Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Market Price (2/28/2026): $159.14 | Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Market Price (2/28/2026): $159.14Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.9x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Key risksLOPE key risks include [1] intense legal and regulatory scrutiny from federal agencies over its advertising practices and nonprofit status claims, Show more. | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.5% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.5% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.9x |
| Key risksLOPE key risks include [1] intense legal and regulatory scrutiny from federal agencies over its advertising practices and nonprofit status claims, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Weak Near-Term Earnings Guidance for 2026. Grand Canyon Education issued Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) guidance of $2.70-$2.73, which was significantly below the consensus analyst estimate of approximately $3.19. The company's Q2 2026 EPS guidance of $1.56-$1.68 also fell materially short of the consensus estimate of approximately $2.75, signaling front-loaded weakness in fiscal year 2026 and raising concerns about the near-term earnings trajectory.
2. Disappointing Q3 2025 Results and Outlook. The company's third-quarter 2025 earnings and full-year guidance were perceived as disappointing by analysts, leading to a substantial stock price drop. The stock experienced a "30%+ haircut" from around $218 to $150 in the month following the Q3 FY 2025 report. This was further impacted by concerns regarding a falling revenue per student and higher-than-expected benefit costs, which reduced Q3 EPS by $0.06.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.5% change in LOPE stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 188.30 | 159.07 | -15.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,068 | 1,106 | 3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.2% | 19.5% | -11.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.3 | 20.2 | -9.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 27 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -15.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 21.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.6% | 30.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.7% change in LOPE stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 168.63 | 159.07 | -5.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,048 | 1,106 | 5.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.9% | 19.5% | -10.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.7 | 20.2 | -2.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 27 | 3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -5.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 10.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 5.7% | 13.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.4% change in LOPE stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 175.64 | 159.07 | -9.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,019 | 1,106 | 8.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.1% | 19.5% | -11.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.6 | 20.2 | -10.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 27 | 5.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.4% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -9.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 36.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 36.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 36.5% change in LOPE stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 116.56 | 159.07 | 36.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 904 | 1,106 | 22.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.0% | 19.5% | -11.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.4 | 20.2 | 10.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 27 | 14.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 36.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | 36.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.0% | 34.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 60.9% | 32.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LOPE Return | -8% | 23% | 25% | 24% | 2% | -4% | 72% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 19% | 46% | 42% | -4% | 7% | 149% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LOPE Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 52% | 62% | 52% | 52% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LOPE Max Drawdown | -25% | -9% | -5% | -8% | -8% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -18% | -8% | -9% | -16% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LOPE, STRA, ATGE, PRDO, LRN. See LOPE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LOPE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,443 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 333 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to LOPE, STRA, ATGE, PRDO, LRN
In The Past
Grand Canyon Education's stock fell -39.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/16/2021. A -39.1% loss requires a 64.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Online Degree Programs: Grand Canyon Education provides a wide array of undergraduate, graduate, and doctoral degree programs delivered entirely through its online learning platform.
- Campus-Based Degree Programs: The company offers traditional undergraduate and graduate degree programs on its physical university campus, including residential experiences and campus life activities.
- Educational Support Services: It provides various ancillary services such as academic advising, tutoring, career development, and library resources to enhance student learning and success.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlGrand Canyon Education (symbol: LOPE) primarily sells its services to other companies/organizations, specifically educational institutions.
Major Customer:
- Grand Canyon University (GCU) - GCU is a private, non-profit university. Following a conversion in 2018, Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) became a third-party service provider to GCU, offering a comprehensive suite of academic, marketing, enrollment, technology, and other support services. Substantially all of LOPE's revenue is derived from its services to Grand Canyon University. As a private entity, GCU does not have a public stock symbol.
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Brian E. Mueller, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
Brian E. Mueller has served as Chief Executive Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 1, 2008, and as Chairman of the Board since January 2017. Prior to his tenure at Grand Canyon Education, Mr. Mueller was President and a Director of Apollo Education Group, Inc., the parent company of the University of Phoenix, from 2006 to 2008. He also held various executive positions with the University of Phoenix Online, including CEO from 2002 to 2005, and Chief Operating Officer and Senior Vice President from 1997 to 2002. His career in higher education began as a professor at Concordia University from 1983 to 1987.
