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Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

Market Price (2/17/2026): $56.83 | Market Cap: $3.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

Market Price (2/17/2026): $56.83
Market Cap: $3.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. 		Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128%		 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62%
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%		 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 71x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 77x
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2%
3   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5%
4   Key risks
AAP key risks include [1] declining market share against better-performing rivals, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 71x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 77x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5%
7 Key risks
AAP key risks include [1] declining market share against better-performing rivals, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Advance Auto Parts (AAP) stock has gained about 20% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat and Operating Margin Expansion.

Advance Auto Parts reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.92 for the third quarter of 2025, significantly exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $0.77. This performance marked the strongest quarterly showing in over two years, with comparable store sales growing by 3.0%. The company also expanded its adjusted operating income margin by 370 basis points year-over-year to 4.4%.

2. Positive Q4 2025 Earnings and Return to Full-Year Comparable Sales Growth.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Advance Auto Parts delivered adjusted EPS of $0.86, notably higher than the forecasted $0.41 to $0.43. Revenue of $1.97 billion also surpassed analysts' expectations of $1.95 billion. A key highlight was the 1.1% increase in comparable store sales for the fourth quarter, contributing to a return to positive full-year comparable sales growth of 0.8% for 2025, following three consecutive years of declines.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 21.3% change in AAP stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252172026Change
Stock Price ($)46.8556.8321.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8,6258,602-0.3%
P/S Multiple0.30.421.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)60600.2%
Cumulative Contribution21.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/17/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAP21.1% 
Market (SPY)0.1%36.4%
Sector (XLY)-3.3%35.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 8.3% change in AAP stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120252172026Change
Stock Price ($)52.4956.838.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8,9058,602-3.4%
P/S Multiple0.40.412.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6060-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution8.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/17/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAP8.1% 
Market (SPY)8.3%31.5%
Sector (XLY)5.0%37.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 19.9% change in AAP stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120252172026Change
Stock Price ($)47.4056.8319.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)9,1128,602-5.6%
Net Income Margin (%)0.5%0.5%5.6%
P/E Multiple64.177.420.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6060-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution19.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/17/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAP19.7% 
Market (SPY)14.5%25.0%
Sector (XLY)0.6%30.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -60.1% change in AAP stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/17/2026 was primarily driven by a -87.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)13120232172026Change
Stock Price ($)142.3656.83-60.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)11,0788,602-22.4%
Net Income Margin (%)4.2%0.5%-87.7%
P/E Multiple18.577.4318.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)60600.3%
Cumulative Contribution-60.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/17/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAP-60.1% 
Market (SPY)74.2%25.8%
Sector (XLY)59.8%28.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AAP Return55%-37%-58%-21%-15%51%-58%
Peers Return62%14%-2%4%4%13%119%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-0%82%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AAP Win Rate67%25%33%50%58%100% 
Peers Win Rate71%48%48%58%56%88% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AAP Max Drawdown-6%-40%-66%-40%-36%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-5%-20%-15%-11%-7%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ORLY, AZO, GPC, LKQ. See AAP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/17/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAAPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-80.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven400.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven150 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-54.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven120.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven371 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-45.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven211 days1,480 days

Compare to ORLY, AZO, GPC, LKQ

In The Past

Advance Auto Parts's stock fell -80.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/6/2022. A -80.0% loss requires a 400.8% gain to breakeven.

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About Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries, and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles, and light and heavy duty trucks. The company offers battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis and climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wires; radiators and cooling parts; starters and alternators; and steering and alignment parts. It also offers air conditioning chemicals and accessories; air fresheners; antifreeze and washer fluids; electrical wires and fuses; electronics; floor mats, seat covers, and interior accessories; hand and specialty tools; lighting products; performance parts; sealants, adhesives and compounds; tire repair accessories; vent shades, mirrors and exterior accessories; washes, waxes and cleaning supplies; and wiper blades. In addition, the company offers air filters; fuel and oil additives; fuel filters; grease and lubricants; motor oils; oil filters, part cleaners and treatments; and transmission fluids for engine maintenance. Further, it offers battery and wiper installation; engine light scanning and checking; electrical system testing; video clinic; oil and battery recycling; and loaner tool program services. Additionally, the company sells its products through its website. It serves professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. The company operates stores under the Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, and Carquest brands, as well as branches under the Worldpac name. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 4,706 stores and 266 branches in the United States, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Canada; and served 1,317 independently owned Carquest branded stores in Mexico, Grand Cayman, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and the British Virgin Islands. The company was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.

