Comfort Systems USA (FIX)
Market Price (3/4/2026): $1379.9 | Market Cap: $48.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction & Engineering
Comfort Systems USA (FIX)
Market Price (3/4/2026): $1379.9Market Cap: $48.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction & Engineering
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 38x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 41x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 304% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Building Management Systems, Show more. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.0% | |
| Key risksFIX key risks include [1] its concentrated exposure to large, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Building Management Systems, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 38x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 41x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 304% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.0% |
| Key risksFIX key risks include [1] its concentrated exposure to large, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Comfort Systems USA reported exceptional fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, significantly surpassing previous year performance and analyst expectations.
For the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, net income more than doubled to $330.8 million, or $9.37 per diluted share, a 129.1% increase in diluted EPS compared to $4.09 per diluted share in Q4 2024. This figure exceeded analyst estimates of $6.82. Revenue for the quarter grew by 41.7% year-over-year to $2.65 billion, beating estimates of $2.36 billion. For the full year 2025, net income reached $1.02 billion, effectively doubling from $522.4 million in 2024, on revenue of $9.10 billion. Operating cash flow for the full year also reached a record $1.19 billion.
2. The company achieved a record-high backlog, primarily driven by robust demand in the technology and data center sectors.
As of December 31, 2025, Comfort Systems USA's backlog surged to an all-time high of $11.94 billion, nearly doubling with a 99.3% increase from $5.99 billion a year prior. Same-store backlog also saw a substantial increase, growing by over $1 billion for the third consecutive quarter. This significant demand is largely attributed to the technology sector, particularly for high-density data center cooling and new construction projects, with technology/data center work constituting 45% of 2025 revenue, up from 33% in the previous year. To support this growth, the company plans to expand its modular capacity from 3 million to approximately 4 million square feet by the end of 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.4% change in FIX stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 976.94 | 1391.16 | 42.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,323 | 9,102 | 9.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.1% | 11.2% | 11.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.2 | 48.0 | 16.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 35 | 35 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FIX | 42.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.4% | 49.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 14.2% | 56.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 97.9% change in FIX stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 702.95 | 1391.16 | 97.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,685 | 9,102 | 18.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.0% | 11.2% | 24.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.9 | 48.0 | 33.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 35 | 35 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 97.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FIX | 97.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.8% | 54.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 15.9% | 52.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 284.2% change in FIX stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 94.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 362.05 | 1391.16 | 284.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,027 | 9,102 | 29.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.4% | 11.2% | 51.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.7 | 48.0 | 94.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 35 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 284.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FIX | 284.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.5% | 58.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 30.0% | 59.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 868.0% change in FIX stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 129.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 143.71 | 1391.16 | 868.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,140 | 9,102 | 119.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.9% | 11.2% | 89.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.9 | 48.0 | 129.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 35 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 868.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FIX | 868.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.1% | 54.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 81.3% | 57.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FIX Return | 89% | 17% | 80% | 107% | 121% | 54% | 2696% |
| Peers Return | 52% | -2% | 46% | 49% | 47% | 28% | 506% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FIX Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 83% | 75% | 75% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 43% | 63% | 62% | 58% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FIX Max Drawdown | -2% | -24% | -3% | -5% | -30% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -30% | -11% | -16% | -23% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EME, PWR, MTZ, APG, MYRG. See FIX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FIX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 104 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 531 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 132.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,688 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to EME, PWR, MTZ, APG, MYRG
In The Past
Comfort Systems USA's stock fell -26.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -26.7% loss requires a 36.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Comfort Systems USA (FIX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Comfort Systems USA (FIX):
- Like Johnson Controls for commercial HVAC and mechanical system installation and service.
- ABM Industries for specialized commercial building mechanicals and HVAC.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Mechanical Contracting Services: Design, installation, and maintenance of heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), plumbing, and piping systems.
- Electrical Contracting Services: Design, installation, and maintenance of electrical systems, including power distribution, lighting, and specialized controls.
