Kennametal (KMT)
Market Price (11/2/2025): $21.95 | Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Kennametal (KMT)
Market Price (11/2/2025): $21.95
Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 7.1% | Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% | Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | ||
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 40% |
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 7.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 40% |
| Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% |
| Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.9% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
KMT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KMT Return | 1% | 1% | -31% | 10% | -4% | -6% | -30% |
| Peers Return | 7% | 13% | 5% | -2% | 19% | 11% | 66% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KMT Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 38% | 28% | 23% | 43% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KMT Max Drawdown | -59% | -7% | -42% | -4% | -11% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -3% | -13% | -15% | -5% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VMI, BRC, TRN, HUHU, INLF. See KMT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/31/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -51.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 105.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 241.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1181 days | 1480 days |
Compare to VMI, BRC, TRN, HUHU, INLF
In The Past
Kennametal's stock fell -51.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -51.4% loss requires a 105.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Kennametal Stock Up 7.8%, Buy Or Wait? | Return | ||
| KMT Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Kennametal Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 4.7% in 2025 and 6.3% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Kennametal (KMT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Kennametal (KMT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Kennametal (KMT) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Kennametal (KMT) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Kennametal vs. S&P500 Correlation | Correlation | ||
| Kennametal Price Volatility | Volatility | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Kennametal, Clean Harbors: Industrial Stocks To Play The Recovery | November 27th, 2020 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KMT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.8% | -5.8% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.8% |
| 05312019 | KMT | Kennametal | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.7% | -7.3% | -49.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.8% | -5.8% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.8% |
| 05312019 | KMT | Kennametal | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.7% | -7.3% | -49.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kennametal
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,071 |
| Op Inc LTM | 301 |
| FCF LTM | 136 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 162 |
| CFO LTM | 296 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 308 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.9 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 12.8 |
| P/E | 21.0 |
| P/CFO | 11.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.4% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2025 | -18.2% | -17.9% | -13.1% |
| 5/7/2025 | -0.3% | 12.8% | 11.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | -3.4% | -7.4% | -5.3% |
| 11/6/2024 | 17.5% | 11.1% | 5.6% |
| 8/7/2024 | 0.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.2% | 8.4% | 1.8% |
| 2/7/2024 | -2.4% | -3.1% | 1.9% |
| 11/1/2023 | -1.3% | -0.6% | 1.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 16 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -4.2% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 17.5% | 12.8% | 31.6% |
| Max Negative | -18.2% | -17.9% | -14.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8122024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11022021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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