Tearsheet

Arlo Technologies (ARLO)


Market Price (2/21/2026): $11.43 | Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment

Arlo Technologies (ARLO)


Market Price (2/21/2026): $11.43
Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.54, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 284x
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.0%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Edge AI, Show more.
  Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9%
5   Key risks
ARLO key risks include [1] intense competition from significantly larger, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Edge AI, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.54, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 284x
8 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.0%
9 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
10 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9%
11 Key risks
ARLO key risks include [1] intense competition from significantly larger, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Arlo Technologies (ARLO) stock has lost about 40% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

**1. <b>Deterioration in Gross Margin and Operational Efficiency Concerns.</b><br><br>Arlo Technologies Inc. reportedly experienced a decline in its gross margin to 41.4%, marking the lowest level recorded in 2025. This indicated potential challenges in the company's operational efficiency and cost management.

**2. <b>Inventory Management Issues and Slow Customer Conversion.</b><br><br>The company faced struggles with inventory management, which led to a delay in converting customers to paid accounts. This resulted in a slower growth of service revenue relative to its annualized recurring revenue (ARR).

**3. <b>Persistent Operating Losses and Doubts about Business Model Sustainability.</b><br><br>Arlo Technologies' ongoing history of operating losses raised concerns among investors regarding the sustainability of its business model. This was further compounded by risks associated with changing customer demand and competitive pressures within the industry.

**4. <b>Analyst Downgrade.</b><br><br>On January 6, 2026, Zacks Research downgraded Arlo Technologies from a "Strong Buy" to a "Hold" rating, which likely contributed to a negative shift in investor sentiment and subsequently impacted the stock price.

Updated on 2/11/2026 Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -40.9% change in ARLO stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252212026Change
Stock Price ($)19.3411.43-40.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5085100.4%
P/S Multiple4.02.4-40.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)104105-1.2%
Cumulative Contribution-40.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARLO-40.0% 
Market (SPY)1.1%52.8%
Sector (XLK)-6.3%43.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The -29.4% change in ARLO stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120252212026Change
Stock Price ($)16.2011.43-29.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5065100.8%
P/S Multiple3.32.4-27.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)102105-2.8%
Cumulative Contribution-29.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARLO-28.3% 
Market (SPY)9.4%52.4%
Sector (XLK)7.4%45.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -2.4% change in ARLO stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.2% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)13120252212026Change
Stock Price ($)11.7111.43-2.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)524510-2.8%
P/S Multiple2.22.46.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)100105-5.2%
Cumulative Contribution-2.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARLO-0.9% 
Market (SPY)15.6%51.2%
Sector (XLK)22.6%49.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 204.8% change in ARLO stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 267.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120232212026Change
Stock Price ($)3.7511.43204.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)515510-1.0%
P/S Multiple0.62.4267.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)88105-16.2%
Cumulative Contribution204.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARLO209.6% 
Market (SPY)75.9%38.0%
Sector (XLK)111.5%35.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ARLO Return35%-67%171%18%25%-17%49%
Peers Return2%-31%36%14%13%-2%20%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%0%83%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARLO Win Rate67%25%83%50%50%0% 
Peers Win Rate48%38%60%47%47%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARLO Max Drawdown-29%-70%0%-11%-25%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-12%-42%-13%-11%-21%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, ADT, ALRM, VNT, REZI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/20/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARLOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-72.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven259.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven210 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-69.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven231.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven141 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-88.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven761.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to AMZN, ADT, ALRM, VNT, REZI

In The Past

Arlo Technologies's stock fell -72.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/3/2022. A -72.2% loss requires a 259.4% gain to breakeven.

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About Arlo Technologies (ARLO)

Arlo Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a cloud-based platform in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions. It combines an intelligent cloud infrastructure and mobile app with various smart connected devices. The company offers Arlo essential indoor camera; Arlo Go 2 LTE/Wi-Fi security camera; Arlo Q and Arlo Q Plus, an indoor wired solution that allows users to monitor their surroundings; and Arlo Go, an LTE-enabled wire-free camera that provides untethered mobile security. It also provides Arlo Baby, a baby monitor with air quality and temperature sensors, motion and audio detection, and advanced night vision; Arlo Chime that pairs with the Arlo Video Doorbell to play a variety of ringtones or act as a siren; Arlo Ultra, an integrated spotlight and crystal-clear two-way audio with advanced noise cancellations camera; Arlo Pro 3, an integrated spotlight with color night vision camera; Arlo Video Doorbell delivers direct-to-mobile video calls and personalized alerts; Arlo Floodlight Camera, a wire-free variant LED camera, as well as Arlo Essential Spotlight; Arlo Ultra 2; Arlo Essential XL Spotlight; Arlo Essential Wire-Free Video Doorbell; and Arlo Pro 4 Wire-Free Spotlight. In addition, it provides Arlo accessories, such as charging accessories, device mounts, and device skins. Further, it offers Arlo app for iOS and Android devices that allow users to connect various devices; and Arlo Secure, with coverage for unlimited cameras and an enhanced emergency response solutions. The company offers its products through retailers, wholesale distributors, broadcast channels, wireless carriers, and security solution providers, as well as through its website. Arlo Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Carlsbad, California.

