KLA (KLAC)
Market Price (3/3/2026): $1529.0 | Market Cap: $200.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
KLA (KLAC)
Market Price (3/3/2026): $1529.0Market Cap: $200.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 42% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 118% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil | Key risksKLAC key risks include [1] its substantial revenue from China being threatened by U.S. Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Automation & Robotics, Advanced Materials, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 42% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Automation & Robotics, Advanced Materials, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 118% |
| Key risksKLAC key risks include [1] its substantial revenue from China being threatened by U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Financial Performance and Upbeat Guidance Drove Confidence.
KLA Corporation reported robust financial results for its fiscal first quarter of 2026 (ended September 30, 2025) on October 29, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations with revenues of $3.21 billion against an estimated $3.17 billion, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $8.81, exceeding the anticipated $8.60. The company also provided positive guidance for the fiscal second quarter of 2026 (ending December 2025), projecting revenues around $3.225 billion (±$150 million) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $8.70 (±$0.78). Subsequent to this, on January 29, 2026, KLA announced actual Q2 FY2026 revenues of $3.3 billion, exceeding its own guidance midpoint of $3.225 billion, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $8.85, also above its guidance midpoint of $8.70. This consistent outperformance and positive outlook contributed significantly to the stock's appreciation. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.90 per share payable March 3, 2026, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns.
2. Soaring AI-Driven Demand and Semiconductor Industry Growth Acted as a Major Catalyst.
The booming artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout has been a profound driver for KLA. The company's CEO, Rick Wallace, highlighted that AI remains a core driver of KLA's performance, given its industry-leading portfolio of solutions addressing challenges for AI compute in leading-edge foundry/logic, memory, and advanced packaging markets. The broader semiconductor industry is experiencing a surge, with global sales expected to reach a historic peak of $975 billion in 2026, fueled by the intensifying AI boom, with growth projected to accelerate to 26% in 2026. This strong macroeconomic tailwind directly benefited KLA, as its process control and yield management solutions are essential for the production of increasingly complex AI chips and memory components like DRAM and HBM, which are experiencing high demand and supply constraints.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.8% change in KLAC stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1173.94 | 1534.95 | 30.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,524 | 12,745 | 1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.8% | 35.8% | 5.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.5 | 44.2 | 21.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 132 | 131 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KLAC | 30.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.4% | 58.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | -2.5% | 64.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 76.6% change in KLAC stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 56.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 869.41 | 1534.95 | 76.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,156 | 12,745 | 4.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.4% | 35.8% | 7.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.3 | 44.2 | 56.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 132 | 131 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 76.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KLAC | 76.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.7% | 61.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 6.5% | 67.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 118.2% change in KLAC stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 703.51 | 1534.95 | 118.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,847 | 12,745 | 17.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.6% | 35.8% | 20.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.2 | 44.2 | 51.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 133 | 131 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 118.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KLAC | 118.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.5% | 70.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 24.3% | 77.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 315.9% change in KLAC stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 200.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 369.09 | 1534.95 | 315.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,484 | 12,745 | 21.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.8% | 35.8% | 5.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.7 | 44.2 | 200.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 141 | 131 | 7.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 315.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KLAC | 315.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.7% | 66.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 108.6% | 76.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KLAC Return | 68% | -11% | 56% | 9% | 94% | 26% | 522% |
| Peers Return | 66% | -39% | 74% | -2% | 51% | 36% | 253% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 0% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KLAC Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 33% | 65% | 48% | 62% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KLAC Max Drawdown | 0% | -38% | -5% | -6% | -8% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | -50% | -6% | -10% | -33% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMAT, LRCX, ONTO, VECO, MKSI. See KLAC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KLAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 87 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 309.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,790 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AMAT, LRCX, ONTO, VECO, MKSI
In The Past
KLA's stock fell -40.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -40.8% loss requires a 69.1% gain to breakeven.
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About KLA (KLAC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for KLA (KLAC):- KLA is like the John Deere for chip manufacturing, supplying the essential, complex equipment that produces advanced microchips.
- KLA is like the Zeiss for semiconductors, providing the ultra-precise inspection and metrology tools critical for making high-quality chips.
