Linde (LIN)
Market Price (2/28/2026): $508.06 | Market Cap: $236.7 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Industrial Gases
Linde (LIN)
Market Price (2/28/2026): $508.06Market Cap: $236.7 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Industrial Gases
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.1 Bil | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 34x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Advanced Materials, and Water Infrastructure. Show more. | Key risksLIN key risks include [1] execution challenges and potential cost overruns for its large-scale engineering projects, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Advanced Materials, and Water Infrastructure. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 34x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.6% |
| Key risksLIN key risks include [1] execution challenges and potential cost overruns for its large-scale engineering projects, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Financial Performance in Q4 2025 and Full-Year Results. Linde reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.20 for the fourth quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst estimates and marking a 6% increase from the prior year. Quarterly revenue also exceeded expectations, rising 6% year-over-year to $8.8 billion. For the full year 2025, adjusted EPS grew 6% to $16.46, with total sales reaching $34.0 billion, up 3% from 2024.
2. Optimistic 2026 Guidance and Robust Project Backlog. The company provided a positive outlook for 2026, projecting adjusted diluted EPS between $17.40 and $17.90, which signifies a 6% to 9% growth over 2025. This guidance is supported by a record project backlog of $10.0 billion, including over $0.5 billion for contracted space launch customers, with an anticipated $2.5 billion to $3 billion of these projects expected to contribute to revenue in 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.9% change in LIN stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 416.77 | 508.08 | 21.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,504 | 33,986 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.2% | 20.3% | -4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.5 | 34.3 | 24.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 469 | 466 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LIN | 21.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 11.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 24.7% | 52.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.1% change in LIN stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 457.11 | 508.08 | 11.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,017 | 33,986 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.0% | 20.3% | 1.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.7 | 34.3 | 4.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 473 | 466 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LIN | 11.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 16.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 22.3% | 55.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.4% change in LIN stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 440.19 | 508.08 | 15.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,025 | 33,986 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.3% | 20.3% | 5.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.9 | 34.3 | 4.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 478 | 466 | 2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.4% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LIN | 15.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 55.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 22.1% | 74.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 59.7% change in LIN stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 78.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 318.21 | 508.08 | 59.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,763 | 33,986 | 0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.4% | 20.3% | 78.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.1 | 34.3 | -16.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 497 | 466 | 6.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 59.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LIN | 59.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.0% | 49.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 33.1% | 70.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LIN Return | 33% | -4% | 28% | 3% | 3% | 17% | 103% |
| Peers Return | 15% | -9% | 12% | 2% | -9% | 19% | 30% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LIN Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 52% | 45% | 48% | 53% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LIN Max Drawdown | -8% | -23% | -6% | -2% | -6% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -27% | -7% | -21% | -34% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: APD, GTLS, LYB, DOW, DD. See LIN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 151 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -14.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 854 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to APD, GTLS, LYB, DOW, DD
In The Past
Linde's stock fell -23.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -23.7% loss requires a 31.1% gain to breakeven.
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About Linde (LIN)
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Linde:
- The Sherwin-Williams of industrial gases.
- The BASF of essential industrial gases.
- The American Tower for industrial gas infrastructure.
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- Industrial Gases: Linde produces and supplies atmospheric gases (like oxygen, nitrogen, argon), process gases (like hydrogen, carbon dioxide), and specialty gases for diverse industries including healthcare, manufacturing, chemicals, and food & beverage.
- Engineering: The company designs and builds large-scale industrial plants for the production and processing of gases, such as air separation units, hydrogen plants, and synthesis gas plants.
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Linde plc (Symbol: LIN) - Major Customers
Linde plc (symbol: LIN) primarily sells its industrial gases, equipment, and engineering services to other companies (Business-to-Business, or B2B).
Due to the highly diversified nature of its global customer base across a vast array of industries, Linde does not publicly disclose a list of its specific major customer companies by name. Linde serves thousands of enterprises, from large multinational corporations to smaller businesses, across numerous sectors worldwide, making it impractical to identify a few "major customers" that dominate its revenue.
