Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
Market Price (3/3/2026): $209.42 | Market Cap: $63.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
Market Price (3/3/2026): $209.42Market Cap: $63.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 6.7% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is -0.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 7.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.3 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.8% | Key risksMPC key risks include [1] significant legal liabilities from climate change litigation across various states and [2] short-term profitability impacts from significant planned maintenance costs for its facilities. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 6.7% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 7.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is -0.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.8% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8% |
| Key risksMPC key risks include [1] significant legal liabilities from climate change litigation across various states and [2] short-term profitability impacts from significant planned maintenance costs for its facilities. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock has gained about 10% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Marathon Petroleum significantly surpassed Q4 2025 earnings expectations. The company reported adjusted net income of $1.2 billion, or $4.07 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2025, handily beating the analyst consensus of $3.01 and representing a 35.22% earnings surprise. Net income attributable to MPC for the quarter was $1.5 billion, or $5.12 per diluted share, a substantial increase from $371 million, or $1.15 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2024.
2. Robust refining margins and high utilization drove strong segmental performance. The Refining & Marketing (R&M) segment's adjusted EBITDA dramatically increased to $1.997 billion in Q4 2025, up from $559 million in Q4 2024. This was primarily due to a refining margin of $18.65 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to $12.93 per barrel in the same period of 2024, reflecting higher crack spreads. Marathon also achieved a refining utilization rate of 95% and a margin capture of 114% of the benchmark crack spread.
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1. Marathon Petroleum significantly surpassed Q4 2025 earnings expectations. The company reported adjusted net income of $1.2 billion, or $4.07 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2025, handily beating the analyst consensus of $3.01 and representing a 35.22% earnings surprise. Net income attributable to MPC for the quarter was $1.5 billion, or $5.12 per diluted share, a substantial increase from $371 million, or $1.15 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2024.
2. Robust refining margins and high utilization drove strong segmental performance. The Refining & Marketing (R&M) segment's adjusted EBITDA dramatically increased to $1.997 billion in Q4 2025, up from $559 million in Q4 2024. This was primarily due to a refining margin of $18.65 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to $12.93 per barrel in the same period of 2024, reflecting higher crack spreads. Marathon also achieved a refining utilization rate of 95% and a margin capture of 114% of the benchmark crack spread.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.8% change in MPC stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 192.76 | 209.82 | 8.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 133,262 | 133,262 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.3 | 22.1 | 8.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 303 | 303 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MPC | 8.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.4% | 12.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 26.1% | 68.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.9% change in MPC stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 177.92 | 209.82 | 17.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 133,560 | 133,262 | -0.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.6% | 2.2% | 35.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.6 | 22.1 | -13.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 307 | 303 | 1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MPC | 17.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.7% | 21.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 27.3% | 68.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.7% change in MPC stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 62.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 147.03 | 209.82 | 42.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 138,864 | 133,262 | -4.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.5% | 2.2% | -12.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.6 | 22.1 | 62.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 319 | 303 | 5.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MPC | 42.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.5% | 55.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 28.5% | 78.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 81.1% change in MPC stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 495.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 115.88 | 209.82 | 81.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 177,453 | 133,262 | -24.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.2% | 2.2% | -73.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 3.7 | 22.1 | 495.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 464 | 303 | 53.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 81.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MPC | 81.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.7% | 39.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 49.6% | 73.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MPC Return | 61% | 87% | 30% | -4% | 19% | 22% | 449% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 98% | 12% | -22% | 34% | 24% | 270% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 0% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MPC Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 75% | 52% | 33% | 65% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MPC Max Drawdown | -1% | 0% | -9% | -9% | -15% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -2% | -21% | -27% | -28% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VLO, PSX, PBF, DINO, DK. See MPC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MPC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 113 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -73.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 272.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 435 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 968 days | 120 days |
Compare to VLO, PSX, PBF, DINO, DK
In The Past
Marathon Petroleum's stock fell -30.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -30.2% loss requires a 43.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
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Analogy 1: Think of Marathon Petroleum as the refining and fuel distribution arm of a major oil company such as ExxonMobil or Shell, but without the oil exploration and drilling.
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- Gasoline: A primary motor fuel for vehicles.
- Diesel Fuel: A heavy-duty motor fuel for vehicles and industrial equipment.