- KLA is like the Dolby Labs of microchip production, offering the indispensable process control technology that ensures chip quality and performance.
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```html- Wafer Inspection Systems: Equipment designed to detect defects and anomalies on semiconductor wafers throughout the manufacturing process.
- Reticle and Mask Inspection Systems: Tools used to inspect the photomasks and reticles, which are critical patterns used to print circuits on wafers, for defects.
- Metrology Systems: Advanced instruments that measure critical dimensions, film thickness, material properties, and other physical characteristics on wafers.
- Process Control Software & Analytics: Software solutions and analytics platforms that integrate data from inspection and metrology systems to optimize manufacturing processes and improve yield.
AI Analysis | Feedback
KLA Corporation (KLAC) primarily sells its products and services to other companies (B2B) in the semiconductor, data storage, and related advanced electronics manufacturing industries. KLA is a leading provider of process control and yield management solutions, making its customer base comprise the world's major chipmakers.
While KLA's annual filings (10-K) state that a significant portion of its revenue comes from a limited number of major customers (e.g., its largest customer accounted for 12-14% of total revenue in fiscal years 2021-2023), the company does not publicly disclose the specific names of these individual customers. Therefore, it is not possible to list their officially identified names from public disclosures.
However, based on KLA's market position and the nature of its advanced equipment, its major customers are widely understood to be the world's largest:
- Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs): Companies that design and manufacture their own semiconductors (e.g., Intel, Samsung).
- Pure-Play Foundries: Companies that specialize exclusively in manufacturing semiconductors designed by other companies (e.g., TSMC, Samsung Foundry).
- Memory Manufacturers: Companies focused on producing memory chips (e.g., DRAM, NAND flash) (e.g., Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix).
- Other advanced electronics manufacturers: Including wafer manufacturers and advanced packaging companies.
Based on industry analysis and market share in semiconductor manufacturing, the following leading companies in these categories are widely considered to be among KLA's primary customers:
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) – NYSE: TSM
- Intel Corporation (Intel) – NASDAQ: INTC
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (Samsung) – KRX: 005930
- Micron Technology, Inc. (Micron) – NASDAQ: MU
- SK Hynix Inc. (SK Hynix) – KRX: 000660
- Texas Instruments Incorporated (Texas Instruments) – NASDAQ: TXN
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Rick Wallace, President and Chief Executive Officer
Rick Wallace serves as the Chief Executive Officer and President of KLA, and is also a member of the company's Board of Directors. He joined KLA Instruments in 1988 as an applications engineer and has since held various general management positions throughout his more than 30-year tenure with the company. These roles include President and Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President of the Customer Group, and Executive Vice President of the Wafer Inspection Group. Wallace became President and CEO in January 2006. Earlier in his career, he held positions with Ultratech Stepper, Cypress Semiconductor, and Procter & Gamble. He currently serves on the Board of Directors of Marvell Technology, Inc. He previously served on the Board of Directors of Splunk, Proofpoint (which was acquired in 2021 by Thoma Bravo), and NetApp. Wallace also served on the Board of Directors of SEMI (Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International), including a term as its Chairman of the Board. He earned a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering from the University of Michigan and a master's degree in engineering management from Santa Clara University.
Bren Higgins, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Bren Higgins oversees KLA's worldwide finance and accounting organizations, global manufacturing, logistics and supply chain operations, business development (including mergers and acquisitions), workplace services, IT, and investor relations. He joined KLA in 1999 and has held numerous roles within the company, including multiple division controller assignments, group controller for KLA's largest business group, senior director of financial planning and analysis, and Vice President of corporate finance, where he was responsible for treasury, investor relations, and corporate business development. Higgins was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in July 2013. He earned his bachelor's degree from the University of California at Santa Barbara and his Master of Business Administration degree with a concentration in Finance from the University of California at Davis.
Ahmad Khan, President, Semiconductor Products and Customers
Ahmad Khan serves as President of KLA's combined product and customer organization, Semiconductor Products and Customers (Semi PC). He joined KLA in 2004, initially with responsibilities for business development. Over his tenure, he has moved through various management positions, including general manager of the Optical Films Metrology division, Group Vice President for the Patterning Division, Executive Vice President of the Global Products Group, and President of Semi PC. Before joining KLA, Khan held various project engineering and management roles at Applied Materials for nine years. He earned his bachelor's degree in electronics engineering technology from DeVry University.
