Tearsheet

Costco Wholesale (COST)


Market Price (10/7/2025): $908.76 | Market Cap: $403.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Costco Wholesale (COST)


Market Price (10/7/2025): $908.76
Market Cap: $403.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Investment Highlights

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.3 Bil
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 38x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.3 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 38x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x
3 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

COST Stock


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
COST Return33%52%-19%49%40%-0%240%
Peers Return48%26%-16%10%21%3%115%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
COST Win Rate75%75%50%75%50%56% 
Peers Win Rate58%60%45%60%58%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
COST Max Drawdown-5%-17%-26%-1%-2%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-8%-30%-20%-13%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, TGT, DG, BJ. See COST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/6/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventCOSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-31.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven566 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-13.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven15.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven101 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-48.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven701 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Costco Wholesale's stock fell -31.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/7/2022. A -31.5% loss requires a 46.0% gain to breakeven.

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About Costco Wholesale (COST)

Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. It offers branded and private-label products in a range of merchandise categories. The company offers sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, liquor, and tobacco and deli products; appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, garden and patio products, sporting goods, tires, toys and seasonal products, office supplies, automotive care products, postages, tickets, apparel, small appliances, furniture, domestics, housewares, special order kiosks, and jewelry; and meat, produce, service deli, and bakery products. It also operates pharmacies, opticals, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and tire installation centers, as well as 636 gas stations; and offers business delivery, travel, same-day grocery, and various other services online in various countries. As of August 29, 2021, the company operated 815 membership warehouses, including 564 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 105 in Canada, 39 in Mexico, 30 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 16 in South Korea, 14 in Taiwan, 12 in Australia, 3 in Spain, 1 in Iceland, 1 in France, and 1 in China. It also operates e-commerce websites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia. The company was formerly known as Costco Companies, Inc. and changed its name to Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Costco Wholesale Corporation was founded in 1976 and is based in Issaquah, Washington.

Better Bets than Costco Wholesale (COST)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past trade ideas related to COST and Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
IPAR_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.9%-3.9%-4.4%
TAP_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
STZ_7312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper07312025STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-14.9%-14.9%-21.1%
SJM_6302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302025SJMJM SmuckerDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%0.0%
BF-B_5312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-14.8%-14.8%-22.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
IPAR_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.9%-3.9%-4.4%
TAP_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
STZ_7312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper07312025STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-14.9%-14.9%-21.1%
SJM_6302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302025SJMJM SmuckerDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%0.0%
BF-B_5312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-14.8%-14.8%-22.4%

See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Costco Wholesale

Financials

COSTAMZNWMTTGTDGBJMedian
NameCostco W.Amazon.c.Walmart Target Dollar G.BJ's Who. 
Mkt Price910.94220.90102.7088.9697.5490.10100.12
Mkt Cap404.42,349.7819.340.421.511.9222.4
Rev LTM268,776670,038693,153105,64041,65220,912187,208
Op Inc LTM10,08476,19028,9885,4241,7908617,754
FCF LTM7,31713,48113,7532,9441,8502825,130
FCF 3Y Avg6,85221,67714,9863,2821,2112855,067
CFO LTM12,426121,13738,4386,3863,1589379,406
CFO 3Y Avg11,46096,97736,7077,4702,7468089,465

Growth & Margins

COSTAMZNWMTTGTDGBJMedian
NameCostco W.Amazon.c.Walmart Target Dollar G.BJ's Who. 
Rev Chg LTM5.9%10.9%4.2%-1.5%5.0%2.5%4.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.3%11.3%5.7%-0.7%5.7%4.7%5.7%
Rev Chg Q8.0%13.3%4.8%-0.9%5.1%3.4%4.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.8%3.0%1.2%-0.2%1.3%0.8%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM3.8%11.4%4.2%5.1%4.3%4.1%4.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.5%7.9%4.0%5.1%5.9%4.0%4.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%0.3%-0.1%-0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM4.6%18.1%5.5%6.0%7.6%4.5%5.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.5%15.8%5.5%7.0%6.8%4.0%6.2%
FCF/Rev LTM2.7%2.0%2.0%2.8%4.4%1.3%2.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.7%3.5%2.3%3.1%3.0%1.4%2.8%

