Hertz Global (HTZ)
Market Price (2/22/2026): $4.65 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Hertz Global (HTZ)
Market Price (2/22/2026): $4.65Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -677 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.9% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.41, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1281% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, EV Charging Infrastructure, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -102% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -75% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 112% | ||
| Key risksHTZ key risks include [1] massive depreciation charges and a class-action lawsuit stemming from its mismanaged electric vehicle strategy, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, EV Charging Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.41, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -677 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.9% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1281% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -102% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -75% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 112% |
| Key risksHTZ key risks include [1] massive depreciation charges and a class-action lawsuit stemming from its mismanaged electric vehicle strategy, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Negative Q4 2025 Outlook and Analyst Skepticism.
Despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025, with an EPS of $0.12 against an estimated loss of $0.02 and revenue of $2.48 billion exceeding forecasts of $2.42 billion, Hertz's stock plunged 11.2% the following day. This sharp decline was triggered by comments from Chief Commercial Officer Sandeep Dube, who warned of "softness" in the upcoming fourth quarter due to a seasonal slowdown in leisure travel and the impact of a government shutdown. BofA Securities also maintained an "Underperform" rating on the stock.
2. Financial Impact of Electric Vehicle (EV) Fleet Divestment and Depreciation.
Hertz's ongoing strategic decision to reduce its electric vehicle fleet continued to weigh heavily on its financial performance and investor sentiment. The company planned to book approximately $245 million in charges in Q4 2025 related to depreciation expenses from the EV sales. This divestment was driven by significantly higher collision repair costs for EVs, which were double that of internal combustion engine vehicles, and accelerated depreciation caused by price cuts from EV manufacturers like Tesla.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.1% change in HTZ stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.13 | 4.67 | -9.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,614 | 8,516 | -1.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | -7.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 309 | 311 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HTZ | -9.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 15.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 14.3% | 19.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.2% change in HTZ stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.41 | 4.67 | -27.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,782 | 8,516 | -3.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | -24.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 307 | 311 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HTZ | -27.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 11.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 17.1% | 20.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.0% change in HTZ stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.13 | 4.67 | 13.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,193 | 8,516 | -7.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 23.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 307 | 311 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HTZ | 13.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 15.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 29.4% | 20.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -74.1% change in HTZ stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -77.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.02 | 4.67 | -74.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,599 | 8,516 | -1.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 0.2 | -77.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 355 | 311 | 14.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -74.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HTZ | -74.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 23.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 81.6% | 27.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HTZ Return | -5% | -38% | -32% | -65% | 40% | -9% | -82% |
| Peers Return | 136% | -3% | 36% | 1% | 16% | 1% | 267% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 0% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HTZ Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 25% | 50% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 45% | 57% | 52% | 50% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HTZ Max Drawdown | -20% | -41% | -47% | -75% | -10% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -27% | -8% | -20% | -21% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CAR, R, PAG, UHAL, URI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HTZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 231.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to CAR, R, PAG, UHAL, URI
In The Past
Hertz Global's stock fell -69.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -69.8% loss requires a 231.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Hertz Global (HTZ)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. The Marriott or Hilton of car rentals.
2. Essentially, Uber or Lyft, but you rent the car to drive yourself for days or weeks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the major products and services of Hertz Global:- Hertz Vehicle Rental: Provides premium and general car and truck rental services to business and leisure customers globally.
- Dollar Vehicle Rental: Offers value-oriented car and truck rental services.
- Thrifty Vehicle Rental: Delivers affordable car and truck rental services.
- Used Car Sales: Sells retired vehicles from its rental fleet directly to consumers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hertz Global (symbol: HTZ) primarily serves individuals for their transportation needs. While the company maintains significant business-to-business relationships (e.g., corporate accounts, insurance partnerships, ride-share programs), the ultimate consumer of the rental service is almost always an individual.
Therefore, Hertz's major customer categories are:
- Leisure Travelers: Individuals renting vehicles for vacations, holidays, weekend trips, and other personal travel needs. This segment often rents cars at airports or tourist destinations.
- Business Travelers: Individuals renting vehicles for work-related purposes, such as attending meetings, conferences, client visits, or temporary assignments. These rentals are frequently booked through corporate accounts or direct business programs.
