Lowe's Companies (LOW)
Market Price (4/6/2026): $230.99 | Market Cap: $129.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Home Improvement Retail
Lowe's Companies (LOW)
Market Price (4/6/2026): $230.99Market Cap: $129.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Home Improvement Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, FCF Yield is 5.9% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 9.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.7 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Sustainable Consumption, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.7% Key risksLOW key risks include [1] potential damage to its public reputation from failures in product quality or its stance on public policy issues, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, FCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 9.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Sustainable Consumption, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.7% |
| Key risksLOW key risks include [1] potential damage to its public reputation from failures in product quality or its stance on public policy issues, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lowe's Companies (LOW) stock has lost about 5% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Weaker-than-expected Q1 2026 performance and cautious guidance.
Lowe's reported a 2.0% year-over-year decline in Q1 2026 revenue to $20.93 billion, falling short of analyst expectations of $20.97 billion. Additionally, comparable sales decreased by 1.7%, and the company's operating margin contracted by 50 basis points to 11.9% for the quarter. Lowe's also indicated that its Q1 2026 sales would fall below the midpoint of its full-year guidance, contributing to investor caution.
2. Persistent challenges in the housing market and discretionary consumer spending.
The home improvement sector continued to face headwinds from a slowed housing market, with homes remaining less affordable than historical averages in 97% of analyzed counties during Q1 2026. Mortgage rates, which were a significant obstacle for buyers, largely held steady above 6% in early 2026. Consumer spending trends shifted away from large, discretionary purchases, evidenced by a sharp 3.8% drop in Lowe's transactions above $500.
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1. Weaker-than-expected Q1 2026 performance and cautious guidance.
Lowe's reported a 2.0% year-over-year decline in Q1 2026 revenue to $20.93 billion, falling short of analyst expectations of $20.97 billion. Additionally, comparable sales decreased by 1.7%, and the company's operating margin contracted by 50 basis points to 11.9% for the quarter. Lowe's also indicated that its Q1 2026 sales would fall below the midpoint of its full-year guidance, contributing to investor caution.
2. Persistent challenges in the housing market and discretionary consumer spending.
The home improvement sector continued to face headwinds from a slowed housing market, with homes remaining less affordable than historical averages in 97% of analyzed counties during Q1 2026. Mortgage rates, which were a significant obstacle for buyers, largely held steady above 6% in early 2026. Consumer spending trends shifted away from large, discretionary purchases, evidenced by a sharp 3.8% drop in Lowe's transactions above $500.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.8% change in LOW stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 240.08 | 231.03 | -3.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 84,256 | 86,287 | 2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.0% | 7.7% | -4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.8 | 19.4 | -2.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 559 | 559 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOW | -3.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 40.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.4% | 59.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.2% change in LOW stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 248.96 | 231.03 | -7.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 83,613 | 86,287 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.2% | 7.7% | -6.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.3 | 19.4 | -4.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 559 | 559 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOW | -7.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 30.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.6% | 48.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.1% change in LOW stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 228.62 | 231.03 | 1.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 83,674 | 86,287 | 3.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.3% | 7.7% | -7.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.5 | 19.4 | 4.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 564 | 559 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOW | 1.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 46.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.2% | 58.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.5% change in LOW stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 188.57 | 231.03 | 22.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 97,059 | 86,287 | -11.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.6% | 7.7% | 16.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.6 | 19.4 | 10.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 602 | 559 | 7.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOW | 22.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 47.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 47.9% | 55.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LOW Return | 63% | -21% | 14% | 13% | -0% | -2% | 62% |
| Peers Return | 65% | -26% | 52% | 5% | -17% | -11% | 45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LOW Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 42% | 65% | 62% | 45% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LOW Max Drawdown | -4% | -33% | -6% | -5% | -14% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -40% | -8% | -11% | -21% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HD, FND, BLDR, SHW, TSCO. See LOW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LOW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 830 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 160.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,358 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HD, FND, BLDR, SHW, TSCO
In The Past
Lowe's Companies's stock fell -34.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -34.3% loss requires a 52.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Lowe's Companies (LOW)
Lowe's Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. The company offers a line of products for construction, maintenance, repair, remodeling, and decorating. It provides home improvement products, such as appliances, seasonal and outdoor living, lawn and garden, lumber, kitchens and bath, tools, paint, millwork, hardware, flooring, rough plumbing, building materials, décor, lighting, and electrical. It also offers installation services through independent contractors in various product categories; extended protection plans; and in-warranty and out-of-warranty repair services. The company sells its national brand-name merchandise and private brand products to homeowners, renters, and professional customers. As of January 28, 2022, it operated 1,971 home improvement and hardware stores. The company also sells its products through websites comprising Lowes.com and Lowesforpros.com; and through mobile applications. Lowe's Companies, Inc. was founded in 1921 and is based in Mooresville, North Carolina.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Lowe's Companies (LOW):
It's like Walmart, but solely focused on everything you need for home improvement, from appliances to lumber.
