Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
Market Price (4/3/2026): $28.89 | Market Cap: $645.5 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
Market Price (4/3/2026): $28.89Market Cap: $645.5 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.6% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 177% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.9% Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21% Key risksCBRL key risks include [1] a significant decline in customer traffic as its traditional brand misaligns with evolving consumer preferences and [2] a substantial debt load that limits financial flexibility and poses refinancing risks. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 177% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.9% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21% |
| Key risksCBRL key risks include [1] a significant decline in customer traffic as its traditional brand misaligns with evolving consumer preferences and [2] a substantial debt load that limits financial flexibility and poses refinancing risks. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Cracker Barrel's stock gained momentum following a significant beat on its second-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS). The company reported an adjusted EPS of $0.25 for the quarter ended January 30, 2026, substantially exceeding analysts' expectations of -$0.22 by 213.64%. This strong performance helped to mitigate concerns from the prior quarter, where Q1 fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of -$0.74 had missed forecasts.
2. The company provided an improved fiscal 2026 outlook and announced strategic cost-saving initiatives. Following the Q2 results, Cracker Barrel raised the lower end of its fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $85 million, from a previous range that started at $70 million. Management also outlined a corporate restructuring expected to generate $20 million–$25 million in annualized General & Administrative (G&A) savings and reduced its outlook for commodity inflation to 2.0%–2.5% and hourly wage inflation to 2.5%–3.0%. Furthermore, the company expects a net cash benefit of approximately $46 million in Q3 fiscal 2026 from the settlement of litigation, enhancing its financial position.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.5% change in CBRL stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.23 | 28.89 | 14.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,436 | 3,361 | -2.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | 17.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CBRL | 14.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 31.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.4% | 29.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -33.6% change in CBRL stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 43.49 | 28.89 | -33.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,484 | 3,361 | -3.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.2 | -30.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -33.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CBRL | -33.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 22.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.6% | 29.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.8% change in CBRL stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.93 | 28.89 | -23.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,506 | 3,361 | -4.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | -20.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CBRL | -23.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 34.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.2% | 39.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -71.3% change in CBRL stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -70.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 100.73 | 28.89 | -71.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,394 | 3,361 | -1.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 0.2 | -70.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -71.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CBRL | -71.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 29.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 47.9% | 34.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CBRL Return | -1% | -23% | -14% | -28% | -51% | 13% | -74% |
| Peers Return | -2% | -10% | 32% | 61% | -1% | -3% | 80% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CBRL Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 38% | 62% | 65% | 48% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CBRL Max Drawdown | -8% | -34% | -31% | -51% | -52% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -29% | -4% | -14% | -14% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DRI, TXRH, EAT, CAKE, FWRG. See CBRL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CBRL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -66.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 197.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -17.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 332.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 507 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DRI, TXRH, EAT, CAKE, FWRG
In The Past
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's stock fell -64.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/12/2021. A -64.5% loss requires a 181.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL):
- It's like a family restaurant chain such as Denny's or IHOP, but every location also includes a large, country-themed gift shop.
- Essentially, it’s a nationwide chain of restaurants similar to Bob Evans, but each store also operates a significant country-style general store selling gifts and food items.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Restaurant Services: Provides dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
- Retail Goods: Sells a variety of items including decorative and functional home goods, apparel, toys, and specialty food products through its gift shops.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The company Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) sells primarily to individuals.
The major categories of customers it serves are:
- Families and Leisure Travelers: Individuals and groups traveling, often on road trips, who are looking for a family-friendly restaurant and a unique shopping experience. Cracker Barrel's locations, frequently near major highways, cater well to this demographic.
- Local Community Members: Residents living near a Cracker Barrel store who visit for everyday meals, gatherings, or to purchase items from the gift shop.
- Seniors and Retirees: This demographic often appreciates Cracker Barrel's traditional comfort food, value, and nostalgic atmosphere, making it a popular dining choice.
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Julie Felss Masino, President and Chief Executive Officer
Julie Felss Masino was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer for Cracker Barrel in July 2023, assuming the position and an appointment to the Company's Board of Directors on November 1, 2023. She brings over 30 years of experience driving innovation and growth for globally recognized restaurant and retail brands. Before joining Cracker Barrel, Ms. Masino served as President, International of Taco Bell, a subsidiary of Yum! Brands, Inc., from January 2020 to June 2023. Her prior roles include President, SVP and GM Fisher-Price at Mattel, Inc., President and CEO of Sprinkles Cupcakes, and various leadership positions at Starbucks Corporation. She began her career in corporate roles at companies such as Godiva Chocolatier, Coach, J. Crew, and Macy's.
Craig Pommells, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Craig Pommells joined Cracker Barrel in December 2021 as its Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. He is responsible for Internal Audit, Investor Relations, Financial Planning and Analysis, and all Accounting functions. Mr. Pommells possesses more than 20 years of experience within the restaurant industry. Prior to his tenure at Cracker Barrel, he served as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Red Lobster. He also spent over 10 years with Darden Restaurants, holding various finance and business analytics roles.