- Local Market and Replacement Rentals: Individuals who need temporary transportation in their local area. This includes customers whose personal vehicles are undergoing maintenance or repair (often facilitated by insurance companies), those needing a vehicle for a specific task (e.g., moving, special event), and drivers participating in ride-sharing programs (e.g., Uber, Lyft) who rent vehicles for their work.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Tesla (TSLA)
- Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (PSNY)
- General Motors Company (GM)
- Ford Motor Company (F)
- Stellantis N.V. (STLA)
- Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Gil West, Chief Executive Officer
Gil West has served as CEO of Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. since April 2024. Prior to joining Hertz, he was the Chief Operating Officer at Cruise, General Motors' autonomous vehicle subsidiary. He also spent a decade as Chief Operating Officer of Delta Air Lines, where he was responsible for global operations and a workforce of 70,000 employees. West holds an MBA from National University and a BS in Mechanical Engineering from North Carolina State University.
Scott Haralson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Scott Haralson was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. by the end of June 2024. He brings extensive financial experience from previous executive roles at Spirit Airlines, Dish Network, and Frontier Airlines.
Mike Moore, Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer
Mike Moore has served as Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer since September 2025, having joined Hertz in July 2024 as Executive Vice President Technical Operations. He is responsible for all aspects of Hertz's fleet operations and has over 25 years of experience in fleet operations and maintenance, with expertise in operational oversight and implementing process improvements.
Chris Berg, Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer
Chris Berg joined Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. as Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer in January 2025. In this role, he oversees administrative operations including procurement, real estate, facilities management, security, data science and analytics, technology, and human resources. Before joining Hertz, Berg spent over 20 years at Home Depot, most recently as President of the Western Division, where he oversaw operations for 500 stores and 100,000 employees. He holds an MBA from Babson F.W. Olin Graduate School of Business and a BS in Business Administration from Babson College.
Doria Holbrook, Executive Vice President Mobility
Doria Holbrook assumed the role of Executive Vice President Mobility in January 2025, leading Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.'s rideshare rental programs and strategic partnerships. Her career spans nearly two decades in operational and innovation roles, with prior executive experience at Flexport (VP of Global Supply Chain Partnerships), Cruise (VP Delivery Business Unit), TikTok, and Amazon. Holbrook began her career at McKinsey & Company and holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Hertz Global (HTZ) include:
-
Residual Value and Depreciation Risk, especially with Electric Vehicles (EVs): Hertz has faced considerable financial challenges due to vehicle depreciation, particularly stemming from its strategy to integrate electric vehicles into its fleet. The company has incurred significant write-downs and unexpected costs related to its EV fleet, with falling used car prices further exacerbating depreciation charges. A class action lawsuit has also been initiated, alleging misleading financial statements concerning vehicle values and EV demand.
-
High Debt Levels and Profitability Concerns: Hertz carries a substantial amount of long-term debt, with reported figures reaching billions of dollars. Despite recent improvements in adjusted corporate EBITDA, the company has struggled with consistent profitability, evidenced by negative operating and net margins. Financial health indicators, such as the Altman Z-Score, have placed Hertz in a "distress zone," indicating a potential risk of bankruptcy.
-
Cyclical Demand Risk and Market Competition: The car rental industry is inherently sensitive to economic fluctuations and changes in travel patterns, which can directly impact rental volume and pricing. Hertz also faces ongoing competition from traditional rivals as well as emerging mobility solutions like rideshare and peer-to-peer rental services. Additionally, supply chain disruptions can affect fleet availability and operational efficiency.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Challenges with Electric Vehicle (EV) Transition and Fleet Management
Evidence: Hertz made a substantial investment in electric vehicles (primarily Teslas and Polestars) with a goal of having a significant portion of its fleet be EV. However, in January 2024, Hertz announced it would sell approximately 20,000 EVs from its U.S. fleet (about one-third of its EV fleet) and reinvest in gasoline-powered vehicles. The company cited higher-than-anticipated repair costs for EVs, particularly due to collision damage, and lower-than-expected depreciation which impacted resale values. This decision reflects a significant operational and financial challenge in managing an EV fleet.
Reasoning: This strategic reversal by Hertz indicates that the shift to an EV fleet presents clear emerging threats related to asset depreciation, maintenance expenses, and potentially lower demand or profitability compared to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. Higher repair costs directly impact profitability, and volatile residual values can lead to unexpected losses on vehicle sales, both of which are critical to a car rental company's financial health. The difficulty in scaling charging infrastructure and ensuring a seamless customer experience for EV rentals also presents ongoing operational hurdles.
2. Growing Adoption of Peer-to-Peer Car Sharing Platforms
Evidence: Platforms like Turo have experienced significant growth in user base and market share. Turo, valued in the billions, offers a decentralized model where individuals rent out their personal vehicles directly to others. Its expansion into numerous cities and increasing brand recognition demonstrate its emergence as a viable alternative to traditional car rental services.