- Jet Fuel: A specialized kerosene-based fuel for aircraft.
- Asphalt: A petroleum-based product primarily used in road construction.
- Propane: A liquefied petroleum gas used for heating, cooking, and vehicle fuel.
- Pipeline Transportation (Crude Oil, Refined Products, Natural Gas): The movement of hydrocarbons through extensive pipeline networks.
- Terminaling and Storage (Crude Oil, Refined Products, Natural Gas): Facilities for storing and distributing various petroleum and natural gas products.
- Natural Gas Processing and NGL Fractionation: Services that separate raw natural gas into marketable components and further separate natural gas liquids.
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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) primarily sells its refined petroleum products and services to other businesses on a wholesale basis.
Major Customer Companies and Categories:
- Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. (TYO: 3382): Following the sale of Speedway to 7-Eleven, Inc. (a subsidiary of Seven & i Holdings) in 2021, Marathon Petroleum entered into a significant 15-year fuel supply agreement. Under this agreement, Marathon Petroleum remains a major supplier of fuel to the Speedway-branded convenience stores and other 7-Eleven locations in relevant markets, making Seven & i Holdings, through its 7-Eleven subsidiary, a prominent customer.
- Independent Fuel Marketers and Distributors: These companies purchase refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from MPC at wholesale prices. They then distribute these products to their own networks of retail gas stations (which may operate under MPC's brands like Marathon or ARCO, or be unbranded) or directly to other commercial and industrial clients. Due to the highly fragmented nature of this market, specific major public companies within this category are not typically disclosed by MPC.
- Large Commercial and Industrial End-Users: MPC also supplies fuel directly to various commercial and industrial businesses that require bulk quantities for their operations. This includes entities like trucking companies, airlines, construction firms, agricultural operations, and governmental agencies. Similar to independent marketers, this category comprises numerous individual entities rather than a few individually named major customers.
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- MPLX (MPLX)
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Maryann T. Mannen President and Chief Executive Officer
Maryann T. Mannen was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation in August 2024, having served as President since January 2024. Before becoming President, she was the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation starting in 2021. Prior to joining MPC in 2021, Ms. Mannen accumulated 35 years of experience in the energy sector, holding progressively responsible positions at TechnipFMC and its predecessor companies, including executive vice president and chief financial officer.
John J. Quaid Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
John J. Quaid was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation in January 2024. He previously served as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of MPLX GP LLC, a position he assumed in 2021. Mr. Quaid joined Marathon Petroleum Corporation in 2014 as vice president and controller. Before his time at MPC, he was the vice president of iron ore for U.S. Steel, overseeing all aspects of iron ore mining operations, and also served as vice president and treasurer at U.S. Steel.
Michael J. Hennigan Executive Chairman
Michael J. Hennigan has served as the Executive Chairman of Marathon Petroleum Corporation and MPLX GP LLC since August 2024. He was the Chief Executive Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation from March 2020 to July 2024 and previously held the titles of President and Chief Executive Officer from 2020 to 2023. Before joining MPLX GP LLC in 2017, Mr. Hennigan was president, crude, NGL and refined products of the general partner of Energy Transfer Partners L.P., and prior to that, he was president and chief executive officer of Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. He began his career with Sunoco, Inc. in 1981.
Raymond L. Brooks Executive Vice President, Refining
Raymond L. Brooks is the Executive Vice President, Refining of Marathon Petroleum Corporation, a role he has held since 2018. He also serves as a senior vice president of MPLX GP LLC. Mr. Brooks joined Marathon in 1979 as a chemical engineering co-op and progressed through various technical and management roles at several refineries. He earned a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from the University of Cincinnati in 1983 and a master's degree in business administration from the University of New Orleans in 1988.
Michael A. Henschen Senior Vice President, Refining Operations
Michael A. Henschen serves as the Senior Vice President of Refining Operations, a position he assumed in 2025. He joined Marathon Petroleum Corporation in 1993. Prior to his career at Marathon, Mr. Henschen served five years in the U.S. Army as a non-commissioned officer, leading teams in Germany, Iraq, and Kuwait.