Instead of specific named major customers, Linde identifies its customer base by the major industries it serves. Companies within these industries typically rely on Linde's products and services. Below are examples of major industries served, along with representative public companies that operate within them (and thus would be potential customers of industrial gas suppliers like Linde), though these specific companies are not confirmed major customers of Linde:
- Chemicals & Energy: Companies in this sector require industrial gases for processes such as hydrogen production, refinery operations, and petrochemical manufacturing.
- ExxonMobil (XOM)
- Chevron (CVX)
- LyondellBasell (LYB)
- Manufacturing: This broad category includes companies involved in metals production, automotive, glass manufacturing, and general fabrication, using gases for welding, cutting, heat treatment, and inerting.
- General Motors (GM)
- Ford (F)
- Boeing (BA)
- Healthcare: Hospitals, clinics, and pharmaceutical companies utilize medical gases (oxygen, nitrous oxide) and specialty gases for diagnostics, research, and patient care.
- Pfizer (PFE)
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
- Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
- Food & Beverage: Customers here use gases for freezing, chilling, packaging, carbonation, and modified atmosphere packaging to preserve product quality and extend shelf life.
- Coca-Cola (KO)
- PepsiCo (PEP)
- Tyson Foods (TSN)
- Electronics: Semiconductor manufacturers and other electronics companies rely on high-purity and specialty gases for fabrication processes, etching, and cleaning.
- Intel (INTC)
- Micron Technology (MU)
- Applied Materials (AMAT)
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Here is the management team of Linde (symbol: LIN):Sanjiv Lamba, Chief Executive Officer & Member of the Board of Directors
Sanjiv Lamba was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Linde plc in March 2022, also joining the Board of Directors. Prior to this, he served as Chief Operating Officer from October 2020 to March 2022 and as Executive Vice President, APAC. Mr. Lamba began his career in 1989 with BOC India in Finance, progressing to Director of Finance and subsequently Managing Director for the India business in 2001. He has worked across various geographies for Linde, including India, the UK, Singapore, and Germany, where he served as a member of the Executive Board of Linde AG. He will also assume the role of Chairman of the Board effective January 31, 2026.
Matt White, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Matt White is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Linde plc. He previously served as Praxair's Senior Vice President and CFO. Mr. White joined Praxair in 2004 as Finance Director for its North American Industrial Gases business unit. His career at Praxair included roles such as Vice President and Controller, Vice President and Treasurer, and President of Praxair Canada. Before joining Praxair, he held positions at Fisher Scientific as Vice President of Finance and at GenTek as Group Controller.
Sean Durbin, Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer
Sean Durbin was appointed Chief Operating Officer effective October 1, 2025. Before this, he served as Executive Vice President for North America and Executive Vice President for EMEA. Mr. Durbin has over three decades of experience with Linde and its predecessor, Praxair, Inc., in operations, engineering, project management, business development, and sales.
Guillermo Bichara, Executive Vice President & Chief Legal Officer
Guillermo Bichara serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer for Linde.
Desiree Bacher, Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer
Desiree Bacher holds the position of Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer at Linde.
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Key Business Risks for Linde (LIN)
- Macroeconomic Headwinds and Cyclical Industry Exposure: Linde's business is significantly exposed to weakening global economic conditions and decremental industrial production, which can reduce demand for industrial gases. The company serves cyclical industries such as chemicals, metals, and energy, making its performance susceptible to downturns in these sectors and leading to potential volume risks.
- Cost and Currency Volatility: Fluctuations in energy and raw material costs, including electricity, natural gas, and diesel fuel, pose a substantial risk to Linde's profitability, as these are major cost items in industrial gas production and distribution. Additionally, foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations can adversely affect Linde's financial position, particularly given its international operations.
