DigitalOcean (DOCN)
Market Price (2/19/2026): $69.19 | Market Cap: $6.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Internet Services & Infrastructure
DigitalOcean (DOCN)
Market Price (2/19/2026): $69.19Market Cap: $6.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Internet Services & Infrastructure
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 128% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing. Themes include Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and Platform as a Service (PaaS). | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 95% |
| Key risksDOCN key risks include [1] intense competition from hyperscale cloud providers threatening its market share and [2] scrutiny over its specific financial health, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing. Themes include Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and Platform as a Service (PaaS). |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 128% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 95% |
| Key risksDOCN key risks include [1] intense competition from hyperscale cloud providers threatening its market share and [2] scrutiny over its specific financial health, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance and Upbeat Guidance.
DigitalOcean reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 5, 2025, surpassing its revenue and profitability guidance. The company achieved 16% year-over-year revenue growth and recorded its highest organic incremental Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in its history. Furthermore, management raised its full-year 2025 and 2026 outlook, anticipating reaching its 18-20% revenue growth target in 2026, a full year ahead of previous projections.
2. Accelerated AI Offerings and Growth in AI-Native Customers.
DigitalOcean has significantly expanded its Artificial Intelligence (AI) offerings and infrastructure, with direct AI revenue more than doubling year-over-year for five consecutive quarters as of Q3 2025. The company launched new AI products and innovations at its Deploy conference on October 2, 2025, and established the DigitalOcean AI Partner Program. This expansion includes increasing investments in GPUs and data centers to meet the surging demand from AI-native businesses.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 69.4% change in DOCN stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 92.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.66 | 68.86 | 69.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 833 | 864 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.2% | 29.2% | 92.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.3 | 24.9 | -14.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 91 | 91 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 69.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 69.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 52.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | -6.3% | 57.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 147.2% change in DOCN stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 116.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.86 | 68.86 | 147.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 807 | 864 | 7.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.5% | 29.2% | 116.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.6 | 24.9 | 5.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92 | 91 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 147.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 147.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.9% | 40.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 7.4% | 42.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 66.0% change in DOCN stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 168.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.48 | 68.86 | 66.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 757 | 864 | 14.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.9% | 29.2% | 168.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 46.5 | 24.9 | -46.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92 | 91 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 66.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 66.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 56.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.7% | 58.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 134.6% change in DOCN stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 62.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.35 | 68.86 | 134.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 533 | 864 | 62.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.3 | 7.3 | 36.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 97 | 91 | 5.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 134.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 134.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.1% | 51.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 111.5% | 50.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DOCN Return | 89% | -68% | 44% | -7% | 41% | 41% | 59% |
| Peers Return | 34% | -30% | 54% | 27% | 19% | -6% | 105% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DOCN Win Rate | 60% | 25% | 67% | 42% | 67% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 28% | 70% | 60% | 50% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DOCN Max Drawdown | -17% | -71% | -22% | -26% | -24% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -38% | -5% | -9% | -23% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, AKAM, ORCL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DOCN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 557.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, AKAM, ORCL
In The Past
DigitalOcean's stock fell -84.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -84.8% loss requires a 557.2% gain to breakeven.
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About DigitalOcean (DOCN)
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for DigitalOcean (DOCN):
- AWS for developers and small businesses
- Shopify for server infrastructure
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- Droplets: Scalable virtual machines (VMs) that serve as compute instances for various applications and workloads.
- Managed Databases: Fully managed database services for popular database engines like PostgreSQL, MySQL, Redis, and MongoDB.
- Spaces Object Storage: S3-compatible object storage for storing large amounts of unstructured data like images, videos, and backups.
- DigitalOcean Kubernetes (DOKS): A managed Kubernetes service that simplifies the deployment and management of containerized applications.
- App Platform: A Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) offering that enables developers to build, deploy, and scale web applications quickly without managing underlying infrastructure.