Reasoning: Peer-to-peer car sharing directly competes with Hertz's core business by offering a wider variety of vehicles (including unique or luxury cars), often more flexible pickup/drop-off locations (e.g., directly from the owner's driveway), and competitive pricing. This model appeals to a segment of consumers looking for convenience, specific vehicle types, or localized rentals outside of traditional airport locations, potentially eroding Hertz's market share, particularly in non-airport, short-term, or specialized rental segments. The ease of access and diverse offerings provided by these platforms could attract customers who previously relied on traditional rental agencies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The main product and service for Hertz Global (symbol: HTZ) is vehicle rental, including short-term and long-term car rental services for individual and corporate customers, operating under brands such as Hertz, Dollar, and Thrifty. Hertz also generates revenue from vehicle sales and value-added services like insurance and roadside assistance.
Addressable Market Sizes for Vehicle Rental Services:
Global Market
- The global car rental market was estimated at approximately USD 124.31 billion to USD 149.87 billion in 2024.
- Projections indicate the global market is expected to grow to between USD 252.94 billion and USD 347.23 billion by 2030-2032, with Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) ranging from 10.5% to 13.70% during the forecast periods.
U.S. Market
- The U.S. car rental market was valued at approximately USD 35.2 billion in 2024.
- This market is projected to reach approximately USD 54.94 billion to USD 70.81 billion by 2032-2033, growing at CAGRs between 5% and 7.73% from 2025 to 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hertz Global (HTZ) is focused on several key initiatives to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, as outlined in recent earnings reports and strategic commentary:
- Fleet Transformation and Optimization: Hertz has completed a significant fleet refresh, with over 70% of its U.S. rental fleet now 12 months old or newer. This has contributed to record-high utilization rates, exceeding 84% in Q3 2025, the highest since 2018. The company's "Buy Right, Hold Right, Sell Right" strategy, aimed at disciplined fleet management and reducing depreciation per unit (DPU) to below $300 through 2026, is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, indirectly supporting revenue growth by optimizing asset deployment.
- Expansion of Hertz Car Sales and Digital Retail Partnerships: Hertz is diversifying its revenue streams by expanding its Hertz Car Sales platform, including digital e-commerce partnerships with companies like Cox Automotive and Amazon Autos. This initiative is designed to generate significant incremental margin benefits per vehicle compared to traditional wholesale channels. The "rent-to-buy" program, which boasts a 70% conversion rate, further demonstrates the potential for substantial revenue generation outside of core rentals.
- Growth in Mobility Segment and Off-Airport Rentals: The company is strategically positioning itself as a broader mobility platform, with a focus on expanding its presence in the mobility segment, including ride-share partnerships, and growing its off-airport rental locations. Hertz is targeting a 10%-20% growth range in its mobility segment and anticipates mid-single-digit transaction day growth for 2026, indicating a shift towards diversified service offerings beyond traditional airport rentals.
- Improved Customer Experience and International Market Strength: Hertz has reported a nearly 50% year-over-year increase in its North American Net Promoter Score (NPS), indicating a significant improvement in customer satisfaction. This enhanced customer experience is expected to foster loyalty and repeat business. Furthermore, the company has observed a strong pricing environment in its international segments, which is contributing to robust revenue per day (RPD) and revenue per unit (RPU) gains globally.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Hertz Global Holdings authorized a share repurchase program of up to $2.0 billion on November 29, 2021.
- In November 2021, the company planned to repurchase 10.3 million shares for $300 million using cash on hand as part of an upsized public offering by selling stockholders.
- Post-bankruptcy, Hertz reportedly mismanaged approximately $3.5 billion in cash flows by repurchasing shares.
Share Issuance
- Hertz emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in June 2021 with a $5.9 billion infusion of equity capital from new investors, including $2.781 billion in direct common stock investments.
- In September 2025, Hertz's subsidiary completed an offering of $425 million in 5.500% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2030, which are exchangeable into common stock.
Inbound Investments
- Hertz received a $5.9 billion equity capital infusion from new investors, including Knighthead Capital Management and Certares Management, upon its emergence from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in June 2021.
- In April 2025, Pershing Square made an activist investment in Hertz, controlling 4% of its shares or 20% of total return swaps, which was positively received by investors.
Outbound Investments
- No significant outbound investments in other companies were identified within the last 3-5 years.
Capital Expenditures
- Hertz's capital expenditures were approximately $5.6 billion in 2020, $7.2 billion in 2021, $10.7 billion in 2022, $9.7 billion in 2023, and are forecast at $10.6 billion for 2024 and $8.4 billion for 2025.