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  • The independent Ring or Nest for smart home security cameras and video doorbells.

  • A pure-play alternative to Ring or Nest for wireless DIY home security.

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  • Smart Home Security Cameras: Wire-free and wired cameras offering high-definition video, motion detection, and two-way audio for indoor and outdoor surveillance.
  • Video Doorbells: Smart doorbells that provide real-time video, two-way talk, and visitor alerts directly to a user's smartphone.
  • Floodlight Cameras: Integrated security cameras with powerful LED floodlights, designed to illuminate and monitor large outdoor areas.
  • Arlo Secure (Subscription Service): A range of subscription plans offering cloud video recording, advanced object detection, emergency response, and interactive notifications for Arlo devices.

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Arlo Technologies (ARLO) - Major Customers

Arlo Technologies (ARLO) primarily sells its smart home security products, such as wireless cameras, video doorbells, and related accessories and services, directly to **individuals** rather than to other companies for resale or integration under a different brand. Their sales channels typically include direct-to-consumer via their website and through major retail partners (e.g., Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart), who then sell to end-user consumers. Based on this direct-to-consumer model, Arlo serves the following categories of individual customers:
  • Residential Consumers: This is Arlo's largest customer segment, encompassing homeowners and renters. These individuals purchase Arlo's security cameras, video doorbells, and subscription services to monitor and protect their private residences, enhance home security, and maintain surveillance of properties and loved ones.

  • Small Business Owners/Managers: While primarily consumer-focused, Arlo's user-friendly and scalable systems are also adopted by small businesses. These customers utilize Arlo products for basic surveillance of their offices, retail spaces, workshops, or other commercial properties, often prioritizing ease of installation and remote monitoring capabilities.

  • Smart Home Enthusiasts and Integrators: This category includes tech-savvy individuals who are building comprehensive smart home ecosystems. Arlo's devices are often integrated alongside other smart home products (e.g., smart lights, thermostats) to create a more interconnected and automated living environment, leveraging Arlo for its security and monitoring functionalities within that broader system.

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  • Wistron Corporation (TWSE: 3231)
  • Flex Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX)

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Matthew McRae Chief Executive Officer

Matthew McRae has served as Arlo's Chief Executive Officer since August 2018. He previously held the position of Senior Vice President of Strategy at NETGEAR starting in October 2017. Before his time at NETGEAR, Mr. McRae was the Chief Technology Officer of Vizio Inc. from March 2010 to October 2017, and prior to that, he served as its Vice President and General Manager, Advanced Products Group, from August 2008 to March 2010. He also held the role of Vice President of Marketing and Business Development at Fabrik (now part of HGST, Inc.) from July 2007 to August 2008. From 2001 to June 2007, Mr. McRae was the Senior Director, Worldwide Business Development at Cisco Systems Inc. He founded Blossom, a startup focused on smart water consumption devices, where he also served as Chairman of the Board. Additionally, he is a board member for Violux and a Venture Partner for Okapi Ventures. Mr. McRae has served on the board of Dedicated Hosting Services, Inc. (d/b/a Streaming Media Hosting), a private content delivery network company, since 2014, and on the board of the UC Irvine Institute for Innovation since June 2015.

Kurt Binder Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Kurt Binder has served as Arlo's Chief Financial Officer since September 2022 and as Chief Operating Officer since February 2024. Before joining Arlo, Mr. Binder was the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of CalAmp Corp., a provider of telematics devices and software services, from July 2017 to September 2022. He also spent more than seven years as the Chief Financial Officer at VIZIO, Inc., a U.S. television and consumer electronics company, where he was recognized as "CFO of the Year" by the Orange County Business Journal in 2015. Prior to Vizio, Mr. Binder was the Chief Accounting Officer for Applied Medical Resources, Inc. and an Assurance and Advisory Business Services Partner at Ernst & Young LLP from 1997 to 2009.