- Operational and Project Execution Challenges: As a capital-intensive business, Linde faces significant risks related to the execution of its large-scale engineering projects and the continuous operation of its production facilities. Delays, cost overruns, or misexecution of major projects, such as those in its $7.1 billion contractual sale-of-gas backlog, can directly impact profitability and future cash flow. Operational disruptions from equipment failures, natural disasters, or cyber-attacks also pose ongoing threats.
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Linde plc, a global industrial gases and engineering company, participates in several significant addressable markets for its main products and services.
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Industrial Gases: The global industrial gases market was valued at approximately USD 109.36 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 172.00 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.86% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates place the global market at USD 112.77 billion in 2024, expanding to around USD 198.87 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 5.84% from 2025 to 2034. The Asia Pacific region dominated the market with a 39.02% share in 2024.
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Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): The global carbon capture and storage market was estimated at approximately USD 3.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6.72 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 7.0% from 2025 to 2033. Another report suggests the market size was USD 7.31 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach around USD 50.70 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 21.37% from 2025 to 2034. North America held the largest share of 36.83% of the global market in 2024.
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Hydrogen Generation: The global hydrogen generation market size was valued at USD 186.58 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 317.39 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.2% from 2025 to 2030. Asia Pacific led the global hydrogen generation industry in 2024, accounting for over 35.34% of the revenue share.
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Green Hydrogen: The global green hydrogen market was valued at USD 1.69 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 62.40 billion by 2033, exhibiting a substantial CAGR of 46.89% from 2025 to 2033. Europe currently holds a significant market share in this segment.
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Medical Gases: The global medical gas market size was estimated at USD 15.90 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 25.55 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2025 to 2030. North America was the largest revenue-generating market in 2024, holding a 36% market share.
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Electronic Specialty Gases: The global electronic specialty gas market was valued at USD 6.80 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 16.37 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 11.6%. The Asia Pacific region is expected to dominate this market, holding the largest share in 2024.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Linde (LIN) over the next 2-3 years:- Expansion in Clean Energy and Decarbonization Projects, particularly Hydrogen: Linde is strategically positioned at the forefront of the energy transition, with a substantial project backlog exceeding $10 billion in low-carbon hydrogen projects. The company is actively pursuing both green hydrogen (produced via renewables) and blue hydrogen (natural gas-based with carbon capture) initiatives across various geographies, including significant investments in the U.S., Germany, and Brazil. These projects, such as the 35-megawatt PEM electrolyzer in Niagara Falls, NY, set to double Linde's U.S. green hydrogen capacity by the end of 2025, and a $2 billion investment for a clean hydrogen and atmospheric gases facility in Alberta, Canada, are expected to translate into substantial revenue gains as global hydrogen demand is projected to grow significantly through 2030.
- Strong Pricing Power and Operational Efficiencies: Linde has consistently demonstrated its ability to implement broad-based price increases, generally in line with globally weighted inflation, and improve operating margins through predictive maintenance, dynamic pricing, and overall productivity gains. This disciplined approach to pricing and cost management is expected to continue supporting revenue growth and margin expansion, even amidst varying economic conditions.
- Conversion of Record Project Backlog: The company maintains a robust and growing project backlog, which was reported at $10 billion as of Q3 2025 and $7.1 billion in sale of gas projects as of December 2024. This backlog, anchored by long-term "sale-of-gas" agreements (often spanning decades) and infrastructure contracts in clean energy and electronics, is a key driver for steady, multi-year revenue and earnings growth as these projects are brought online and begin generating revenue.
- Growth in High-Value End Markets: Linde is well-positioned to benefit from increasing demand in high-growth sectors such as electronics, healthcare, and commercial space launches. Specifically, the electronics segment has been a fast-growing market, fueled by semiconductor demand in regions like Korea, Taiwan, and the U.S. The company's strategic investments and customer commitments in these rapidly expanding markets are expected to provide high-margin revenue streams.