Imagine an Amazon for building materials, tools, and home decor, but with nearly 2,000 large physical stores for hands-on shopping and project advice.
Similar to Home Depot, it's one of the largest big-box retailers specializing in products and services for home construction, repair, and decoration.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Home Improvement Merchandise: Lowe's sells a vast array of products for construction, maintenance, repair, remodeling, and decorating, including appliances, lumber, tools, paint, and flooring.
- Installation Services: The company provides professional installation services for various product categories through independent contractors.
- Extended Protection Plans: Lowe's offers plans for customers to extend the warranty coverage on their purchased products.
- Repair Services: In-warranty and out-of-warranty repair services are provided for products sold by Lowe's.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lowe's Companies (LOW) primarily serves the following categories of customers:
- Homeowners: Individuals who own their homes and undertake various home improvement, repair, remodeling, and decorating projects.
- Renters: Individuals who rent their residences and may purchase products for minor decorating, repair, or maintenance.
- Professional Customers: These include contractors, remodelers, tradespeople, and other businesses that purchase products and services for their projects and operations.
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Marvin R. Ellison, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
Marvin Ellison joined Lowe's in July 2018. He has more than 35 years of experience in retail leadership and operations. Prior to Lowe's, he served as Chairman and CEO of J.C. Penney Co., where he led a turnaround strategy that improved the company's balance sheet, increased store productivity, and generated positive sales growth. Ellison also spent 12 years in senior-level operations roles with The Home Depot, serving as Executive Vice President of U.S. stores from 2008 to 2014. Earlier in his career, he spent 15 years at Target Corp. in various operational and leadership capacities, initially starting as a security guard. He holds a bachelor's degree in business administration from the University of Memphis and an MBA from Emory University.
Brandon J. Sink, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Brandon Sink was appointed CFO of Lowe's, effective April 30, 2022. He joined Lowe's in 2010 and brings over 20 years of finance and accounting experience to his role. During his tenure at Lowe's, he has held various positions, including senior vice president of retail finance, vice president of merchandising finance, vice president of enterprise strategy, and vice president and corporate controller. Before joining Lowe's, he worked in accounting and finance roles at Deloitte and Nucor Corporation. Sink is a Certified Public Accountant and holds a bachelor's degree in business administration and a master's degree in accounting from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
William P. (Bill) Boltz, Executive Vice President, Merchandising
Bill Boltz is responsible for both in-store and online merchandising for Lowe's.
Seemantini Godbole, Executive Vice President, Chief Digital and Information Officer
Seemantini Godbole oversees the day-to-day operations of Lowe's information technology department.
Joseph M. McFarland III, Executive Vice President, Stores
Joseph McFarland is responsible for overseeing the operations of Lowe's North, South, and West store divisions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Lowe's Companies (LOW):
- Economic Downturn and Reduced Consumer Spending: Lowe's business is highly sensitive to the overall health of the economy, particularly consumer confidence and discretionary spending on home improvement projects. Factors such as high interest rates, inflation, and general economic uncertainty can lead to reduced consumer spending, impacting sales, especially for larger, more discretionary purchases. Although a portion of Lowe's products are considered essential, a significant slowdown in home renovation or new home sales due to these macroeconomic pressures could negatively affect the company's financial performance.
- Intense Competition: The home improvement retail market is highly competitive. Lowe's faces significant competition from its primary rival, The Home Depot, which has an aggressive strategy, particularly in the professional customer segment. Additionally, Lowe's competes with other large retailers such as Amazon and Walmart, as well as various specialized and local niche providers, all vying for market share. This intense competition puts pressure on pricing, product offerings, and the need for continuous innovation to attract and retain customers.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Lowe's relies on an extensive global network of suppliers and vendors for its diverse product offerings. This dependency makes the company vulnerable to various supply chain disruptions, which can stem from geopolitical conflicts, changes in trade policies (e.g., tariffs), or global health crises. Such disruptions can result in inventory shortages, increased procurement and transportation costs, and delays in product availability, ultimately affecting customer satisfaction and the company's financial results.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The emergence of integrated, end-to-end digital platforms for home improvement projects that combine AI-driven design, direct material sourcing from manufacturers/wholesalers, and vetted on-demand project management and labor. Such platforms could streamline the entire renovation or repair process for consumers, potentially bypassing traditional retailers like Lowe's for both product procurement and service coordination by offering a more seamless, consolidated, and potentially cost-effective alternative.
