Aris Mining (ARIS)
Market Price (3/6/2026): $19.61 | Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Aris Mining (ARIS)
Market Price (3/6/2026): $19.61Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 79x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% | Key risksARIS key risks include [1] operational and project execution challenges, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Supply, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction, and Resource Efficiency Solutions. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Supply, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction, and Resource Efficiency Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 79x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
| Key risksARIS key risks include [1] operational and project execution challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Gold Price Volatility and Sharp Correction in Early 2026. Gold prices experienced significant volatility since November 2025, reaching an all-time high above $5,600 per ounce in January 2026, but then undergoing a sharp correction by shedding nearly $1,200 per ounce in just two days. This substantial and rapid decline in the underlying commodity price would likely exert downward pressure on gold mining stocks like Aris Mining, even as the price generally trended higher over the broader period.
2. Increase in All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC). Aris Mining reported an increase in its All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) per ounce. In the third quarter of 2025, consolidated AISC rose 6.6% year-over-year to approximately $1,641 per ounce, with Segovia Operations' AISC specifically increasing to $1,641 per ounce from $1,540 in the prior year quarter, primarily due to higher sustaining capital expenditures. Rising costs can compress profit margins and negatively impact investor sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.2% change in ARIS stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.69 | 19.61 | -17.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 770 | 770 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.4% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 96.0 | 79.4 | -17.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 199 | 199 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARIS | -17.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.3% | 64.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 13.7% | 84.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.2% change in ARIS stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -90.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.27 | 19.61 | -19.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 647 | 770 | 19.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.8% | 6.4% | 712.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 858.7 | 79.4 | -90.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 180 | 199 | -9.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARIS | -19.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.9% | 33.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 10.7% | 36.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.6% change in ARIS stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -53.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.94 | 19.61 | -36.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 485 | 770 | 59.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.8 | 5.1 | -53.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 170 | 199 | -14.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -36.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARIS | -36.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.7% | 44.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 16.2% | 46.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.4% change in ARIS stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 913.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.04 | 19.61 | 50.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 390 | 770 | 97.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.6% | 6.4% | 913.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 535.4 | 79.4 | -85.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 101 | 199 | -49.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARIS | 50.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.3% | 37.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 31.1% | 40.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARIS Return | -9% | 14% | -39% | 193% | 1% | -11% | 64% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -10% | 28% | 32% | 8% | 10% | 136% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 0% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARIS Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 50% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 35% | 55% | 60% | 55% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARIS Max Drawdown | -27% | -14% | -52% | -6% | -17% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -33% | -13% | -5% | -21% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WTTR, ECL, XYL, PNR, ITT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARIS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 236.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 563 days | 464 days |
Compare to WTTR, ECL, XYL, PNR, ITT
In The Past
Aris Mining's stock fell -70.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/2/2022. A -70.3% loss requires a 236.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Aris Mining (ARIS)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Aris Mining:
- A developing Barrick Gold, focused on gold production in Colombia.
- Like a smaller Newmont, primarily extracting gold from its operations in Colombia.
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- Gold: A precious metal extracted from its mining operations, primarily sold for use in jewelry, investment, and industrial applications.
- Silver: A precious metal often produced as a significant by-product from its gold mining activities, used in industrial applications, jewelry, and investment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aris Mining (symbol: ARIS) is a gold mining company. As a producer of a commodity like gold, it primarily sells its product to other businesses rather than directly to individual consumers.
The major customers for a gold mining company typically fall into the following categories:
- Metal Refiners: These companies purchase doré bars (partially refined gold-silver alloy) from mines and refine them into pure gold bullion (e.g., 99.99% pure gold bars meeting LBMA standards). Examples include Valcambi, PAMP, Heraeus, Rand Refinery, and many others globally.
- Bullion Banks/Financial Institutions: Major banks with dedicated precious metals trading desks often purchase gold directly from producers. They act as intermediaries, facilitate hedging for producers, and distribute gold to other market participants (e.g., central banks, investment funds, jewelry manufacturers). Examples include JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, UBS, and others.
- Specialized Metal Traders: Large commodity trading houses may also purchase gold directly from mines for further distribution or to fulfill various market demands.
Due to the nature of commodity sales and contractual agreements, Aris Mining does not publicly disclose the names of its specific major customers. However, its sales would be primarily to entities within the categories listed above. These are typically private entities or large financial institutions, many of which are public but act as intermediaries rather than end-users in the traditional sense for the gold itself.
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Neil Woodyer, Chair and Chief Executive Officer
Neil Woodyer is a founder and the current Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Aris Mining, a role he assumed in January 2026. He was also a founder and CEO of both Leagold Mining Corporation and Endeavour Mining. In 1988, Mr. Woodyer founded Endeavour Financial, a merchant banking and advisory business focused on mining. In 2009, he transitioned Endeavour Financial into Endeavour Mining, leading its growth through acquisitions and new mine builds to become a significant gold producer in West Africa. He founded Leagold Mining in 2016, which developed gold mines in Mexico and Brazil, and subsequently merged Leagold Mining with Equinox Gold Corp. in 2020. Following this, he led Aris Gold Corp. to its merger with GCM Mining Corp. to form Aris Mining Corporation in 2022. Aris Mining is backed by strategic investor Frank Giustra, and Mubadala Investment Co. is also an investor.
Cameron Paterson, CFO
Cameron Paterson joined Aris Mining as Chief Financial Officer in July 2025. He brings extensive financial leadership experience within the mining sector. Previously, he worked at Pan American Silver, where he joined in 2014 and held executive roles including Vice President, Financial Reporting, and since 2022, Senior Vice President, Finance and Information Technology. Prior to that, Mr. Paterson was Vice President of Finance at a junior mining company in Vancouver and began his career at Deloitte. He is a Chartered Professional Accountant and holds a degree in Economics from the University of Victoria and a Diploma in Accounting from the Sauder School of Business.
Doug Bowlby, President
Doug Bowlby was promoted to President of Aris Mining in January 2026. He has significant experience in implementing corporate growth strategies, including corporate acquisitions and successful mine construction, along with a wide range of corporate finance initiatives. Mr. Bowlby was one of the founding executives of Aris Gold in 2021, Leagold Mining in 2016 (which was acquired by Equinox Gold), and Endeavour Mining in 2009. Before these roles, he served as Managing Director, Research and Analysis at Endeavour Financial. Mr. Bowlby is a Chartered Financial Analyst.
Cornelius (Corné) Lourens, Senior Vice President, Projects
Cornelius (Corné) Lourens serves as the Senior Vice President, Projects for Aris Mining. He is a metallurgist with over 30 years of experience in mining production, consulting, and managing operations across South Africa, West Africa, North America, and South America. Before joining Aris Mining, Mr. Lourens was the SVP Technical Services with Equinox Gold and previously the SVP Operations of the Brazil mines for both Equinox Gold and Leagold Mining. He also served as the general manager for several mines at Endeavour Mining during its expansion phase.
Dustin VanDoorselaere, Senior Vice President, Operations
Dustin VanDoorselaere holds the position of Senior Vice President, Operations at Aris Mining. In this role, he directly leads the company's operational responsibilities.
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The key risks to Aris Mining's business include:
- Commodity Price Volatility: Aris Mining's revenue is highly sensitive to fluctuations in gold prices, which is identified as a primary risk common to the gold mining sector.
- Operational and Project Execution Risks: The company faces challenges related to securing regulatory permits, maintaining strong community relations for its expansion projects (particularly Segovia and Marmato), and potential delays in reaching new production capacity. Additionally, rising operating costs, influenced by inflation in Colombia and higher volumes of purchased mill feed, pose a risk to the company's profitability.
- Geopolitical and Jurisdictional Risks: Operating primarily in Colombia exposes Aris Mining to potential risks stemming from changes in national and local government legislation, taxation, controls, regulations, and broader political or economic developments within the country.
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Aris Mining's primary products are gold, silver, and copper, with minor production of zinc and lead concentrates.
The addressable market sizes for their main products are as follows:
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Gold: The global gold market size was valued at approximately USD 291.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 400 billion by the end of 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.51% from 2025 to 2030. In terms of volume, the global gold market stood at 4,890.0 tons in 2025 and is expected to grow from 5,118.1 tons in 2026 to 7,424.4 tons by 2034, with a CAGR of 4.70% during that period.
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Copper: The global copper market was valued at approximately USD 291.12 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 304.95 billion in 2026, with a projected growth to USD 442.04 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 4.75%. Another estimate places the global copper market size at USD 349.14 billion in 2025, forecasted to reach around USD 548.2 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 5.11%.
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Silver: null
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Zinc: null
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Lead: null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aris Mining (symbol: ARIS) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives focused on increasing production and leveraging its project pipeline.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Increased Gold Production from Segovia Operations: Aris Mining is significantly expanding the processing facility at its Segovia Operations, with capacity increasing by 50% to 3,000 tonnes per day (tpd). This expansion was scheduled for completion in Q1 2025, with commissioning in Q2 2025 and a gradual ramp-up to full capacity by year-end 2025. This is projected to boost Segovia's gold production to approximately 300,000 ounces per year from 2026 onwards.