Daniel E. Bachus, Chief Financial Officer
Daniel E. Bachus has been the Chief Financial Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 2008. Before joining Grand Canyon Education, Mr. Bachus served as Chief Financial Officer for Loreto Bay Company, a real estate developer, from January 2007 to June 2008. From 2000 to 2006, he was the Chief Accounting Officer and Controller of Apollo Education Group, Inc., the parent company of the University of Phoenix. He also gained experience at Deloitte & Touche LLP, where he was an Audit Senior Manager from 1992 to 2000. Mr. Bachus is a Certified Public Accountant.
W. Stan Meyer, Chief Operating Officer
W. Stan Meyer has served as Chief Operating Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 2012. Prior to this role, he was the Executive Vice President from June 2008 to July 2012. From 2002 to 2008, Mr. Meyer was employed by Apollo Education Group, Inc., the parent company of the University of Phoenix, where his roles included Executive Vice President of Marketing and Enrollment from 2006 to 2008. He also served as Regional Vice President of the University of Phoenix Online and Division Director at Axia College and the School of Advanced Studies, all units of the University of Phoenix.
Dilek Marsh, Chief Technology Officer
Dilek Marsh has been the Chief Technology Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 2021. Her previous roles at the company include Chief Data Officer from July 2018, Executive Vice President since July 2012, and Senior Vice President since August 2008. Ms. Marsh has accumulated over 20 years of experience in higher education, with a focus on information technology roles such as software development project management, business process design, and business analytics since 1999.
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Key Risks to Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
- Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny: Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) faces significant risks due to extensive government legal action and tightening regulatory rules within the higher education sector. The Biden administration's revival of the Gainful Employment (GE) rule could jeopardize the company's eligibility for federal student loans if programs are deemed to leave graduates with excessive debt or insufficient income. Historically, Grand Canyon University (GCU), LOPE's primary partner, has been subject to legal battles and investigations, including a substantial fine from the Department of Education and a lawsuit from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) concerning deceptive advertising practices and its nonprofit status. Although the Department of Education recently recognized GCU's nonprofit status in December 2025, reversing earlier decisions, the persistent regulatory and legal challenges represent an ongoing material risk to LOPE's operations and financial stability.
- High Concentration Risk on Grand Canyon University (GCU): LOPE's business model is heavily dependent on Grand Canyon University (GCU), its flagship institution and largest customer. Grand Canyon Education derives a substantial majority of its service revenue from GCU, with 90.4% of service revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2025, attributed to this partnership. Any adverse changes to GCU's operations, policies, or student enrollment, or any regulatory actions taken against GCU, could significantly impact LOPE's revenue and financial performance.
- Enrollment Challenges and Competitive Pressures: The company has experienced enrollment challenges, particularly with online students, which have been attributed to factors such as high enrollment during the initial stages of the pandemic and subsequent recruiting difficulties. The broader postsecondary education market has seen declining enrollment, with for-profit colleges being notably affected. Furthermore, LOPE faces demographic headwinds, including a shrinking pool of traditional high school graduates and an increasing trend toward shorter, non-degree educational pathways. The highly competitive education services market necessitates continuous innovation and value-added services to maintain market share and attract new students.
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The U.S. Department of Education's rescission of guidance related to "bundled services" offered by Online Program Managers (OPMs) under the incentive compensation ban represents a clear emerging threat. This change, which previously allowed OPMs like LOPE to engage in revenue-sharing agreements with universities, could force a shift to less profitable fee-for-service models, leading to contract renegotiations, reduced margins, and a potential decrease in demand for OPM services from partner institutions.
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Online Program Management (OPM) Services
The addressable market for Online Program Management (OPM) services in the U.S. is estimated to be $3.37 billion in 2025. This market was previously projected to reach $8.25 billion but has been revised downward due to a reduction in new OPM partnership activity. Globally, the online program management market was valued at USD 11.56 billion in 2023 and is projected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 19.87% from 2024 to 2032. Another projection indicates the global OPM market size will cross USD 7.5 billion by 2025.
