Costco Wholesale (COST)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $935.0 | Market Cap: $415.1 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Costco Wholesale (COST)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $935.0Market Cap: $415.1 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.4 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.8 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Automation & Robotics, Health & Wellness Trends, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 47x Key risksCOST key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on membership fee income for profitability and [2] global supply chain disruptions that threaten its low-price value proposition. |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.4 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Automation & Robotics, Health & Wellness Trends, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 47x |
| Key risksCOST key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on membership fee income for profitability and [2] global supply chain disruptions that threaten its low-price value proposition. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Costco Wholesale (COST) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Slight Earnings Per Share Miss in Fiscal Q3 2026.
Costco reported its fiscal Q3 2026 results (for the period ending May 2026) on May 28th and 29th, 2026. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.93, which slightly missed the consensus analyst estimate of $4.94. This occurred despite revenue reaching $70.53 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $70.12 billion.
2. Introduction of New Legal Risk from Class-Action Lawsuits.
In June 2026, Costco disclosed that it was facing four class-action lawsuits, originally filed in March 2026. These lawsuits seek refunds for tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The company is contesting the cases, arguing it has no obligation to return these costs to consumers, but the litigation introduces a "novel legal risk" to the stock, which contributed to investor caution.
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Costco Wholesale (COST) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Slight Earnings Per Share Miss in Fiscal Q3 2026.
Costco reported its fiscal Q3 2026 results (for the period ending May 2026) on May 28th and 29th, 2026. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.93, which slightly missed the consensus analyst estimate of $4.94. This occurred despite revenue reaching $70.53 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $70.12 billion.
2. Introduction of New Legal Risk from Class-Action Lawsuits.
In June 2026, Costco disclosed that it was facing four class-action lawsuits, originally filed in March 2026. These lawsuits seek refunds for tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The company is contesting the cases, arguing it has no obligation to return these costs to consumers, but the litigation introduces a "novel legal risk" to the stock, which contributed to investor caution.
3. Broad Macroeconomic Headwinds and Shifting Consumer Behavior.
The retail sector faced persistent economic uncertainty during Q2 2026 (April through June). This included rising raw material and labor costs, as well as pricing volatility. Geopolitical tensions, notably the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran starting in late February 2026, led to spikes in oil and freight costs, with gas prices reaching over $4 a gallon nationally by early April. This environment impacted consumer sentiment and discretionary spending, leading to a "flight to value" as shoppers became more cautious and sought discounts.
4. Premium Valuation Coupled with Expectations of Moderating Growth.
Costco's stock was trading at a premium valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 48 in June 2026. Analysts noted that while the company's sales momentum had been strong, year-over-year comparisons would become more challenging in the latter half of fiscal 2026. This suggested that reported growth rates could moderate, potentially leading to a re-evaluation of the stock's elevated valuation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.9% change in COST stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 993.41 | 935.03 | -5.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 286,265 | 293,587 | 2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 51.6 | 47.0 | -9.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 444 | 444 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COST | -5.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | -20.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 2.6% | 68.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.9% change in COST stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 858.55 | 935.03 | 8.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 280,391 | 293,587 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.9 | 47.0 | 2.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 444 | 444 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COST | 8.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | -12.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 8.9% | 63.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.9% change in COST stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 982.84 | 935.03 | -4.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 268,776 | 293,587 | 9.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 55.6 | 47.0 | -15.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 444 | 444 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.9% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COST | -4.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | -7.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 6.0% | 56.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 81.1% change in COST stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 516.42 | 935.03 | 81.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 235,442 | 293,587 | 24.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.5% | 3.0% | 18.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.2 | 47.0 | 22.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 444 | 444 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 81.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COST | 81.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 22.2% | 55.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COST Return | 52% | -19% | 49% | 40% | -5% | 8% | 160% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -21% | 22% | 34% | 0% | 5% | 74% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COST Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 40% | 62% | 68% | 50% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COST Max Drawdown | -18% | -31% | -10% | -10% | -21% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -37% | -20% | -17% | -26% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WMT, AMZN, TGT, HD, KR. See COST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 431 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 430 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -13.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -10.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Costco Wholesale's stock fell -16.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.3% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | COST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 430 days | 427 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 632 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Costco Wholesale's stock fell -16.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Costco Wholesale (COST)
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates as a leading global membership-based warehouse club. The company's fundamental business model involves customers paying an annual membership fee to gain exclusive access to a wide assortment of products and services, often offered in bulk or larger package sizes at competitive prices. This membership system is key to its operations, generating a significant portion of its profits from these fees while providing value to its loyal customer base.