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The addressable markets for Lowe's Companies' main products and services in the U.S. are sized as follows:- Home Improvement Market (U.S.): The U.S. home improvement market was valued at approximately USD 534.57 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 549.27 billion in 2025 and USD 682.40 billion by 2033. Another estimate places the U.S. residential remodeling market at USD 545.61 billion for 2024, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% through 2030.
- Appliances (U.S.): The U.S. household appliances market was estimated at USD 99.34 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 102.54 billion in 2025. Specifically, the U.S. household kitchen appliances market was valued at USD 63.21 billion in 2024, anticipated to reach USD 64.43 billion in 2025.
- Lawn and Garden (U.S.): The U.S. lawn care market was valued at USD 309.15 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 488.02 billion by 2034. The broader U.S. lawn and garden market is expected to reach $83 billion in 2025 and rise to $102 billion by 2028.
- Kitchens and Bath (U.S.): The U.S. residential kitchen and bath market is expected to total USD 228 billion in 2025, a slight decrease from USD 232 billion in 2024. Another projection for the kitchen and bath industry estimates USD 235 billion in revenue for 2025.
- Paint (U.S.): The U.S. paint market size was valued at USD 20.96 billion in 2024 and is expected to be worth USD 21.98 billion by 2025, reaching USD 32.13 billion by 2033. For the broader U.S. paints and coatings market, estimates range from USD 31.78 billion in 2024 to USD 43.8 billion in 2024.
- Flooring (U.S.): The U.S. flooring market size had varying estimates, with one source valuing it at USD 74.60 billion in 2024 and projected to reach USD 134.90 billion by 2033. Another estimate indicates the U.S. flooring market size was USD 117.31 billion in 2025, anticipated to reach USD 123.90 billion in 2026. A more conservative estimate for the U.S. flooring market is USD 45.47 billion in 2025, forecast to reach USD 62.42 billion by 2030.
- Building Materials (U.S.): The U.S. construction materials market was valued at USD 145.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 196.1 billion by 2032.
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Lowe's Companies (LOW) is focusing on several key initiatives to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily centered around its "Total Home Strategy" and strategic expansion.
The expected drivers of future revenue growth include:
- Driving Pro Penetration: Lowe's aims to increase its market share with professional customers. This includes relaunching its Pro loyalty program as MyLowe's Pro Rewards in early 2025 to make earning and redeeming rewards easier and faster for small-to-medium Pros. The company also plans to expand jobsite and rooftop delivery services through its Pro Extended Aisle initiative.
- Accelerating Online Sales: Lowe's is investing in its digital capabilities to enhance the omnichannel shopping experience. This includes leveraging generative AI to improve customer experience and productivity, and launching the first product marketplace in the U.S. home improvement industry to offer a broader online selection without managing additional inventory.
- Expanding Home Services: As part of its 2025 Total Home Strategy, Lowe's is focused on expanding its home services offerings to meet a wider range of customer needs.
- Creating a Loyalty Ecosystem: The company is developing a more cohesive loyalty program. In early 2025, the MyLowe's Pro Rewards program will be relaunched, and a new DIY loyalty program, MyLowe's Rewards, has been rolled out nationally, with members reportedly spending 50% more than non-members.
- New Store Growth and Rural Offering Expansion: To expand its footprint and attract new DIY and Pro customers, Lowe's plans to open 10-15 new stores per year over the next several years in fast-growing U.S. markets. Additionally, the company is extending its rural product assortments to an additional 150 stores, bringing the total rural store count to nearly 500, to better serve customers in these communities with a wider range of products.
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Share Repurchases
- On December 7, 2022, Lowe's Board of Directors authorized a new $15.0 billion common stock repurchase program with no expiration date. As of January 31, 2025, $10.8 billion remained under this program.
- Lowe's repurchased common stock totaling $4.053 billion for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2025, $6.138 billion for the fiscal year ended February 2, 2024, and $14.124 billion for the fiscal year ended February 3, 2023.
- In 2022, the company returned $16.5 billion to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends, following $13.1 billion in share repurchases in 2021.
Share Issuance
- Lowe's reported proceeds from the issuance of common stock under share-based payment plans of $149 million for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2025, and $159 million for the fiscal year ended February 2, 2024.
- Employee stock-based compensation expense, related to share issuances, increased from $98 million in 2020 to $230 million in 2022, and then stabilized around $210-$220 million in subsequent years.
Outbound Investments
- In fiscal year 2025 (ended January 30, 2026), Lowe's invested approximately $3 billion in cash for the acquisitions of Artisan Design Group (ADG) and Foundation Building Materials (FBM). The company also recognized $149 million in pre-tax expenses associated with these acquisitions in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.
