com.insightguru.giraffe.server.utils.PresentationUtil$PresentationTitle@40abcd0a

This site requires JavaScript to function properly.
For help enabling JavaScript click here.

Here are some sample widgets you could interact with from this dashboard:

We Forecast Higher Stock Return For Chipotle Mexican Grill vs. Its Competitor Yum Brands

CMGYUM Market Cap$1.8 Bil$39 BilLTM Revenue$11 Bil$7.2 BilCurrent P/S8.25.4Current P/EBIT45.716.8Stock Return Forecast (3Y)33%11%

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

3-Year Return Depends On [1] Revenue Growth [2] P/S

CMGYUM LTM Revenue$11 Bil$7.2 Bilx Revenue Growth [1]11.8%3.9%= Revenue Forecast (3Y)$14 Bil$7.9 Bil x P/S [2]7.75.4 = Market Cap Forecast (3Y)$118 Bil$44 BilMarket Cap Today$89 Bil$39 Bil Stock Return Forecast (3Y)33%11%

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

[1] How Much Can Revenue Grow In Next 3 Years

Past revenue growth metrics that form basis of our expectation

CMGYUM Recent Quarter Growth13.0%6.9%LTM Growth15.2%2.3%3Y Avg Growth (LTM)12.7%-4.1% Annual Growth Forecast11.8%3.9%

(a) LTM = Last 12 months (b) Growth During Covid = Year 2020 growth

(b) Recent quarter growth refers to growth in recent quarter vs. the same quarter one year ago, commonly referred to as y-o-y growth

Chipotle Mexican Grill Revenue vs. Yum Brands Revenue

CMG Revenue History & 3Y Forecast (40% cumulative growth)

YUM Revenue History & 3Y Forecast (12% cumulative growth)

Note: The years shown in the charts above are fiscal years. => For CMG, FY2023 refers to the fiscal year ending Dec 31, 2023 => For YUM, FY2023 refers to the fiscal year ending Dec 31, 2023

[2] Which P/S Scenarios Make Sense

P/S Scenarios & Corresponding 3-Year Returns (in brackets)

P/S & Return ScenariosCMGYUM Current8.2 (6899%)5.4 (13%)Expansion10.5 (8,938%)5.6 (18%)Contraction5.8 (4,860%)5.1 (7.5%)Historical Average6.5 (5,486%)5.2 (9.4%) Scenario Average7.8 (6,546%)5.4 (12%)"Current" refers to ratio as of 12/12/2024

Note: Expansion/contraction considered from current / current('adjusted) P/S levels; NA imples invalid scenario because of extreme unsustainable values

Chipotle Mexican Grill P/S vs. Yum Brands P/S

CMG P/S Ratio History

YUM P/S Ratio History

P/S Ratio

Market RatiosCMGYUM Current P/S8.25.4Current P/EBIT45.716.8

(a) P/S = Price to Sales (b) P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes

Revenue Growth & Operating Margin

Financial MetricsCMGYUM Revenue GrowthLast Q Sequential-6.0%3.6%Last Q YoY13.0%6.9%LTM15.2%2.3%Last 3 FY18.3%7.9% MarginsLTM Op Margins17.7%32.2%LTM Margin Change vs Last 3 FY2.1%0.4%FCF Margin16.8%22.5%

(a) YoY = year-on-year (b) LTM = Last 12 months (c) FY = fiscal year

CMG Operating Income YUM Operating Income

Financial & Market Risk

Risk MetricsCMGYUM Financial RiskDebt as % of Equity248%28.8%Cash as % of Assets15.2%8.5% Market RiskMax Drawdown Last 3Y-28.8%-19.2%

(a) Last 3Y = Last 3 years

Note On P/S Justification

=> Stock prices deviate from fair value for extended periods of time based on momentum, macro economy, liquidity, and other factors

=> Therefore, our P/S scenarios do not take into account the fairness of current values, and we assign equal probability to all scenarios

=> However, relative assessment of P/S in the context of growth, margins, and risk, can shed light on the likelihood of different P/S scenarios