Costco offers an extensive array of merchandise, encompassing everything from fresh produce, meats, bakery items, and dry groceries to electronics, home furnishings, apparel, health and beauty products, and automotive supplies including tires. Beyond its diverse product offerings, the company provides various in-warehouse services such as pharmacies, optical centers, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and gas stations. Costco also extends its reach through e-commerce websites and additional services like business delivery and travel packages, serving a broad international market that includes North America, Asia, Europe, and Australia.
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- Walmart for bulk shoppers, with a membership.
- A physical Amazon, but for bulk-discounted goods with a membership.
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- Branded & Private-Label Merchandise: Costco offers a vast array of products, including groceries (fresh, dry, frozen), sundries, appliances, electronics, apparel, home goods, hardware, health & beauty aids, and more, available under various brands and its own Kirkland Signature label.
- Membership-Based Retail Access: The core service is providing exclusive access to a curated selection of products at wholesale prices through its membership warehouse clubs.
- Specialty Health & Wellness Services: This category includes operating on-site pharmacies, optical centers, and hearing-aid centers that provide prescriptions, eye exams, eyeglasses, contact lenses, hearing tests, and hearing aids.
- Automotive & Fuel Services: Costco provides tire installation and maintenance services at its tire centers, alongside selling fuel through numerous gas stations.
- Food Court Services: On-site food courts offer prepared meals, snacks, and beverages for members to enjoy while shopping.
- Online Shopping & Delivery: The company operates e-commerce websites and provides various delivery services, including business delivery and same-day grocery delivery.
- Travel Services: Costco offers members the ability to book travel packages, cruises, rental cars, and hotels through its travel services.
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Costco Wholesale (COST) primarily sells to individuals and small businesses rather than other large public companies. The company operates a membership-based model, with its major customers falling into the following categories:
Individual/Household Members: These are the vast majority of Costco's customers, comprising individuals and families who purchase a wide range of products for personal, family, or household consumption. They pay an annual membership fee to access Costco's warehouses and online offerings.
Small Business Members: Costco also caters to small business owners and operators who purchase items in bulk for their commercial needs. This includes products for office supplies, restaurants, resale, or other operational requirements. Costco offers specific business memberships and services like business delivery to support this customer segment.
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Ron Vachris, CEO & President
Ron Vachris assumed the role of CEO of Costco Wholesale Corporation in January 2024. He began his career at Price Club, which later merged with Costco, as a forklift driver in 1982 while studying business at Glendale Community College. Vachris steadily rose through the ranks, serving in various management positions, including senior vice president and general manager, senior vice president of real estate development, and executive vice president of merchandising, before becoming president and chief operating officer in February 2022. He is recognized for reinforcing Costco's tradition of internal advancement and operational rigor.
Gary Millerchip, Executive Vice President & CFO
Gary Millerchip became Costco's Chief Financial Officer in March 2024. Prior to joining Costco, he served as Senior Vice President and CFO at The Kroger Co. from 2019 to 2024, where he led finance and strategy. Millerchip also brings over 20 years of experience in banking, most recently with NatWest Group (formerly Royal Bank of Scotland) in the UK.
Claudine Adamo, Executive Vice President & COO, Merchandising
Claudine Adamo has served as Costco's COO of Merchandising since February 2022. She has spent her entire career of over 30 years at Costco, having advanced from hourly roles to leadership positions in buying, merchandising, and e-commerce.
Torsten Lubach, CTO
Torsten Lubach has served as Costco's Chief Technology Officer since June 2020. In this role, he leads the company's digital and IT modernization, overseeing e-commerce modernization, automation, and global optimization of processes. Lubach's previous experience includes senior IT and digital leadership positions at Lidl in the US and Europe.