Samir Kapoor Chief Technology Officer

Samir Kapoor has served as Arlo's Chief Technology Officer since March 2024. Mr. Kapoor has held executive leadership roles at companies such as Life360, Fitbit, and Qualcomm, as well as several early-stage and growth startups. His background encompasses extensive technical, operational, and product development expertise across software, hardware, services, and data. He holds a Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

Michael A. Werdann Chief Revenue Officer

Michael A. Werdann has served as Arlo's Chief Revenue Officer since October 2024. Before joining Arlo, Mr. Werdann had a long tenure at NETGEAR from 1998 to 2024, where he held various positions including Chief Revenue Officer, Worldwide Senior Vice President of Sales for Consumer, Vice President of Americas Sales, United States Director of Sales, E-Commerce, and DMR. Prior to NETGEAR, he worked at Iomega Corporation, a computer hardware company, as a Sales Director.

Scott McManigal Senior Vice President of Design and Experience

Scott McManigal has served as Arlo's Senior Vice President of Design and Experience since March 2018, overseeing user experience design and research, industrial design, and mechanical engineering. Previously, Mr. McManigal was the Vice President of Design at VIZIO, where he was responsible for the creative vision and the design, definition, and execution of all products. Before joining VIZIO in 2009, he held leadership positions in design, product development, engineering, and creative roles at companies such as OpenPeak, Herbst Lazar Bell, BMW/Designworks, Mattel Toys, and Patton Design.

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The key risks to Arlo Technologies (ARLO) include:

  1. Intense Competition: Arlo operates in a highly competitive market, facing significant challenges from larger companies with greater resources, such as Amazon (with its Ring and Blink subsidiaries) and Google (with its Nest brand). This intense competition can lead to pricing pressure, increased sales and marketing expenses, reduced profit margins, and a potential loss of market share.
  2. Supply Chain Dependencies and Disruptions: Arlo relies on a limited number of third-party manufacturers and sole-source suppliers for critical components. This dependency exposes the company to risks such as supply disruptions, increased component costs, and potential quality control issues, which could negatively impact its ability to meet product demand, result in lost sales, and damage its brand reputation.
  3. Reliance on Third-Party Cloud Systems and Cybersecurity Risks: The company's operations are dependent on third-party cloud-based systems and information technology infrastructure. This reliance, coupled with the inherent risks of cybersecurity threats and the need to comply with evolving data privacy regulations across multiple jurisdictions, poses a significant threat. Non-compliance or successful cyberattacks could lead to operational disruptions, financial penalties, and damage to customer trust and brand reputation.

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The escalating market trend towards security camera systems that leverage on-device AI processing and local storage solutions (e.g., microSD cards, local home bases with hard drives) to offer advanced features, such as intelligent object detection and extended video history, without mandatory recurring cloud subscriptions. This trend is actively promoted by competitors like Eufy, Wyze, and Reolink, and directly challenges Arlo's core recurring revenue model, which significantly relies on Arlo Secure subscriptions for its premium features and cloud storage. As consumers exhibit increasing subscription fatigue, the growing appeal of 'no monthly fee' alternatives with increasingly comparable functionality poses a significant and emerging threat to Arlo's market share and profitability.

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Arlo Technologies (ARLO) operates within the smart home security market.

  • The addressable market for smart home security services in the U.S. is estimated to be $25 billion.
  • Globally, Arlo estimates its total market opportunity to be 2-3 times the U.S. market, suggesting a range of $50 billion to $75 billion.
  • The global smart home security market was valued at $32.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $62 billion by 2029.

Arlo's main products and services, including smart security devices (cameras, doorbells, floodlights, and home security systems) and subscription services (Arlo Secure, Arlo Total Security, Arlo Safe, and Arlo SmartCloud), fall within this smart home security market.