Past Market Return Comparison vs. Benchmarks

Compare Returns With Benchmark & Trefis Portfolio

201920202021202220232024Total [1]AvgBestReturns CMG Return94%66%26%-21%65%42%586%<===YUM Return11%10%30%-6%4%8%69% S&P 500 Return29%16%27%-19%24%28%141% Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio59%79%42%-5%37%14%560% Monthly Win Rates [3] CMG Win Rate75%67%50%42%67%73% 62% YUM Win Rate67%67%67%33%50%64% 58% S&P 500 Win Rate83%58%75%42%67%82% 68% Trefis Portfolio Win Rate83%67%75%58%50%75% 68%<===Max Drawdowns [4] CMG Max Drawdown0%-44%-6%-31%-2%-3% -14% YUM Max Drawdown-3%-44%-7%-23%-8%-3% -15% S&P 500 Max Drawdown-2%-31%-1%-25%-1%-2% -10%<===Trefis Portfolio Max Drawdown-29%-38%-28%-22%-24%-14% -26% [1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2019[2] 2024 data is for the year till date (YTD)[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year

CMG Stock Return YUM Stock Return

Compare Returns With Relevant Investment Themes That Give Similar Market & Capitalization Exposure

Chipotle Mexican Grill

Yum Brands

=> Mid Cap Stocks

=> Large Cap Stocks

FAQ

[1] Why Are We Comparing Chipotle Mexican Grill And Yum Brands?

We compare stocks that share one or more similar characteristicsThis is because the decision to invest often comes down to finding the best stocks within the ambit of certain characteristics that suit an investment styleWe compare Chipotle Mexican Grill vs. Yum Brands because they are industry peers

[2] How Do We Arrive At A Decision?

We favor stocks that offer meaningfully greater expected return in the next 3 yearsThese returns are calculated based on our revenue forecast and Price to Sales Ratio (P/S) scenarios consideredSimilar Price To Sales Ratio (P/S) scenarios are considered for both stocks and each scenario is weighted equally for a given stock

[3] How Do We Forecast Revenue?

We have different methodologies for companies negatively impacted by Covid, and for companies not impacted or positively impacted by CovidDifferent methodologies are essential to capture recovery in case of negative impactFor companies negatively impacted by covid, we consider quarterly revenue recovery trajectory to forecast recovery to pre-covid revenue run rate, and beyond recovery point, we apply average annual growth observed in 3 years prior to covid to simulate return to normal conditionsFor companies registering positive revenue growth during covid, we consider average annual growth prior to covid with certain weightage to growth during covid and last 12 months

[4] Can I See More Such Comparisons For Chipotle Mexican Grill And Yum Brands Peers

Here are some comparisons that you may find useful for Chipotle Mexican Grill and Yum BrandsChipotle Mexican Grill vs. McDonald's: With Return Forecast Of 7.4%, McDonald's Is A Better BetChipotle Mexican Grill vs. Starbucks: With Return Forecast Of 33%, Chipotle Mexican Grill Is A Better BetYum! Brands vs. McDonald's: With Return Forecast Of 2.3%, Yum! Brands Is A Better BetYum Brands vs. Starbucks: Both Seem Similar Bets Find all such comparisons on Chipotle Mexican Grill Peer Comparisons and Yum Brands Peer Comparisons

Chipotle Mexican Grill and Yum Brands Insights

Chipotle Mexican Grill better betsChipotle Mexican Grill counter-intuitive comparisonChipotle Mexican Grill peer comparisonComplete analyses on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stockLatest analyses on all stocksComparison of Bear Markets of the S&P500

Yum Brands better betsYum Brands counter-intuitive comparisonYum Brands peer comparisonComplete analyses on Yum Brands (YUM) stockLatest analyses on all stocksComparison of Bear Markets of the S&P500

Invest in Market-Beating Trefis Portfolios

Invest in Trefis Strategies

By using the Site, you agree to be bound by our Terms of Use. Financial market data powered by Quotemedia.com. Consensus EPS estimates are from QuoteMedia and are updated every weekday. All rights reserved.

NYSE/AMEX data delayed 20 minutes. NASDAQ and other data delayed 15 minutes unless indicated.

EXPLORE TREFIS