Tearsheet

Adtran (ADTN)


Market Price (2/21/2026): $10.06 | Market Cap: $802.8 Mil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment

Adtran (ADTN)


Market Price (2/21/2026): $10.06
Market Cap: $802.8 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Network Equipment, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6%
1   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%
2   Key risks
ADTN key risks include [1] significant financial distress, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Network Equipment, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6%
3 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%
4 Key risks
ADTN key risks include [1] significant financial distress, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Adtran (ADTN) stock has lost about 5% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Mixed Quarterly Financial Performance: Adtran experienced an initial stock decline following its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 4, 2025, where it missed EPS estimates despite revenue exceeding expectations and strong optical networking growth. This downward pressure was subsequently counteracted by the preliminary Q4 2025 results announced in January 2026, which indicated revenues exceeding guidance and non-GAAP earnings per share expected to surpass analyst consensus, signaling improved operational momentum.

2. Balancing Long-Term Growth Prospects with Current Profitability Challenges: The company is well-positioned to capitalize on significant industry tailwinds, including the ongoing expansion of 5G infrastructure, increasing demand for high-speed broadband, and a substantial European opportunity from replacing Huawei equipment, estimated at $800 million annually. However, Adtran has faced challenges with profitability, having been unprofitable with growing losses in prior periods, and investor sentiment remains sensitive to the company's progress toward achieving consistent profitability and improved margins.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -3.4% change in ADTN stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252202026Change
Stock Price ($)10.4210.07-3.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)9831,0355.3%
P/S Multiple0.80.8-8.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8080-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution-3.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADTN-3.4% 
Market (SPY)1.1%48.2%
Sector (XLK)-6.3%50.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 8.4% change in ADTN stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120252202026Change
Stock Price ($)9.2910.078.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)9441,0359.6%
P/S Multiple0.80.8-0.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8080-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution8.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADTN8.4% 
Market (SPY)9.4%46.6%
Sector (XLK)7.4%49.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -2.9% change in ADTN stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120252202026Change
Stock Price ($)10.3710.07-2.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)9051,03514.3%
P/S Multiple0.90.8-14.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7980-1.1%
Cumulative Contribution-2.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADTN-2.9% 
Market (SPY)15.6%54.9%
Sector (XLK)22.6%58.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -45.2% change in ADTN stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120232202026Change
Stock Price ($)18.3710.07-45.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8211,03526.0%
P/S Multiple1.60.8-52.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7380-8.5%
Cumulative Contribution-45.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADTN-45.2% 
Market (SPY)75.9%40.7%
Sector (XLK)111.5%38.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ADTN Return27%2%-60%13%4%14%-30%
Peers Return69%-27%-9%33%107%13%249%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%0%83%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADTN Win Rate42%17%25%42%67%100% 
Peers Win Rate57%42%53%58%58%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADTN Max Drawdown-0%-3%-73%-40%-14%-0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-12%-54%-30%-23%-33%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CIEN, CALX, EXTR, RBBN, LITE. See ADTN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/20/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADTNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-80.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven400.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven101.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-64.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven183.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven645 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-56.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven129.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven511 days1,480 days

Compare to CIEN, CALX, EXTR, RBBN, LITE

In The Past

Adtran's stock fell -80.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/19/2022. A -80.0% loss requires a 400.8% gain to breakeven.

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About Adtran (ADTN)

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions for communications service provider, enterprises, and government customers in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. The company offers fiber access and fiber to the node platforms; transceivers, cables, and other miscellaneous materials; passive optical network optical line terminals; fiber to the distribution point Gfast distribution point units; cabinet and outside plant enclosures and services; packet optical transports; fixed wireless access platforms; and network management and subscriber services, and control and orchestration software. It also provides broadband customer premises solutions, ethernet switches and routers, residential gateways, cloud-based software-as-a-service management platforms, virtual wireless local area networks, Internet of Things gateways, pre-sale and post-sale technical support, and multi-gigabit mesh Wi-Fi gateways. In addition, the company offers time division multiplexed and asynchronous transfer mode-based aggregation systems and customer devices; and high-bit-rate and asymmetric digital subscriber line, and other technologies. Further, it provides other access and aggregation, subscriber and experience, and traditional and other products, software, and services. Additionally, the company engages in the provision of planning, engineering, program management, maintenance, installation, and commissioning services to implement customer network solutions; and customer devices solutions into consumer, small business, and enterprise locations. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Adtran (ADTN):