- Functions: A serverless computing service that allows developers to run code snippets in response to events without provisioning or managing servers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
DigitalOcean (DOCN) primarily serves businesses, making its model B2B. However, as a cloud infrastructure provider, DigitalOcean's business model does not typically involve a few "major customers" that constitute a significant portion of its revenue in the way traditional vendors might. Instead, its customer base is highly fragmented, consisting of hundreds of thousands of small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and individual developers globally. While not major named companies, DigitalOcean's customer base can be broadly categorized into the following types of businesses and users:- Startups and Small to Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs): This is DigitalOcean's core target market. These companies utilize DigitalOcean's cloud infrastructure for hosting their websites, web applications, APIs, backend services, and development environments. They are drawn to DigitalOcean's simplicity, predictable pricing, and developer-friendly tools, which cater to businesses with limited IT staff and budget.
- Individual Developers and Freelancers: While often operating as sole proprietorships or very small businesses, individual developers and freelancers form a significant segment. They use DigitalOcean for personal projects, client work, prototyping, testing new ideas, and learning new technologies, appreciating the platform's ease of use and cost efficiency for managing their digital projects.
- Independent Software Vendors (ISVs) and SaaS Providers: Many smaller Independent Software Vendors and Software-as-a-Service companies choose DigitalOcean to build, deploy, and scale their own applications. They appreciate the ease of use and cost-effectiveness for managing their application infrastructure, allowing them to focus on their core product development rather than complex infrastructure management.
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Paddy Srinivasan, Chief Executive Officer
Paddy Srinivasan became the CEO of DigitalOcean in February 2024. He has over 25 years of experience in technology leadership, with a strong focus on cloud technology, operational execution, and financial results. Prior to DigitalOcean, Srinivasan served as CEO at GoTo (formerly LogMeIn), a SaaS company with over $1 billion in revenue. He also co-founded Opstera, a cloud monitoring and managed service provider, which was later acquired by Avanade (which is co-owned by Microsoft). His career also includes leadership roles at major technology companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle, and he played a significant role in incubating and scaling the Xively IoT platform at LogMeIn, which was acquired by Google.
Matt Steinfort, Chief Financial Officer
Matt Steinfort was appointed Chief Financial Officer of DigitalOcean in January 2023. He is responsible for leading and scaling the company's global finance organization. Steinfort brings over 30 years of experience in financial operations, general management, corporate strategy & development, and consulting. Before joining DigitalOcean, he served as CFO at Zayo Group, a global communications infrastructure platform. Notably, Steinfort founded Envysion, a video intelligence SaaS company, where he also served as President and CEO. He has also held leadership roles at ICG Communications, Level 3 Communications, Bain & Company, and Cambridge Technology Partners.
Jeff Guy, Chief Operating Officer
Jeff Guy serves as DigitalOcean's Chief Operating Officer. In this role, he focuses on customer success and revenue growth.
Matt Norman, Chief People Officer
Matt Norman is the Chief People Officer at DigitalOcean, leading the global people team and responsible for building the company's people strategy and culture.
Bratin Saha, Chief Product and Technology Officer
Bratin Saha holds the position of Chief Product and Technology Officer at DigitalOcean.
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The key risks to DigitalOcean's business include intense competition within the cloud computing market, concerns surrounding its financial health and corporate governance, and persistent security threats inherent to cloud service providers.
1. Intense Competition from Hyperscale Cloud Providers
DigitalOcean operates in a highly competitive cloud computing landscape, facing formidable rivals such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure. These larger hyperscale providers possess extensive resources, broader service offerings, and greater market penetration, which can lead to significant competitive pressures for DigitalOcean. This intense competition can result in market share erosion, pricing pressures, and challenges in attracting and retaining customers, particularly those with higher spending potential. Analysts have noted DigitalOcean's net revenue retention rate has been below 100%, indicating that existing customers may be spending less or churning, further highlighting the competitive challenges.