- Building Automation and Control Systems: Implementation and servicing of intelligent systems that automate and manage building functions for optimal performance and energy efficiency.
- Specialty Services: Provides custom fabrication, refrigeration, and other niche mechanical and electrical solutions for various industries.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Comfort Systems USA (Symbol: FIX)
Comfort Systems USA (FIX) primarily sells its services to other companies and organizations (Business-to-Business, B2B). Due to the diverse nature of its client base and its project-oriented business model, Comfort Systems USA does not have any single "major customer" that accounts for a significant portion of its revenue. According to its SEC filings, no single customer accounted for more than 10% of consolidated revenues in 2023, 2022, or 2021.
Instead of specific named customer companies, Comfort Systems USA serves a broad range of clients across various sectors. The types of customer organizations that Comfort Systems USA serves include:
- Commercial Entities: This category includes a wide array of businesses such as office buildings, retail centers, hotels, data centers, sports venues, and other privately-owned commercial properties that require advanced HVAC, plumbing, electrical, and mechanical systems.
- Industrial Facilities: Comfort Systems USA provides services to manufacturing plants, warehouses, distribution centers, research and development facilities, and other industrial sites that often have complex and specialized mechanical system needs.
- Institutional Organizations: This encompasses clients in the public and non-profit sectors, including healthcare facilities (hospitals, medical office buildings), educational institutions (universities, K-12 schools), government buildings, and correctional facilities, all of which require reliable and efficient building systems.
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Brian E. Lane, Chief Executive Officer, President & Director
Mr. Lane has served as CEO and President of Comfort Systems USA since December 2011 and as a director since November 2010. He joined the company in October 2003, progressing through roles including Vice President, Senior Vice President for Region One, and Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Prior to Comfort Systems USA, Mr. Lane spent fifteen years at Halliburton, holding various positions in business development, strategy, and project initiatives, including Regional Director of Europe and Africa. His additional experience includes serving as a Regional Director of Capstone Turbine Corporation and as a Vice President of Kvaerner, an international engineering and construction company. Mr. Lane is also a member of the Board of Directors of Griffin Dewatering Corporation and Main Street Capital Corporation.
William George, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Mr. George was one of the executives who helped found Comfort Systems USA in 1997. He has served as Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President since 2005. From the company's inception until 2005, he served as General Counsel. Before joining Comfort Systems USA, Mr. George was General Counsel of a public consolidator of medical transportation (American Medical Response, Inc.) and previously worked as a corporate lawyer at Ropes & Gray, a large Boston law firm.
Trent McKenna, Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer
Mr. McKenna has served as Chief Operating Officer for Comfort Systems USA since January 2021. He previously held various roles at the company since 2004, including Senior Vice President, Vice President – Region 4, General Counsel, and Secretary. Before joining Comfort Systems USA, he was a practicing attorney in complex commercial litigation at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP.
Julie Shaeff, Senior Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer
Ms. Shaeff has served as the Chief Accounting Officer since April 2005. Prior to this role, she was the Assistant Controller from September 1999 until April 2005. Before joining Comfort Systems USA, Ms. Shaeff was a Financial Reporting Manager for Browning-Ferris Industries.
Laura Howell, Senior Vice President & General Counsel
Ms. Howell has served as Vice President and General Counsel for Comfort Systems USA since January 2019. She previously held positions within the company as Associate General Counsel from January 2018 to December 2018 and as Senior Counsel, Corporate from November 2014 to December 2017. Prior to joining Comfort Systems USA, Ms. Howell was an associate in the corporate department of Latham & Watkins, LLP and started her career at Fenwick & West, LLP.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Comfort Systems USA's business include its significant exposure to large, capital-intensive projects within the technology and industrial sectors, operational challenges related to project execution, and sensitivity to economic cycles.
- Concentrated Exposure to Technology/Data Center Projects and Customer Capital Expenditure Fluctuations: Comfort Systems USA's reliance on large, capital-intensive projects, particularly within the technology and industrial end markets, represents a key risk. A potential slowdown in customer capital expenditure, especially concerning data center buildouts, could negatively impact short-term revenue growth. The company's growing dependence on technology and data center demand is highlighted as a significant current risk.
