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We Forecast Higher Stock Return For Marathon Oil vs. Its Competitor ConocoPhillips

COPMRO Market Cap$125 Bil$18 BilLTM Revenue$48 Bil$5.5 BilCurrent P/S2.63.0Current P/EBIT9.816.1Stock Return Forecast (3Y)-4%8%

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

3-Year Return Depends On [1] Revenue Growth [2] P/S

COPMRO LTM Revenue$48 Bil$5.5 Bilx Revenue Growth [1]1.6%12.4%= Revenue Forecast (3Y)$51 Bil$7.8 Bil x P/S [2]2.42.4 = Market Cap Forecast (3Y)$122 Bil$19 BilMarket Cap Today$125 Bil$18 Bil Stock Return Forecast (3Y)-4%8%

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

[1] How Much Can Revenue Grow In Next 3 Years

Past revenue growth metrics that form basis of our expectation

COPMRO Recent Quarter Growth163.9%116.9%LTM Growth151.1%77.2%Growth During Covid-47.5%-40.5%Pre-Covid Annual Growth15.8%14.3% Annual Growth Forecast1.6%12.4%

(a) LTM = Last 12 months (b) Growth During Covid = Year 2020 growth

(b) Recent quarter growth refers to growth in recent quarter vs. the same quarter one year ago, commonly referred to as y-o-y growth

ConocoPhillips Revenue vs. Marathon Oil Revenue

COP Revenue History & 3Y Forecast (5% cumulative growth)

MRO Revenue History & 3Y Forecast (42% cumulative growth)

[2] Which P/S Scenarios Make Sense

P/S Scenarios & Corresponding 3-Year Returns (in brackets)

P/S & Return ScenariosCOPMRO Current2.6 (5%)3.0 (31%)Expansion3.4 (36%)3.9 (70%)Contraction1.8 (-27%)2.1 (-8.2%)Pre-Covid1.7 (-31%)1.2 (-48%)Historical Average2.3 (-5.4%)2.1 (-6.3%) Scenario Average2.4 (-4.2%)2.4 (7.7%)"Current" refers to ratio as of 3/14/2022

Note: Expansion/contraction considered from current / current('adjusted) P/S levels; NA imples invalid scenario because of extreme unsustainable values

ConocoPhillips P/S vs. Marathon Oil P/S

COP P/S Ratio History

MRO P/S Ratio History

P/S Ratio

Market RatiosCOPMRO Current P/S2.63.0Current P/EBIT9.816.1

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

Revenue Growth & Operating Margin

Financial MetricsCOPMRO Revenue GrowthLast Q Sequential37.4%23.9%Last Q YoY164%117%LTM151%77.2%Last 3 FY32.8%5.2% MarginsLTM Op Margins26.6%18.4%LTM Margin Change vs Last 3 FY9.3%25.5%FCF Margin35.2%59.2%

(a) YoY = year-on-year (b) LTM = Last 12 months (c) FY = fiscal year

COP Operating Income MRO Operating Income

Financial & Market Risk

Risk MetricsCOPMRO Financial RiskDebt as % of Equity15.9%0.2%Cash as % of Assets5.5%3.4% Market RiskMax Drawdown Last 3Y-66.5%-81.9%

(a) Last 3Y = Last 3 years

Note On P/S Justification

=> Stock prices deviate from fair value for extended periods of time based on momentum, macro economy, liquidity, and other factors

=> Therefore, our P/S scenarios does not take into account fairness of current values, and we assign equal probability to all scenarios

=> However, relative assessment of P/S in context of growth, margins and risk, can shed light on likelihood of different P/S scenarios

Past Market Return Comparison vs. Benchmarks

Compare Returns With Benchmark & Trefis Portfolio

201720182019202020212022Total [1]AvgBestReturns COP Return9%14%4%-39%80%36%96% MRO Return-2%-15%-5%-51%146%41%34% S&P 500 Return19%-6%29%16%27%-12%88% Trefis MS Portfolio Return23%-2%34%68%46%-15%233% <---Monthly Win Rates [3] COP Win Rate42%67%50%42%67%100% 61% MRO Win Rate42%58%67%33%75%100% 62%<---S&P 500 Win Rate92%67%83%58%75%0% 62% Trefis Portfolio Win Rate89%58%75%58%83%0% 61% Max Drawdowns [4] COP Max Drawdown-15%-5%-19%-65%-1%0% -18% MRO Max Drawdown-38%-25%-23%-77%0%0% -27% S&P 500 Max Drawdown0%-12%-2%-31%-1%-12% -10%<---Trefis Portfolio Max Drawdown-4%-24%-11%-38%-14%-14% -17% [1] Cumulative total returns since 2017[2] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive[3] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year

COP Stock Return MRO Stock Return

Compare Returns With Relevant Investment Themes That Give Similar Market & Capitalization Exposure

ConocoPhillips

Marathon Oil

=> Inflation Stocks => Large Cap Stocks

FAQ

[1] Why Are We Comparing ConocoPhillips And Marathon Oil?

We compare stocks which share one or more similar characteristicsThis is because the decision to invest often come down to finding the best stocks within the ambit of certain characteristics that suit an investment styleWe compare ConocoPhillips vs. Marathon Oil because they both are industry peers

[2] How Do We Arrive At A Decision?

We favor stocks that offer meaningfully greater expected return in the next 3 yearsThese returns are calculated based on our revenue forecast and Price to Sales Ratio (P/S) scenarios consideredSimilar Price To Sales Ratio (P/S) scenarios are considered for both stocks and each scenario is weighted equally for a given stock

[3] How Do We Forecast Revenue?

We have different methodologies for companies negatively impacted by Covid, and for companies not impacted or positively impacted by CovidDifferent methodologies are essential to capture recovery in case of negative impactFor companies negatively impacted by covid, we consider quarterly revenue recovery trajectory to forecast recovery to pre-covid revenue run rate, and beyond recovery point, we apply average annual growth observed in 3 years prior to covid to simulate return to normal conditionsFor companies registering positive revenue growth during covid, we consider average annual growth prior to covid with certain weightage to growth during covid and last 12 months

[4] Can I See More Such Comparisons For ConocoPhillips And Marathon Oil Peers

Here are some comparisons that you may find useful for ConocoPhillips and Marathon OilConocoPhillips vs EOG Resources: Industry Peers; Which Stock Is A Better Bet?ConocoPhillips vs Exxon Mobil: Industry Peers But Which Stock To Buy?Marathon Oil vs Chevron: Which Stock Is A Better Investment?Marathon Oil vs Exxon Mobil: Which Stock Is A Better Investment? Find all such comparisons on ConocoPhillips Peer Comparisons and Marathon Oil Peer Comparisons

ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil Insights

ConocoPhillips investment ideasConocoPhillips counter-intuitive comparisonConocoPhillips peer comparisonComplete analyses on ConocoPhillips (COP) stockLatest analyses on all stocks

Marathon Oil investment ideasMarathon Oil counter-intuitive comparisonMarathon Oil peer comparisonComplete analyses on Marathon Oil (MRO) stockLatest analyses on all stocks

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