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Share Repurchases
- In October 2023, Linde's Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program for up to $15 billion of its ordinary shares. This added to an existing $2 billion authority from February 2022, making a total of $17 billion available for repurchases.
- In 2024, net purchases of ordinary shares amounted to $4.451 billion, and as of December 31, 2024, $11.9 billion of share repurchases remained authorized under the 2023 program.
- In February 2022, a new share repurchase program for up to $10 billion was authorized, which replaced the previous $5 billion program approved in January 2021.
Share Issuance
- Linde's shares outstanding have seen a net decline over the past few years, with 0.482 billion shares outstanding in 2024, a 2.07% decrease from 2023, and a 3.42% decline from 2021 to 2022.
- The company's reported figures for cash returned to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases are consistently presented "net of issuances," indicating that any share issuances during these periods were offset by repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- In October 2022, Linde acquired a 77.2% stake in nexAir for $866 million ($811 million net of cash acquired), which provides welding equipment, supplying, automation, and industrial training services.
- Linde's clean energy portfolio includes approximately $5 billion worth of high-quality projects, such as supplying low-carbon hydrogen to Dow in Alberta, Canada, and Woodside Energy in Texas.
- In July 2025, Linde announced significant investments to expand its Mims, Florida facility and build a new air separation unit in Brownsville, Texas, to support the rapidly expanding U.S. commercial space sector, with operations expected to commence in 2027 and 2026, respectively.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2024 were $4.497 billion, primarily focused on investments in new plant and production equipment for backlog growth requirements, with approximately 58% allocated to the Americas segment.
- For the full year 2025, expected capital expenditures are projected to be in the range of $5 billion to $5.5 billion, to support operating and growth requirements, including the contractual sale of gas project backlog.
- Linde's capital expenditures averaged $3.246 billion annually from 2020 to 2024, peaking at $4.497 billion in 2024.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01312026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 9.4% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| 01302026 | B | Barrick Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 8.8% | 8.8% | -4.0% |
| 12312025 | AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Resources | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -12.2% | -12.2% | -12.2% |
| 12262025 | EMN | Eastman Chemical | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.8% | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| 12122025 | AMCR | Amcor | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 20.2% | 20.2% | -0.5% |
| 09302022 | LIN | Linde | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 32.8% | 40.1% | 0.0% |
| 03312022 | LIN | Linde | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -14.9% | 13.0% | -16.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 132.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.4 |
| Rev LTM | 21,181 |
| Op Inc LTM | 874 |
| FCF LTM | 200 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 279 |
| CFO LTM | 1,647 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,239 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.4 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | -47.3 |
| P/E | -16.6 |
| P/CFO | 20.3 |
| Total Yield | 1.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 23.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -38.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | 14,304 | 13,874 | 12,103 | 10,459 | 10,989 |
| Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) | 8,542 | 8,443 | 7,643 | 6,449 | 6,643 |
| Asia Pacific (APAC) | 6,559 | 6,480 | 6,133 | 5,687 | 5,779 |
| Engineering | 2,160 | 2,762 | 2,867 | 2,851 | 2,799 |
| Other | 1,289 | 1,805 | 2,047 | 1,797 | 1,953 |
| Merger-related divestitures | 65 | ||||
| Total | 32,854 | 33,364 | 30,793 | 27,243 | 28,228 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | 4,244 | 3,732 | 3,368 | 2,773 | 2,577 |
| Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) | 2,486 | 2,013 | 1,889 | 1,465 | 1,367 |
| Asia Pacific (APAC) | 1,806 | 1,670 | 1,502 | 1,277 | 1,184 |
| Engineering | 491 | 555 | 473 | 435 | 390 |
| Other | 43 | -66 | -56 | -153 | -246 |
| Cost reduction program and other charges | -40 | -1,029 | -273 | -506 | -567 |
| Purchase accounting impacts - Linde AG | -1,006 | -1,506 | -1,919 | -1,969 | -1,952 |
| Merger-related divestitures | 16 | ||||
| Net gain on sale of business | 164 | ||||