Brian Lorig, Executive Vice President, KLA Global Services
Brian Lorig serves as Executive Vice President of the KLA Global Services organization, which is responsible for enabling customers to maintain high availability and performance of KLA tools and maximize the long-term value of their systems. He joined KLA in 1998 and has held a number of leadership positions in Manufacturing Operations and Service. These roles include Vice President of U.S. Manufacturing and Operations Group and Vice President of Global Support and Services Field Operations. Mr. Lorig earned his bachelor's degree in supply chain management from Arizona State University and his MBA from Santa Clara University.
MaryBeth Wilkinson, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary
MaryBeth Wilkinson serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary for KLA. In this role, she leads the global legal and compliance organization and provides guidance to the board of directors, executive team, and senior leaders. Her legal oversight responsibilities include risk mitigation, corporate governance, litigation, mergers and acquisitions, public disclosure and SEC reporting, investor relations, interactions with regulators and governments, top-level internal investigations, international trade, transactional affairs, and capital market transactions. Before joining KLA in September 2020, she was senior vice president, general counsel and corporate secretary of O-I Glass Inc., and prior to that, she was a Chicago-based partner in an international law firm. Ms. Wilkinson earned her bachelor's degree summa cum laude from Saint Mary's College, Notre Dame, Indiana, with a double major in economics and English writing.
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KLA Corporation (KLAC) faces several key business risks, primarily stemming from geopolitical dynamics and the inherent nature of the semiconductor industry.1. Geopolitical Tensions and Export Controls: KLA Corporation is significantly exposed to the ongoing trade tensions and export control regulations, particularly between the United States and China. China has historically been a substantial market for KLA, accounting for a large portion of its revenue. U.S. export controls, such as those implemented by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), restrict the sale of advanced semiconductor equipment to China, which is projected to reduce KLA's revenue share from China. These regulations create uncertainty and can materially impact the company's financial performance by limiting its access to a key market and disrupting global supply chains.
2. Semiconductor Industry Cyclicality: The semiconductor industry is known for its inherent cyclicality, characterized by periods of growth and contraction in capital spending by customers. KLA's financial performance is highly sensitive to these fluctuations, as reduced demand for electronic devices or tightened credit markets during downturns can lead customers to delay or cancel orders for KLA's equipment.
3. Customer Concentration: KLA relies on a concentrated customer base, including some of the world's largest chipmakers. This reliance means that a reduction in orders, changes in technology roadmaps, or a shift to a competitor's technology by any of these key customers could significantly impact KLA's revenue and operational stability.
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KLA Corporation (KLAC) operates in the global semiconductor and microelectronics industries, providing process control and yield management solutions. Its main products and services focus on metrology and inspection equipment, along with sophisticated data analytics and software solutions that are critical for semiconductor fabrication. The addressable markets for KLA's key products and services are as follows:- Process Control Market: KLA holds a dominant market share of approximately 56% in the global semiconductor process control market as of 2024. This market segment accounts for slightly over 10% of the entire global semiconductor equipment market.
- Overall Metrology and Inspection Market: KLA's market share in the global metrology and inspection segment has steadily grown, reaching nearly 63% by 2024.
- Optical Inspection Market: KLA's dominance is even more pronounced in the global optical inspection market, where it has maintained a market share well above 80%, approaching 90% in 2024.
- Advanced Packaging Market: KLA's revenue from advanced packaging is projected to exceed $850 million globally in 2025, an increase from $500 million in 2024. KLA is also anticipated to become the market leader in the global Advanced Wafer-Level Packaging (AWLP) market by 2025.
- Global Semiconductor Equipment Market (Wafer Fab Equipment - WFE): The global sales of semiconductor equipment are forecasted to reach $125.5 billion in 2025, representing a 7.4% increase. In 2024, the WFE market was in the mid to high $90 billion range. KLA aims to increase its WFE market share from 6% in 2021 to over 7.25% by 2026.