2. Financial and Governance Concerns
DigitalOcean has faced increased scrutiny over its accounting practices, corporate governance, and significant debt obligations, including instances of negative shareholder equity. Shareholder litigation and market commentary have highlighted concerns over alleged aggressive accounting practices, related-party transactions, and material weaknesses in internal financial controls. These financial and governance issues could undermine investor confidence, affect the company's valuation, and potentially impede future growth and leveraging initiatives, despite the company's operational cash flows.
3. Security Risks and Data Breaches
As a cloud infrastructure provider, DigitalOcean is continuously exposed to various cybersecurity threats. These include data breaches, insider threats, weak password protocols, and sophisticated cyber-attacks, including zero-day exploits. A failure to effectively address these security concerns could have severe consequences, such as compromising critical infrastructure, exfiltrating sensitive intellectual property or customer data, disrupting critical services, and eroding customer trust. Despite DigitalOcean's efforts in cloud security, compliance, and various certifications, the evolving nature of cyber threats means that maintaining a robust security posture remains an ongoing and critical risk.
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Major cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) are continually simplifying their offerings and improving their developer experience, particularly with serverless functions and managed application platforms (e.g., AWS App Runner, Azure Container Apps, Google Cloud Run). As these services become easier to use and more price-competitive for small-to-medium workloads, they directly erode DigitalOcean's primary differentiation of simplicity and ease-of-use for developers and SMBs, thus threatening to capture a larger share of DOCN's target market.
The cloud market is seeing the emergence of highly specialized cloud providers and platforms tailored for specific workloads or industries, such as AI/ML infrastructure (e.g., CoreWeave, Runpod) and Web3 decentralized infrastructure (e.g., Alchemy, Infura). These providers can offer superior performance, cost efficiency, or specialized features for their particular niche, potentially drawing away segments of developers and startups who might otherwise use DigitalOcean for their general-purpose cloud needs.
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DigitalOcean, a cloud service provider, primarily addresses the global Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) and Platform as a Service (PaaS) markets. The global addressable market for these main product categories is sized as follows: * Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS): The global IaaS market was valued between USD 127.9 billion and USD 206.85 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates reaching between USD 706.8 billion by 2033 and USD 898.52 billion by 2034. North America held the largest share of the IaaS market in 2024. * Platform as a Service (PaaS): The global PaaS market size was estimated to be between USD 79.4 billion and USD 144.91 billion in 2024. Projections indicate growth to between USD 287.81 billion by 2030 and USD 505.95 billion by 2032. North America also dominated the PaaS market with a 48.65% share in 2024, and the Asia Pacific region is expected to experience the highest Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in the forecasted period. Additionally, DigitalOcean's acquisition of Cloudways in 2022 expanded its reach into the managed cloud hosting and Software as a Service (SaaS) provider segment, enabling them to serve a larger share of the global cloud market for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), which was estimated at USD 98 billion annually in 2022.AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for DigitalOcean (DOCN) over the next 2-3 years:- Rapid Growth of AI/ML Products and Services: DigitalOcean is experiencing significant momentum in demand for its AI/ML products, with Q3 ARR (Annual Run Rate) growing close to 200% year-over-year. The company's Gradient AI platform, which simplifies the integration of powerful AI models and provides a one-stop AI shop, is a key reason for this growth, with AI revenue more than doubling year-over-year for five consecutive quarters. DigitalOcean is strategically focusing on AI inference workloads, which are expected to be a larger long-term market.
- Expansion within and Acquisition of Higher-Spending Customers: DigitalOcean is actively targeting and seeing substantial growth from "Scalers+" (customers spending over $100,000 annually) and "Digital Native Enterprises". Revenue from Scalers+ customers grew 37% year-over-year in Q4 2024 and 41% year-over-year in Q1 2025, now representing a significant portion of total revenue. The company is securing large-scale, multi-year contracts, including several eight-figure deals with AI-native companies, demonstrating success in attracting and retaining sizable enterprise clients.
- Accelerated Product Innovation and Platform Enhancement: DigitalOcean is consistently accelerating its product development pipeline, releasing a significantly higher number of new product features across its core cloud and AI platforms. For instance, in Q4 2024, it released more than four times as many products and features than in the prior year, and five times as many in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. This includes new capabilities in storage, databases, networking, and compute offerings, as well as an expanded AI ecosystem and partner program aimed at enhancing platform value and attracting new customers.
- Strategic Investments in Data Center and GPU Infrastructure: To meet the accelerating demand, especially from AI workloads and large-scale customer contracts, DigitalOcean is making significant investments in additional data center and GPU capacity. Management plans to bring new infrastructure online throughout 2026, including new NVIDIA and AMD GPUs, to support scaling AI and enterprise workloads and to maintain its competitive edge.
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Share Repurchases
- DigitalOcean repurchased $600 million of stock in 2022.
- In February 2023, the company authorized a share repurchase program of up to $500 million, ultimately repurchasing $488.455 million in 2023.
- A new stock repurchase program for up to $140 million was approved in February 2024, authorized through fiscal year 2025.
Share Issuance
- Despite share repurchases, the number of shares outstanding at the end of 2022 was higher than at the beginning of the year, indicating dilution.
- Common stock shares issued and outstanding were approximately 96.7 million at the end of 2022 and 90.2 million at the end of 2023.
- The company expects fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be approximately 106 to 107 million shares for the full year 2025.
Inbound Investments
- DigitalOcean raised $50 million in a Series C funding round in May 2020, which was led by Access Industries and valued the company at $1.15 billion.
Outbound Investments
- In 2022, DigitalOcean acquired Cloudways for $350 million, which expanded its product portfolio and addressable market.
- The company has stated its intent to pursue selective accretive acquisitions to accelerate its plans, including its product roadmap.
- An acquisition related to AI/ML was mentioned for 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for property and equipment were approximately $75.5 million in 2022 and $95.2 million in 2023.
- For the last 12 months as of November 2025, capital expenditures amounted to -$148.21 million.
- DigitalOcean projects capital expenditures of $224 million for 2025, $260 million for 2026, and $303 million for 2027, with a primary focus on investments in AI/ML, core product offerings, and data center servers.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Trade Ideas
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| 01302026 | CVLT | CommVault Systems | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -5.1% |
| 01302026 | NTNX | Nutanix | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.2% | 6.2% | -6.3% |
| 01302026 | FICO | Fair Isaac | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.1% | -8.1% | -9.2% |
| 08312023 | DOCN | DigitalOcean | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.2% | 38.4% | -26.7% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 180.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,320.3 |
| Rev LTM | 183,235 |
| Op Inc LTM | 49,732 |
| FCF LTM | 4,207 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 13,209 |
| CFO LTM | 80,905 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 66,660 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,320.3 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| P/EBIT | 22.4 |
| P/E | 28.0 |
| P/CFO | 19.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 90.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 29.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $68.86 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/24/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $54.03 | $39.25 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 27.4% | 75.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 53.6% | 70.1% |
| Downside Capture | 278.69 | 262.82 |
| Upside Capture | 479.67 | 272.30 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 55.5% | 56.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.12 | 3.66 | 2.95 | 2.49 | 2.03 | 2.04 |
| Up Beta | 2.13 | 3.34 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.63 | 1.76 |
| Down Beta | 1.83 | 1.69 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 1.88 | 1.92 |
| Up Capture | 816% | 718% | 644% | 716% | 674% | 2594% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 32 | 62 | 125 | 374 |