  • The Cisco or Juniper Networks for internet service providers.
  • A fixed-line Nokia or Ericsson for broadband infrastructure.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Fiber Access Solutions: Hardware and software platforms that enable service providers to deliver high-speed broadband services over fiber optic networks to homes and businesses.
  • Subscriber Devices (CPE): Customer-premises equipment such as Wi-Fi gateways, optical network terminals (ONTs), and other residential and business broadband devices for end-users.
  • Optical Transport and FSP Solutions: Technologies for high-capacity data transmission over long-haul and metro fiber networks, including solutions for fiber sensing applications.
  • Network Management and Orchestration Software: Software suites designed to plan, deploy, manage, and automate network operations for service providers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Adtran (symbol: ADTN) primarily sells its products and services to **other companies (B2B)** rather than directly to individuals. As a global provider of networking and communications equipment, its customer base consists of various organizations that build, operate, and utilize telecommunications infrastructure.

Based on Adtran's public filings, including its recent 10-K reports, **no single customer is disclosed as accounting for 10% or more of Adtran's revenues** in recent fiscal years (e.g., 2023, 2022, 2021). Therefore, specific names of individual customer companies that are considered "major" under SEC disclosure requirements are not publicly available.

However, Adtran consistently identifies its major **categories of customers** as:

  • Service Providers: This is Adtran's largest customer segment and includes telecommunication companies (telcos), internet service providers (ISPs), cable multiple-system operators (MSOs), and utilities. These customers deploy Adtran's equipment to deliver broadband, fiber-to-the-home (FTTH), G.fast, DSL, optical networking, and enterprise connectivity services to their own end-users.
  • Enterprises: Businesses of various sizes that purchase Adtran's networking solutions for their internal infrastructure, data center connectivity, and secure access needs.
  • Governmental Entities and Military Organizations: Public sector clients that require secure and robust communication networks for their operations.

Adtran typically reaches these customers through a combination of its direct sales force and a global network of channel partners, including distributors, value-added resellers, and system integrators.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Broadcom (AVGO)
  • Marvell Technology (MRVL)
  • Texas Instruments (TXN)
  • Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (Foxconn) (2317.TW)
  • Sanmina (SANM)

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Thomas R. Stanton, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman

Thomas R. Stanton joined ADTRAN in 1995 as vice president of marketing for the Carrier Networks (CN) Division, and has held several senior management positions within the company, including senior vice president and general manager of the CN Division. He was named ADTRAN's chief executive officer in September 2005, and chairman of the board in 2007. Prior to joining ADTRAN, he served as vice president of marketing and engineering at Transcrypt International and held several senior management positions with E. F. Johnson Company. He also serves as Chief Executive Officer of Adtran Networks, SE.

Timothy Santo, Senior Vice President, Finance, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Principal Accounting Officer

Timothy Santo was appointed CFO of ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., effective March 10, 2025. He brings over 25 years of international experience in finance, accounting, and operational leadership across various industries. Before joining ADTRAN, he served as Executive VP and CFO at Conn's HomePlus, where he guided the financial strategy through a period of significant transformation, including a $1 billion acquisition and capital restructuring. He also previously served as Senior Vice President and Global Controller at PRA Group, Inc., overseeing international accounting, financial reporting, and compliance. Additionally, he held leadership roles at Grant Thornton and GE Capital.

Christoph Glingener, Chief Technology Officer

Christoph Glingener has served as the Chief Technology Officer of ADTRAN since 2023. Prior to this role, he was the Chief Technology Officer of ADVA.

James D. Wilson Jr., Chief Revenue Officer

James D. Wilson Jr., also known as Jay, joined ADTRAN in 1998. He has held several roles within the Carrier Networks Division, including vice president of product marketing, and is responsible for all carrier engineering, marketing, sales, and support functions. Before ADTRAN, he served in various management roles for Wyle Laboratories, focusing on sales, marketing, and engineering management for testing and engineering services to the telecommunications, aerospace/defense, and nuclear equipment qualification industries.

Ron Centis, Senior Vice President of Global Operations

Ron Centis joined ADTRAN in February 2019 and serves as the Senior Vice President of Global Operations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Adtran's business (NASDAQ: ADTN) are primarily centered around its financial health and operational execution, the cyclical nature of its primary market, and ongoing external pressures from supply chain and technological shifts.