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KLA Corporation (KLAC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:
- Increased Investment in Leading-Edge Foundry/Logic and Memory: KLA anticipates revenue growth from increased investments in leading-edge foundry/logic and memory segments. This is primarily fueled by the strong demand for AI and premium mobile applications, driving more complex designs and higher-value wafer volumes.
- Growth in Advanced Packaging: Advanced packaging is a significant growth catalyst for KLA. The company expects advanced packaging revenue to exceed $925 million in calendar year 2025, representing approximately 70% year-over-year growth. This growth is driven by customer adoption of KLA's advanced packaging portfolio and the increasing complexity of chip designs, particularly for heterogeneous chip integration.
- AI as a Key Catalyst and Driver of Process Control Intensity: Artificial intelligence (AI) is a crucial enabler for KLA's business. The growing demand for AI chips necessitates higher process control intensity, which directly benefits KLA's solutions. KLA also leverages AI in its own products to enhance performance and reduce customer cost of ownership.
- Continued Strength and Expansion of the Services Business: KLA's service business has consistently demonstrated strong growth and resilience. Service revenue reached $745 million in the September quarter, up 6% sequentially and 16% year-over-year, highlighting its importance as a stable revenue stream.
- Outperformance of the Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) Market: KLA is confident in its ability to outperform the overall Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market growth. This outperformance is attributed to KLA's business momentum, expanding market share opportunities, and the increasing process control intensity required at the leading edge across all semiconductor segments.
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Share Repurchases
- KLA executed significant share repurchases, with annual buybacks totaling $3.968 billion in 2022, $1.312 billion in 2023, and $1.736 billion in 2024.
- The company authorized a new $6 billion share repurchase program in June 2022, including a $3 billion Accelerated Share Repurchase completed by December 2022. An additional $5 billion share repurchase authorization was announced in April 2025.
- As of September 30, 2023, $3.45 billion was available for repurchase under the stock repurchase program, with approximately $457 million remaining as of March 31, 2025, before the new $5 billion authorization.
Share Issuance
- KLA's share repurchase programs are partly intended to mitigate the dilutive impact from equity incentive plans and shares issued in connection with its Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP).
- The number of shares outstanding has generally seen a decline over the past few years, with 0.134 billion shares outstanding in 2025, representing a 1.79% decline from 2024.
- As of October 27, 2025, there were 131.39 million shares of common stock outstanding.
Capital Expenditures
- KLA Corporation's capital expenditure (capex) for fiscal year 2025 was -$340.21 million.
- The company continues to prioritize and plans to increase R&D investments to drive market leadership and support technology and product development roadmaps.
- KLA's business performance is significantly influenced by the capital expenditures of semiconductor and electronic device manufacturers.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How KLA Stock Gained 90% | 02/20/2026 | |
| What Is Happening With KLA Stock? | 02/18/2026 | |
| KLA Stock May Have More Upside | 02/10/2026 | |
| KLA Stock (-15%): Guidance Disappoints, Sparks Profit-Taking | 01/31/2026 | |
| Why KLA Stock Jumped 90%? | 01/31/2026 | |
| KLAC Stock Surges 12% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Record Earnings Beat | 01/30/2026 | |
| KLA Stock Soars 24% In A Single Month, Wait For A Dip To Buy The Stock | 01/22/2026 | |
| How KLA Stock Gained 110% | 01/15/2026 | |
| Is KLA Stock Outperforming Its Rivals? | 01/13/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Why LRCX, KLAC Could Outperform Teradyne Stock | 02/26/2026 | |
| KLA Stock Surged 100%, Here’s Why | 02/18/2026 | |
| KLA Stock May Still Have Room to Run | 02/10/2026 | |
| Better Value & Growth: LRCX, KLAC Lead Teradyne Stock | 02/04/2026 | |
| Momentum Meets Value: KLA Stock Could Be A Good Buy | 01/31/2026 |
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | KLAC | KLA | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 39.1% | 39.1% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | KLAC | KLA | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 32.8% | 53.5% | -13.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 237.63 |
| Mkt Cap | 109.0 |
| Rev LTM | 8,288 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,952 |
| FCF LTM | 2,454 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,014 |
| CFO LTM | 2,723 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,237 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 109.0 |
| P/S | 10.6 |
| P/EBIT | 36.6 |
| P/E | 45.4 |
| P/CFO | 35.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 47.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 118.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 127.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 190.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 48.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 105.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 113.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 133.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Process Control | 8,734 | 9,324 | 7,925 | 5,735 | 4,745 |
| Printed Circuit Boards (PCB) and Component Inspection | 552 | 632 | 832 | 813 | 727 |
| Specialty Semiconductor Process | 529 | 543 | 457 | 369 | 330 |