- Ramp-up of Marmato Lower Mine and New CIP Plant: Construction of the Marmato Lower Mine is progressing, with combined production from the Upper and Lower Mines expected to ramp up in 2026. A new Carbon in Pulp (CIP) plant at Marmato is anticipated to be commissioned in Q4 2026, and production is expected to increase through 2027, targeting approximately 200,000 ounces of annual production by the end of 2027.
- Advancement of Soto Norte Gold-Copper Project: Aris Mining completed the acquisition of the remaining 49% interest in its Soto Norte gold-copper project in Q4 2025. Environmental and technical studies for this top-tier project were expected in mid-2025, and its progression positions the company for enhanced production capacity and long-term growth, potentially contributing to a target of one million ounces of annual production including Toroparu and Soto Norte.
- Favorable Gold Price Environment: The company has noted the benefit of a "favorable gold price environment" in its financial results, which has contributed to strong revenue growth. Continued strong gold prices would directly enhance revenue generated from its increasing gold production.
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Share Issuance
- In 2025, Aris Mining received over $19.4 million in proceeds from warrant exercises by Q1 2025, with an additional $60.5 million received after June 30, 2025, from warrant exercises, totaling $114.8 million from warrant exercises.
- The full exercise of the remaining 48.0 million ARIS.WT.A warrants, which expired on July 29, 2025, was expected to result in the issuance of 24.0 million new Aris Mining shares and generate C$132 million (approximately $96 million) in additional proceeds.
- In December 2020, Aris Gold (now Aris Holdings) completed a C$85 million private placement of subscription receipts, which converted into common shares and warrants on February 4, 2021.
Outbound Investments
- During the fourth quarter of 2025, Aris Mining acquired the remaining 49% interest in its Soto Norte project for $60 million, making it the sole owner of the project.
Capital Expenditures
- In Q1 2025, Aris Mining invested $43.0 million in growth and expansion initiatives, including $29.7 million for the Marmato Lower Mine development and $6.4 million for Segovia plant expansion, underground development, and exploration.
- Growth capital investment in Q2 2025 totaled $36.7 million, primarily supporting long-term expansion at the Marmato Bulk Mining Zone ($23.6 million) and Segovia ($6.9 million).
- The Soto Norte project, which completed a Prefeasibility Study in September 2025, is estimated to require an initial capital expenditure of $625 million for a 3,500-tonne-per-day design. Environmental studies for the project are on schedule for submission in Q2 2026 to initiate the licensing process.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 111.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.4 |
| Rev LTM | 4,057 |
| Op Inc LTM | 779 |
| FCF LTM | 646 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 566 |
| CFO LTM | 742 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 661 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.4 |
| P/S | 3.8 |
| P/EBIT | 23.5 |
| P/E | 35.6 |
| P/CFO | 20.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 80.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 9.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $19.61 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/22/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -40.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $23.44 | $24.87 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -16.3% | -21.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 72.6% | 66.3% |
| Downside Capture | 372.74 | 84.57 |
| Upside Capture | 399.03 | 17.54 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 18.9% | 41.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.76 | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.29 | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| Up Beta | 0.46 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.39 | 1.16 | 1.09 |
| Down Beta | -2.36 | -0.82 | -0.60 | 0.04 | 1.95 | 1.90 |
| Up Capture | 174% | 91% | 63% | 23% | 21% | 203% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 86 | 351 |
| Down Capture | 192% | 126% | 96% | 57% | 80% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 77 | 305 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARIS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIS | -17.3% | 63.2% | -0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 20.3% | 20.8% | 0.79 | 46.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.2% | 19.1% | 0.79 | 45.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.7% | 26.1% | 2.12 | 11.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.1% | 0.87 | 50.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 16.6% | 0.15 | 36.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 45.6% | -0.26 | 17.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARIS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIS | 12.8% | 61.1% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 8.7% | 18.9% | 0.35 | 36.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.0% | 0.65 | 34.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.7% | 17.2% | 1.12 | 10.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 19.0% | 0.50 | 34.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 18.8% | 0.19 | 28.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.5% | 56.9% | 0.38 | 16.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARIS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIS | 6.2% | 61.1% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 11.5% | 20.6% | 0.50 | 36.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 34.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.8% | 15.6% | 0.79 | 10.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 17.6% | 0.43 | 34.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 20.7% | 0.26 | 28.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.3% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 16.9% |
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Returns Analyses
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