  1. Financial Challenges and Internal Control Weaknesses: Adtran faces significant financial hurdles, evidenced by consistent losses and a concerning Altman Z-Score of 0.88, which suggests a potential risk of bankruptcy within two years. The company has undergone financial statement restatements due to inventory adjustments and has identified material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting. These issues impact investor confidence and the accuracy of its financial reporting. Adtran also has complex financial obligations related to its European operations, including payment obligations to minority shareholders and absorbing annual net losses from Adtran Networks.
  2. Reliance on Cyclical Telecom Investment and Intense Market Competition: Adtran's revenue is substantially reliant on the cyclical nature of telecom investment cycles. Any slowdown in capital expenditure by major telecom operators could directly impact the company's revenue. Furthermore, the company operates in a highly competitive landscape with major players like Cisco and Nokia, which puts continuous pressure on pricing and profit margins.
  3. Global Supply Chain Uncertainties and Rapid Technological Advancements: Adtran is exposed to ongoing global supply chain uncertainties, which pose a persistent threat and could lead to increased component costs, production delays, and an inability to meet customer demand. Additionally, the telecommunications market is characterized by rapid technological advancements, requiring Adtran to continuously innovate. A failure to adapt quickly to emerging standards or disruptive technologies could erode its market position and competitive edge.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Network Disaggregation and Open Access Initiatives

The telecommunications industry is increasingly moving towards disaggregating network hardware and software, promoting open interfaces, and fostering multi-vendor ecosystems. This trend, inspired by Open RAN in mobile networks, is extending to fixed broadband access, often referred to as Open Broadband.

Adtran traditionally provides integrated hardware and software solutions for broadband access (e.g., Optical Line Terminals - OLTs, Optical Network Terminals - ONTs). Network disaggregation threatens to commoditize the underlying hardware, shifting value and profit pools towards software-centric solutions and potentially enabling new, specialized vendors to enter the market with lower-cost hardware or innovative software. This could erode Adtran's margins and market share for its integrated offerings as service providers seek greater flexibility, reduced vendor lock-in, and lower total cost of ownership by sourcing components from different suppliers.

Evidence for this emerging threat includes:

  • Telecom Infra Project (TIP) Open Broadband: Significant industry-wide initiatives backed by major global operators (e.g., Vodafone, Telefonica, Deutsche Telekom) focusing on specifications and deployments for disaggregated OLTs and open passive optical network (PON) solutions.
  • Broadband Forum: Actively developing specifications for cloud-native broadband networks and disaggregated access architectures (e.g., Project Cassini), indicating a clear industry direction.
  • Operator Adoption and Trials: Numerous tier-1 service providers are openly exploring, trialing, and expressing a strategic intent to deploy disaggregated network elements to reduce vendor lock-in, lower operational costs, and increase innovation velocity.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The addressable markets for Adtran's main products and services are sizable across several key global segments:
  • Fiber Broadband/Fiber to the Home (FTTH): The global Fiber to the Home (FTTH) market is projected to expand from USD 27.58 billion in 2024 to USD 126.51 billion by 2034, demonstrating a robust Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.6% over the forecast period. Another report indicates the global fiber to the home market was valued at USD 62.64 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% during the forecast period. Additionally, the global fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) market is expected to reach approximately $55 billion by 2030.
  • Optical Transport Network (OTN): The global optical transport network (OTN) market was valued at USD 25.50 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 52.56 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 9.46% from 2025-2032. Another estimate valued the global optical transport network market at USD 20.6 billion in 2022, with a projection to reach USD 46.12 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 9.37%.
  • Enterprise Networking: The global enterprise networking market size was estimated at USD 215.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 298.30 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.4% from 2025 to 2030. Another report valued the global Enterprise Networking Market at USD 72.93 billion in 2024 and projects it to reach USD 427.2 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 24.73% during the forecast period.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Adtran (ADTN)

  • Expansion into Global Markets: Adtran anticipates further revenue growth from its expansion into global markets, particularly in the EMEA and APAC regions, which have demonstrated higher demand for its solutions. The company has seen significant growth in large service provider sales in both EMEA and APAC regions.
  • Introduction and Growth of Higher-Speed Access Technologies: The introduction and increased adoption of higher-speed access technologies, such as 50-gig PON, XGS-PON, and Wi-Fi 7 platforms, are expected to drive revenue. These technologies cater to the growing demand for faster broadband services and contribute to the growth of Access & Aggregation and Subscriber Solutions segments.
  • Customer Acquisition and Growth in Carrier Customer Base: Adtran has been actively growing its customer base, adding new carrier customers for optical networking solutions and its latest Wi-Fi platforms. This continued success in acquiring new customers is a key factor in expected sequential revenue growth.
  • Increased Fiber Access and Optical Transport Demand: The ongoing trend of increasing fiber access and optical transport, combined with a transition away from higher-risk vendors to providers like Adtran, serves as a durable secular catalyst for growth. This trend drives demand for Adtran's comprehensive portfolio in the fiber broadband market.
  • Recovery in Service Provider Spending: Following periods of cautious spending, a gradual recovery in service provider spending and a return to normalized spending patterns are expected over the coming quarters. This anticipated improvement in key end markets, coupled with encouraging booking trends, is projected to contribute to Adtran's continued revenue growth.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. did not repurchase any stock during 2023 and 2024.
  • There is no authorized stock repurchase plan for ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

