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We Forecast Higher Stock Return For Pfizer vs. FedEx

FDXPFE Market Cap$57 Bil$303 BilLTM Revenue$92 Bil$92 BilCurrent P/S0.63.3Current P/EBIT7.712.5Stock Return Forecast (3Y)4%22%

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

3-Year Return Depends On [1] Revenue Growth [2] P/S

FDXPFE LTM Revenue$92 Bil$92 Bilx Revenue Growth [1]3.8%1.6%= Revenue Forecast (3Y)$102 Bil$97 Bil x P/S [2]0.63.8 = Market Cap Forecast (3Y)$61 Bil$368 BilMarket Cap Today$57 Bil$303 Bil Stock Return Forecast (3Y)4%22%

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

[1] How Much Can Revenue Grow In Next 3 Years

Past revenue growth metrics that form basis of our expectation

FDXPFE Recent Quarter Growth9.9%76.8%LTM Growth-23.0%99.3%Growth During Covid-0.7%2.5%Pre-Covid Annual Growth8.8%-7.5% Annual Growth Forecast3.8%1.6%

(a) LTM = Last 12 months (b) Growth During Covid = Year 2020 growth

(b) Recent quarter growth refers to growth in recent quarter vs. the same quarter one year ago, commonly referred to as y-o-y growth

FedEx Revenue vs. Pfizer Revenue

FDX Revenue History & 3Y Forecast (12% cumulative growth)

PFE Revenue History & 3Y Forecast (5% cumulative growth)

Note: The years shown in the charts above are fiscal years. => For PFE, FY2021 refers to the fiscal year ending Dec 31, 2021 => For FDX, FY2021 refers to the fiscal year ending May 31, 2021

[2] Which P/S Scenarios Make Sense

P/S Scenarios & Corresponding 3-Year Returns (in brackets)

P/S & Return ScenariosFDXPFE Current0.6 (11%)3.3 (4.8%)Expansion0.7 (32%)3.5 (11%)Contraction0.5 (-9.5%)3.1 (-1.4%)Pre-Covid0.4 (-25%)4.6 (47%)Historical Average0.6 (11%)4.6 (47%) Scenario Average0.6 (3.8%)3.8 (22%)"Current" refers to ratio as of 5/30/2022

Note: Expansion/contraction considered from current / current('adjusted) P/S levels; NA imples invalid scenario because of extreme unsustainable values

FedEx P/S vs. Pfizer P/S

FDX P/S Ratio History

PFE P/S Ratio History

P/S Ratio

Market RatiosFDXPFE Current P/S0.63.3Current P/EBIT7.712.5

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

Revenue Growth & Operating Margin

Financial MetricsFDXPFE Revenue GrowthLast Q Sequential0.7%8.6%Last Q YoY9.9%76.8%LTM-23%99.3%Last 3 FY9%32.2% MarginsLTM Op Margins8%26.1%LTM Margin Change vs Last 3 FY2.5%-0.4%FCF Margin9.9%37.4%

(a) YoY = year-on-year (b) LTM = Last 12 months (c) FY = fiscal year

FDX Operating Income PFE Operating Income

Financial & Market Risk

Risk MetricsFDXPFE Financial RiskDebt as % of Equity79.7%12.0%Cash as % of Assets7.2%1.3% Market RiskMax Drawdown Last 3Y-41.3%-31.4%

(a) Last 3Y = Last 3 years

Note On P/S Justification

=> Stock prices deviate from fair value for extended periods of time based on momentum, macro economy, liquidity, and other factors

=> Therefore, our P/S scenarios does not take into account fairness of current values, and we assign equal probability to all scenarios

=> However, relative assessment of P/S in context of growth, margins and risk, can shed light on likelihood of different P/S scenarios

Past Market Return Comparison vs. Benchmarks

Compare Returns With Benchmark & Trefis Portfolio

201720182019202020212022Total [1]AvgBestReturns FDX Return34%-35%-6%72%-0%-15%18% PFE Return12%21%-10%-6%60%-9%66% S&P 500 Return19%-6%29%16%27%-13%86% Trefis MS Portfolio Return23%-2%34%68%46%-16%228% <---Monthly Win Rates [3] FDX Win Rate83%42%67%67%50%40% 58% PFE Win Rate50%58%58%25%75%40% 51% S&P 500 Win Rate92%67%83%58%75%40% 69%<---Trefis Portfolio Win Rate89%58%75%58%83%40% 67%<---Max Drawdowns [4] FDX Max Drawdown-1%-39%-14%-40%-16%-24% -22% PFE Max Drawdown-4%-7%-22%-27%-9%-23% -15% S&P 500 Max Drawdown0%-12%-2%-31%-1%-18% -11%<---Trefis Portfolio Max Drawdown-4%-24%-11%-38%-14%-16% -18% [1] Cumulative total returns since 2017[2] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive[3] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year

FDX Stock Return PFE Stock Return

Compare Returns With Relevant Investment Themes That Give Similar Market & Capitalization Exposure

FedEx

Pfizer

=> E-Commerce Stocks => Large Cap Stocks

=> Covid-19 Testing Stocks => Gene Editing Stocks => Covid-19 Vaccines Stocks => Covid-19 Treatment Stocks => Out Of Favor Health Care Stocks => Mega Cap Stocks

FAQ

[1] Why Are We Comparing FedEx And Pfizer?

We compare stocks which share one or more similar characteristicsThis is because the decision to invest often come down to finding the best stocks within the ambit of certain characteristics that suit an investment styleWe compare FedEx vs. Pfizer because they both have similar revenue. Company size can matter when choosing an investment as bigger size can imply greater market power; on the flip side, it can also mean lesser growth opportunities

[2] How Do We Arrive At A Decision?

We favor stocks that offer meaningfully greater expected return in the next 3 yearsThese returns are calculated based on our revenue forecast and Price to Sales Ratio (P/S) scenarios consideredSimilar Price To Sales Ratio (P/S) scenarios are considered for both stocks and each scenario is weighted equally for a given stock

[3] How Do We Forecast Revenue?

We have different methodologies for companies negatively impacted by Covid, and for companies not impacted or positively impacted by CovidDifferent methodologies are essential to capture recovery in case of negative impactFor companies negatively impacted by covid, we consider quarterly revenue recovery trajectory to forecast recovery to pre-covid revenue run rate, and beyond recovery point, we apply average annual growth observed in 3 years prior to covid to simulate return to normal conditionsFor companies registering positive revenue growth during covid, we consider average annual growth prior to covid with certain weightage to growth during covid and last 12 months

[4] Can I See More Such Comparisons For FedEx And Pfizer Peers

Here are some comparisons that you may find useful for FedEx and PfizerFedEx vs. Amazon: Industry Competitors, But Amazon Is A Better BetFedEx vs. United Parcel Service: Industry Competitors, But FedEx Is A Better BetPfizer vs. Eli Lilly and Company: With Return Forecast Of 23%, Pfizer Is A Better BetPfizer vs. Johnson & Johnson: With Return Forecast Of 23%, Pfizer Is A Better Bet Find all such comparisons on FedEx Peer Comparisons and Pfizer Peer Comparisons

FedEx and Pfizer Insights

FedEx better betsFedEx counter-intuitive comparisonFedEx peer comparisonComplete analyses on FedEx (FDX) stockLatest analyses on all stocks

Pfizer better betsPfizer counter-intuitive comparisonPfizer peer comparisonComplete analyses on Pfizer (PFE) stockLatest analyses on all stocks

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