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The key risks to Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are primarily associated with the volatile nature of the energy industry and increasing regulatory pressures:
- Volatility in Refining Margins and Commodity Prices: Marathon Petroleum's financial performance is significantly impacted by substantial fluctuations in the market prices of crude oil and refined products. The refining and marketing segment has experienced notable declines in adjusted EBITDA due to compressed refining profit margins. This is further exacerbated by global overcapacity in the refining sector and normalizing market conditions, which exert pressure on margins.
- Environmental Regulations and Climate Change Litigation: The company faces an increasing number and complexity of environmental laws and regulations, leading to substantial capital expenditures and operating costs for compliance. Marathon Petroleum is also exposed to climate change litigation across various states, which could result in significant legal liabilities. Legal and regulatory concerns are identified as a top risk category for the company.
- Operational Disruptions and Maintenance Costs: The business can be adversely affected by prolonged interruptions or reductions in service of pipelines, railways, or other transportation methods for crude oil or refined products. Additionally, Marathon Petroleum regularly incurs significant planned maintenance costs (turnarounds) for its facilities, which can impact short-term profitability.
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The electrification of transportation, driven by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, poses a clear emerging threat. This trend directly impacts the long-term demand for gasoline and diesel, which are Marathon Petroleum's primary refined products, thereby threatening the core revenue streams from their refining and retail fuel station operations.
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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) operates in several significant addressable markets for its main products and services. The market sizes vary by product and region as follows:
-
Refined Petroleum Products (Overall):
- The North America refined petroleum products market was valued at approximately USD 531.22 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 629.28 billion by 2030.
- Globally, the refined petroleum products market was estimated at USD 1494.34 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 2042.6 billion by 2035.
- The U.S. Oil and Gas Refining Industry market size was USD 468.44 billion in 2025E and is expected to reach USD 600.80 billion by 2033.
-
Gasoline:
- The Gasoline & Petroleum Wholesaling market in the U.S. was USD 664.1 billion in 2024.
- The global gasoline market size was valued at USD 135.39 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 159.25 billion by 2033.
-
Diesel/Distillates:
- The global diesel fuel market size was valued at USD 246.27 billion in 2023 and is poised to grow from USD 255.51 billion in 2024 to USD 342.9 billion by 2032. Another source indicates the global diesel market was valued at USD 226.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 329.2 billion by 2034.
- The U.S. diesel fuel market is estimated to reach USD 60 billion by 2031.
-
Jet Fuel:
- The global jet fuel market is projected to grow from USD 297.87 billion in 2024 to USD 492.23 billion by 2035. Another source reported the global aviation fuel market size was valued at USD 391.23 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow from USD 431.70 billion in 2024 to USD 819.73 billion by 2032.
- The U.S. aviation fuel market was valued at USD 69.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 249.6 billion by 2035.
-
Petrochemicals:
- The global petrochemicals market size was valued at USD 623.83 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow from USD 649.16 billion in 2024 to USD 900.91 billion by 2032. Other sources estimate the global petrochemical market size at USD 659.22 billion in 2024, predicted to reach USD 1,193.26 billion by 2034, and USD 657.72 billion in 2024, expected to be worth around USD 1,182.78 billion by 2034.
- The U.S. petrochemical market size was USD 116.9 billion in 2024, which is expected to reach USD 210.7 billion by 2032. Another source states the United States petrochemicals market size was approximately USD 107.35 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 203.41 billion by 2034.
- The North America petrochemicals market size was valued at USD 155.88 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach around USD 280.32 billion by 2034. The North America Petrochemicals Market is projected to grow from USD 562.4 billion in 2025 to USD 791.2 billion by 2031.
-
Asphalt:
- The global asphalt market size reached USD 259.1 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 397.2 million by 2033. Another source states the global asphalt market size was valued at USD 4 billion in 2023 and is poised to grow from USD 4.2 billion in 2024 to USD 5.96 billion by 2032.
- The U.S. asphalt market size was USD 32.6 million in 2024, which is expected to reach USD 52.9 million by 2032.
-
Lubricants:
- The global lubricants market size was valued at USD 147.42 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 200.91 billion by 2033. Other sources indicate the global lubricants market size was valued at USD 145.02 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 215.19 billion by 2032, and USD 151.66 billion in 2024, expected to reach around USD 224.50 billion by 2034.
- The U.S. lubricants market size was valued at USD 41.71 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to USD 51.03 billion by 2033. Another source states the United States lubricants market size reached USD 32.6 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 41.9 million by 2033. Yet another source estimates the U.S. Lubricant Market size at USD 39.54 billion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 52.06 billion by 2032.
