CarMax (KMX)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $38.76 | Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
CarMax (KMX)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $38.76Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 6.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -234 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 185% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.0% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 6.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -234 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 185% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KMX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Disappointing Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results. CarMax reported its second-quarter fiscal year 2026 results, for the period ending August 31, 2025, which significantly missed Wall Street's expectations for both revenue and adjusted earnings per share. The company announced revenues of $6.59 billion, below analyst estimates of approximately $7 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.64, missing consensus estimates of $1.03 to $1.05. This financial underperformance led to an initial stock drop of about 20% on September 25, 2025.
2. "Pull-Forward" Effect of Tariff Speculation. A key factor contributing to the weak Q2 performance was identified as a "pull-forward" of demand into the preceding fiscal quarter (Q1). CarMax indicated that an increase in sales during March and April 2025 was due to customers purchasing vehicles earlier to avoid potential price hikes resulting from anticipated auto tariffs. This accelerated demand in Q1 subsequently led to fewer customers and declining sales in Q2.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KMX Return | 8% | 38% | -53% | 26% | 7% | -52% | -56% |
| Peers Return | 45% | 44% | -7% | 48% | 13% | 5% | 244% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KMX Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 25% | 50% | 58% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 60% | 50% | 60% | 50% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KMX Max Drawdown | -50% | -1% | -57% | -8% | -12% | -62% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -59% | -3% | -23% | -1% | -14% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LAD, AN, PAG, GPI, ABG. See KMX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KMX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 178.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -56.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 143 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 172 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 369.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 687 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CVNA, PAG, AN, AAP, KAR
In The Past
CarMax's stock fell -64.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -64.0% loss requires a 178.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KMX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -1.6% |
| 10102025 | KMX | CarMax | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -10.1% | -10.1% | -28.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -1.6% |
| 10102025 | KMX | CarMax | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -10.1% | -10.1% | -28.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CarMax
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 227.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.0 |
| Rev LTM | 27,142 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,149 |
| FCF LTM | 561 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 293 |
| CFO LTM | 823 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 506 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.0 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 6.2 |
| P/E | 12.3 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 9.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 46.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -27.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/25/2025 | -20.1% | -19.3% | -24.4% |
| 6/20/2025 | 6.6% | 3.6% | -1.2% |
| 4/10/2025 | -17.0% | -19.9% | -17.4% |
| 12/19/2024 | 3.5% | 4.6% | -3.9% |
| 9/26/2024 | 5.0% | 1.3% | -2.6% |
| 6/21/2024 | 0.4% | 2.8% | 13.2% |
| 4/11/2024 | -9.2% | -13.6% | -10.4% |
| 12/21/2023 | 5.2% | 4.2% | -7.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 6.6% | 4.4% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -9.2% | -11.1% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 20.7% | 35.7% |
| Max Negative | -24.6% | -22.8% | -28.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 9262025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6262025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4112025 | 10-K 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1072025 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 9272024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6272024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4152024 | 10-K 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1052024 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9292023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6262023 | 10-Q 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4132023 | 10-K 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1062023 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 9302022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6272022 | 10-Q 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4142022 | 10-K 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1062022 | 10-Q 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |