Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Market Price (10/7/2025): $87.74 | Market Cap: $18.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Market Price (10/7/2025): $87.74
Market Cap: $18.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Strong revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% | Weak revenue growth Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -21% |
Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.9 Bil | Yield minus risk free rate is negative ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20% | |
Attractive yield FCF Yield is 9.3% | ||
Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 42% |
Strong revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.9 Bil |
Attractive yield FCF Yield is 9.3% |
Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 42% |
Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% |
Weak revenue growth Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -21% |
Yield minus risk free rate is negative ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
DLTR Stock
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
DLTR Return | 15% | 30% | 1% | 0% | -47% | 17% | -4% |
Peers Return | 34% | 81% | -5% | 6% | 10% | 22% | 225% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
DLTR Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 25% | 56% | |
Peers Win Rate | 60% | 60% | 48% | 55% | 53% | 60% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
DLTR Max Drawdown | -30% | -22% | -10% | -27% | -57% | -17% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -12% | -36% | -27% | -24% | -20% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ROST, DG, DDS, CTRN, WMT. See DLTR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/6/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | DLTR | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -40.5% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 68.0% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -30.3% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 43.4% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -31.7% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 46.3% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 369 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -53.3% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 113.9% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 504 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Dollar Tree's stock fell -40.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -40.5% loss requires a 68.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past trade ideas related to DLTR and Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -4.4% |
09302025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.9% | -14.9% | -21.1% |
06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
05312025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.8% | -14.8% | -22.4% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -4.4% |
09302025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.9% | -14.9% | -21.1% |
06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
05312025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.8% | -14.8% | -22.4% |
See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Dollar Tree
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 100.12 |
Mkt Cap | 19.8 |
Rev LTM | 16,637 |
Op Inc LTM | 1,621 |
FCF LTM | 1,684 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 1,109 |
CFO LTM | 2,699 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 2,574 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
Op Mgn LTM | 7.6% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 19.8 |
P/S | 1.3 |
P/EBIT | 12.4 |
P/E | 17.4 |
P/CFO | 15.5 |
Total Yield | 4.4% |
Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
D/E | 0.3 |
Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -4.8% |
3M Rtn | 1.1% |
6M Rtn | 21.7% |
12M Rtn | 25.9% |
3Y Rtn | 76.6% |
1M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
3M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
6M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
12M Excs Rtn | 9.5% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dollar Tree | 16,770 | 15,406 | 13,922 | 13,265 | 12,508 |
Other revenue | 11 | 6 | 11 | 1 | |
Corporate, support and Other | 0 | 0 | |||
Family Dollar | 12,388 | 12,243 | 11,103 | ||
Total | 16,781 | 15,412 | 26,321 | 25,509 | 23,611 |
Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dollar Tree | 2,279 | 2,536 | 1,607 | 1,598 | 1,670 |
Corporate, support and Other | -504 | -436 | -339 | -366 | -333 |
Family Dollar | 543 | 656 | -75 | ||
Total | 1,774 | 2,099 | 1,811 | 1,888 | 1,262 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
9/3/2025 | -8.4% | -13.5% | -18.9% |
6/4/2025 | -8.4% | -3.7% | 7.8% |
3/26/2025 | 3.1% | 12.2% | 21.0% |
12/4/2024 | 1.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% |
9/4/2024 | -22.2% | -19.9% | -14.9% |
6/5/2024 | -4.9% | -8.9% | -11.3% |
3/13/2024 | -14.2% | -14.4% | -13.0% |
11/29/2023 | 4.4% | 10.1% | 22.6% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 10 | 10 | 10 |
# Negative | 14 | 14 | 14 |
Median Positive | 3.7% | 8.4% | 12.5% |
Median Negative | -9.3% | -13.0% | -14.5% |
Max Positive | 21.9% | 19.1% | 22.6% |
Max Negative | -22.2% | -21.1% | -26.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
7312025 | 9032025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
4302025 | 6042025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
1312025 | 3262025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
7312024 | 9042024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
4302024 | 6052024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
1312024 | 3202024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
10312023 | 11292023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
7312023 | 8242023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
4302023 | 5252023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
1312023 | 3102023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
10312022 | 11222022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
7312022 | 8252022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
4302022 | 5262022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
1312022 | 3152022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
10312021 | 11232021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Glendinning Stewart | Chief Financial Officer | 9092025 | Buy | 99.50 | 500 | 49,750 | 4,960,374 | Form |
1 | Stahl Stephanie | 9082025 | Sell | 100.32 | 1,185 | 118,878 | 410,206 | Form | |
2 | Aflatooni Robert | Chief Information Officer | 6232025 | Sell | 97.54 | 175 | 17,070 | 2,263,416 | Form |
3 | Maheshwari Aditya | Chief Accounting Officer | 6202025 | Buy | 98.19 | 610 | 59,899 | 475,362 | Form |
4 | McNeely Richard L | CMO - Dollar Tree | 6092025 | Sell | 94.62 | 21,026 | 1,989,480 | 4,770,646 | Form |
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