- The primary focus of these expenditures is the vehicle fleet, with a strategy of "Buy Right, Hold Right, Sell Right" to acquire vehicles at favorable prices, manage fleet composition, and maximize residual values.
- In October 2021, Hertz announced plans to buy 100,000 Tesla vehicles for fleet electrification, but by June 2025, it had sold much of its Tesla fleet to switch to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles due to high depreciation.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Hertz Global Stock | 11/05/2025 | |
| How Low Can Hertz Global Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hertz Global (HTZ) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Hertz Global (HTZ) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| HTZ Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Where Does Hertz Global Stock Rank Among Competitors? | 11/05/2025 | |
| Hertz Global Stock To $4? | 11/05/2025 | |
| Is Hertz Global Stock Outperforming Its Rivals? | 11/05/2025 | |
| Hertz Global Stock To $5? | 11/05/2025 | |
| Why Is Hertz Stock Up 3x? | 06/08/2020 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to HTZ.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01302026 | FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.1% | -5.1% | -5.1% |
| 01302026 | PAYC | Paycom Software | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.0% | -7.0% | -11.9% |
| 01302026 | HTZ | Hertz Global | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 01232026 | PAYX | Paychex | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.5% | -11.5% | -13.3% |
| 01022026 | CPRT | Copart | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.7% | -0.7% | -2.8% |
| 07312025 | HTZ | Hertz Global | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -20.7% | -21.4% | -24.3% |
| 01312025 | HTZ | Hertz Global | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 45.0% | 18.6% | -20.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 131.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.5 |
| Rev LTM | 12,045 |
| Op Inc LTM | 860 |
| FCF LTM | -572 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1,004 |
| CFO LTM | 2,220 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,270 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -12.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -16.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.5 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 7.7 |
| P/E | 14.8 |
| P/CFO | 4.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -10.0% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 1.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.67 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/09/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -46.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $5.28 | $5.93 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -11.6% | -21.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 61.1% | 112.7% |
| Downside Capture | 272.07 | 104.47 |
| Upside Capture | 153.71 | 99.91 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 44.4% | 15.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.72 | 2.36 | 0.67 | 0.35 | 0.84 | 1.26 |
| Up Beta | 8.64 | 8.73 | 2.04 | 0.50 | 1.27 | 1.37 |
| Down Beta | 1.00 | 1.37 | -0.81 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.59 |
| Up Capture | 169% | 138% | 97% | 9% | 101% | 137% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 17 | 23 | 52 | 107 | 334 |
| Down Capture | 345% | 180% | 132% | 89% | 100% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 24 | 38 | 72 | 138 | 404 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HTZ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTZ | 5.2% | 112.7% | 0.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 29.2% | 19.2% | 1.20 | 19.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 19.4% | 0.53 | 15.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.5% | 25.6% | 2.15 | 5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 16.9% | 0.25 | 8.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.1% | 16.7% | 0.24 | 25.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.7% | 44.9% | -0.65 | 15.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HTZ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTZ | -29.0% | 77.5% | -0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 16.1% | 17.2% | 0.76 | 33.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 31.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.1% | 1.08 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 11.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 33.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.4% | 57.1% | 0.35 | 16.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HTZ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTZ | -15.7% | 77.5% | -0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 15.8% | 19.8% | 0.70 | 33.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 17.9% | 0.77 | 31.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.8% | 15.6% | 0.79 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 11.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.0% | 20.7% | 0.30 | 33.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.0% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 16.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 36.2% | 27.1% | 4.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | 7.5% | -3.4% | -1.8% |
| 5/13/2025 | 1.5% | 12.2% | 5.6% |
| 2/13/2025 | -8.5% | 5.6% | -10.4% |
| 11/12/2024 | 8.6% | 23.4% | 31.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | -7.6% | -11.3% | -21.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -19.3% | -22.9% | -17.6% |
| 2/6/2024 | 8.9% | 5.7% | -11.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 8.6% | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| Median Negative | -9.6% | -10.4% | -10.9% |
| Max Positive | 36.2% | 27.1% | 33.2% |
| Max Negative | -19.3% | -22.9% | -21.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/12/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leef, Eric | EVP, Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 5.67 | 21,458 | 121,725 | 2,260,673 | Form |
| 2 | Leef, Eric | EVP, Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 5192025 | 5.78 | 42,917 | 247,880 | 2,425,697 | Form |
| 3 | Leef, Eric | EVP, Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 3052025 | 4.28 | 21,766 | 93,101 | 2,046,900 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.