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Here are a few analogies for Blue Bird (BLBD):

• The John Deere of school buses
• The Tesla of school buses (referring to their leadership in electric school bus technology)

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• School Buses: Blue Bird manufactures a comprehensive line of school buses designed for safe and reliable student transportation.
• Electric School Buses: They produce zero-emission electric school buses, providing environmentally friendly transportation solutions.
• Alternative Fuel School Buses: Blue Bird offers school buses powered by various alternative fuels, including propane, gasoline, and compressed natural gas (CNG).

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• Large National Fleet Operators: These companies contract with school districts to provide student transportation services and are significant purchasers of buses directly or through dealers. Key players in this sector that are potential major customers for Blue Bird include:
  • First Student (a subsidiary of FirstGroup PLC - LSE: FGP)
  • National Express (parent company of Durham School Services, Stock Transportation, and Illinois Central School Bus - LSE: NEX)
  • Transdev (a privately held global public transport company)
  • Student Transportation of America (STA) (privately held since being acquired by EQT)
• Public and Private School Districts: These are the ultimate end-users of the buses, operating their own fleets or contracting with the fleet operators mentioned above. While often purchasing through a dealer network, school districts are direct end-users and major buyers. As governmental or non-profit entities, they do not have stock symbols.
• Authorized Dealers: Blue Bird sells a significant portion of its buses through a network of independent authorized dealers in North America. These dealerships act as direct customers of Blue Bird, purchasing buses from the manufacturer to then sell to the end-user customers (school districts and fleet operators).

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• Cummins Inc. (CMI)
• Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN)
• Microvast Holdings, Inc. (MVST)
• Ford Motor Company (F)

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John Wyskiel, President & Chief Executive Officer

John Wyskiel was appointed President & Chief Executive Officer of Blue Bird in February 2025. He brings over 35 years of experience in manufacturing leadership, operational excellence, and global sales and supply chain management within the automotive and manufacturing industries. Mr. Wyskiel previously served as general manager of Blue Bird Coach in Canada from 2002 to 2004. He rejoined Blue Bird after a 20-year career at Magna International, where he most recently held the position of President of Magna Seating, overseeing a $6 billion business with 33,000 employees across more than 60 manufacturing facilities in 15 countries. His extensive background also includes various senior roles at automotive suppliers such as Dana Corporation and Borg Warner.

Razvan Radulescu, Chief Financial Officer

Razvan Radulescu serves as the Chief Financial Officer for Blue Bird. He has over 20 years of financial and operating experience, primarily with Daimler Trucks, where he held various roles of increasing responsibility in Finance and Procurement. His prior positions include General Manager of Procurement for Daimler Trucks North America, CFO of the Global Powertrain Daimler Truck Business Unit in Stuttgart, Germany, from 2017 to 2020, and Controller for Freightliner Trucks within Daimler Trucks North America from 2013 to 2017.

Ted Scartz, Senior VP & General Counsel

Ted Scartz is the Senior Vice President and General Counsel at Blue Bird.

Jolene O'Brien Paver, Senior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer

Jolene O'Brien Paver holds the title of Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer.

Jeff Sanfrey, Chief Operating Officer

Jeff Sanfrey is the Chief Operating Officer of Blue Bird.

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The key risks to Blue Bird (BLBD) business operations are primarily centered around its reliance on government incentives, vulnerabilities within its supply chain, and the intensifying competitive landscape.

1. Dependency on Government Incentives and Regulatory Changes: Blue Bird's strategic focus on electric and alternative-powered school buses makes it significantly susceptible to changes in governmental policies, grants, and subsidies, such as the EPA's Clean School Bus Program. Policy shifts, like halted EPA funds or increased tariffs, can directly impact customer purchasing decisions, leading to potential decreases in demand for these vehicles and affecting the company's financial projections and operating results. Economic and regulatory changes, including evolving environmental requirements and changes in government funding for school districts, pose ongoing threats to the company's operations.
2. Supply Chain Disruptions and Rising Costs: Blue Bird faces ongoing challenges from supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures on material costs, including steel, aluminum, and lithium. The company's reliance on single-source suppliers for certain components further exacerbates these vulnerabilities, potentially leading to increased manufacturing inefficiencies, higher operational costs, and an inability to meet production targets. Labor costs have also put pressure on the company's cost structure.
3. Intensified Competition: The school bus manufacturing industry is highly competitive, with established players like Thomas Built Bus (Daimler Trucks North America) and IC Bus (International Motors, LLC) having access to substantial technical, financial, and marketing resources. As the market for electric school buses (ESBs) grows, Blue Bird faces the threat of increased competition from both traditional manufacturers and new entrants specializing in electric vehicles. If competitors introduce more advanced or cost-effective electric bus models, Blue Bird could experience erosion of its market share and pricing pressure.