Higher Education Services (U.S.)
The addressable market for higher education services in the United States, which includes both traditional on-campus and online programs, generated a revenue of USD 192,918.6 million (approximately $192.9 billion) in 2023. This market is expected to reach USD 370,409.0 million (approximately $370.4 billion) by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 9.8% from 2024 to 2030. Another estimate valued the U.S. higher education market size at USD 211.36 billion in 2024 and anticipates it will reach approximately USD 669.24 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 12.22% from 2025 to 2034.
Healthcare Education Services
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Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Growth in Online Enrollments: The company consistently emphasizes strong performance and future expectations for its online programs. Management anticipates mid-to-high single-digit growth in new student starts and overall online enrollment. In Q2 2025, Grand Canyon University's online enrollments increased by 10.1%.
- Expansion of Hybrid Educational Offerings and Off-Campus Sites: GCE is actively expanding its hybrid programs and off-campus classroom and laboratory sites. Hybrid enrollments demonstrated significant year-over-year growth, increasing by 14% in Q2 2025 and 19.3% in Q3 2025 (excluding closed sites and those in teach-out). The company projects new enrollment growth rates for hybrid programs to remain in the low to mid-teens during the second half of 2025.
- Introduction of New Programs in High-Demand Fields: Grand Canyon Education continues to develop and roll out new academic programs, with an annual target of over 20 new offerings. The strategic focus is on expanding online and hybrid programs, particularly in fields such as healthcare and technology, and developing workforce development initiatives to address specific industry shortages.
- Strategic University Partnerships: As an education services provider, GCE currently partners with 22 universities. The company leverages its extensive expertise and technological infrastructure to support these partners, including services like marketing, enrollment management, curriculum development, and faculty training. Continuing to grow and deepen these partnerships, which also includes collaborations with over 5,500 employers, is a key driver for sustained revenue expansion.
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Share Repurchases
- Grand Canyon Education has an active share repurchase program, with $136.4 million remaining available under its authorization as of November 5, 2025.
- The company's board and management intend to continue using a significant portion of cash flows from operations for share repurchases.
- The company repurchased approximately $47.4 million of common stock in the second quarter of 2025 and $39.5 million in the third quarter of 2025.
Inbound Investments
- Institutional investors hold a significant portion of Grand Canyon Education's stock, with 94.17% owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.
- Driehaus Capital Management LLC purchased a new position in shares worth approximately $15.8 million in the first quarter of 2025.
- Foresight Group Ltd Liability Partnership also acquired a new stake worth approximately $14.4 million in the first quarter of 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Grand Canyon Education's capital expenditures (CapEx) for the third quarter of 2025 were approximately $9.7 million, or 3.7% of service revenue.
- The company anticipates full-year CapEx for 2025 to be between $30 million and $35 million, comparable to prior years.
- These capital expenditures are primarily focused on leasehold improvements and equipment for new off-campus classroom and laboratory sites, as well as technology and furniture to support employee growth.