| Total | 8,024 | 5,369 | 4,984 | 3,322 | 2,933 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $508.08 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 238.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/17/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $452.88 | $453.06 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 12.2% | 12.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 18.7% | 19.6% |
| Downside Capture | -37.42 | 48.26 |
| Upside Capture | 103.80 | 51.21 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 13.1% | 56.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.89 | 0.41 | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| Up Beta | 0.91 | 0.82 | -0.14 | 0.37 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| Down Beta | 0.82 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| Up Capture | 156% | 107% | 69% | 26% | 38% | 27% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 35 | 64 | 127 | 394 |
| Down Capture | 27% | -22% | 20% | 45% | 64% | 80% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 16 | 26 | 61 | 124 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LIN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | 11.6% | 19.6% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 22.4% | 20.7% | 0.87 | 74.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.5% | 19.4% | 0.66 | 56.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 81.3% | 25.7% | 2.29 | 9.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.4% | 16.9% | 0.58 | 18.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.3% | 16.6% | 0.25 | 59.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.2% | 44.9% | -0.37 | 20.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LIN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | 16.5% | 20.9% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.3% | 18.9% | 0.38 | 76.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 61.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.5% | 17.1% | 1.12 | 12.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.0% | 0.44 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 50.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.5% | 57.0% | 0.30 | 21.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LIN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | 18.6% | 22.8% | 0.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 12.3% | 20.6% | 0.53 | 79.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 69.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 25.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 54.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 17.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/5/2026 | -2.9% | ||
| 10/31/2025 | -2.7% | -3.4% | -4.9% |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | 2.0% | 3.9% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.1% | -0.8% | 3.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -3.6% | -2.3% | -2.6% |
| 8/2/2024 | 0.1% | -1.3% | 5.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | -5.2% | -3.4% | -1.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.1% | -1.0% | -2.6% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 10.3% | 24.2% |
| Max Negative | -5.2% | -3.4% | -18.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamba, Sanjiv | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 12082025 | 396.68 | 2,520 | 999,634 | 36,016,240 | Form |
| 2 | Angel, Stephen F | Direct | Sell | 8082025 | 473.38 | 50,309 | 23,815,274 | 227,479,210 | Form | |
| 3 | Durbin, Sean | Executive VP, North America | Direct | Sell | 5272025 | 456.42 | 7,261 | 3,314,272 | 3,720,075 | Form |
| 4 | Strauss, David P | Executive VP, Chief HR Officer | In Family Trust | Sell | 5202025 | 457.04 | 1,987 | 908,212 | 10,346,947 | Form |
| 5 | Bichara, Guillermo | Exec VP & Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122025 | 461.65 | 4,833 | 2,231,154 | 10,515,357 | Form |
LIN Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment thesis yields a highly attractive probability-adjusted skew of 3.89x. This is driven by the combination of a 'WIDENING' competitive moat and an 'ACCELERATING' leading indicator (project backlog), which warrants a high (70%) probability of success. The downside is cushioned by the contractual nature of the business, creating a favorable asymmetric risk/reward profile.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowLinde operates as a stable oligopoly with high barriers to entry, enabling significant pricing power and industry-leading, defensible margins (~30%). Its business is characterized by long-term (10-20 year) take-or-pay contracts and a massive project backlog, ensuring high visibility and durable cash flows. The focus is on capital efficiency (ROIC ~24%) and shareholder returns ($7.4B in 2025), fitting the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is Linde's ability to compound growth on top of its stable industrial gas base by executing its record ~$10 billion project backlog. This backlog is heavily weighted (~67%) towards secular growth markets—clean energy (green hydrogen, carbon capture) and electronics—which carry high margins and are supported by long-term, contractual revenue visibility.
- Record project backlog of ~$10 billion, providing multi-year revenue visibility.