- Operational Risks and Project Management Challenges: The company faces operational risks inherent in project management, including the potential for cost overruns, project delays, and execution challenges. Changes in estimates of revenue and service costs can directly affect profitability. Furthermore, persistent skilled labor shortages and increased labor costs could pressure margins and challenge the company's growth outlook.
- Dependence on Economic Cycles: The construction and contracting services industry, in which Comfort Systems USA operates, is highly sensitive to broader economic cycles. Economic downturns can lead to reduced demand for the company's services, which could in turn affect its revenue and profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Comfort Systems USA (FIX) operates in the United States, primarily providing mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) building systems services, which include heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), plumbing, piping, controls, and modular construction. Their addressable markets are primarily within the U.S. commercial and industrial sectors.
The addressable market sizes for their main products and services in the U.S. are as follows:
- U.S. HVAC Services Market: The U.S. HVAC services market size was estimated at USD 28.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 38.8 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6%. Another estimate placed the market at USD 26.9 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 32.9 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 3.4%. The broader U.S. HVAC systems market (which includes equipment) was valued at approximately USD 29.89 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 54.02 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 6.9% from 2025 to 2033.
- U.S. MEP Services Market: The United States MEP services market is estimated to be USD 32.55 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 45.16 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 6.77%. Another report valued the U.S. MEP services market at USD 45.32 billion in 2024 and expects it to grow to USD 102.25 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 10.7% from 2025 to 2032. Mechanical services constituted 41.5% of the mechanical services market share in 2024, while electrical services are forecast to expand at a 7.8% CAGR.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Comfort Systems USA (FIX) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors: * Expanding Record Backlog: The company has consistently reported a growing and record-high backlog, reaching $9.38 billion as of September 30, 2025. This significant backlog, which saw a 65% year-over-year increase, indicates robust future demand and a strong pipeline of upcoming projects. This momentum is expected to support stable performance in 2025 and continued growth into 2026. * Strong Demand in the Technology Sector, particularly Data Centers: Comfort Systems USA is experiencing substantial demand from its technology customers, with data center-related activities being a significant contributor to revenue growth. In 2025, the Technology sector accounted for 42% of total revenues, up from 32% a year prior, and this trend is projected to continue or even amplify. The company is addressing the critical need for cooling large hyperscale data centers, an area seeing massive investment. * Strategic Acquisitions: Recent acquisitions are poised to contribute incremental revenue. For example, on October 1, 2025, Comfort Systems USA acquired two electrical companies in Western Michigan and Southern Florida, which are anticipated to add over $200 million in annual revenue. These acquisitions expand the company's capabilities, particularly in industrial and healthcare markets. * Broad-Based Market Strength and Same-Store Revenue Growth: The company continues to benefit from broad-based market strength and sustained demand across its core segments. Comfort Systems USA reported a 33% same-store revenue growth in the third quarter of 2025 and expects high-single-digit percentage growth in same-store revenue for the full year 2025, with low to mid-teens growth projected for full-year 2026. Demand remains strong across various sectors, including industrial and institutional markets such as education, healthcare, and government. * Public Infrastructure Spending and Onshoring Trends: Elevated public infrastructure spending, fueled by federal and state initiatives, is contributing to market optimism and benefiting Comfort Systems USA. Onshoring trends are also expected to support the company's growth prospects.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Comfort Systems USA repurchased 10,355,551 shares for approximately $299.56 million through August 7, 2024.
- As of May 16, 2025, the company repurchased 10,757,964 shares at an aggregate price of $437.56 million.
- The Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional 1,000,000 shares on August 13, 2024, and further increased this authorization by 402,413 shares on May 22, 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Comfort Systems USA strategically acquires local companies to expand its geographic footprint and service capabilities.
