Costco Wholesale (COST)
Market Price (10/7/2025): $908.76 | Market Cap: $403.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Costco Wholesale (COST)
Market Price (10/7/2025): $908.76
Market Cap: $403.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Attractive cash flow generation CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.3 Bil | Expensive valuation multiples P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 38x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x | |
Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 21% | Yield minus risk free rate is negative ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
Attractive cash flow generation CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.3 Bil |
Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 21% |
Expensive valuation multiples P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 38x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x |
Yield minus risk free rate is negative ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
COST Stock
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
COST Return | 33% | 52% | -19% | 49% | 40% | -0% | 240% |
Peers Return | 48% | 26% | -16% | 10% | 21% | 3% | 115% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
COST Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 56% | |
Peers Win Rate | 58% | 60% | 45% | 60% | 58% | 51% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
COST Max Drawdown | -5% | -17% | -26% | -1% | -2% | -3% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -8% | -30% | -20% | -13% | -15% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, TGT, DG, BJ. See COST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/6/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | COST | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -31.5% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 566 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -13.6% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -22.2% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 28.5% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -48.5% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 94.2% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 701 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Costco Wholesale's stock fell -31.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/7/2022. A -31.5% loss requires a 46.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Costco Wholesale (COST)
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. It offers branded and private-label products in a range of merchandise categories. The company offers sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, liquor, and tobacco and deli products; appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, garden and patio products, sporting goods, tires, toys and seasonal products, office supplies, automotive care products, postages, tickets, apparel, small appliances, furniture, domestics, housewares, special order kiosks, and jewelry; and meat, produce, service deli, and bakery products. It also operates pharmacies, opticals, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and tire installation centers, as well as 636 gas stations; and offers business delivery, travel, same-day grocery, and various other services online in various countries. As of August 29, 2021, the company operated 815 membership warehouses, including 564 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 105 in Canada, 39 in Mexico, 30 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 16 in South Korea, 14 in Taiwan, 12 in Australia, 3 in Spain, 1 in Iceland, 1 in France, and 1 in China. It also operates e-commerce websites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia. The company was formerly known as Costco Companies, Inc. and changed its name to Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Costco Wholesale Corporation was founded in 1976 and is based in Issaquah, Washington.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past trade ideas related to COST and Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -4.4% |
09302025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.9% | -14.9% | -21.1% |
06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
05312025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.8% | -14.8% | -22.4% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -4.4% |
09302025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.9% | -14.9% | -21.1% |
06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
05312025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.8% | -14.8% | -22.4% |
See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Costco Wholesale
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 100.12 |
Mkt Cap | 222.4 |
Rev LTM | 187,208 |
Op Inc LTM | 7,754 |
FCF LTM | 5,130 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 5,067 |
CFO LTM | 9,406 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 9,465 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 2.4% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 222.4 |
P/S | 0.9 |
P/EBIT | 20.4 |
P/E | 26.9 |
P/CFO | 16.0 |
Total Yield | 4.2% |
Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
D/E | 0.2 |
Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -5.2% |
3M Rtn | -9.8% |
6M Rtn | 3.9% |
12M Rtn | 11.3% |
3Y Rtn | 60.6% |
1M Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
3M Excs Rtn | -17.9% |
6M Excs Rtn | -29.7% |
12M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -28.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
9/25/2025 | -2.9% | -2.8% | |
5/29/2025 | 3.1% | 0.2% | -1.9% |
3/6/2025 | -6.1% | -13.2% | -10.7% |
12/12/2024 | 0.1% | -3.4% | -6.6% |
9/26/2024 | -1.8% | -2.9% | -1.1% |
5/30/2024 | -0.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% |
3/7/2024 | -7.6% | -6.8% | -9.4% |
12/14/2023 | 4.4% | 5.5% | 10.9% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 14 | 14 | 14 |
# Negative | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Median Positive | 1.8% | 2.6% | 5.5% |
Median Negative | -1.8% | -2.9% | -3.3% |
Max Positive | 6.6% | 5.5% | 13.1% |
Max Negative | -7.6% | -13.2% | -10.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
5312025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 5/11/2025 |
2282025 | 3132025 | 10-Q 2/16/2025 |
11302024 | 12192024 | 10-Q 11/24/2024 |
8312024 | 10092024 | 10-K 9/1/2024 |
5312024 | 6062024 | 10-Q 5/12/2024 |
2292024 | 3132024 | 10-Q 2/18/2024 |
11302023 | 12202023 | 10-Q 11/26/2023 |
8312023 | 10112023 | 10-K 9/3/2023 |
5312023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 5/7/2023 |
2282023 | 3092023 | 10-Q 2/12/2023 |
11302022 | 12292022 | 10-Q 11/20/2022 |
8312022 | 10052022 | 10-K 8/28/2022 |
5312022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 5/8/2022 |
2282022 | 3102022 | 10-Q 2/13/2022 |
11302021 | 12222021 | 10-Q 11/21/2021 |
8312021 | 10062021 | 10-K 8/29/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Jones Teresa A. | Executive Vice President | 8222025 | Sell | 992.05 | 600 | 595,230 | 2,343,346 | Form |
1 | Rubanenko Yoram | Executive Vice President | 7152025 | Sell | 974.96 | 4,000 | 3,899,852 | 5,629,468 | Form |
2 | DECKER SUSAN L | 6202025 | Sell | 980.00 | 546 | 535,080 | 11,301,297 | Form | |
3 | Callans Patrick J | Executive Vice President | 6102025 | Sell | 1002.77 | 3,000 | 3,008,298 | 58,704,666 | Form |
4 | Riel Pierre | Executive Vice President | 6092025 | Sell | 1014.15 | 2,000 | 2,028,294 | 8,326,396 | Form |
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