| Corporate allocations and effects of changes in foreign currency exchange rates | -3 | -3 | -2 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 4 | |||
| Total | 9,812 | 10,496 | 9,212 | 6,919 | 5,806 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,534.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 201.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,419.46 | $1,096.02 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.1% | 40.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 54.2% | 47.9% |
| Downside Capture | 264.45 | 176.92 |
| Upside Capture | 436.17 | 230.18 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 58.3% | 70.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.43 | 2.93 | 3.00 | 2.59 | 1.74 | 1.86 |
| Up Beta | 4.60 | 2.58 | 2.87 | 2.05 | 1.66 | 1.81 |
| Down Beta | -0.15 | 1.39 | 2.08 | 2.06 | 1.52 | 1.56 |
| Up Capture | 256% | 579% | 565% | 612% | 501% | 2140% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 38 | 74 | 148 | 419 |
| Down Capture | 268% | 259% | 237% | 201% | 137% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 50 | 103 | 333 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KLAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | 121.9% | 47.8% | 1.82 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 26.1% | 27.3% | 0.83 | 77.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.4% | 19.3% | 0.75 | 70.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 86.5% | 25.7% | 2.41 | 17.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.5% | 17.1% | 0.73 | 30.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.1% | 16.6% | 0.24 | 37.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -22.3% | 45.0% | -0.43 | 34.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KLAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | 38.4% | 42.9% | 0.89 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 16.9% | 24.8% | 0.62 | 78.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 70.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.9% | 17.2% | 1.14 | 14.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.1% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 18.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 36.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.2% | 56.8% | 0.33 | 28.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KLAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | 39.3% | 40.6% | 0.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.4% | 24.2% | 0.85 | 77.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 71.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.6% | 15.6% | 0.84 | 9.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.9% | 17.6% | 0.42 | 21.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.5% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 42.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 65.1% | 66.8% | 1.05 | 20.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/29/2026 | -15.2% | -21.0% | -8.8% |
| 10/29/2025 | -1.7% | -0.7% | -6.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | 0.9% | 3.8% | -0.6% |
| 4/30/2025 | -3.8% | -1.2% | 8.0% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.6% | 2.6% | -6.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | -3.7% | -3.2% | -6.2% |
| 7/24/2024 | 0.9% | 8.9% | 5.8% |
| 4/25/2024 | 4.9% | 1.4% | 16.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 16 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 4.5% | 11.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -3.2% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.0% | 15.7% | 33.9% |
| Max Negative | -15.2% | -21.0% | -11.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Higgins, Bren D | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 1237.01 | 2,254 | 2,788,221 | 39,775,314 | Form |
| 2 | Wallace, Richard P | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 1203.10 | 10,803 | 12,997,089 | 97,704,964 | Form |
| 3 | Khan, Ahmad A | President, Semi. Prod. & Cust. | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 900.00 | 4,564 | 4,107,600 | 20,527,427 | Form |
| 4 | Khan, Ahmad A | President, Semi. Prod. & Cust. | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 881.50 | 13,716 | 12,090,654 | 24,128,640 | Form |
| 5 | Higgins, Bren D | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 878.53 | 2,301 | 2,021,498 | 30,228,812 | Form |
KLAC Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 1.88x is attractive. While the raw skew is balanced, the high probability assigned to the upside scenario (driven by a widening moat and strong secular AI trends) makes the risk-reward profile favorable. The investment thesis hinges on the durable, multi-year nature of the AI-driven semiconductor cycle, which outweighs the near-term risk of a cyclical peak, justifying an Accumulate rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityKLA operates in the highly cyclical semiconductor capital equipment industry. Its revenue is tied to the capital expenditure cycles of major chipmakers. The business exhibits 'Commodity' characteristics in that its fortune is linked to the broader supply/demand balance for semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Applying 'Cyclical Inversion' is critical; valuation must be assessed based on normalized, mid-cycle earnings power, not peak or trough results.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for KLA is the increasing capital intensity of process control for manufacturing next-generation semiconductors. As chipmakers transition to sub-3nm nodes and complex 3D packaging (like HBM) to serve the AI market, the need for KLA's yield management and inspection equipment grows non-linearly. Errors become exponentially more expensive, making KLA's technology indispensable, allowing it to outgrow the broader wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market.
