Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.2%, FCF Yield is 5.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -22%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  Key risks
KR key risks include [1] significant uncertainty and regulatory hurdles surrounding its proposed merger with Albertsons.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.2%, FCF Yield is 5.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -22%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2%
7 Key risks
KR key risks include [1] significant uncertainty and regulatory hurdles surrounding its proposed merger with Albertsons.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The Kroger Co. (KR) stock experienced a significant event on December 12, 2025, when it reported a Q3 2025 net loss of $1.32 billion, or -$2.02 per diluted share, primarily due to a substantial non-cash impairment charge of $2.585 billion related to its automated fulfillment network. This strategic review included plans to close three fulfillment centers, cancel a planned site, and accrue a $350 million cash termination payment to Ocado. Despite the GAAP loss, Kroger's underlying operations showed resilience, with adjusted net earnings of $697 million, or $1.05 per diluted share, an increase from $0.98 in the prior year. Sales for Q3 2025 were $33.9 billion, a modest increase of 0.7%, and identical sales excluding fuel and adjusted items rose by 2.6%, indicating steady core demand. Looking at the broader period, Kroger announced its second quarter 2025 results on September 11, 2025, for the period ending August 16, 2025. For Q2 FY2025, revenue remained flat at $33.9 billion, but identical sales excluding fuel climbed 3.4%. Earnings per share (non-GAAP) increased by 11.8% year-over-year to $1.04. The company also raised the lower end of its guidance for fiscal 2025 sales growth, operating profit, and EPS. The stock has also been impacted by broader market sentiment, with technical indicators showing a bearish sentiment and the Fear & Greed Index indicating "Fear" as of December 20, 2025. Despite these fluctuations, Kroger has continued its capital return program, executing a $5.0 billion accelerated share repurchase that retired 75.6 million shares at an average price of $66.68, and increasing its quarterly dividend to $0.35 per share. Key points for Kroger (KR) stock movement from approximately 8/31/2025 to today (12/21/2025) include: 1. Impairment Charge on Automated Fulfillment Network: Kroger reported a Q3 2025 net loss of $1.32 billion, driven by a $2.585 billion non-cash impairment and related charges for its automated fulfillment network, including plans to close three centers and a $350 million payment to Ocado.

2. Strong Underlying Operational Performance: Despite the large impairment, adjusted net earnings for Q3 2025 increased to $697 million ($1.05 per diluted share) from $0.98 in the prior year, with identical sales excluding fuel and adjusted items growing by 2.6%.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KR Return12%45%0%5%37%5%146%
Peers Return43%-14%12%12%14%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KR Win Rate67%75%42%50%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%63%47%60%50%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KR Max Drawdown-7%-1%-6%-3%-2%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-8%-23%-14%-16%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMT, COST, TGT, ACI, CVS. See KR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-31.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven787 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-18.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven111 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-42.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,031 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-38.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,466 days1,480 days

Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, TGT, DG


In The Past

Kroger's stock fell -31.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -31.7% loss requires a 46.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Kroger (KR)

Better Bets than Kroger (KR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.3%10.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-5.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.3%10.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-5.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Kroger

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KRWMTCOSTTGTACICVSMedian
NameKroger Walmart Costco W.Target Albertso.CVS Heal. 
Mkt Price62.41114.36855.6298.0117.4377.7287.87
Mkt Cap40.9911.9379.944.59.898.671.5
Rev LTM147,225703,061280,391105,24281,371394,084213,808
Op Inc LTM1,55628,97610,6505,2041,55810,7517,927
FCF LTM2,26915,2639,0033,0096596,2934,651
FCF 3Y Avg2,25114,9847,6073,7326066,4275,080
CFO LTM6,06240,97714,7636,7742,5889,1097,942
CFO 3Y Avg6,13337,58812,6077,6462,6089,2778,462