Valuation

COSTAMZNWMTTGTDGBJMedian
NameCostco W.Amazon.c.Walmart Target Dollar G.BJ's Who. 
Mkt Cap404.42,349.7819.340.421.511.9222.4
P/S1.53.51.20.40.50.60.9
P/EBIT38.227.626.37.312.014.420.4
P/E51.633.338.410.318.020.526.9
P/CFO32.519.421.36.36.812.716.0
Total Yield2.2%3.0%3.5%14.8%6.8%4.9%4.2%
Dividend Yield0.3%0.0%0.9%5.1%1.2%0.0%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.0%1.1%2.8%5.6%4.5%2.5%2.7%
D/E0.00.10.10.50.80.20.2
Net D/E-0.00.00.10.40.70.20.1

Returns

COSTAMZNWMTTGTDGBJMedian
NameCostco W.Amazon.c.Walmart Target Dollar G.BJ's Who. 
1M Rtn-5.5%-4.9%2.2%-4.5%-10.7%-7.1%-5.2%
3M Rtn-8.1%-1.2%3.6%-11.5%-16.1%-18.5%-9.8%
6M Rtn0.6%26.0%23.1%-3.6%7.2%-21.3%3.9%
12M Rtn3.7%18.4%28.1%-39.6%18.7%4.2%11.3%
3Y Rtn102.8%92.8%149.0%-35.6%-57.1%28.3%60.6%
1M Excs Rtn-9.4%-8.9%-1.8%-8.5%-14.7%-11.1%-9.2%
3M Excs Rtn-15.7%-7.6%-2.2%-20.1%-21.7%-24.6%-17.9%
6M Excs Rtn-33.2%-3.7%-8.8%-37.8%-26.3%-54.8%-29.7%
12M Excs Rtn-13.8%1.5%10.9%-56.6%4.4%-10.7%-4.6%
3Y Excs Rtn13.1%7.3%56.9%-120.5%-142.1%-64.2%-28.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Operation of membership warehouses242,290226,954195,929166,761152,703
Total242,290226,954195,929166,761152,703


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,542,302
Short Interest: % Change Since 8312025-4.4%
Average Daily Volume1,748,092
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.74
Basic Shares Quantity443,958,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/25/2025-2.9%-2.8% 
5/29/20253.1%0.2%-1.9%
3/6/2025-6.1%-13.2%-10.7%
12/12/20240.1%-3.4%-6.6%
9/26/2024-1.8%-2.9%-1.1%
5/30/2024-0.7%3.3%3.7%
3/7/2024-7.6%-6.8%-9.4%
12/14/20234.4%5.5%10.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141414
# Negative111111
Median Positive1.8%2.6%5.5%
Median Negative-1.8%-2.9%-3.3%
Max Positive6.6%5.5%13.1%
Max Negative-7.6%-13.2%-10.7%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
5312025605202510-Q 5/11/2025
2282025313202510-Q 2/16/2025
113020241219202410-Q 11/24/2024
83120241009202410-K 9/1/2024
5312024606202410-Q 5/12/2024
2292024313202410-Q 2/18/2024
113020231220202310-Q 11/26/2023
83120231011202310-K 9/3/2023
5312023601202310-Q 5/7/2023
2282023309202310-Q 2/12/2023
113020221229202210-Q 11/20/2022
83120221005202210-K 8/28/2022
5312022602202210-Q 5/8/2022
2282022310202210-Q 2/13/2022
113020211222202110-Q 11/21/2021
83120211006202110-K 8/29/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Jones Teresa A.Executive Vice President8222025Sell992.05600595,2302,343,346Form
1Rubanenko YoramExecutive Vice President7152025Sell974.964,0003,899,8525,629,468Form
2DECKER SUSAN L 6202025Sell980.00546535,08011,301,297Form
3Callans Patrick JExecutive Vice President6102025Sell1002.773,0003,008,29858,704,666Form
4Riel PierreExecutive Vice President6092025Sell1014.152,0002,028,2948,326,396Form