Share Issuance

  • In September 2025, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. issued $201.25 million in aggregate principal amount of 3.75% convertible senior notes due 2030, an increase from the initially planned $150.0 million offering.
  • The offering included an option for initial purchasers to acquire up to an additional $26.25 million principal amount of notes.
  • The net proceeds from the convertible notes offering were primarily intended to fund approximately $15.3 million in capped call transactions to reduce potential dilution, and to repay approximately $152.8 million of outstanding borrowings.

Outbound Investments

  • In August 2021, ADTRAN acquired ADVA in a deal valued at EUR 789 million ($931.1 million).
  • The merger with ADVA was expected to increase ADTRAN's total addressable market to $14 billion and support communications service providers, enterprises, and government customers worldwide.

Capital Expenditures

  • In 2023, capital expenditures for property, plant, and equipment for the Adtran Networks SE subsidiary amounted to EUR 19.0 million, primarily reflecting investments in the expansion of its Meiningen production facility.
  • Capital expenditures for intangible assets for the Adtran Networks SE subsidiary were EUR 49.2 million in 2023, largely consisting of capitalized development projects (EUR 45.8 million) and investments in software licenses.
  • In 2024, capital expenditures for intangible assets for the Adtran Networks SE subsidiary were EUR 51.3 million, with an increase in investments for other intangible assets, while capitalized development projects and property, plant, and equipment investments decreased.

Better Bets vs. Adtran (ADTN)

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to ADTN.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ROP_1302026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01302026ROPRoper TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-13.4%-13.4%-13.8%
TDC_1302026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01302026TDCTeradataDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.7%17.7%-8.7%
CVLT_1302026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE01302026CVLTCommVault SystemsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-5.1%
NTNX_1302026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE01302026NTNXNutanixDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
6.2%6.2%-6.3%
FICO_1302026_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper01302026FICOFair IsaacMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.1%-8.1%-9.2%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADTNCIENCALXEXTRRBBNLITEMedian
NameAdtran Ciena Calix Extreme .Ribbon C.Lumentum  
Mkt Price10.07334.9555.6114.052.08667.7734.83
Mkt Cap0.847.43.71.90.447.52.8
Rev LTM1,0354,7709341,2208692,1051,127
Op Inc LTM-37311-733371022
FCF LTM266658512253-3069
FCF 3Y Avg-73685510316-6536
CFO LTM9080610414884247126
CFO 3Y Avg49496731243513399

Growth & Margins

ADTNCIENCALXEXTRRBBNLITEMedian
NameAdtran Ciena Calix Extreme .Ribbon C.Lumentum  
Rev Chg LTM14.3%18.8%4.9%20.0%7.4%48.9%16.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.7%10.4%6.6%3.2%2.2%8.6%7.6%
Rev Chg Q22.7%20.3%32.1%13.8%2.4%65.5%21.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.3%5.0%7.4%3.3%0.6%14.3%5.1%
Op Mgn LTM-3.6%6.5%-0.8%2.7%4.2%0.5%1.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-11.5%6.7%0.0%1.5%1.2%-13.6%0.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.6%0.9%3.3%-0.1%0.4%6.2%1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM8.7%16.9%11.2%12.1%9.7%11.7%11.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.3%11.2%7.8%9.5%4.1%7.5%7.7%
FCF/Rev LTM2.5%13.9%9.2%10.0%6.1%-1.4%7.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.1%8.3%5.9%7.7%1.9%-4.3%3.9%

Valuation

ADTNCIENCALXEXTRRBBNLITEMedian
NameAdtran Ciena Calix Extreme .Ribbon C.Lumentum  
Mkt Cap0.847.43.71.90.447.52.8
P/S0.89.93.91.50.422.62.7
P/EBIT-23.9191.2-519.851.740.1639.945.9
P/E-9.1384.5-504.2205.8-8.5188.790.1
P/CFO8.958.835.112.74.4192.223.9
Total Yield-11.0%0.3%-0.2%0.5%-11.7%0.5%0.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.6%2.0%1.9%4.5%3.4%-1.3%1.9%
D/E0.30.00.00.11.10.10.1
Net D/E0.20.0-0.1-0.00.90.00.0