-
Renewable Fuels (Ethanol & Biodiesel):
- The U.S. ethanol market size was USD 27.6 billion in 2024, which is expected to reach USD 42.1 billion by 2032. Another source estimates the U.S. ethanol market to be valued at USD 32.76 billion in 2025 and expected to reach USD 60.66 billion by 2032. The United States Ethanol Market is expected to reach USD 162.7 billion by 2032.
- The United States biodiesel market size reached USD 15.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 23.7 billion by 2033.
-
Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs):
- The global natural gas liquids market size was estimated at USD 15.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 21.59 billion by 2030. Another report indicates the global natural gas liquids market was valued at USD 16.9 billion in 2020 and is estimated to reach USD 28.5 billion by 2030. Market Research Future states the Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) Market is projected to grow from USD 24.72 billion in 2025 to USD 43.04 billion by 2035.
- The North American Natural Gas Liquids market will be USD 7016.88 million in 2024 and will grow to USD 9915.6 million by 2031. The North America Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Market is estimated to grow from USD 7.08 billion in 2024 to USD 11.53 billion in 2033. The U.S. had a major share in the North America NGL market with a market size of USD 5536.32 million in 2024.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) over the next 2-3 years:- Midstream Segment Growth and Expansion: Marathon Petroleum anticipates continued "durable midstream growth" through its subsidiary, MPLX. MPLX targets a distribution growth rate of 12.5% over the next couple of years, which is expected to result in increasing annual cash distributions to MPC. This growth is supported by strategic acquisitions, such as MPLX's acquisition of a Delaware Basin sour gas treating business, and infrastructure projects like the Eiger Express Pipeline, a natural gas pipeline designed to transport up to 2.5 billion cubic feet per day from the Permian Basin to Katy, TX, with service expected to begin in mid-2028.
- Enhanced Refining and Marketing Operational Efficiency and Throughput: The company's refining segment is focused on maintaining high utilization rates and optimizing operations. Marathon Petroleum's refineries achieved utilization rates of 95% in the third quarter of 2025 and 97% in the second quarter of 2025, with several facilities reaching monthly throughput records. Projected crude throughput volumes of 2.7 million barrels per day for the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a 90% utilization rate, underscore a continued focus on maximizing output from existing assets.
- Strategic Refinery Upgrades and Optimization Projects: Investments in refinery upgrades are aimed at improving profitability and increasing the production of higher-value products. For example, the Galveston Bay resid hydrocracker is expected to reach full operating capacity before the end of November 2025, which will optimize the Gulf Coast system. Additionally, a project at the Galveston Bay refinery to upgrade high-sulfur distillate to higher-value ultra-low sulfur diesel, with an estimated return greater than 20%, is slated for completion by year-end 2027.
- Improved Performance and Optimization of Renewable Diesel Facilities: Despite a challenging market environment for renewable diesel, Marathon Petroleum's facilities operated at an 86% utilization rate in the third quarter of 2025, indicating improved operational reliability and efficiency. Continued optimization and a potential rebound in this market could provide an additional revenue stream.
- Strategic Portfolio Optimization: Marathon Petroleum has been actively optimizing its portfolio through strategic transactions. This includes the sale of its interest in an ethanol production joint venture and various acquisitions by MPLX, which are intended to enhance MPLX's growth profile and overall portfolio for future success. This strategic approach to asset management aims to focus on high-return opportunities and streamline operations.
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Share Repurchases
- Marathon Petroleum has maintained significant share repurchase programs, with $7.8 billion available under its authorizations as of December 31, 2024.
- In the fourth quarter of 2024, MPC repurchased $1.3 billion of its shares.
- For the full year 2024, Marathon Petroleum returned $10.2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.
Outbound Investments
- MPLX, a subsidiary of Marathon Petroleum, acquired Northwind Midstream for $2.375 billion in the second quarter of 2025 to enhance its Permian natural gas operations.
- MPLX also acquired the remaining 55% interest in BANGL pipeline for $715 million (expected to close in July 2025), achieving 100% ownership of the pipeline system.
- The company is involved in a strategic partnership with ONEOK, Inc. to develop a 400 thousand bpd LPG export terminal and an associated pipeline, anticipated to be in service in 2028.