Growth & Margins

KRWMTCOSTTGTACICVSMedian
NameKroger Walmart Costco W.Target Albertso.CVS Heal. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.8%4.3%8.3%-2.2%2.1%6.8%3.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.2%5.4%6.7%-1.1%2.6%7.7%4.0%
Rev Chg Q0.7%5.8%8.3%-1.6%2.0%7.8%3.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.2%1.4%1.9%-0.4%0.4%1.9%0.9%
Op Mgn LTM1.1%4.1%3.8%4.9%1.9%2.7%3.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg1.9%4.1%3.6%5.1%2.3%3.3%3.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.6%-0.1%0.0%-0.2%-0.1%0.1%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM4.1%5.8%5.3%6.4%3.2%2.3%4.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.1%5.6%4.8%7.2%3.3%2.5%4.5%
FCF/Rev LTM1.5%2.2%3.2%2.9%0.8%1.6%1.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.5%2.2%2.9%3.5%0.8%1.8%2.0%

Valuation

KRWMTCOSTTGTACICVSMedian
NameKroger Walmart Costco W.Target Albertso.CVS Heal. 
Mkt Cap40.9911.9379.944.59.898.671.5
P/S0.31.31.40.40.10.30.4
P/EBIT27.927.433.88.46.016.421.9
P/E51.839.845.811.810.0210.342.8
P/CFO6.722.325.76.63.810.88.8
Total Yield4.1%3.3%2.5%13.1%13.4%3.9%4.0%
Dividend Yield2.2%0.8%0.3%4.6%3.3%3.4%2.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.9%2.5%2.3%7.0%5.6%7.1%5.7%
D/E0.60.10.00.51.50.80.5
Net D/E0.50.1-0.00.41.50.70.4

Returns

KRWMTCOSTTGTACICVSMedian
NameKroger Walmart Costco W.Target Albertso.CVS Heal. 
1M Rtn-5.3%7.0%-4.2%17.1%-0.8%2.2%0.7%
3M Rtn-4.3%12.0%-9.9%12.6%-1.9%4.6%1.4%
6M Rtn-12.4%19.5%-12.5%5.0%-18.4%19.0%-3.7%
12M Rtn3.0%25.2%-9.9%-22.2%-8.0%82.7%-2.5%
3Y Rtn50.1%145.1%92.9%-23.6%-10.4%-7.4%21.3%
1M Excs Rtn-10.3%11.0%-6.8%11.0%-5.2%-1.4%-3.3%
3M Excs Rtn-4.9%9.3%-11.3%12.6%-3.0%2.2%-0.4%
6M Excs Rtn-28.2%3.9%-28.0%-9.5%-33.5%5.1%-18.8%
12M Excs Rtn-8.9%8.0%-25.4%-35.2%-20.0%71.1%-14.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-22.0%71.6%13.3%-99.7%-80.7%-84.5%-51.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Retail operations segment sales145,701143,810133,751128,523118,617
Other sales4,338    
Total150,039143,810133,751128,523118,617


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity30,394,456
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520255.6%
Average Daily Volume6,180,720
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.92
Basic Shares Quantity655,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/4/2025-4.6%-7.5% 
9/11/20250.3%-0.1%0.8%
6/20/20259.8%8.8%10.8%
3/3/2025-3.0%2.9%4.4%
12/5/20241.3%2.4%1.2%
9/12/20247.2%6.1%7.2%
6/20/2024-3.3%-5.0%4.9%
3/7/20249.9%11.1%13.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141315
# Negative10119
Median Positive6.3%6.0%4.9%
Median Negative-3.0%-4.6%-5.6%
Max Positive11.6%12.1%16.2%
Max Negative-7.5%-11.4%-14.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251212202510-Q 11/8/2025
7312025919202510-Q 8/16/2025
4302025627202510-Q 5/24/2025
1312025401202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241213202410-Q 11/9/2024
7312024920202410-Q 8/17/2024
4302024628202410-Q 5/25/2024
1312024402202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231208202310-Q 11/4/2023
7312023915202310-Q 8/12/2023
4302023623202310-Q 5/20/2023
1312023328202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221209202210-Q 11/5/2022
7312022916202210-Q 8/13/2022
4302022624202210-Q 5/21/2022
1312022329202210-K 1/29/2022