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Arlo Technologies (ARLO) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. Expansion of the Subscriptions and Services Business: Arlo's primary focus and a significant driver of revenue growth is its subscription-based services, such as Arlo Secure and Arlo Safe. The company has consistently reported strong growth in paid accounts and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). In Q3 2025, Arlo added 281,000 paid accounts, exceeding its target range, and grew its total paid accounts to 5.4 million, a 27% increase year-over-year. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $323 million, up 34% over the same period last year. This momentum is expected to continue, with management targeting 10 million paid accounts and $700 million in ARR as long-range objectives.
  2. Launch and Adoption of New AI-Driven Platforms and Refreshed Product Portfolio: The introduction of new AI platforms, such as Arlo Secure 6, is driving growth in the subscriptions business by offering enhanced features and guiding customers to higher-value AI-enhanced service levels. Arlo also executed its largest product launch in history, introducing over 100 new SKUs in 2025. This refreshed product portfolio, coupled with the AI-driven security platform, is expected to position the company well for continued service revenue growth.
  3. Growth in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU): Arlo is improving ARPU trends by guiding customers to its higher-value, AI-enhanced service levels. In Q1 2025, ARPU rose to a record $13.48, propelled by the success of Arlo Secure 5 and new service plans. This indicates a successful strategy in monetizing its existing and new subscriber base more effectively.
  4. Strategic Partnerships: Arlo is leveraging strategic partnerships, such as the one announced with ADT, to further differentiate itself in the smart security space and accelerate its ARR growth trajectory. These partnerships are crucial for driving household formation and expanding product and service offerings in competitive markets.
  5. Unit Growth in Hardware and Cost Optimization: While product revenue has seen some declines due to industry-wide average selling price (ASP) reductions and promotional activities, Arlo anticipates 20% to 30% unit growth year-over-year in Q4 2025. Management expects that refreshing the device portfolio in the second half of 2025 will reduce unit costs by up to 35%, which should ease margin pressure and make hardware sales a more effective lever for acquiring new users into the Arlo ecosystem, thereby fueling subscription growth.

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Here is a summary of Arlo Technologies' capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years:

Share Repurchases

  • Arlo Technologies' Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of up to $50 million through December 31, 2026.
  • In the first quarter of 2025, Arlo purchased $15.2 million of its common stock under this program.
  • Net cash used in financing activities for the repurchase of common stock was $16.1 million in the second quarter of 2025.

Inbound Investments

  • A strategic partnership with Verisure, established in 2020, included an aggregate product purchase commitment of $500.0 million over five years.
  • As of December 31, 2022, $336.7 million of this purchase commitment from Verisure had been fulfilled.
  • In December 2020, Verisure prepaid $40.0 million for product purchases in fiscal years 2021 and 2022.

Outbound Investments

  • Arlo made a strategic investment of $12.5 million in Origin Wireless in the first quarter of 2025.
  • Arlo announced a strategic partnership with ADT, which is expected to materially increase subscriptions and services revenue starting in 2026.

Capital Expenditures

  • In the second quarter of 2025, Arlo capitalized $2.0 million of software development costs related to the launch of new products and advancements for the Arlo Secure 6 platform.

Better Bets vs. Arlo Technologies (ARLO)

Trade Ideas

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Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ROP_1302026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01302026ROPRoper TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-13.4%-13.4%-13.8%
TDC_1302026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01302026TDCTeradataDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.7%17.7%-8.7%
CVLT_1302026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE01302026CVLTCommVault SystemsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-5.1%
NTNX_1302026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE01302026NTNXNutanixDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
6.2%6.2%-6.3%
FICO_1302026_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper01302026FICOFair IsaacMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.1%-8.1%-9.2%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARLOAMZNADTALRMVNTREZIMedian
NameArlo Tec.Amazon.c.ADT Alarm.comVontier Resideo . 
Mkt Price11.43210.017.9145.6040.9636.7338.84
Mkt Cap1.22,249.26.52.35.95.55.7
Rev LTM510716,9245,1139923,0767,4354,094
Op Inc LTM-579,9751,306130562625593
FCF LTM557,6951,387153441-1,334297
FCF 3Y Avg4024,2631,163150394-243272
CFO LTM66139,5141,970174511-1,233342
CFO 3Y Avg46113,4461,873165464-138315

Growth & Margins

ARLOAMZNADTALRMVNTREZIMedian
NameArlo Tec.Amazon.c.ADT Alarm.comVontier Resideo . 
Rev Chg LTM-2.8%12.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%15.5%6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.0%11.7%3.4%6.1%-1.1%6.1%4.7%
Rev Chg Q1.4%13.6%4.4%6.6%4.1%2.0%4.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.4%3.7%1.1%1.6%1.0%0.5%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM-0.9%11.2%25.5%13.1%18.3%8.4%12.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-5.5%9.4%26.1%10.2%17.9%8.8%9.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.2%0.1%-0.5%0.2%-0.1%-0.0%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM12.9%19.5%38.5%17.5%16.6%-16.6%17.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.0%17.5%40.1%17.7%15.2%-1.2%16.3%
FCF/Rev LTM10.7%1.1%27.1%15.4%14.3%-17.9%12.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.9%3.9%24.7%16.2%12.9%-2.8%10.4%

