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We Forecast Higher Stock Return For EOG Resources vs. Occidental Petroleum

EOGOXY Market Cap$71 Bil$68 BilLTM Revenue$19 Bil$26 BilCurrent P/S3.92.2Current P/EBIT11.49.3Stock Return Forecast (3Y)52%44%

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

3-Year Return Depends On [1] Revenue Growth [2] P/S

EOGOXY LTM Revenue$19 Bil$26 Bilx Revenue Growth [1]18.3%19.3%= Revenue Forecast (3Y)$31 Bil$44 Bil x P/S [2]3.52.2 = Market Cap Forecast (3Y)$108 Bil$97 BilMarket Cap Today$71 Bil$68 Bil Stock Return Forecast (3Y)52%44%

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

[1] How Much Can Revenue Grow In Next 3 Years

Past revenue growth metrics that form basis of our expectation

EOGOXY Recent Quarter Growth103.8%90.2%LTM Growth69.0%45.7%Growth During Covid-36.5%-14.8%Pre-Covid Annual Growth33.7%28.0% Annual Growth Forecast18.3%19.3%

(a) LTM = Last 12 months (b) Growth During Covid = Year 2020 growth

(b) Recent quarter growth refers to growth in recent quarter vs. the same quarter one year ago, commonly referred to as y-o-y growth

EOG Resources Revenue vs. Occidental Petroleum Revenue

EOG Revenue History & 3Y Forecast (65% cumulative growth)

OXY Revenue History & 3Y Forecast (70% cumulative growth)

Note: The years shown in the charts above are fiscal years. => For EOG, FY2021 refers to the fiscal year ending Dec 31, 2021 => For OXY, FY2021 refers to the fiscal year ending Dec 31, 2021

[2] Which P/S Scenarios Make Sense

P/S Scenarios & Corresponding 3-Year Returns (in brackets)

P/S & Return ScenariosEOGOXY Current3.9 (66%)2.2 (45%)Expansion4.3 (88%)2.9 (88%)Contraction3.4 (45%)1.6 (1.4%)Pre-Covid2.1 (-8%)1.5 (-4.2%)Historical Average3.9 (70%)2.9 (92%) Scenario Average3.5 (52%)2.2 (44%)"Current" refers to ratio as of 4/21/2022

Note: Expansion/contraction considered from current / current('adjusted) P/S levels; NA imples invalid scenario because of extreme unsustainable values

EOG Resources P/S vs. Occidental Petroleum P/S

EOG P/S Ratio History

OXY P/S Ratio History

P/S Ratio

Market RatiosEOGOXY Current P/S3.92.2Current P/EBIT11.49.3

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

Revenue Growth & Operating Margin

Financial MetricsEOGOXY Revenue GrowthLast Q Sequential26.8%16.5%Last Q YoY104%90.2%LTM69%45.7%Last 3 FY11%16.1% MarginsLTM Op Margins33.7%23.8%LTM Margin Change vs Last 3 FY16%36.8%FCF Margin47.2%40.2%

(a) YoY = year-on-year (b) LTM = Last 12 months (c) FY = fiscal year

EOG Operating Income OXY Operating Income

Financial & Market Risk

Risk MetricsEOGOXY Financial RiskDebt as % of Equity7.2%43.8%Cash as % of Assets13.6%3.7% Market RiskMax Drawdown Last 3Y-72.2%-85.9%

(a) Last 3Y = Last 3 years

Note On P/S Justification

=> Stock prices deviate from fair value for extended periods of time based on momentum, macro economy, liquidity, and other factors

=> Therefore, our P/S scenarios does not take into account fairness of current values, and we assign equal probability to all scenarios

=> However, relative assessment of P/S in context of growth, margins and risk, can shed light on likelihood of different P/S scenarios

Past Market Return Comparison vs. Benchmarks

Compare Returns With Benchmark & Trefis Portfolio

201720182019202020212022Total [1]AvgBestReturns EOG Return7%-19%-4%-40%78%38%21% OXY Return3%-17%-33%-58%67%112%-14% S&P 500 Return19%-6%29%16%27%-7%97% Trefis MS Portfolio Return23%-2%34%68%46%-9%257% <---Monthly Win Rates [3] EOG Win Rate67%50%58%33%75%100% 64% OXY Win Rate50%50%50%33%58%100% 57% S&P 500 Win Rate92%67%83%58%75%25% 67%<---Trefis Portfolio Win Rate78%58%75%58%83%25% 63% Max Drawdowns [4] EOG Max Drawdown-18%-23%-26%-64%-0%0% -22% OXY Max Drawdown-19%-22%-39%-78%0%0% -26% S&P 500 Max Drawdown0%-12%-2%-31%-1%-12% -10%<---Trefis Portfolio Max Drawdown-4%-24%-11%-38%-14%-16% -18% [1] Cumulative total returns since 2017[2] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive[3] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year

EOG Stock Return OXY Stock Return

Compare Returns With Relevant Investment Themes That Give Similar Market & Capitalization Exposure

EOG Resources

Occidental Petroleum

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FAQ

[1] Why Are We Comparing EOG Resources And Occidental Petroleum?

We compare stocks which share one or more similar characteristicsThis is because the decision to invest often come down to finding the best stocks within the ambit of certain characteristics that suit an investment styleWe compare EOG Resources vs. Occidental Petroleum because they both are industry peers

[2] How Do We Arrive At A Decision?

We favor stocks that offer meaningfully greater expected return in the next 3 yearsThese returns are calculated based on our revenue forecast and Price to Sales Ratio (P/S) scenarios consideredSimilar Price To Sales Ratio (P/S) scenarios are considered for both stocks and each scenario is weighted equally for a given stock

[3] How Do We Forecast Revenue?

We have different methodologies for companies negatively impacted by Covid, and for companies not impacted or positively impacted by CovidDifferent methodologies are essential to capture recovery in case of negative impactFor companies negatively impacted by covid, we consider quarterly revenue recovery trajectory to forecast recovery to pre-covid revenue run rate, and beyond recovery point, we apply average annual growth observed in 3 years prior to covid to simulate return to normal conditionsFor companies registering positive revenue growth during covid, we consider average annual growth prior to covid with certain weightage to growth during covid and last 12 months

[4] Can I See More Such Comparisons For EOG Resources And Occidental Petroleum Peers

Here are some comparisons that you may find useful for EOG Resources and Occidental PetroleumEOG Resources vs Chevron: Which Stock Is A Better Investment?EOG Resources vs Exxon Mobil: Which Stock Is A Better Investment?Occidental Petroleum vs. Chevron: With Return Forecast Of 49%, Occidental Petroleum Is A Better Bet Find all such comparisons on EOG Resources Peer Comparisons and Occidental Petroleum Peer Comparisons

EOG Resources and Occidental Petroleum Insights

EOG Resources investment ideasEOG Resources counter-intuitive comparisonEOG Resources peer comparisonComplete analyses on EOG Resources (EOG) stockLatest analyses on all stocks

Occidental Petroleum investment ideasOccidental Petroleum counter-intuitive comparisonOccidental Petroleum peer comparisonComplete analyses on Occidental Petroleum (OXY) stockLatest analyses on all stocks

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