Guess? (GES)
Market Price (10/7/2025): $16.825 | Market Cap: $866.5 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Guess? (GES)
Market Price (10/7/2025): $16.825
Market Cap: $866.5 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.8% | Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -36% | Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 163% |
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -36% |
| Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 163% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
GES Stock
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GES Return | 3% | 7% | -9% | 18% | -30% | 28% | 7% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 20% | -21% | 18% | 23% | 8% | 55% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GES Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 25% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 43% | 30% | 42% | 45% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GES Max Drawdown | -82% | -11% | -37% | -15% | -32% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -1% | -38% | -18% | -11% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TPR, RL, AEO, UA, BRIA. See GES Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/6/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
| Event | GES | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 542 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -83.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 499.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 296 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -47.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 557 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 417.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Guess?'s stock fell -53.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -53.1% loss requires a 113.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Guess? (GES)
Guess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes, and licenses lifestyle collections of apparel and accessories for men, women, and children. It operates through five segments: Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia, and Licensing. The company's clothing collection includes jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, activewear, knitwear, and intimate apparel. It also grants licenses to design, manufacture, and distribute various products that complement its apparel lines, such as eyewear, watches, handbags, footwear, kids' and infants' apparel, outerwear, fragrance, jewelry, and other fashion accessories, as well as to wholesale partners to operate and sell products through licensed retail stores. The company markets its products under the GUESS, GUESS?, GUESS U.S.A., GUESS Jeans, GUESS? and Triangle Design, MARCIANO, Question Mark and Triangle Design, a stylized G and a stylized M, GUESS Kids, Baby GUESS, YES, G by GUESS, GUESS by MARCIANO, and Gc brand names. It sells its products through direct-to-consumer, wholesale, and licensing distribution channels. As of January 29, 2022, the company directly operated 1,068 retail stores in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. Its partner's distributors operated an additional 563 retail stores worldwide. The company also offers its products through its retail websites. Guess?, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| GES Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Guess? Market Price | Market Price | ||
| Guess? (GES) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Guess? (GES) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Guess? (GES) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Guess? (GES) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Guess? vs. S&P500 Correlation | Correlation | ||
| Guess? Price Volatility | Volatility | ||
| Will You Be Comfortable Buying Guess? Stock? | Return | ||
| Guess? vs. Ralph Lauren: With Return Forecast Of 25%, Guess? Is A Better Bet | Peer Comparison | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Guess Stock Skyrockets 26% As Privatization Deal Unfolds, But Is the Risk Too High? | August 21st, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: GES, SRRK, NESR | Losers: CLDX, LZB, OPEN | August 21st, 2025 | ||
| Will Q1 Results Move Guess Stock Up? | May 27th, 2025 | ||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Guess Stock | April 17th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Happening With Guess Stock? | March 18th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past trade ideas related to GES and Apparel Retail.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -9.0% |
| 09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -0.2% |
| 09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.8% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| 09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.6% |
| 09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -9.0% |
| 09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -0.2% |
| 09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.8% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| 09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.6% |
| 09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Guess?
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.29 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| Rev LTM | 5,267 |
| Op Inc LTM | 301 |
| FCF LTM | 152 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 293 |
| CFO LTM | 410 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 514 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 12.6 |
| P/E | 24.6 |
| P/CFO | 8.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 61.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 62.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 22.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 1,476 | 1,381 | 1,298 | 942 | 1,248 |
| Americas Retail | 711 | 758 | 759 | 511 | 812 |
| Asia | 277 | 239 | 237 | 233 | 346 |
| Americas Wholesale | 200 | 206 | 201 | 118 | 186 |
| Licensing | 113 | 103 | 97 | 74 | 86 |
| Total | 2,777 | 2,687 | 2,592 | 1,877 | 2,678 |
Operating Income by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 172 | 160 | 175 | 67 | 134 |
| Licensing | 106 | 92 | 88 | 68 | 74 |
| Americas Retail | 57 | 87 | 125 | -16 | 22 |
| Americas Wholesale | 54 | 46 | 54 | 20 | 36 |
| Asia | 8 | -5 | -4 | -21 | -9 |
| Net gains on lease modifications | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Gain on sale of assets | 0 | 0 | |||
| Asset impairment charges | -7 | -10 | -3 | -80 | -10 |
| Unallocated corporate overhead expense | -128 | -125 | -130 | -101 | -107 |
| Total | 263 | 248 | 305 | -60 | 141 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2025 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 4/3/2025 | 9.8% | -1.5% | 12.6% |
| 11/26/2024 | -5.4% | -1.6% | -19.6% |
| 8/28/2024 | 1.4% | -4.4% | 0.9% |
| 5/30/2024 | -0.5% | 0.1% | -14.9% |
| 3/20/2024 | 20.7% | 20.2% | 9.0% |
| 11/21/2023 | -12.3% | -7.3% | 1.0% |
| 8/23/2023 | 26.0% | 35.0% | 19.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 16 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.8% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -5.8% | -17.3% |
| Max Positive | 124.5% | 108.9% | 104.8% |
| Max Negative | -20.0% | -16.9% | -28.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9052025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6112025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 4112025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12062024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9062024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6072024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4012024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3242023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9022022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3242022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12032021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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