- Key acquisitions include Summit Industrial Construction, LLC in January 2024, focusing on modular construction for advanced technology and industrial sectors, expected to contribute $360 million to $400 million in annualized revenues.
- The company also acquired J & S Mechanical Contractors, Inc. in February 2024, adding mechanical construction services in the Mountain West region with expected annualized revenues of $145 million to $160 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures have steadily increased, from $24.13 million in 2020 to $111.07 million in 2024.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be $120.9 million.
- Primary focus areas for capital expenditures include strengthening core operating competencies, sustainability, efficiency, technological improvement, and investments in modular and off-site construction capabilities.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| 02272026 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | LZ | LegalZoom.com | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -5.0% |
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| 02132026 | TREX | Trex | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -5.9% |
| 02132026 | PCTY | Paylocity | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.6% | -0.6% | -4.8% |
| 11212025 | FIX | Comfort Systems USA | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 59.9% | 59.9% | -1.2% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 433.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 28.2 |
| Rev LTM | 11,432 |
| Op Inc LTM | 948 |
| FCF LTM | 847 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 660 |
| CFO LTM | 973 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 815 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 28.2 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 35.1 |
| P/E | 53.8 |
| P/CFO | 31.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 24.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 49.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 124.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 221.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 21.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 41.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 104.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 159.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,391.16 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 49.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/27/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,164.70 | $836.80 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 19.4% | 66.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 51.8% | 54.8% |
| Downside Capture | 174.20 | 161.06 |
| Upside Capture | 437.98 | 278.51 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.7% | 58.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.42 | 1.77 | 2.37 | 2.52 | 1.67 | 1.77 |
| Up Beta | 2.93 | 1.73 | 2.09 | 2.07 | 1.38 | 1.67 |
| Down Beta | 1.79 | 0.36 | 1.43 | 1.57 | 1.40 | 1.49 |
| Up Capture | 456% | 517% | 529% | 708% | 841% | 2976% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 25 | 36 | 71 | 145 | 417 |
| Down Capture | 61% | 58% | 160% | 194% | 131% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 16 | 25 | 53 | 106 | 335 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FIX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIX | 286.3% | 55.0% | 2.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 30.1% | 19.2% | 1.24 | 59.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 19.3% | 0.63 | 58.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 79.3% | 26.1% | 2.22 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.1% | 0.80 | 18.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 16.6% | 0.16 | 25.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.7% | 45.2% | -0.32 | 24.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FIX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIX | 86.2% | 43.3% | 1.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 15.1% | 17.2% | 0.71 | 59.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 54.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.8% | 17.3% | 1.08 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 13.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 34.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.7% | 56.8% | 0.34 | 22.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FIX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIX | 49.3% | 41.7% | 1.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 15.0% | 19.8% | 0.67 | 60.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 55.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.9% | 15.6% | 0.80 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.1% | 17.6% | 0.43 | 18.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.5% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 43.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.5% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 15.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/19/2026 | 6.5% | 4.7% | |
| 10/23/2025 | 19.0% | 16.8% | 8.4% |
| 7/24/2025 | 22.4% | 25.0% | 22.6% |
| 2/20/2025 | -4.7% | -6.7% | -7.7% |
| 10/24/2024 | -10.4% | -5.4% | 18.9% |
| 7/25/2024 | 6.0% | 11.8% | 16.0% |
| 2/22/2024 | 12.6% | 23.4% | 29.9% |
| 10/26/2023 | 14.5% | 22.2% | 29.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 8.9% | 14.0% | 17.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -6.0% | -3.1% |
| Max Positive | 22.4% | 25.0% | 29.9% |
| Max Negative | -12.9% | -13.9% | -7.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Howell, Laura Finley | SVP & GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 12052025 | 996.16 | 1,000 | 996,163 | 7,907,545 | Form |
| 2 | George, William Iii | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 958.88 | 4,370 | 4,190,299 | 38,186,377 | Form |
| 3 | Lane, Brian E | PRESIDENT/CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFF. | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 947.98 | 7,158 | 6,785,645 | 171,478,315 | Form |
| 4 | Anderson, Darcy | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 958.72 | 4,000 | 3,834,889 | 21,604,805 | Form | |
| 5 | Bulls, Herman E | Direct | Sell | 10312025 | 1013.62 | 2,000 | 2,027,247 | 30,990,528 | Form |
FIX Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of ~1.1x indicates a balanced risk-reward profile. While the fundamental momentum is strong (Regime B), the current high valuation already prices in significant success, leaving a limited margin of safety. The upside is capped by the already-premium multiple, while the downside from a cyclical turn is significant. The thesis is not compellingly asymmetric at the current price.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityThe business is project-based and tied to the capital expenditure cycles of its customers, particularly in construction. Its current hyper-growth is driven by a cyclical boom in data center buildouts, making cycle timing and valuation inversion critical analytical lenses.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Comfort Systems is capitalizing on the secular buildout of AI infrastructure, leading to a significant mix shift towards higher-margin electrical services for data centers. This has driven backlog to a record $9.38 billion, providing high revenue and earnings visibility for the next 12-18 months.