Doug Hisel, Senior Vice President, Store Operations
Doug Hisel was named Senior Vice President, Store Operations in October 2025. He is a nearly 20-year veteran of Cracker Barrel, having started his career with the company as an Associate Manager in Indianapolis, IN, in 2007. Mr. Hisel has advanced through various operations roles of increasing responsibility, with his most recent position being Vice President, Field Operations. In his current role, he oversees all field operations across the company's stores, as well as operations services.
Bruce Hoffmeister, Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer
Bruce Hoffmeister joined Cracker Barrel in January 2021 as Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer. He is responsible for all aspects of the organization's information technology, security, and digital strategies and initiatives. Before his time at Cracker Barrel, Mr. Hoffmeister worked at Marriott International for over 30 years, where he held numerous finance and technology executive roles, including Global Chief Information Officer.
Mark Spurgin, Senior Vice President, Chief Restaurant Supply Chain Officer
Mark Spurgin joined Cracker Barrel in January 2023 as Senior Vice President, Chief Restaurant Supply Chain Officer. With more than 30 years of supply chain experience, he is responsible for the company's sourcing and supply chain functions, including the procurement of food, beverages, equipment, and supplies. Prior to Cracker Barrel, Mr. Spurgin served as Chief Supply Chain Officer for Restaurant Growth Services. He also previously worked with The Cheesecake Factory and Bloomin' Brands, leading global procurement, logistics, and international supply chain teams.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) are:-
Declining Customer Traffic and Evolving Consumer Preferences
Cracker Barrel faces significant challenges with declining customer traffic and negative comparable store sales. The company's traditional casual dining and country store concept is struggling to maintain relevance amidst intense competition and shifting consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics who may be seeking healthier options or different dining experiences. Management does not expect traffic recovery until 2027 or later, and the brand is perceived as "not as relevant as it once were." This fundamental issue impacts both its restaurant and retail segments. -
Inflationary Pressures on Costs and Margins
The company continues to grapple with substantial inflationary pressures, particularly in commodity and wage costs. Despite cost-saving measures, higher labor expenses due to increased wages and investments in additional labor hours, along with rising food prices, are consistently impacting operational performance and reducing profit margins. These pressures make it difficult for Cracker Barrel to maintain profitability in a competitive and discretionary consumer environment. -
High Debt Levels and Financial Leverage
Cracker Barrel relies heavily on debt financing, with a significant total debt load. This high leverage, combined with a relatively low return on equity (ROE) and weak interest expense coverage, raises concerns about the company's financial flexibility and risk profile. Such a debt structure can pose challenges, especially in a period of declining revenues and constrained profitability.
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The addressable markets for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's main products and services in the U.S. are as follows:
- Restaurant Services: The United States full-service restaurant market was valued at approximately USD 371.9 billion in 2025. This market is projected to reach USD 715.8 billion by 2032.
- Gift Shop Items:
- General Gift Retailing: The U.S. gifts retailing market was valued at USD 24.18 billion in 2024. This market is expected to reach USD 37.10 billion by 2032.
- Specialty Food Items: The U.S. specialty food stores market size was USD 32.4 billion in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) is focusing on several key initiatives to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years, as outlined in its strategic transformation plan and recent commentary. Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth:- Menu Innovation and Optimization: Cracker Barrel plans to refine and optimize its menu by introducing new "craveable items" while maintaining affordable pricing for its staple offerings. This strategy aims to broaden its appeal, including attracting a younger demographic, and enhance the overall dining experience to boost restaurant sales.
- Expansion of Digital and Off-Premise Channels: The company is focused on strengthening its digital presence and growing its off-premise business, which includes catering and third-party delivery partnerships. Enhancing the e-commerce platform for retail sales is also a key part of this strategy to diversify revenue streams and cater to evolving consumer shopping habits.
- Store Remodels and Enhanced Guest Experience: Cracker Barrel is investing in evolving its store and guest experience through a significant store remodel initiative, which is expected to accelerate after a test phase. These investments are designed to improve the integrated restaurant-retail environment, thereby aiming to increase customer traffic and sales.
- Growth of Loyalty Program and Personalization: The Cracker Barrel Rewards loyalty program is a significant focus, with efforts to enhance personalization capabilities using AI-driven learning models. This is intended to further drive incremental sales and traffic by increasing customer engagement and retention.
- Strategic Pricing Initiatives: The company has implemented strategic pricing adjustments which have contributed to revenue. While mindful of market dynamics, continued effective pricing strategies are expected to support revenue growth, contributing to an increased average check, assuming challenges with menu mix and traffic are managed.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. announced a new share repurchase program on September 17, 2025, authorizing the repurchase of up to $100 million of its outstanding common stock.
- This new authorization for share repurchases aligns with a modified capital allocation policy to support increased investments in the business and followed a reduction in the quarterly dividend.
- The company reportedly plans to use funds saved from canceling a remodeling project for this $100 million stock buyback program.