- Semiconductor Process Control segment grew 9.0% YoY, indicating strong demand for its core offering.
- Management cites a 'strengthening backlog into late FY 2026' and 'accelerated customer momentum' driven by the AI infrastructure buildout.
- KLA is dominant in the highest-value customer segments: 'Leading-Edge Foundry R&D' and 'High-Volume Memory Manufacturer', which are the epicenters of the AI-driven capex cycle.
- The global semiconductor industry is projected to grow 26% in 2026, providing a strong secular tailwind.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk is a cyclical downturn triggered by a pause or reduction in capital expenditures by KLA's key customers (e.g., TSMC, Samsung, Intel) after the current, unprecedented wave of AI-related spending. Mixed signals, such as Intel's flat-to-down 2026 capex guidance, suggest the cycle may be front-loaded, leading to a period of 'digestion' where orders decelerate sharply.
- Key risk identified is 'Major Customer CapEx Digestion/Re-evaluation', with a potential timing of the next 30-90 days based on customer earnings calls.
- Intel, a key customer, has guided 2026 capex to be 'flat to down slightly'.
- The memory market is experiencing an unsustainable 90-95% QoQ price increase for DRAM, which historically incentivizes over-investment and leads to a subsequent bust cycle and capex cuts.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Process Control Revenue Growth (YoY) | Maintain >10% | This is the core growth engine (91% of revenue). Deceleration below double-digits, especially if Service Revenue growth also slows, would be the first sign that the cycle is turning. |
| Forward 12-Month CapEx Guidance from TSMC, Intel, Samsung | Positive or Stable YoY Growth | This is the most critical leading indicator. Any mention of 'capital efficiency', 'tool reuse', or downward revisions to capex plans would be a major red flag for future equipment orders. |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Stays above 61.5% | Management has guided for a 75-100 basis point headwind from DRAM costs. A dip below their guided floor could signal more severe supply chain issues or a loss of pricing power, impacting profitability. |
The AI Super-Cycle vs. Cyclical Digestion
BULL VIEW
Bulls bet the AI-driven capex boom is a multi-year 'Super-Cycle', justifying strong backlogs and high-single-digit growth.
CORE TENSION
Whether secular AI demand can sustain growth and pricing power against historical semiconductor cyclicality, rising costs, and geopolitical headwinds.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The current NEUTRAL sentiment is supported by the conflict between accelerating Service Revenue (+18% YoY) and decelerating core Semiconductor Process Control revenue (+9% YoY), alongside guided gross margin pressure from DRAM costs.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see a classic cyclical peak, anticipating a capex 'digestion' period, margin compression from DRAM costs, and China risks.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Next 30-90 Days | Major Customer (TSMC, Intel, Samsung) Earnings Calls Watch: Forward-looking capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance for FY2026 and FY2027. |
Late April 2026 | KLA FY26 Q3 Earnings Call Watch: Non-GAAP Gross Margin guidance; commentary on the impact of DRAM component costs. |
Next 2 Quarters | Memory Pricing & Inventory Data Release Watch: Deceleration in DRAM/NAND spot and contract price momentum via market data sources (e.g., TrendForce). |
Anytime | US Commerce Dept. (BIS) Policy Update Watch: Any revision to the 'case-by-case' license review policy for AI semiconductor exports to China. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-09-10 | Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference Details: KLA's participation in a major tech conference provided an update on its strategic positioning. The modest stock gain reflects continued investor confidence following the engagement. | Slight 1.6% gain $916.19 -> $931.06 |
2025-10-29 | Q1 FY2026 Earnings Release Details: KLA reported a beat on both revenue and EPS for its first fiscal quarter, continuing its long streak of outperformance and confirming strong execution. An Investor Day was also announced for March 12, 2026. | Rose significantly by 2.4% $1204.01 -> $1233.21 |
2025-11-05 | Annual Meeting of Stockholders Details: The company held its annual stockholder meeting. The positive stock reaction suggests routine proceedings with no negative surprises, maintaining investor confidence in the company's governance and strategy. | Rose significantly by 2.8% $1191.49 -> $1225.04 |