Capital Expenditures
- Marathon Petroleum projects standalone capital investments of $1.25 billion for 2025, with approximately 70% dedicated to value-enhancing projects and 30% to sustaining capital. MPLX's capital spending outlook for 2025 is an additional $2.0 billion.
- A primary focus for 2025 capital expenditures includes high-return investments at the Los Angeles, Galveston Bay, and Robinson refineries. Specific projects include a distillate hydrotreater at Galveston Bay and increased jet fuel production flexibility at Robinson.
- Midstream capital expenditures are concentrated on expanding the Permian to Gulf Coast value chain, including growth in long-haul pipelines and increasing processing capacity in the Permian and Marcellus basins.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12262025 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 82.3% | 82.3% | -2.1% |
| 12122025 | NOV | NOV | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 23.6% | 23.6% | -6.5% |
| 12122025 | RIG | Transocean | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 56.9% | 56.9% | -7.0% |
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.6% | 31.6% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.7% | 41.7% | 0.0% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 107.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 36.8 |
| Rev LTM | 76,202 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,214 |
| FCF LTM | 1,014 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,760 |
| CFO LTM | 2,288 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,968 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -10.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -9.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 36.8 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 11.4 |
| P/E | 23.8 |
| P/CFO | 8.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 18.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 32.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 65.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 19.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 27.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 49.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $209.82 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 63.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/01/2011 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $181.73 | $177.74 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 15.5% | 18.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.4% | 35.0% |
| Downside Capture | -29.95 | 43.89 |
| Upside Capture | 18.35 | 73.07 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 11.8% | 56.1% |
MPC Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.87 | 0.55 | 0.37 | 0.59 | 1.01 | 0.83 |
| Up Beta | 1.63 | 1.82 | 1.64 | 1.07 | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| Down Beta | 2.78 | 1.44 | 1.05 | 1.44 | 1.49 | 1.18 |
| Up Capture | 121% | 63% | -17% | 20% | 56% | 27% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 22 | 29 | 65 | 146 | 414 |
| Down Capture | -113% | -125% | -41% | -8% | 54% | 74% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 19 | 32 | 59 | 105 | 337 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | 45.0% | 35.1% | 1.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 30.6% | 25.2% | 1.02 | 78.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.4% | 19.3% | 0.75 | 55.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 86.5% | 25.7% | 2.41 | 12.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.5% | 17.1% | 0.73 | 53.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.1% | 16.6% | 0.24 | 44.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -22.3% | 45.0% | -0.43 | 17.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | 33.7% | 32.6% | 0.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 23.0% | 26.3% | 0.79 | 78.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 41.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.9% | 17.2% | 1.14 | 11.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.1% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 49.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 29.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.2% | 56.8% | 0.33 | 13.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | 24.0% | 40.3% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 11.3% | 29.5% | 0.42 | 77.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 53.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.6% | 15.6% | 0.84 | 3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.9% | 17.6% | 0.42 | 45.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.5% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 44.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 65.1% | 66.8% | 1.05 | 12.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/3/2026 | 6.0% | ||
| 11/4/2025 | -6.1% | 0.3% | -2.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.6% | -5.6% | 7.2% |
| 5/6/2025 | 0.9% | 10.3% | 10.1% |
| 2/4/2025 | 6.7% | 4.6% | -7.6% |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.2% | 7.7% | 4.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | 5.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% |
| 4/30/2024 | -9.4% | -8.8% | -13.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -5.7% | -8.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.7% | 10.3% | 35.7% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -11.2% | -13.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benson, Molly R | Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 163.00 | 10,879 | 1,773,277 | 4,678,091 | Form |
| 2 | Rucker, Kim Kw | Direct | Sell | 7072025 | 175.00 | 7,392 | 1,293,600 | 3,315,247 | Form | |
| 3 | Hessling, Ricky D | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Buy | 3132025 | 134.72 | 2,000 | 269,440 | 1,638,465 | Form |
| 4 | Bayh, Evan | Direct | Buy | 3072025 | 133.70 | 1,000 | 133,700 | 9,266,078 | Form | |
| 5 | Henschen, Michael A Ii | Ex VP, Refining | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 202.32 | 5,289 | 1,070,070 | 3,434,180 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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