Returns

ADTNCIENCALXEXTRRBBNLITEMedian
NameAdtran Ciena Calix Extreme .Ribbon C.Lumentum  
1M Rtn8.4%44.4%-1.6%-7.0%-21.5%84.2%3.4%
3M Rtn38.9%87.9%3.3%-18.8%-24.4%161.3%21.1%
6M Rtn9.8%273.0%-4.9%-32.0%-47.6%459.6%2.5%
12M Rtn-12.7%287.4%40.0%-11.4%-58.0%774.7%14.3%
3Y Rtn-37.4%601.9%9.7%-25.1%-51.6%1,072.3%-7.7%
1M Excs Rtn7.9%44.0%-2.1%-7.5%-22.0%83.8%2.9%
3M Excs Rtn34.5%74.7%-3.9%-20.4%-29.9%165.5%15.3%
6M Excs Rtn11.8%278.6%-9.8%-37.4%-52.0%468.2%1.0%
12M Excs Rtn-26.5%272.3%26.8%-25.1%-71.4%751.5%0.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-107.2%516.7%-62.6%-92.6%-109.1%958.7%-77.6%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Network Solutions974917499438455
Services & Support175109646875
Total1,1491,026563507530


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$10.07 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.8 
First Trading Date08/10/1994 
Distance from 52W High-12.7% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$9.24$8.91
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA9.0%13.0%
 3M1YR
Volatility40.5%58.8%
Downside Capture142.94240.01
Upside Capture294.86195.83
Correlation (SPY)46.9%54.6%
ADTN Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.631.782.652.591.681.54
Up Beta0.480.700.361.901.321.25
Down Beta-0.221.183.071.781.481.50
Up Capture378%329%303%414%350%314%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days9213062118365
Down Capture320%164%300%268%154%112%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days10193062129373

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ADTN
ADTN-16.4%58.8%-0.07-
Sector ETF (XLK)17.0%27.5%0.5558.1%
Equity (SPY)13.5%19.4%0.5355.0%
Gold (GLD)74.5%25.6%2.1514.6%
Commodities (DBC)7.2%16.9%0.2515.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.1%16.7%0.2431.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-30.6%44.9%-0.6831.9%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ADTN
ADTN-10.5%55.1%-0.01-
Sector ETF (XLK)16.1%24.8%0.5939.9%
Equity (SPY)13.4%17.0%0.6241.8%
Gold (GLD)22.6%17.1%1.0814.6%
Commodities (DBC)10.9%19.0%0.4614.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%18.8%0.1731.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.2%57.1%0.3519.4%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ADTN
ADTN-5.2%49.3%0.08-
Sector ETF (XLK)23.3%24.2%0.8838.7%
Equity (SPY)16.1%17.9%0.7741.4%
Gold (GLD)14.8%15.6%0.798.6%
Commodities (DBC)8.6%17.6%0.4018.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.0%20.7%0.3032.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.8%66.7%1.0715.2%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6.5 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 1152026-15.0%
Average Daily Volume1.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.1 days
Basic Shares Quantity79.8 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares8.1%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
1/22/2026   
11/4/2025-24.2%-23.1%-18.1%
8/5/2025-14.6%-9.6%-2.0%
5/8/2025-3.0%2.5%1.0%
2/27/2025-0.4%-0.2%-13.1%
11/7/202419.3%26.2%33.2%
8/6/2024-18.8%-18.2%-9.5%
5/7/202414.4%17.6%13.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive8129
# Negative161215
Median Positive2.5%3.5%13.0%
Median Negative-4.0%-6.8%-7.8%
Max Positive19.3%26.2%33.2%
Max Negative-24.2%-23.1%-28.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/20/202510-Q
12/31/202403/03/202510-K
09/30/202411/12/202410-Q
06/30/202408/09/202410-Q
03/31/202405/10/202410-Q
12/31/202303/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/09/202310-Q
06/30/202308/14/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202203/01/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/05/202210-Q
03/31/202205/06/202210-Q
12/31/202102/25/202210-K

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Santo, Timothy PSVP of Finance; CFODirectBuy120120258.026,15049,323213,284Form
2Theodosopoulos, Nikos DirectBuy120120257.8112,859100,429407,323Form
3Stanton, Thomas RChairman & CEODirectBuy112520257.3340,928300,0027,198,760Form