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| 12312025 | ANDG | Andersen | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -16.4% | -16.4% | -29.3% |
| 10312021 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 20.4% | 26.3% | -11.9% |
| 09302020 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.0% | 10.0% | -3.1% |
| 01312020 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.4% | 8.5% | -24.2% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,256 |
| Op Inc LTM | 303 |
| FCF LTM | 195 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 199 |
| CFO LTM | 248 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 263 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.4 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 9.9 |
| P/E | 13.8 |
| P/CFO | 10.6 |
| Total Yield | 8.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -21.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 98.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -28.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 22.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $159.07 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/20/2008 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -27.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $168.55 | $183.99 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | -5.6% | -13.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.1% | 33.0% |
| Downside Capture | 90.21 | 40.66 |
| Upside Capture | 93.37 | 22.19 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 24.9% | 36.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.42 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.16 | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| Up Beta | 1.95 | 1.46 | -0.28 | 0.62 | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Down Beta | 0.30 | 0.63 | 1.16 | 0.94 | 0.87 | 0.78 |
| Up Capture | 59% | 35% | -15% | -19% | 12% | 17% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 29 | 66 | 131 | 392 |
| Down Capture | -39% | -82% | 35% | -51% | 29% | 64% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 32 | 58 | 118 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -10.0% | 32.9% | -0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 9.2% | 24.1% | 0.31 | 36.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.5% | 19.4% | 0.66 | 36.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 81.3% | 25.7% | 2.29 | -1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.4% | 16.9% | 0.58 | 6.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.3% | 16.6% | 0.25 | 40.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.2% | 44.9% | -0.37 | 14.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | 8.4% | 30.0% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.9% | 23.7% | 0.29 | 32.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 33.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.5% | 17.1% | 1.12 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.0% | 0.44 | 5.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 29.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.5% | 57.0% | 0.30 | 12.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | 15.5% | 30.8% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.6% | 21.9% | 0.57 | 36.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 38.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 12.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 32.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 8.2% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/18/2026 | -7.9% | -6.5% | |
| 11/5/2025 | -6.3% | -4.7% | -15.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | 13.2% | 15.1% | 18.7% |
| 5/6/2025 | 4.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| 2/19/2025 | 1.8% | -2.5% | -7.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | 2.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | -3.5% | -3.0% | -3.6% |
| 5/7/2024 | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -5.9% | -6.1% | -12.9% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 16.1% | 26.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.0% | -12.3% | -29.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Humphrey, Chevy | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 166.15 | 600 | 99,690 | 520,216 | Form | |
| 2 | Keegan, Lisa Graham | Direct | Sell | 5132025 | 195.67 | 500 | 97,835 | 522,830 | Form | |
| 3 | Claypatch, Kathy J | CHIEF INFORMATION OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3042025 | 179.03 | 1,500 | 268,545 | 1,363,851 | Form |
| 4 | Bachus, Daniel E | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3042025 | 180.40 | 4,163 | 751,005 | 19,889,641 | Form |
| 5 | Meyer, William Stan | CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3042025 | 180.40 | 4,163 | 751,005 | 18,888,421 | Form |
LOPE Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
HARD_NO: Insufficient data to perform analysis. A conviction score of 1 is assigned as no meaningful investment assessment can be made based on the provided tool code which lacks actual data.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Information not availableArchetype and reasoning cannot be determined from the provided tool code.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Detailed investment thesis requires data from search results, which were not provided.
- No supporting evidence from tool code.
PRIMARY RISK
Primary risk analysis requires data from search results, which were not provided.
- No supporting evidence from tool code.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| No specific KPI identified | N/A | KPI watchlist requires detailed analysis not present in tool code. |
The Post-Regulatory Re-Rating vs. Decelerating Growth
BULL VIEW
The primary investment overhang is removed. Strong free cash flow and a clean balance sheet, focused on a durable growth market, now warrant a premium valuation.
CORE TENSION
With the DoE now recognizing GCU's non-profit status, the debate shifts from existential risk to valuation. Can operational execution justify a re-rating, or does slowing growth cap the upside?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Recent news confirms the DoE has affirmed GCU's non-profit status, resolving the primary bear case. However, Q3 2025 results showed online enrollment growth decelerated to 9.6% from 10.1% in Q2.