Share Issuance
- During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Cracker Barrel completed the issuance and sale of $345 million aggregate principal amount of 1.75% Convertible Senior Notes due in 2030.
- The number of shares outstanding for Cracker Barrel showed a slight increase from 22.21 million in 2024 to 22.28 million in 2025, and remained at 22.28 million as of March 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- In fiscal 2025, Cracker Barrel invested $158.6 million in capital expenditures. These expenditures were primarily allocated to store maintenance ($105 million), remodels ($20 million), technology and strategic initiatives ($19 million), and new store openings ($15 million).
- For fiscal 2026, the company anticipates capital expenditures to be between $135 million and $150 million. The majority of these projected expenditures are related to maintenance, with no planned spending on new remodels.
- Cracker Barrel plans to open 2 new Cracker Barrel stores in fiscal 2026.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CBRL.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
| 05312025 | CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -49.2% | -50.2% | -56.0% |
| 09302023 | CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.2% | -26.5% | -42.9% |
| 03312020 | CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.4% | 113.2% | -16.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 99.96 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 4,720 |
| Op Inc LTM | 369 |
| FCF LTM | 245 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 213 |
| CFO LTM | 516 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 403 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.3 |
| P/E | 18.9 |
| P/CFO | 8.6 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 48.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $28.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/07/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -59.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $30.17 | $40.63 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -4.2% | -28.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 56.6% | 57.7% |
| Downside Capture | 0.58 | 1.13 |
| Upside Capture | 222.76 | 104.10 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.5% | 34.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.98 | 1.31 | 1.37 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| Up Beta | -3.03 | -0.42 | -1.81 | -1.53 | 0.96 | 1.10 |
| Down Beta | 1.49 | 2.51 | 2.07 | 1.46 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| Up Capture | 21% | 146% | 245% | 54% | 109% | 40% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 22 | 30 | 55 | 112 | 340 |
| Down Capture | 157% | 97% | 110% | 153% | 135% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 20 | 33 | 70 | 138 | 404 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CBRL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBRL | -28.0% | 57.6% | -0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 9.1% | 23.7% | 0.31 | 39.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 19.0% | 0.67 | 34.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.5% | 28.0% | 1.46 | -4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.2% | 17.7% | 0.77 | 8.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 16.5% | 0.04 | 32.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.1% | 44.0% | -0.38 | 20.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CBRL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBRL | -27.2% | 45.2% | -0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.3% | 23.7% | 0.23 | 41.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 37.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 17.8% | 1.00 | 1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 3.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 33.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.3% | 56.5% | 0.30 | 18.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CBRL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBRL | -11.5% | 42.4% | -0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 21.9% | 0.50 | 46.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 42.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.0% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 40.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.5% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 14.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/4/2026 | 1.5% | -9.0% | -5.6% |
| 12/9/2025 | 3.5% | -3.8% | 11.1% |
| 9/17/2025 | -7.6% | -11.7% | -18.8% |
| 6/5/2025 | -7.2% | -3.7% | 14.9% |
| 3/6/2025 | 7.6% | 8.7% | -10.4% |
| 12/4/2024 | -1.8% | -6.6% | 0.4% |
| 9/19/2024 | -1.1% | 4.9% | 19.9% |
| 5/16/2024 | -14.5% | -20.3% | -21.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 7 | 9 |
| # Negative | 17 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -6.6% | -9.3% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 23.4% | 19.9% |
| Max Negative | -14.5% | -20.3% | -21.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/26/2023 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/27/2022 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/07/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 3/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 3.24 Bil | 3.25 Bil | 3.27 Bil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 3.25 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 85.00 Mil | 92.50 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 2.8% | Raised | Guidance: 90.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Commodity inflation | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | -25.0% | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.03 for 2026 |
| 2026 Hourly wage inflation | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | -21.4% | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.04 for 2026 |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 105.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | -6.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 117.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 12/9/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue | 3.20 Bil | 3.25 Bil | 3.30 Bil | -4.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.40 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 70.00 Mil | 90.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | -47.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 170.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Commodity Inflation | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.03 for 2026 |
| 2026 Hourly Wage Inflation | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.04 for 2026 |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 110.00 Mil | 117.50 Mil | 125.00 Mil | -17.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 142.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gmt, Capital Corp | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 27.10 | 42,400 | 1,149,040 | 59,560,380 | Form | |
| 2 | Gmt, Capital Corp | Direct | Sell | 12312025 | 25.56 | 42,400 | 1,083,744 | 57,259,512 | Form | |
| 3 | Gmt, Capital Corp | Direct | Sell | 12262025 | 26.03 | 42,400 | 1,103,672 | 59,416,078 | Form | |
| 4 | Gmt, Capital Corp | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 26.37 | 42,400 | 1,118,088 | 61,310,250 | Form | |
| 5 | Gmt, Capital Corp | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 26.13 | 42,400 | 1,107,912 | 62,968,074 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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