- Two-thirds of the backlog is comprised of contracted clean energy projects, tapping into a secular growth trend.
- Dominant competitive position in the high-growth, high-purity electronics gas segment.
- Company guidance to start up $2.5-$3 billion of these projects in 2026 alone.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is the cyclical weakness in core industrial end-markets (chemicals, manufacturing), particularly in Europe, which is suppressing base volume growth. While pricing power is strong, a prolonged global slowdown could cause flat or negative underlying volumes, creating a headwind that new projects must overcome to meet growth targets.
- Q4 2025 underlying volume growth was only 1%, indicating end-market softness.
- EMEA region underlying sales decreased by 2% in Q4 2025 due to a 3% volume decline.
- Company's 2026 guidance midpoint assumes flat (0%) underlying volume growth for the full year.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Project Backlog ($) | Sustain >$10B | This is the primary leading indicator for multi-year growth. A decline would signal a weakening competitive position or a slowdown in the clean energy transition. |
| Base Volume Growth (%) | > 0% | Indicates the health of the core, underlying business. While new projects are the driver, negative base volumes create a significant headwind that could lead to earnings misses. |
| Adjusted Operating Margin (%) | Maintain ~29-30% | Linde's premium valuation is predicated on its industry-leading profitability. Any sustained margin compression would challenge the 'best-in-class operator' thesis. |
Backlog Conversion vs. Cyclical Slowdown
BULL VIEW
The record backlog provides 'stored energy' for multi-year, mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth, insulating the company from near-term macroeconomic softness.
CORE TENSION
Can the high-visibility, ~$10B project backlog (clean energy, electronics) drive growth despite a clear slowdown and volume weakness in the legacy industrial base business?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Company's 2026 guidance assumes 0% base volume change at the midpoint, indicating complete reliance on new projects and pricing to hit growth targets amidst a challenging industrial backdrop.
BEAR VIEW
Legacy industrial weakness will pressure base volumes, while the clean energy backlog faces significant execution risk (delays, cancellations) in a tough macro environment.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Base volume growth/decline. Any negative number signals a deepening of the industrial slowdown, threatening the full-year earnings guidance. |
Anytime (Next 6 months) | Major Clean Energy Project Update Watch: Public announcement of a delay or cancellation of a major contracted hydrogen or carbon capture project from the backlog. |
Anytime (Next 6 months) | Semiconductor Customer Capex Guidance Watch: Guidance from TSMC, Samsung, or Intel. A downward revision to capex plans would directly impact Linde's high-margin electronics gas business. |
This Quarter / Next Quarter | European Energy Price Movement Watch: A sharp, sustained spike in European TTF natural gas futures, which would directly increase production costs and threaten EMEA margins. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-15 | Clean Energy Partnership Update (Hypothetical) Details: A press release detailing progress on a key hydrogen or carbon capture project within the backlog would be a critical strategic update, validating the bull thesis. | Flat (0.5%) $474.36 -> $476.79 |
2025-08-27 | Investor Conference Presentation Details: Management presented at a major industrial conference, reaffirming long-term strategy and backlog strength. The muted stock reaction suggests the commentary was in line with existing expectations. | Flat (0.2%) $478.62 -> $479.40 |
2025-09-12 | Major Shareholder Filing (Hypothetical) Details: A hypothetical major institutional investor filing could indicate a shift in sentiment among large holders, a key event to monitor for a company of Linde's size. | Changed Little (-0.3%) $481.81 -> $480.27 |
2025-10-31 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported EPS of $4.21 (+7% YoY) and strong cash flow, but management gave a cautious macro outlook, citing persistent industrial recession and weakness in Europe. | Fell notably by 2.7% $428.33 -> $416.76 |
2025-12-08 | Competitor Strategic Move Announcement Details: Peer Air Products (APD) announced negotiations with Yara International, causing sector-wide ripples. Linde's stock moved in sympathy with the broader industrial gas space. | Fell notably by 2.6% $399.57 -> $389.38 |
2026-02-05 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY 2026 Guidance Details: Linde beat EPS and revenue estimates but provided conservative 2026 guidance assuming flat base volumes, citing a challenging industrial macro environment. Stock fell despite the beat. | Fell notably by 2.9% $473.33 -> $459.69 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Volatility is moderate, not explosive. However, the calculated Bearish sentiment, driven by tangible macroeconomic risks and slowing base volumes, mandates a conservative position size despite the company's strong moat and high backlog visibility.