Russ Miller, Senior Executive Vice President & COO, Warehouse Operations, U.S. and Mexico
Russ Miller holds the position of Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer for Warehouse Operations in the U.S. and Mexico.
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Here are the key risks to Costco Wholesale's business:
- Economic Sensitivity and Inflationary Pressures: Costco operates on intentionally thin margins for its merchandise, making it highly susceptible to economic fluctuations, including inflation, rising energy costs, and supply chain disruptions. These factors can significantly increase merchandising and operational costs, squeezing profitability if not effectively managed or passed on to consumers, which could then impact sales volume. Geopolitical tensions can also escalate trade wars and tariffs, leading to increased import costs and further impacting margins.
- Membership Model Dependence and Potential Saturation: A significant portion of Costco's operating income is derived from its membership fees, which provide a predictable and high-margin revenue stream. A key risk is the potential for membership saturation, particularly in mature markets like the U.S. and Canada, and any decline in membership renewal rates, especially among newer, digitally acquired members. A weakening in membership growth or loyalty could directly impact this crucial profit driver.
- Intense Competition and E-commerce Challenges: The retail industry is characterized by fierce competition from a variety of players, including other warehouse clubs such as Sam's Club and BJ's Wholesale Club, traditional general merchandise retailers like Target and Kroger, and formidable e-commerce platforms like Amazon. Costco faces the ongoing challenge of adapting its e-commerce capabilities to meet evolving consumer preferences for digital convenience without undermining its core warehouse shopping experience. The company's conservative expansion into member-related services compared to competitors' lucrative ecosystems could also pose a long-term disadvantage.
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Costco Wholesale Corporation (symbol: COST) operates across various product and service categories. Here are the addressable market sizes for its main offerings:
- Grocery Market (Food & Sundries, Fresh Foods):
- Global: The global food and grocery retail market was valued at approximately USD 12.36 trillion in 2024.
- Consumer Electronics:
- Global: The global consumer electronics market size was valued at USD 949.7 billion in 2024.
- U.S.: The U.S. consumer electronics market was valued at approximately USD 185.8 billion in 2024.
- Apparel:
- Global: The global apparel market size was valued at USD 1.8 trillion in 2024.
- U.S.: The United States apparel market is projected to reach US$360 billion in 2024. Online apparel sales in the U.S. reached $111 billion in 2024.
- Pharmacies (including Health and Beauty Aids):
- Global: The global pharmacy market size was estimated at USD 1.35 trillion in 2024.
- U.S.: The U.S. pharmacy market size was estimated at USD 732.44 billion in 2024.
- Gas Stations (Gasoline):
- Global: The global gasoline market size was valued at USD 132.67 billion in 2024.
- Tire Installation Centers (Tire Retail):
- Global: The global tire retail market size was USD 221.6 billion in 2024.
- E-commerce (for business delivery, same-day grocery, and various other online services):
- Global: The global e-commerce market is expected to total $6.3 trillion in 2024.
- U.S.: Total U.S. e-commerce sales reached $1.19 trillion in 2024.
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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
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Expansion of Warehouse Footprint: Costco is committed to aggressive physical expansion, with plans to open approximately 30-35 new warehouses annually. The company opened 27 new warehouses in fiscal year 2025 and aims for another 35 in fiscal year 2026. This expansion includes both domestic and international markets, utilizing innovative real estate approaches such as multi-story warehouses and mixed-use developments to penetrate urban areas previously considered out of reach.
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Growth in Membership and Fee Income: A significant driver of revenue is the steady increase in paid memberships and associated fee income. Membership fee income grew by 14% year-over-year in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, fueled by new member sign-ups and a strong increase in Executive memberships. As of Q2 2026, Costco reported 82.1 million paid members, a 4.8% increase from the prior year, with Executive memberships growing by 9.5% to 40.4 million. Analysts consistently highlight strong membership growth as a core strength.
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Enhancement of E-commerce and Digital Capabilities: Costco is making strategic investments in its digital presence and capabilities. E-commerce sales increased over 15% in fiscal year 2025, exceeding $19.6 billion. Digitally enabled comparable sales surged by 20.5% in Q1 2026 and 22.6% in Q2 2026, supported by substantial growth in e-commerce site traffic and app visits. The company is also implementing personalization capabilities for product recommendations and improving in-warehouse technology to enhance the member experience.
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Increased Traffic and Average Transaction Size: Initiatives aimed at improving the shopping experience and offering competitive pricing are driving higher store traffic and increasing the average transaction size. Worldwide traffic increased by 3.1% and the average transaction was up 3.2% in Q1 2026. Price reductions on essential items have contributed to traffic growth, while "meaningful improvements in the speed of checkout" and targeted upgrades in the member experience support both sales and productivity.
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Effective Pricing Strategies and Private Label Growth: Costco's disciplined approach to maintaining low prices and leveraging its Kirkland Signature private label continues to attract and retain members. The Kirkland Signature brand consistently grows in sales penetration, offering high-quality value to members. Analysts emphasize Costco's effective pricing strategies and its philosophy of reinvesting in price as key factors enabling sustained market share gains and long-term earnings growth.
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Capital Allocation Decisions of Costco Wholesale (COST) over the Last 3-5 Years
Share Repurchases
- Costco engaged in significant share repurchases, totaling $903 million in fiscal year 2025.
- The company repurchased $700 million in fiscal year 2024 and $676 million in fiscal year 2023.
- In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, Costco executed $420 million in share buybacks.
Share Issuance
- No significant share issuances with dollar amounts were identified for Costco Wholesale over the last 3-5 years.
Inbound Investments
- No significant inbound investments by third-parties in Costco Wholesale were identified over the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- No significant strategic outbound investments made by Costco Wholesale in other companies were identified over the last 3-5 years.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for Costco have shown a consistent increase, with $5,498 million in fiscal year 2025, $4,710 million in fiscal year 2024, and $4,323 million in fiscal year 2023.
- Costco intends to spend approximately $6,000 million to $6,500 million on capital expenditures during fiscal year 2026.
- The primary focus of these expenditures is on acquiring land, buildings, and equipment for new and remodeled warehouses, information systems, manufacturing and distribution facilities, as well as expanding the global footprint with plans for 28 net new warehouses in fiscal year 2026 and over 30 annually in subsequent years.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 184.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 373.0 |
| Rev LTM | 230,090 |
| Op Inc LTM | 15,982 |
| FCF LTM | 6,131 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 10,682 |
| CFO LTM | 16,516 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,210 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 373.0 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 23.9 |
| P/EBIT | 20.3 |
| P/E | 31.4 |
| P/CFO | 17.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 48.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -11.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operation of membership warehouses | 275,235 | 254,453 | 242,290 | 226,954 | 195,929 |
| Total | 275,235 | 254,453 | 242,290 | 226,954 | 195,929 |
| $ Mil | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Operations | 1,632 | 1,395 | 1,310 | 1,121 | |
| Canadian Operations | 668 | 621 | 547 | 215 | |
| Other International Operations | 459 | 423 | 220 | 150 | 50 |
| Canada | 354 | ||||
| United States | 1,273 | ||||
| Total | 2,759 | 2,439 | 2,077 | 1,777 | 1,386 |
| $ Mil | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Operations | 18,401 | 18,558 | 18,247 | 12,108 | |
| Other International Operations | 4,502 | 4,462 | 2,421 | 2,110 | 1,267 |
| Canadian Operations | 4,237 | 3,741 | 3,147 | 1,718 | |
| Canada | 2,641 | ||||
| United States | 17,228 | ||||
| Total | 27,140 | 26,761 | 23,815 | 21,979 | 15,093 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $935.03 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 415.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/09/1986 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -14.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $968.24 | $953.98 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -3.4% | -2.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 23.1% | 19.8% |
| Downside Capture | -91.73 | -23.82 |
| Upside Capture | -111.10 | -18.43 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -31.3% | -7.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.28 | -0.52 | -0.21 | -0.14 | -0.08 | 0.49 |
| Up Beta | -0.28 | 0.05 | 0.31 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.56 |
| Down Beta | 0.01 | 0.40 | 0.04 | -0.18 | -0.12 | 0.47 |
| Up Capture | -51% | -99% | -41% | -11% | -10% | 22% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 32 | 64 | 122 | 403 |
| Down Capture | -25% | -102% | -77% | -48% | -20% | 63% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 31 | 61 | 129 | 347 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 0.1% | 19.7% | -0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.2% | 13.9% | 0.13 | 58.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | -7.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.61 | -4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.7% | 19.1% | 1.42 | 3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.69 | 17.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.2% | 42.9% | -1.32 | -3.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 19.2% | 22.9% | 0.72 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.1% | 13.5% | 0.23 | 62.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 52.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 6.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 41.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.3% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 19.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 20.9% | 22.0% | 0.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.0% | 14.8% | 0.34 | 63.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 55.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 12.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 41.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.1% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 13.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/28/2026 | -3.9% | -2.3% | -4.9% |
| 3/5/2026 | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
| 12/11/2025 | -0.0% | -3.0% | 6.5% |
| 9/25/2025 | -2.9% | -2.8% | -1.2% |
| 5/29/2025 | 3.1% | 0.2% | -1.9% |
| 3/6/2025 | -6.1% | -13.2% | -10.7% |
| 12/12/2024 | 0.1% | -3.4% | -6.6% |
| 9/26/2024 | -1.8% | -2.9% | -1.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 2.4% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.9% | -2.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.6% | 5.5% | 13.1% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -13.2% | -10.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/28/2026 | -3.9% | -2.3% | -4.9% |
| 3/5/2026 | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
| 12/11/2025 | -0.0% | -3.0% | 6.5% |
| 9/25/2025 | -2.9% | -2.8% | -1.2% |
| 5/29/2025 | 3.1% | 0.2% | -1.9% |
| 3/6/2025 | -6.1% | -13.2% | -10.7% |
| 12/12/2024 | 0.1% | -3.4% | -6.6% |
| 9/26/2024 | -1.8% | -2.9% | -1.1% |
| 5/30/2024 | -0.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% |
| 3/7/2024 | -7.6% | -6.8% | -9.4% |
| 12/14/2023 | 4.4% | 5.5% | 10.9% |
| 9/26/2023 | 1.9% | 2.2% | -0.5% |
| 5/25/2023 | 4.3% | 5.4% | 9.0% |
| 3/3/2023 | 1.6% | -0.9% | 4.6% |
| 12/9/2022 | 1.0% | -4.5% | 0.3% |
| 9/23/2022 | 3.0% | 1.3% | 6.6% |
| 5/26/2022 | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 3/4/2022 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 9.4% |
| 12/9/2021 | 6.6% | 5.4% | -1.1% |
| 9/23/2021 | 3.3% | -0.8% | 6.5% |
| 5/27/2021 | -2.4% | 0.0% | 2.3% |
| 3/4/2021 | -0.5% | 3.0% | 13.1% |
| 12/10/2020 | 0.6% | -0.7% | -2.3% |
| 9/24/2020 | -1.3% | 3.3% | 8.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 2.4% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.9% | -2.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.6% | 5.5% | 13.1% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -13.2% | -10.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 05/31/2026 | 06/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2026 | 03/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 12/17/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 10/08/2025 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 12/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/09/2024 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 10/11/2023 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 10/05/2022 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 05/31/2026 | 06/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2026 | 03/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 12/17/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 10/08/2025 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 12/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/09/2024 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 10/11/2023 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 10/05/2022 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2022 | 03/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2021 | 12/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2021 | 10/06/2021 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2021 | 06/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2021 | 03/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2020 | 12/16/2020 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2020 | 10/07/2020 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2020 | 06/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2020 | 03/12/2020 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2019 | 12/23/2019 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2019 | 10/11/2019 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/14/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denman, Kenneth D | Direct | Sell | 6252026 | 957.45 | 885 | 847,345 | 4,575,604 | Form | |
