American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
Market Price (10/8/2025): $15.5 | Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
Market Price (10/8/2025): $15.5
Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 5.7% | Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -15% | Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71% |
Valuation becoming less expensive P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48% | Meaningful short interest Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6% |
Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 5.7% |
Valuation becoming less expensive P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48% |
Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -15% |
Meaningful short interest Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71% |
Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
AEO Stock
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
AEO Return | 39% | 29% | -43% | 55% | -19% | -4% | 33% |
Peers Return | 4% | 17% | -11% | 67% | 25% | -35% | 48% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
AEO Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 25% | 67% | 33% | 44% | |
Peers Win Rate | 20% | 23% | 15% | 28% | 40% | 44% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
AEO Max Drawdown | -54% | -1% | -61% | -27% | -21% | -43% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -1% | -19% | -1% | -1% | -50% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: URBN, ANF, LB, BRIA, JEM. See AEO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/7/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | AEO | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -74.3% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 289.2% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -55.0% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 122.3% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -51.3% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 105.2% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 453 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -79.3% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 383.0% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 4530 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
American Eagle Outfitters's stock fell -74.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/23/2021. A -74.3% loss requires a 289.2% gain to breakeven.
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About American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer that provides clothing, accessories, and personal care products under the American Eagle and Aerie brands. The company provides jeans, and specialty apparel and accessories for women and men; and intimates, apparel, activewear, and swim collections, as well as personal care products for women. It also offers graphic tees and other clothing products under the Tailgate brand name; and menswear products under the Todd Snyder New York brand name. As of January 29, 2022, the company operated 880 American Eagle stores, 244 Aerie brand stand-alone stores, and five Todd Snyder stores in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Hong Kong. It also ships to 81 countries through its Websites; and offers its merchandise at 260 locations operated by licensees in 28 countries, as well as provides products through its Websites ae.com, aerie.com, and toddsnyder.com. American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past trade ideas related to AEO and Apparel Retail.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -9.0% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -0.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.8% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.6% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
03312025 | AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 52.0% | 39.0% | -18.9% |
03312020 | AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 76.0% | 272.2% | -15.3% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -9.0% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -0.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.8% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -0.6% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
03312025 | AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 52.0% | 39.0% | -18.9% |
03312020 | AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 76.0% | 272.2% | -15.3% |
See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for American Eagle Outfitters
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 34.95 |
Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
Rev LTM | 5,183 |
Op Inc LTM | 429 |
FCF LTM | 248 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 293 |
CFO LTM | 486 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 514 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 9.5% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
Rev Chg Q | 8.9% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
Op Mgn LTM | 12.1% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 6.8% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
P/S | 0.9 |
P/EBIT | 9.7 |
P/E | 13.3 |
P/CFO | 8.5 |
Total Yield | 12.1% |
Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
D/E | 0.3 |
Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -9.4% |
3M Rtn | -10.6% |
6M Rtn | 9.6% |
12M Rtn | -23.3% |
3Y Rtn | 140.3% |
1M Excs Rtn | -13.2% |
3M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
6M Excs Rtn | -32.9% |
12M Excs Rtn | -43.5% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 76.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
American Eagle | 3,362 | 3,263 | 3,556 | 2,734 | 3,480 |
Aerie | 1,670 | 1,507 | 1,376 | 990 | 801 |
Other | 489 | 469 | 82 | 35 | 28 |
Intersegment Elimination | -259 | -249 | -3 | ||
Total | 5,262 | 4,990 | 5,011 | 3,759 | 4,308 |
Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
American Eagle | 600 | 541 | 796 | 93 | 484 |
Aerie | 276 | 167 | 214 | 60 | 47 |
Intersegment Elimination | 0 | 0 | |||
Other | -36 | -57 | -16 | -425 | -298 |
Impairment, restructuring and other charges | -153 | -22 | -12 | ||
Unallocated corporate expenses | -464 | -383 | -391 | ||
Total | 223 | 247 | 591 | -271 | 233 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
9/3/2025 | 38.0% | 41.3% | 24.4% |
5/29/2025 | -2.0% | -9.3% | -14.0% |
3/12/2025 | -4.1% | 4.0% | -6.7% |
12/4/2024 | -14.3% | -14.1% | -16.2% |
8/29/2024 | -4.2% | -11.3% | 1.2% |
5/29/2024 | -7.6% | -9.8% | -17.0% |
3/7/2024 | -1.9% | -1.0% | 4.5% |
11/21/2023 | 1.0% | 14.9% | 26.3% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 11 | 10 | 11 |
# Negative | 14 | 15 | 14 |
Median Positive | 2.4% | 6.4% | 8.8% |
Median Negative | -4.2% | -9.3% | -14.4% |
Max Positive | 38.0% | 41.3% | 26.3% |
Max Negative | -14.3% | -21.8% | -20.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
7312025 | 9092025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
4302025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
1312025 | 3202025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
1312024 | 3152024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
10312023 | 11212023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
7312023 | 9062023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
4302023 | 5252023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
1312023 | 3132023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
10312022 | 11232022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
7312022 | 9072022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
4302022 | 5262022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
1312022 | 3142022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
10312021 | 11232021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Spiegel Noel Joseph | 9092025 | Sell | 18.12 | 40,000 | 724,856 | Form | ||
1 | PAGE JANICE E | 9092025 | Sell | 18.04 | 26,869 | 484,717 | 1,630,509 | Form | |
2 | MCMILLAN CARY D | 9092025 | Sell | 18.11 | 9,002 | 163,071 | Form | ||
3 | Foyle Jennifer M. | Global Brand President-aerie | 9092025 | Sell | 18.14 | 54,950 | 996,793 | 4,010,881 | Form |
4 | MCMILLAN CARY D | 1172025 | Sell | 16.02 | 2,999 | 48,044 | Form |
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