- Record Backlog of $9.38 billion, up 65% YoY (Q3 2025)
- Electrical Segment revenue growth of 71.4% YoY, outpacing the Mechanical segment (Q3 2025)
- Gross profit margin expansion to 24.8% from 21.1% YoY, driven by the favorable project mix shift.
PRIMARY RISK
The company's accelerating growth and premium valuation are highly dependent on the continued, unprecedented capital spending by a small number of hyperscale data center clients. Any signal of a 'digestion' phase, capex optimization, or project pause from these key customers would break the growth narrative and lead to a significant stock de-rating.
- Primary bear case identified as a slowdown in hyperscaler capex.
- Over-concentration risk in the cyclical data center market is a key structural vulnerability.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly Backlog Growth (YoY) | > 40% YoY | This is the primary leading indicator. Any significant deceleration below the current 65% rate would signal that the growth peak is passing, which is the core bear thesis. |
| Electrical Segment Revenue Growth (YoY) | > 50% YoY | This segment is the engine of the high-margin growth story. A slowdown here would indicate a loss of momentum in the critical data center end-market. |
| Gross Margin Percentage | Stays above 24% | Measures the company's ability to maintain pricing power and execution efficiency on its massive backlog. Margin compression would signal execution issues or a loss of pricing power. |
Data Center Supercycle vs. Cyclical Peak
BULL VIEW
Record $9.38B backlog (+65% YoY) is tangible proof of a durable, multi-year growth runway fueled by the AI infrastructure buildout, supporting premium valuation.
CORE TENSION
Is the current data center boom a multi-year supercycle justifying FIX's valuation, or a temporary spike preceding a sharp cyclical downturn and multiple compression?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The company achieved a second consecutive same-store backlog increase of more than $1 billion in Q3 2025, demonstrating demand is massively outpacing revenue recognition.