| 2 | Frates, Caton | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 993.00 | 700 | 695,100 | 5,774,296 | Form |
| 3 | Adamo, Claudine | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 1003.02 | 730 | 732,205 | 6,139,687 | Form |
| 4 | Jones, Teresa A | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 1232026 | 986.26 | 850 | 838,318 | 4,169,700 | Form |
| 5 | Decker, Susan L | Direct | Sell | 1202026 | 955.00 | 458 | 437,390 | 8,147,999 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denman, Kenneth D | Direct | Sell | 6252026 | 957.45 | 885 | 847,345 | 4,575,604 | Form | |
| 2 | Frates, Caton | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 993.00 | 700 | 695,100 | 5,774,296 | Form |
| 3 | Adamo, Claudine | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 1003.02 | 730 | 732,205 | 6,139,687 | Form |
| 4 | Jones, Teresa A | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 1232026 | 986.26 | 850 | 838,318 | 4,169,700 | Form |
| 5 | Decker, Susan L | Direct | Sell | 1202026 | 955.00 | 458 | 437,390 | 8,147,999 | Form | |
| 6 | Miller, Russell D | Sr. Executive Vice President | Miller Family Trust | Sell | 1122026 | 916.32 | 1,500 | 1,374,480 | 7,550,477 | Form |
| 7 | Polit, Javier | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12312025 | 862.89 | 558 | 481,759 | 8,792,548 | Form |
| 8 | Polit, Javier | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12312025 | 867.21 | 2,049 | 1,776,904 | 9,320,634 | Form |
| 9 | Wilcox, William Richard | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 930.13 | 2,400 | 2,232,312 | 1,860,260 | Form |
| 10 | Barbre, Tiffany Marie | Direct | Sell | 10242025 | 934.62 | 1,239 | 1,158,353 | 4,818,386 | Form | |
| 11 | Adamo, Claudine | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10242025 | 935.68 | 2,700 | 2,526,336 | 6,410,528 | Form |
| 12 | Miller, Russell D | Sr. Executive Vice President | Miller Family Trust | Sell | 10012025 | 915.00 | 3,381 | 3,093,615 | 8,912,100 | Form |
| 13 | Frates, Caton | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 9302025 | 910.02 | 1,540 | 1,401,431 | 8,448,347 | Form |
| 14 | Jones, Teresa A | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 992.05 | 600 | 595,230 | 2,343,346 | Form |
| 15 | Rubanenko, Yoram | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 7152025 | 974.96 | 4,000 | 3,899,852 | 5,629,468 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 26, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerald Advisors, LLC | $620.3 Mil | 77.0% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC | $221.7 Mil | 17.1% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Aljian Capital Management, LLC | $54.5 Mil | 11.2% | 131 | Hold | 13F |
| Unio Capital LLC | $50.9 Mil | 10.9% | 21 | TRIM -10.3% | 13F |
| Capital Counsel Llc/Ny | $237.6 Mil | 10.1% | 62 | Hold | 13F |
| Provident Trust Co | $468.7 Mil | 9.8% | 22 | TRIM -14.1% | 13F |
| Rempart Asset Management Inc. | $27.9 Mil | 5.9% | 36 | TRIM -10.6% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $16.7 Mil | 5.0% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $18.2 Mil | 4.5% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $22.6 Mil | 4.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Defender Capital, LLC. | $11.9 Mil | 4.2% | 34 | Hold | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $39.9 Mil | 3.8% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $18.4 Mil | 3.4% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| FFG Partners, LLC | $8.5 Mil | 3.4% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $148.0 Mil | 3.2% | 32 | TRIM -6.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager |
|---|
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $64.5 Mil | 1.8% | 18 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Agave Capital Management Ltd | $14.2 Mil | 2.4% | 23 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Wilsey Asset Management Inc | $10.9 Mil | 1.7% | 29 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Provident Trust Co | $468.7 Mil | 9.8% | 22 | TRIM -14.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Rempart Asset Management Inc. | $27.9 Mil | 5.9% | 36 | TRIM -10.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Unio Capital LLC | $50.9 Mil | 10.9% | 21 | TRIM -10.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $148.0 Mil | 3.2% | 32 | TRIM -6.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerald Advisors, LLC | $620.3 Mil | 77.0% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Provident Trust Co | $468.7 Mil | 9.8% | 22 | TRIM -14.1% | 13F |