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School Buses (U.S. Market)

• The United States school bus market was valued at approximately USD 7.9 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 14.6 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.9% from 2025 to 2032.
• Another estimate indicates the U.S. school bus market size at USD 7.5 billion in 2023, expected to reach USD 14.8 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of approximately 11.8%.
• A different report states the U.S. school bus market size at USD 4.32 billion in 2023, projected to reach USD 6.57 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.28%.
• Yet another source values the U.S. school bus market at USD 5.83 billion in 2025, with a projected growth to USD 8.26 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 7.22%.

Electric School Buses

• U.S. Market: The market for electric school buses in the U.S. is experiencing significant growth. In 2024, electric school buses represented an estimated 7.5% of all new school bus sales. The battery-electric and hybrid variants segment of the U.S. school bus market is expanding at a 39.46% CAGR through 2030. As of June 2025, 1,551 school districts or private operators in 49 states had committed to procuring 13,874 electric school buses.
• Global Market: The global electric school bus market size was valued at USD 35.5 billion in 2024. This market is estimated to reach USD 335.3 billion by 2033, exhibiting a significant CAGR of 28.33% during 2025-2033. Another projection indicates the global electric school bus market was valued at USD 22.92 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 73.88 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 13.83%.

Alternative Fuel School Buses (Propane and CNG - U.S. Market)

• Alternative fuel school buses, specifically those using propane and compressed natural gas (CNG), are a component of the internal combustion engine (ICE) segment of the U.S. school bus market. In 2024, internal combustion engine models, which include alternative fuels, retained an 89.02% share of the U.S. school bus market. In 2022, there were over 20,240 propane autogas school buses on the road nationwide.

Commercial Buses derived from School Bus Chassis

• A specific addressable market size for commercial buses derived from school bus chassis could not be identified.

Aftermarket Parts and Services

• A specific addressable market size for aftermarket parts and services for school buses could not be identified. However, the U.S. School Bus Market generally includes the aftermarket for parts and maintenance as a key segment.

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Blue Bird (NASDAQ: BLBD) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:

1. Strong Demand and Pricing Actions: The company has consistently reported robust market demand for its school buses, which, coupled with strategic pricing actions, has contributed to significant revenue increases. Blue Bird's fiscal 2024 saw a 19% increase in sales revenue, partly due to a 13.6% increase in average sales price per unit. Management continues to align pricing with market economics and volatility. Analysts expect revenue to grow by 8.4% over the next 12 months.
2. Accelerated Growth in Electric and Alternative Fuel Buses: Blue Bird is a recognized leader in low- and zero-emission school buses, including electric, propane, and natural gas vehicles. The company is a significant beneficiary of federal and state subsidies for school bus electrification, such as the EPA's Clean School Bus Program. Blue Bird is forecasting to grow EV unit sales to 900 buses in fiscal 2025, a 28% increase from the previous year, with a long-term outlook to reach 4,000 to 5,000 EV units as part of 11,000 to 12,000 total units.
3. Expansion into New Markets and Product Diversification: Blue Bird is actively expanding its product portfolio beyond traditional school buses. The company announced an entry into the U.S. shuttle bus market in December 2024, which is expected to double its small bus capacity. Additionally, Blue Bird is developing a commercial chassis, which is entering its final testing phase and is slated for production in 2026, targeting it to be best-in-class.
4. Robust Backlog and Operational Efficiencies: The company has maintained a strong backlog of orders, which stood at over 4,800 units, including over 600 EVs, at the end of Q4 fiscal 2024. Easing supply chain constraints and improved operational performance are expected to help convert this backlog into sales, supported by higher average selling prices. Blue Bird is also focused on reducing structural costs through Lean Transformation initiatives, which, along with pricing and improved operational efficiency, are expected to fuel margins.

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Share Repurchases

• On August 5, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation's Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program for up to $100 million of its common stock, effective until January 1, 2028.
• In the first half of fiscal year 2025, Blue Bird repurchased $30.1 million in shares.
• On February 1, 2024, a stock repurchase program was authorized for up to $60 million in outstanding common stock over the subsequent 24 months.

Share Issuance

• The number of outstanding shares increased significantly by 13.9% in fiscal year 2022, reaching 32.02 million shares from 28.11 million in fiscal year 2021.
• From fiscal year 2020 to 2021, outstanding shares increased by 3.91%, from 27.06 million to 28.11 million.
• As of November 2025, the company had 31,556,312 shares outstanding, reflecting a 2.08% decrease from 2024.

Capital Expenditures

• Blue Bird's capital expenditures were $15 million in fiscal year 2024, $9 million in fiscal year 2023, and $6 million in fiscal year 2022.
• The company projects capital expenditures of $19 million for fiscal year 2025 and $22 million for fiscal year 2026.
• Capital expenditures are focused on general corporate purposes, working capital requirements, and funding innovation, particularly in electric vehicle (EV) production.