Valuation

ARLOAMZNADTALRMVNTREZIMedian
NameArlo Tec.Amazon.c.ADT Alarm.comVontier Resideo . 
Mkt Cap1.22,249.26.52.35.95.55.7
P/S2.43.11.32.31.90.72.1
P/EBIT-257.322.65.112.810.4-12.07.7
P/E279.629.010.117.814.5-8.616.1
P/CFO18.316.13.313.111.5-4.412.3
Total Yield0.4%3.5%12.8%5.6%7.1%-11.7%4.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%3.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.3%1.3%18.2%5.2%7.3%-2.1%4.3%
D/E0.00.11.20.50.40.60.4
Net D/E-0.10.01.20.00.30.50.1

Returns

ARLOAMZNADTALRMVNTREZIMedian
NameArlo Tec.Amazon.c.ADT Alarm.comVontier Resideo . 
1M Rtn-17.9%-10.4%-3.8%-9.7%9.1%-0.8%-6.7%
3M Rtn-14.2%-4.8%0.8%-8.7%17.4%23.1%-2.0%
6M Rtn-34.8%-8.2%-9.0%-22.9%-6.2%8.0%-8.6%
12M Rtn-0.3%-3.0%10.6%-23.4%8.9%88.8%4.3%
3Y Rtn185.8%119.2%7.2%-12.2%60.9%100.4%80.6%
1M Excs Rtn-16.7%-9.7%-2.6%-7.9%9.7%0.1%-5.3%
3M Excs Rtn-19.1%-10.0%-4.5%-11.1%13.7%20.0%-7.3%
6M Excs Rtn-39.3%-14.2%-16.1%-28.0%-10.6%6.6%-15.2%
12M Excs Rtn-12.3%-19.8%-3.2%-37.4%-10.6%55.6%-11.4%
3Y Excs Rtn100.4%43.6%-63.8%-82.0%8.9%24.9%16.9%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Products290354332285323
Subscriptions and services2011361047247
Total491490435357370


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$11.61 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.2 
First Trading Date08/03/2018 
Distance from 52W High-40.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$13.24$15.47
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA-12.3%-25.0%
 3M1YR
Volatility39.8%54.7%
Downside Capture236.02127.15
Upside Capture97.84109.29
Correlation (SPY)52.3%51.0%
ARLO Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.711.692.302.051.431.55
Up Beta6.524.825.374.091.651.42
Down Beta2.361.872.062.171.521.54
Up Capture-107%19%12%78%114%701%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days10222966127383
Down Capture107%164%248%171%110%109%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days10193259122363

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ARLO
ARLO3.0%54.6%0.25-
Sector ETF (XLK)17.0%27.5%0.5549.2%
Equity (SPY)13.5%19.4%0.5350.9%
Gold (GLD)74.5%25.6%2.151.1%
Commodities (DBC)7.2%16.9%0.2519.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.1%16.7%0.2427.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-29.7%44.9%-0.6527.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ARLO
ARLO8.4%61.5%0.37-
Sector ETF (XLK)16.1%24.8%0.5942.6%
Equity (SPY)13.4%17.0%0.6244.2%
Gold (GLD)22.6%17.1%1.087.0%
Commodities (DBC)10.9%19.0%0.469.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%18.8%0.1732.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.4%57.1%0.3520.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ARLO
ARLO-6.1%73.7%0.22-
Sector ETF (XLK)23.3%24.2%0.8837.3%
Equity (SPY)16.1%17.9%0.7739.0%
Gold (GLD)14.8%15.6%0.797.3%
Commodities (DBC)8.6%17.6%0.4012.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.0%20.7%0.3031.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.0%66.7%1.0715.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 11520264.9%
Average Daily Volume1.1 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity105.2 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares11.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-12.5%-11.0%-15.3%
8/7/20251.7%1.0%10.1%
5/8/202516.8%29.6%63.0%
2/27/202520.6%-0.6%-13.9%
11/7/2024-2.0%-6.2%8.1%
8/8/2024-15.6%-10.0%-18.5%
5/9/2024-17.9%-11.7%-5.4%
2/29/202413.6%6.1%20.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131015
# Negative9127
Median Positive12.6%14.9%9.9%
Median Negative-12.5%-8.1%-15.3%
Max Positive50.1%53.2%76.2%
Max Negative-29.9%-18.9%-27.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202311/09/202310-Q
06/30/202308/10/202310-Q
03/31/202305/11/202310-Q
12/31/202203/07/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/10/202210-Q
03/31/202205/11/202210-Q
12/31/202103/02/202210-K

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell1201202514.28257,2423,672,87613,443,871Form
2Busse, BrianGENERAL COUNSELDirectSell1114202514.37149,5212,149,1407,472,136Form
3McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell1105202517.8618,645333,08931,479,939Form
4Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell1016202517.8251,668920,5277,411,771Form
5McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell1002202516.9995,4301,621,56629,695,416Form