| Capital Counsel Llc/Ny | $237.6 Mil | 10.1% | 62 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC | $221.7 Mil | 17.1% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $148.0 Mil | 3.2% | 32 | TRIM -6.8% | 13F |
| Aljian Capital Management, LLC | $54.5 Mil | 11.2% | 131 | Hold | 13F |
| Unio Capital LLC | $50.9 Mil | 10.9% | 21 | TRIM -10.3% | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $39.9 Mil | 3.8% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Rempart Asset Management Inc. | $27.9 Mil | 5.9% | 36 | TRIM -10.6% | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $22.6 Mil | 4.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $18.4 Mil | 3.4% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $18.2 Mil | 4.5% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $16.7 Mil | 5.0% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Defender Capital, LLC. | $11.9 Mil | 4.2% | 34 | Hold | 13F |
| FFG Partners, LLC | $8.5 Mil | 3.4% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
COST Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Costco's core sales remain strong, with comparable sales up 6.6%. However, slowing new member growth, now at 4.1%, and management's guidance for potential renewal rate declines create uncertainty. Active price investments are also pressuring margins, making the current high valuation appear vulnerable to any further deceleration in its key profit drivers.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring Membership + High-Volume Transactional(Total Paid Members * Renewal Rate) * (Shopping Frequency * Average Ticket Size) Growth in high-margin membership fee revenue, coupled with operating leverage on SG&A expenses driven by positive comparable sales growth.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Yes, the model is resilient. Strong comparable sales growth of 6.6% and a worldwide member renewal rate of 89.7% confirm the value proposition is resonating, driving market share gains.
- Comparable sales, excluding fuel and FX, grew 6.6% in the latest quarter.
- Worldwide member renewal rate was stable at 89.7% at the end of Q3.
- Digitally-enabled comparable sales increased 21% in the third quarter.
- Inventory grew 4.4% while revenue grew 11.6%, signaling efficient operations.
- The company plans to open up to 35 new warehouses in fiscal 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
New paid member growth has slowed to 4.1%, the 'lowest level in some time.' Management is also guiding for a potential 'slight decline' in renewal rates and is actively investing in price, which recently drove core merchandise margins down by 9 basis points.
- Total paid member growth slowed to 4.1% year-over-year.
- Management guided for a potential 'slight decline' in renewal rates.
- Core-on-core merchandise margins were lower by 9 basis points in Q3.
- The stock's P/E ratio is elevated at 46.7.
- Competitor Walmart is investing in price with 7,200 'rollbacks'.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Comparable Sales Growth (adjusted for fuel & FX) | 6.6% in Q3 FY2026 - Stable | Comparable sales growth has remained remarkably stable in the mid-to-high single digits over the past three quarters, fluctuating within a tight range of 6.4% to 6.7%. This indicates consistent underlying consumer demand, stripping out the volatility from gasoline prices and currency movements. |
| Membership Renewal Rate | 89.7% worldwide at the end of Q3 FY2026 - Stable | The worldwide renewal rate has stabilized at 89.7% for three consecutive quarters. This follows a minor 10-basis-point dip from 89.8% at the end of FY2025. Management attributes the slight historical pressure to a growing mix of members who sign up online, who renew at a slightly lower rate. |
| Comparable Sales Growth (Total Company, excluding FX and gas prices) | 7% (Q3 FY2026) | Measures underlying sales growth from warehouses and digital channels open for more than one year, indicating the health of the core business by tracking shopping frequency and average ticket size. |
| Total Paid Members | 82,900 (End of Q3 FY2026) | Represents the size of the paying customer base that generates recurring fee revenue and drives merchandise sales volume. |
| Digitally-enabled comparable sales growth | 21% (Q3 FY2026) | Tracks the growth of sales initiated through a digital device, including e-commerce and Costco Travel, reflecting the company's adaptation to omnichannel retail trends. |
Strong Comps vs. Slowing Membership
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the 6.6% adjusted comparable sales growth, which outpaces peers like Walmart. They see this as proof the core value proposition is winning share, making the membership trends a secondary, manageable issue.