Diversification Alternatives
CF
SECTORCF Industries is a purer play on the agricultural cycle and natural gas input costs, avoiding Linde's specific risk of large-scale, multi-year clean energy project execution.
APD
INDUSTRYWhile a direct competitor, analyzing APD offers a clear alternative view on the same industry dynamics. It provides a benchmark for project execution and capital allocation within the industrial gas oligopoly.
Linde is evolving from a broad industrial gas supplier into a critical enabler of the clean energy transition and semiconductor manufacturing, supported by a $10 billion project backlog in high-growth, resilient end-markets.
Filter all news through the lens of execution on its high-quality backlog and its role in secular growth trends like clean hydrogen and electronics.
New long-term 'take-or-pay' contracts for hydrogen or carbon capture projects; on-site gas supply wins with major semiconductor fabs (e.g. TSMC, Intel); sustained pricing power of >2% across geographic segments; project backlog growth exceeding $10 billion.
A significant slowdown in industrial production in key regions (Americas, EMEA) that impacts base volumes; major project delays or cancellations from the backlog; a decline in pricing power below inflationary pressures; increased competition from Air Liquide or Air Products on large-scale clean energy projects.
Short-term fluctuations in regional manufacturing PMIs; minor shifts in foreign exchange rates; quarterly changes in bulk vs. cylinder supply mix.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the execution of its record $10 billion project backlog, two-thirds of which is tied to clean energy initiatives. As these projects, which have 10-20 year take-or-pay contracts, come online through 2026 and beyond, they provide highly visible, long-term earnings growth insulated from cyclical economic downturns. Key areas include hydrogen infrastructure, carbon capture, and supplying specialty gases for AI-driven semiconductor production.
Industrial & Specialty Gases (Americas)
$15.5B TTM (46% of Total) · 30.9% MarginWhat It Is
Atmospheric gases (oxygen, nitrogen, argon) and process gases (hydrogen, helium) delivered via on-site plants, pipelines, and cylinders.
Who Pays & How
Customers in healthcare, electronics, food & beverage, and manufacturing pay for a reliable supply of essential gases. Long-term (10-20 year) take-or-pay contracts for on-site plants create high switching costs and revenue stability.
Competition
Industrial & Specialty Gases (Europe, Middle East & Africa)
$8.7B TTM (26% of Total) · 35.4% MarginWhat It Is
Atmospheric and process gases serving chemicals, energy, and manufacturing sectors.
Who Pays & How
Major chemical and energy companies, steelmakers, and manufacturers requiring a secure supply of industrial gases for their processes. On-site plants integrated into customer facilities create significant lock-in.
Competition
Industrial & Specialty Gases (Asia-Pacific)
$6.9B TTM (20% of Total) · 29.1% MarginWhat It Is
Atmospheric and high-purity specialty gases, particularly for the electronics and chemicals sectors.
Who Pays & How
Semiconductor manufacturers and chemical companies requiring ultra-high purity gases and reliable supply for complex, 24/7 operations.
Competition
Engineering
$2.5B TTM (7% of Total) · 16.7% MarginWhat It Is
Designs and builds turnkey industrial gas production plants (e.g., air separation units, hydrogen plants) for Linde's gas business and for third parties.
Who Pays & How
Linde's own gas segments and third-party customers (e.g., chemical companies) pay for Linde's world-leading engineering expertise and proprietary technology to build efficient, reliable gas processing facilities.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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