- On February 3, 2023, Lowe's completed the sale of its Canadian retail business, which included 232 stores and serviced 210 dealer-owned stores in Canada.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $2.2 billion for the fiscal year ended January 30, 2026, and $1.927 billion for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2025.
- Lowe's anticipates approximately $2.5 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026.
- These investments are primarily focused on the "Total Home strategic initiatives," ongoing productivity efforts, store and technology enhancements, and the integration of recently acquired businesses like Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group. The company also plans to open 10-15 new stores annually in growing U.S. markets and expand its rural offerings.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 155.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 50.7 |
| Rev LTM | 19,549 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,632 |
| FCF LTM | 1,754 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,924 |
| CFO LTM | 2,543 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,587 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 50.7 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 15.3 |
| P/E | 21.5 |
| P/CFO | 13.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -19.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 9.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -53.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $231.03 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 129.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/01/1985 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $258.95 | $245.67 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -10.8% | -6.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 29.7% | 25.3% |
| Downside Capture | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| Upside Capture | 53.06 | 63.16 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 39.9% | 43.1% |
LOW Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.23 | 0.70 | 0.95 | 0.61 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| Up Beta | 4.96 | 1.76 | 1.41 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| Down Beta | 0.92 | 1.19 | 1.40 | 0.90 | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| Up Capture | 59% | -4% | 66% | 32% | 54% | 53% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 22 | 35 | 65 | 130 | 387 |
| Down Capture | 130% | 68% | 63% | 55% | 79% | 95% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 20 | 28 | 61 | 122 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | 0.7% | 25.9% | -0.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 9.1% | 23.7% | 0.31 | 58.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 19.0% | 0.67 | 46.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.5% | 28.0% | 1.46 | 1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.2% | 17.7% | 0.77 | 0.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 16.5% | 0.04 | 54.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.5% | 44.0% | -0.42 | 12.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | 5.8% | 25.9% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.3% | 23.7% | 0.23 | 60.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 56.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 17.8% | 1.00 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 7.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 56.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.9% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 18.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | 14.0% | 28.9% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 21.9% | 0.50 | 65.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 63.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.0% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 20.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 56.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 13.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/25/2026 | -5.6% | -7.5% | -15.2% |
| 11/19/2025 | 4.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% |
| 8/20/2025 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 4.4% |
| 5/21/2025 | -1.7% | -2.9% | -8.0% |
| 2/26/2025 | 1.9% | -1.0% | -4.3% |
| 11/19/2024 | -4.6% | 1.3% | -8.1% |
| 8/20/2024 | -1.2% | 3.0% | 5.5% |
| 5/21/2024 | -1.9% | -6.0% | -0.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 3.0% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -3.2% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 9.6% | 11.6% | 15.1% |
| Max Negative | -8.2% | -7.5% | -15.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/25/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/23/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 92.00 Bil | 93.00 Bil | 94.00 Bil | 8.1% | Higher New | Actual: 86.00 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 0.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 11.6% | 11.7% | 11.8% | -3.3% | -0.4% | Lower New | Actual: 12.1% for 2025 |
| 2026 Net Interest Expense | 1.60 Bil | 14.3% | Higher New | Actual: 1.40 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Effective Income Tax Rate | 24.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | Higher New | Actual: 24.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 EPS | 12.2 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 2.0% | Higher New | Actual: 12.2 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 2.50 Bil | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 2.50 Bil for 2025 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/19/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 86.00 Bil | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 85.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Revenue Growth | 0.0% | -100.0% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.5% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Operating Margin | 12.1% | -1.2% | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 12.25% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 EPS | 12.2 | -0.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 12.3 for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 2.50 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.50 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Net Interest Expense | 1.40 Bil | 7.7% | Raised | Guidance: 1.30 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Effective Income Tax Rate | 24.0% | -2.0% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 24.5% for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simkins, Lawrence | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 231.06 | 1,000 | 231,063 | 462,125 | Form | |
| 2 | McFarland, Joseph Michael | EVP, Stores | Direct | Sell | 9122025 | 272.60 | 43,810 | 11,942,440 | 18,145,639 | Form |
| 3 | Sink, Brandon J | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 268.58 | 8,192 | 2,200,199 | 5,802,084 | Form |
| 4 | Pryor, Juliette Williams | EVP, CLO & Corp. Sec. | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 257.20 | 929 | 238,939 | 7,741,463 | Form |
| 5 | Ellison, Marvin R | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8212025 | 264.10 | 40,000 | 10,564,071 | 65,772,700 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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