2025-12-03 | UBS Global Technology and AI Conference Details: KLA presented at the UBS conference, likely reinforcing its strong position in the AI ecosystem and contributing to positive investor sentiment during a period of strong market performance for the stock. | Modest 1.8% gain $1189.86 -> $1211.75 |
2026-01-29 | Q2 FY2026 Earnings Release Details: KLA beat revenue and EPS estimates, but the stock fell sharply on concerns around wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) growth commentary and softer than expected free cash flow. | Stock plummeted -15.2% $1684.71 -> $1427.94 |
2026-02-05 | KLA Declares Regular Cash Dividend Details: KLA announced a regular quarterly cash dividend. The strong positive market reaction suggests high investor confidence in the company's capital return program and cash flow generation. | Stock surged +8.4% $1331.03 -> $1442.95 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
The stock's 'Explosive' and 'Spiking' volatility profile (4.55x S&P 500) mandates a risk-managed approach. While the moat is strong and visibility is high, the Neutral sentiment prevents a max allocation. This is a classic Scenario 3, capping size to manage drawdowns.
Diversification Alternatives
ASML
INDUSTRYOffers a monopolistic position in EUV lithography, a critical industry bottleneck with a multi-year backlog, providing superior long-term visibility and a stronger competitive moat compared to KLAC.
TER
INDUSTRYOperates in the less volatile Automated Test Equipment (ATE) market, which is more tied to chip design complexity and volume than the highly cyclical front-end wafer fab equipment (WFE) construction cycle that drives KLAC.
KLA is evolving from a cyclical Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) provider to the indispensable quality gatekeeper for the AI era, where increasing chip complexity and advanced packaging create a structural tailwind for its high-margin process control tools.
Filter all news through the lens of process control intensity: does this news increase the number of inspection/metrology steps required per wafer, especially for AI-related chips (logic, memory, packaging)?
Customer capex announcements for leading-edge logic (<3nm) or High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM); reports of yield challenges at new process nodes (e.g., Gate-All-Around); market share gains in advanced packaging inspection; WFE market forecasts revised upwards.
Significant cuts to capex by top 3 customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel); breakthroughs in yield management by competitors (Applied Materials, Onto Innovation); tightened US export restrictions to China impacting a significant portion of revenue.
Broad semiconductor cycle fluctuations (already priced in); quarterly regional revenue mix shifts (concentration in Taiwan, China, Korea is normal); single-product announcements without quantifiable market impact.
Repricing Catalyst
The transition to Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistors and 3D packaging for AI accelerators is structurally increasing the capital intensity of process control. This secular trend is driving demand for KLA's high-margin inspection and metrology tools, supporting revenue growth and margin stability even amid broader market cyclicality.
Semiconductor Process Control
$12.0B TTM (91.1% of Total) · 62.6% MarginWhat It Is
Wafer inspection systems, reticle inspection systems, metrology solutions (e.g., Surfscan), and data analytics software used to find and analyze microscopic defects during chip manufacturing.
Who Pays & How
Major semiconductor fabs like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel pay for KLA's tools because they are essential for achieving high yields on complex, leading-edge manufacturing processes. The high cost of a KLA tool is justified by preventing the loss of millions of dollars in scrapped wafers, creating high switching costs.
Competition
Specialty Semiconductor, PCB & Display
$1.1B TTM (8.9% of Total) · 62.6% MarginWhat It Is
Inspection, testing, and measurement equipment for printed circuit boards (PCBs), flat panel displays (FPDs), and specialty semiconductors. Much of this capability came from the Orbotech acquisition.
Who Pays & How
Manufacturers of electronics components for various end markets including automotive and consumer electronics, who require these tools for quality and yield control.
Competition
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