| Down Capture | 547% | 366% | 264% | 211% | 157% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 29 | 63 | 125 | 377 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DOCN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 52.4% | 70.2% | 0.88 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.1% | 27.5% | 0.58 | 58.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 19.4% | 0.53 | 56.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 73.5% | 25.5% | 2.13 | 0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 17.0% | 0.28 | 9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.1% | 16.7% | 0.24 | 36.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.1% | 44.9% | -0.69 | 26.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DOCN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 9.8% | 67.5% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 16.5% | 24.8% | 0.60 | 55.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 54.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 17.1% | 1.04 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.0% | 0.45 | 7.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 38.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.4% | 57.2% | 0.37 | 28.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DOCN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOCN | 4.8% | 67.5% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.3% | 24.2% | 0.88 | 55.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 54.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.0% | 15.6% | 0.80 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 7.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.9% | 20.7% | 0.30 | 38.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.0% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 28.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 18.0% | 28.8% | 24.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 28.9% | 9.4% | 18.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | -13.8% | -3.5% | -8.8% |
| 2/25/2025 | 9.8% | 8.6% | 2.2% |
| 11/4/2024 | -13.5% | -5.7% | -4.8% |
| 8/8/2024 | 11.9% | 25.8% | 33.6% |
| 5/10/2024 | 10.2% | 14.5% | 12.6% |
| 2/21/2024 | 8.7% | 4.1% | 11.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 11.4% | 13.9% | 18.6% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -5.0% | -10.6% |
| Max Positive | 28.9% | 35.0% | 44.9% |
| Max Negative | -24.8% | -25.0% | -42.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saha, Bratin | Chief Product & Tech Officer | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 31.87 | 13,010 | 414,629 | 8,587,850 | Form |
| 2 | Saha, Bratin | Chief Product & Tech Officer | Direct | Sell | 6182025 | 27.77 | 3,461 | 96,112 | 8,179,542 | Form |
| 3 | Butte, Amy | See Footnote | Sell | 6112025 | 29.06 | 5,417 | 157,418 | 900,860 | Form | |
| 4 | Access, Industries Holdings Llc | LLC | Sell | 6062025 | 28.60 | 3,496,504 | 100,000,014 | 4,021,131 | Form | |
| 5 | Saha, Bratin | Chief Product & Tech Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032025 | 29.49 | 41,541 | 1,225,044 | 8,893,565 | Form |
DOCN Trade Sentinel
Core Investment Debate
Pivoting Upmarket vs. Core Market Health
BULL VIEW
The successful pivot to larger customers ($100k+ cohort grew 41% YoY) and AI workloads is creating a more profitable, durable business with significant operating leverage.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating growth in high-value AI/enterprise customers offset potential weakness in the core SMB market and justify the execution risk against giant competitors?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Revenue from customers spending over $100,000/year grew 41% YoY in Q3 2025, now representing 26% of total revenue. Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) surged 370% YoY.
BEAR VIEW
A 99% Net Dollar Retention rate indicates churn in the core SMB base. The company is now fighting larger competitors while facing GPU supply constraints.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 24, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call Watch: FY2026 revenue guidance and commentary on Net Dollar Retention (NDR). Any mention of GPU supply chain impact on CapEx or growth. |
April 22-24, 2026 | Google Cloud Next '26 Watch: Announcements of new, simplified IaaS products with predictable, fixed-price billing aimed at the developer/SMB market. |
Q2-Q3 2026 | Competitor Price Hikes Watch: Public announcements of server price increases from OEMs (Dell, Lenovo) or cloud competitors (Vultr, Linode) due to rising infrastructure costs. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-05 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported quarterly results that beat analyst expectations, signaling strong business momentum heading into the second half of the year. | Surged +28.88% $27.01 -> $34.81 |
2025-10-02 | Deploy 25 London Conference Details: Announced product updates including new GPU offerings (NVIDIA, AMD), an expanded AI Partner Program, and new storage capabilities like Network File System Service. | Surged +7.92% $35.87 -> $38.71 |
2025-11-05 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported Q3 revenue of $230M (+16% YoY), beat estimates. Raised full-year revenue guidance. Highlighted 41% YoY growth from customers spending >$100k. | Surged +18.01% $38.82 -> $45.81 |
2025-12-01 | UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025 Details: Management participated in the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference. No major announcements were made. | Muted (-0.34%) $44.52 -> $44.37 |
2025-12-15 | Managed Kubernetes Updates Details: Company blogged a recap of 2025 releases for its managed Kubernetes service, including enhancements for security, autoscaling, and support for multi-node GPUs. | Fell notably by -3.94% $47.66 -> $45.78 |
2026-02-04 | Product & Billing Model Update Details: Company announced a shift to per-second billing for its Droplet virtual machines, effective Jan 1, 2026, to provide more granular cost control for customers. | Surged +8.25% $55.25 -> $59.81 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (5.45x S&P). While sentiment is Bullish and valuation appears cheap, the 'Low' visibility rating caps conviction. We cap size to Normal to manage drawdown risk from the high volatility.
