision of long-term production growth post-2027; geopolitical instability in key jurisdictions (Ghana, Peru, Argentina).
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Quarterly fluctuations in production from non-core assets; minor swings in copper or silver prices (gold is the primary driver); analyst price target changes not linked to fundamental changes in production or cost guidance.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is focused on the tension between record shareholder returns and a weaker near-term outlook. The catalyst is the new capital allocation framework, which returned $3.4 billion to shareholders in FY2025, and the company's ability to maintain these returns despite a guided ~10% drop in gold production to ~5.3M oz and a ~24% increase in by-product AISC to ~$1,680/oz for FY2026. [11, 12, 20]
What NEM Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release, Feb 19 2026
Gold Mining
$24.9B TTM (89% of Total) · 72% MarginWhat It Is
Gold doré and concentrate from a portfolio of mines including Boddington, Cadia, Peñasquito, Tanami, and the Nevada Gold Mines JV.
Who Pays & How
Global commodity traders, central banks, and refiners purchase gold for use in jewelry, investment (bullion), and industrial applications. Purchases are driven by global macroeconomic factors and supply/demand, not by specific customer relationships or switching costs.
Per-ounce sale based on spot market prices.
Competition
Barrick Gold (GOLD)
Barrick Gold's FY2025 All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) was $1,637/oz, higher than Newmont's. [1, 2]
Newmont's moat is its scale as the world's largest producer and its lower cost structure, with a FY2025 by-product AISC of $1,358/oz, providing a ~$279/oz cost advantage over its primary competitor. [4, 20]
Copper & Other Metals
$3.1B TTM (11% of Total) · 68% MarginWhat It Is
Copper, Silver, Lead, and Zinc, primarily from the Boddington, Cadia, and Peñasquito mines.
Who Pays & How
Global commodity traders and industrial consumers purchase base metals for use in construction, electronics, and manufacturing. Payment is based on global market prices.
Per-tonne or per-ounce sale based on spot market prices.
Competition
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Barrick Gold (GOLD)
Diversified miners may have larger copper-specific operations and associated economies of scale.
These metals are co-products of Newmont's primary gold assets, giving them a cost advantage as a significant portion of mining costs are allocated to gold.
NEM Evolution: Price Return by Era
1921–2001 · Holding Company to Gold Miner
From Diversified Investments to Gold Focus
Founded as a holding company, Newmont gradually shifted focus to mining, becoming a major gold producer by operating mines in North America. This era was defined by building a foundation in gold operations and making strategic investments in other resources like copper. The period culminated with key acquisitions like Battle Mountain Gold, setting the stage for global leadership. [16, 20]
2002–2018 · Global Scale and Consolidation
Becoming the World's Largest Gold Producer Stable with cyclical volatility
In 2002, Newmont acquired Normandy Mining and Franco-Nevada, vaulting it to the position of the world's largest gold producer. [16] This era was characterized by managing a massive global portfolio, developing major new mines in Ghana, and focusing on operational efficiency. The company solidified its portfolio and balance sheet, setting the stage for the next wave of major consolidation.
2019–2026 · Mega-Mergers & Capital Returns
Unrivaled Scale Meets Shareholder Returns +129% (12-months to Feb 2026) [7]
This era is defined by two transformational mergers: the $10B acquisition of Goldcorp in 2019 and the $19B acquisition of Newcrest in 2023. [16, 18] These deals created a producer of unparalleled scale, with a vast portfolio of Tier 1 assets. The strategic focus has shifted to integrating these massive acquisitions, optimizing the portfolio, and deploying record free cash flow towards aggressive shareholder return programs amid historically high gold prices.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is neutral. The price is in a holding pattern with no clear directional commitment from the moving average stack. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum are supportive. OBV (on-balance volume) and up/down volume character favor buyers. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement.
① Structure
0
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+2
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-3
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-1 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Potential Bottoming · -
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2
Momentum
Pausing
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3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Facing Relative Strength
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4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Mild Accumulation
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5
Volatility
Normal
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6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Flat
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7
Earnings Reaction History
Consistent Pressure
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8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
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External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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