BEAR VIEW
The regulatory good news is priced in. Bears now focus on the tangible deceleration in online enrollment growth (10.1% in Q2 to 9.6% in Q3) as a fundamental headwind.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 18, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Watch: Q4 and guided FY26 online enrollment growth rate. A stabilization or re-acceleration above 9.5% is critical. |
Next 3 Months | 10-K Filing: Details on GCU Secured Note Refinancing Watch: Disclosure of new interest rate and covenants. Any terms suggesting financial strain on GCU would be negative. |
Next 3-6 Months | AI-Powered Competitor Launch or Partnership Watch: Announcement of a major university partnering with a scaled, AI-native learning platform for core degree programs. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 6, 2025 | Q2 2025 Earnings & FTC Lawsuit Dropped Details: Reported strong Q2 results with 8.8% revenue growth and 10.3% partner enrollment growth. Around this time, the FTC also dropped its lawsuit, further boosting sentiment. | Surged +13.2% $172.05 -> $194.68 |
Aug 25, 2025 | GCU Projects Record Fall Enrollment Details: GCU announced projections for a record 133,000 students for the 2025-26 academic year, an 8% increase. The positive strategic news saw a muted immediate stock reaction. | Flat (-0.2%) $203.39 -> $203.07 |
Oct 31, 2025 | Announces $35M Litigation Settlement Details: The company disclosed a $35 million litigation reserve related to a lawsuit over its enrollment counselor compensation plan. The stock dropped sharply on the unexpected financial impact. | Plummeted -11.4% $206.79 -> $183.26 |
Nov 5, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: LOPE beat revenue forecasts but the stock fell as investors focused on a slight deceleration in year-over-year online enrollment growth and declining revenue per student. | Plummeted -6.3% $178.28 -> $167.05 |
Dec 16, 2025 | Department of Education Affirms GCU's Non-Profit Status Details: The DoE officially affirmed the non-profit status of GCU, removing the largest regulatory overhang and a core tenet of the bear thesis. The stock reacted positively to the de-risking event. | Rose significantly by 2.4% $161.36 -> $165.23 |
Jan 7, 2026 | GCU Announces 18th Consecutive Tuition Freeze Details: GCU announced it would freeze tuition for the 2026-27 academic year, reinforcing its affordable, volume-driven growth strategy. The stock saw a slight pullback despite the positive strategic news. | Slight -1.4% pullback $170.97 -> $168.51 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Volatility is moderate (2.6x S&P) and compressing. While visibility is high, the Neutral sentiment from decelerating growth prevents a max position. A Normal size balances elite execution with remaining operational questions.
Diversification Alternatives
LRN
SECTORUnlike LOPE's concentrated university partner risk, LRN has a diversified customer base of K-12 schools, avoiding the specific Title IV higher-ed regulatory battles.
COUR
SECTORAvoids LOPE's single-partner risk with a highly diversified base of university and corporate partners. Stronger brand perception among 'Aspirational Professionals'.
Grand Canyon Education is a scaled education services provider whose stable, high-margin revenue is almost entirely dependent on a single customer relationship, Grand Canyon University (GCU), making its primary risk regulatory scrutiny of the OPM (Online Program Management) model.
Filter all news through the lens of the GCE-GCU relationship, student enrollment growth, and regulatory threats to the revenue-share model.
Sustained partner enrollment growth >7% YoY; successful addition of new, material university partners; any legal or regulatory victories that validate the Master Services Agreement structure; guidance increases.
Department of Education or other regulatory actions that invalidate or force material changes to the revenue-share model; declining enrollment at GCU or other partners; loss of GCU as a client; guidance reductions.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in revenue per student; short-term changes in on-campus vs. online student mix; general news about the higher education industry without specific regulatory impact on the OPM bundled services model.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary forward catalyst is continued mid-to-high single-digit enrollment growth at its university partners, particularly GCU, which directly drives revenue growth. For FY 2026, the company guides for revenue between $1,167.5M and $1,189.0M, representing ~6.5% YoY growth at the midpoint, driven by expected continued demand for online and hybrid higher education programs.
Education Services for University Partners
$1.1B TTM (100% of Total) · 28.3% MarginWhat It Is
GCE provides a bundled suite of services including marketing, strategic enrollment management, counseling (admissions, financial aid), technology platform (LMS), curriculum development, and faculty services.
Who Pays & How
Grand Canyon University (GCU) is the primary customer, accounting for the vast majority of revenue. GCE receives ~60% of GCU's tuition and fee revenue under a long-term Master Services Agreement. GCU pays for this bundled service to achieve scale in its online and hybrid programs without building out the extensive operational infrastructure itself.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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