Diversification Alternatives
OVH.PA
INDUSTRYUnlike DOCN's US-centric revenue, OVHcloud offers geographic diversification with a strong European presence. It also faces similar input cost pressures, providing a good comparable.
AKAM
SECTORAkamai (owner of Linode) is a much larger, more diversified, and consistently profitable entity with a global CDN network. It offers exposure to the same cloud niche but with a stronger balance sheet.
Stock Conviction
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis reveals a highly attractive, probability-adjusted risk/reward skew of 2.77x. The market appears to be mispricing a temporary, macro-level supply risk ('Anti-Alpha') while underappreciating the powerful leading indicators (370% RPO growth) that signal an acceleration in durable, high-margin revenue streams. This qualifies as a high-conviction investment opportunity.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderDigitalOcean's investment profile is defined by its pursuit of high growth in specific, emerging segments (AI, high-spend customers) within a competitive market, rather than stable cash generation or cyclical dynamics. The thesis hinges on the durability of this growth and the strength of its niche competitive moat, aligning perfectly with the 'High-Beta Compounder' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis for DigitalOcean is a strategic and successful pivot from its historical low-cost, simple compute niche to capturing higher-value, more durable revenue streams. This is driven by attracting larger 'Scaler+' customers and penetrating the high-growth AI/ML market. This mix shift structurally enhances ARPU, profitability, and growth durability.
- Revenue from customers spending >$100k/year grew 41% YoY in Q3 2025, now representing 26% of total revenue.
- Direct AI-related revenue has more than doubled year-over-year for five consecutive quarters.
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), a leading indicator of future revenue, surged 370% YoY to $47M, dramatically outpacing the 16% total revenue growth.
- Management raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance and accelerated long-term growth targets to 18-20% for FY26.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant near-term risk to the thesis is a global shortage of high-performance GPUs, driven by massive AI-related demand from hyperscalers and enterprises. This could impede DigitalOcean's ability to scale its AI offerings, a critical component of its growth strategy, leading to slower rollouts, higher capital expenditures, and potential margin pressure on these new, high-demand products.
- Industry reports indicate Nvidia is slashing production of certain GPUs by 30-40% in H1 2026 to prioritize high-margin AI accelerators.
- Peer cloud providers like OVH have forecasted 15-20% server price hikes from OEMs, indicating inflationary pressure across the hardware ecosystem.
- This risk is categorized as high likelihood and high impact in the company's risk matrix, with a potential -15% stock impact if it materializes.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue from Customers >$100k ARR | >35% YoY Growth | This is the primary indicator of the successful pivot to higher-value, more durable revenue streams. Sustaining a high growth rate here is critical to the alpha thesis. |
| Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) Growth | >50% YoY Growth | As the best leading indicator of future revenue, continued strong RPO growth provides visibility and confidence that the current momentum is sustainable and not a one-off. |
| Net Dollar Retention (NDR) | Consistently >100% | Getting and staying above the 100% expansion threshold is crucial to demonstrate that the company is expanding revenue from its existing customer base, a hallmark of a healthy SaaS model. |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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