CORE TENSION
Can 6.6% comp sales growth offset the drag from 4.1% member growth, which the market punished?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bears. The market's -5.0% post-earnings reaction and management's cautious guidance on renewal rates outweigh the strong, but potentially lagging, sales data.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see slowing 4.1% paid member growth and guided renewal rate pressure as leading indicators of saturation. They argue this erosion of the primary profit driver makes the high valuation unsustainable, regardless of current sales strength.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
in the remainder of fiscal 2026 | New Warehouse Openings Watch: The company plans to open 13 additional new warehouses, including one relocation. |
8/20/2026 | Peer Competitive Read-Across Watch: Commentary from Walmart on consumer health, promotional intensity, and margin outlook, which could reset sector expectations. |
9/9/2026 | Kroger Earnings Report Watch: Peer Kroger (KR) is scheduled to report earnings. |
9/24/2026 | Margin Squeeze Confirmation Watch: Reported gross margin percentage and management's forward guidance on the balance between value pricing and profitability. |
9/24/2026 | Membership Renewal Rate Decline Watch: The reported worldwide and U.S./Canada renewal rates to see if the guided-to decline materializes or worsens. |
10/28/2026 | Amazon Earnings Report Watch: Peer Amazon.com (AMZN) is scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-08 | June Sales Results Released Details: Costco reported net sales of $29.24 billion for the five weeks ended July 5, 2026, an increase of 10.6 percent from the prior year. | -3.6% $947.50 -> $912.97 |
2026-07-07 | New Product Lawsuit Filed Details: A consumer lawsuit was filed against Costco alleging it knowingly sold Orgain organic vegan protein powder contaminated with heavy metals. | +0.3% $950.25 -> $953.13 |
2026-06-03 | May Sales Results Released Details: Costco reported net sales of $24.01 billion for the four weeks ended May 31, 2026, an increase of 14.5 percent from the prior year. | +1.9% $954.27 -> $972.35 |
2026-05-28 | Stock Reacts to Q3 Earnings Details: Around the earnings call dated 2026-05-28, the two-day stock reaction was -5.0% versus 1.0% for the S&P 500. | -4.7% $1003.69 -> $956.32 |
2026-05-28 | Q3 Earnings Reported Details: Costco reported Q3 results with net income of $2.19 billion, or $4.93 per diluted share, on net sales of $69.2 billion. | -4.7% $1003.69 -> $956.32 |
2026-03-05 | Stock Reacts to Q2 Earnings Details: The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call dated 2026-03-05 was -1.0% versus -2.0% for the S&P 500. | -0.9% $1005.28 -> $996.65 |
2026-03-05 | Q2 Earnings Reported Details: Costco reported fiscal second-quarter 2026 results, highlighting solid comparable sales growth and continued momentum in digitally-enabled transactions. | -0.9% $1005.28 -> $996.65 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: COST trades at roughly 23% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (1.6x the market), around the 90th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
WMT - Walmart
Defensive Retail ExposureWalmart offers exposure to a different consumer demographic that may be more defensive in a downturn. It is also aggressively investing in e-commerce, with sales up 26%, and higher-margin businesses like advertising.
AMZN - Amazon.com
Digital-First GrowthAmazon provides exposure to higher-growth e-commerce and cloud computing markets. Its sophisticated logistics network and digital-native model offer a different risk profile than Costco's physical-first warehouse footprint.
Costco is a membership club that monetizes loyalty, using its scale and operational efficiency to sell goods at near-breakeven margins, with profits derived almost entirely from the predictable, recurring stream of membership fees.
The company's core strategy is to use its "pricing authority" to drive high sales volumes and rapid inventory turnover. This is enabled by a no-frills, self-service warehouse model and a limited SKU count. The membership fee is not just an access pass but the primary source of profit, creating a powerful flywheel where member loyalty and growth directly fuel the company's ability to offer lower prices, which in turn attracts and retains more members.
Accelerating comparable sales growth, rising member renewal rates, successful new warehouse openings in international markets, and continued growth in Executive memberships.
Sustained declines in member renewal rates, slowing traffic and comparable sales, significant margin erosion due to competitive pressure without offsetting volume gains, or failure to adapt to omnichannel shifts.
Short-term fluctuations in gasoline prices or quarterly gross margin on merchandise, as the business model is designed to absorb these while focusing on long-term member value.
Repricing Catalyst
Successful execution of new warehouse openings, particularly internationally, and continued strong growth in the high-value Executive membership tier, which has a sales penetration of approximately 73.6% of worldwide net sales.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail Resources |
| Mass Market Retailers |
| Store Brands |
| Retail Dive |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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