BEAR VIEW
Extreme customer concentration in hyperscalers creates vulnerability. A capex 'digestion' phase could abruptly halt growth, causing the high P/E multiple to collapse.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late February 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call & FY26 Guidance Watch: Q4 Book-to-Bill Ratio and FY2026 same-store revenue growth guidance. The key is continued backlog growth despite record revenue burn. |
Late April 2026 | Hyperscaler (MSFT, AMZN, GOOG) Q1 Earnings Calls Watch: Commentary on FY2026 Capital Expenditures. Keywords like 'capital efficiency' or 'digesting capacity' are major red flags. |
Monthly | AIA Architecture Billings Index (ABI) Monthly Release Watch: The headline index number. A sustained failure to reclaim the 50.0 level signals a deepening slowdown in the broader non-residential construction market. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
9/18/2025 | Positive Sector Read-Through Details: The stock rose significantly on a day with no company-specific news, likely due to positive guidance from a competitor or key data center customer. | Rose significantly by 4.8% $762.43 -> $798.88 |
10/24/2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Beat & Raise Details: Announced a massive EPS beat and 35% revenue growth. Backlog surged 65% YoY to a record $9.38 billion, sending shares soaring. | Surged +19.0% $824.49 -> $981.05 |
11/24/2025 | CEO Insider Sale Details: CEO Brian Lane sold 7,158 shares for roughly $6.79 million. The stock surged despite the sale, indicating powerful underlying momentum and investor confidence. | Surged +5.7% $894.08 -> $945.07 |
12/1/2025 | CFO Insider Sale Details: CFO William George III sold 4,370 shares for approximately $4.19 million. The market reaction was muted, suggesting the sale was not viewed as a negative signal. | Slight -1.6% pullback $976.94 -> $961.20 |
12/17/2025 | Sharp Market Pullback Details: The stock experienced a significant one-day drop, likely due to sector-wide profit-taking in high-growth industrial names after a strong multi-month rally. | Plummeted -8.7% $968.50 -> $883.79 |
1/27/2026 | Stock Hits New All-Time High Details: Shares continued their strong rally from late 2025, reaching a new all-time high driven by sustained positive sentiment around the data center construction boom. | Rose significantly by 2.9% $1127.55 -> $1160.38 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (4.7x S&P). While the Bullish sentiment, widening moat, and high visibility are compelling, the expensive valuation requires discipline. We cap exposure at a Normal (4-6%) size to balance the strong fundamentals against the high volatility.
Diversification Alternatives
PWR
SECTORReduces single-sector risk. Instead of FIX's concentration in cyclical data center capex, PWR's growth is driven by the durable, multi-decade tailwind of U.S. grid modernization and electrification.
EME
INDUSTRYEME offers similar exposure to data center and industrial trends but is a larger, more diversified company, potentially offering a lower-risk profile for investors cautious of FIX's explosive growth.
Comfort Systems USA is re-rating from a cyclical construction contractor to a critical enabler of the AI and industrial manufacturing supercycle, driven by a near-doubling of its project backlog to $11.9B, with 45% of revenue now derived from the technology sector.
Filter all news through the lens of backlog growth and margin execution in high-tech construction (data centers, manufacturing).
Book-to-bill ratio >1.1x; sequential backlog growth >$1B; gross margins sustained above 24%; new modular capacity expansions announced or coming online; acquisitions of electrical contractors in high-growth regions.
Sequential decline in total backlog; book-to-bill ratio <1.0; gross margin compression below 23% due to labor/material costs on fixed-price contracts; slowdown in data center or semiconductor fab project awards.
Minor fluctuations in quarterly service revenue mix (expected to decline as a % of revenue as massive construction projects accelerate); individual project wins/losses unless they are multi-billion dollar programs; regional housing market data (less relevant to their industrial/commercial focus).
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the execution of its record $11.94 billion backlog, which nearly doubled year-over-year. This backlog is heavily concentrated in high-growth technology and industrial sectors (67% of 2025 volume), particularly data centers. The market is re-rating the company based on the multi-year revenue visibility and higher margins associated with these complex projects.
Mechanical Systems Construction & Services
$6.8B TTM (75% of Total) · 23.6% MarginWhat It Is
Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, plumbing, piping, and building controls installation. Includes a rapidly growing off-site modular construction business for data centers.
Who Pays & How
General contractors and large facility owners (e.g., hyperscale data center operators, semiconductor manufacturers) pay for complex, mission-critical systems. They choose FIX for its national scale, engineering expertise, strong safety record, and ability to manage large, multi-year projects.
Competition
Electrical Systems Construction & Services
$2.3B TTM (25% of Total) · 26.7% MarginWhat It Is
Installation of power distribution, branch wiring, control systems, and instrumentation for industrial and commercial facilities.
Who Pays & How
The same customer base as the mechanical segment, often on the same projects. Customers require integrated mechanical and electrical (MEP) providers for complex facilities like data centers and manufacturing plants.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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