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  • Home Depot for cars
  • Lowe's for automotive repair and maintenance
  • Staples for auto parts

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  • Automotive Aftermarket Parts: Sells replacement parts for various vehicle systems, including brakes, batteries, engine components, and electrical parts.
  • Automotive Accessories: Offers products that enhance a vehicle's appearance, comfort, and functionality, such as floor mats, seat covers, and cargo organizers.
  • Tools and Equipment: Provides a wide selection of hand tools, power tools, diagnostic equipment, and repair essentials for vehicle maintenance.
  • Fluids and Chemicals: Supplies essential automotive fluids like motor oil, transmission fluid, antifreeze, and various car care and cleaning products.
  • Basic In-Store Services: Offers complimentary services like battery testing, wiper blade installation, and recycling of used motor oil and automotive batteries.

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Advance Auto Parts (AAP) serves both Do-It-Yourself (DIY) customers (individuals) and Professional (Commercial) customers (businesses). Given its significant direct sales to individuals through its retail stores and its highly fragmented sales to numerous independent professional repair shops rather than a few major identifiable corporate customers, it is most appropriate to describe its customer base through categories rather than listing specific company names for its commercial segment.

Advance Auto Parts primarily serves two major categories of customers:

  1. Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Customers: These are individual consumers who purchase automotive parts, accessories, and maintenance items to perform repairs and routine maintenance on their own vehicles. They often seek convenience, value, product availability, and advice from store team members.

  2. Professional (Commercial) Customers: This category includes independent repair shops, garages, service stations, fleet operators, and car dealerships. These businesses purchase parts and supplies from Advance Auto Parts to service vehicles for their own customers. Their priorities typically include speed of delivery, breadth of inventory, competitive pricing, and access to technical resources and specialized equipment.

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Shane O'Kelly, President and Chief Executive Officer

Shane O'Kelly joined Advance Auto Parts as President and Chief Executive Officer in September 2023. Prior to joining Advance, he served as CEO of HD Supply, a wholly owned subsidiary of The Home Depot, Inc. He also held the role of CEO of Home Depot Pro, previously known as Interline Brands, Inc. Before his time at The Home Depot, O'Kelly was CEO of PetroChoice, a large distributor of lubricants and lubrication solutions, and CEO of AH Harris, a specialty construction supply distributor. He began his career at The Home Depot and worked as an engagement manager at McKinsey and Company. O'Kelly served seven years as an infantry officer in the U.S. Army, graduating from Airborne and Ranger schools. He holds a bachelor's degree from The United States Military Academy at West Point and an MBA from Harvard Business School.

Ryan Grimsland, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Ryan Grimsland became Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Advance Auto Parts in November 2023. Before joining Advance, he spent 17 years at Lowe's Companies, Inc., where he most recently served as Senior Vice President, Strategy and Transformation. His roles at Lowe's also included Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance and Treasurer; Vice President, Corporate Financial Planning and Analysis; Vice President Business Development & International; and Vice President, Stores Finance. Earlier in his career, he held positions in operations and finance at Haverty's Furniture and UBS. Grimsland holds a bachelor's degree from High Point University and an MBA in accounting from Benedictine University.

Kristen Soler, Executive Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer

Kristen Soler serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer at Advance Auto Parts.

Bruce Starnes, Executive Vice President, Chief Merchant

Bruce Starnes holds the position of Executive Vice President, Chief Merchant at Advance Auto Parts.

Stephen J. Szilagyi, Executive Vice President, Supply Chain

Stephen J. Szilagyi is the Executive Vice President, Supply Chain for Advance Auto Parts.

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Key Risks to Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

  1. Intense Competition and Declining Market Share: Advance Auto Parts operates in a highly competitive market against strong rivals such as AutoZone and O'Reilly Automotive, which have demonstrated superior performance. The company has been experiencing a decline in market share and sales, despite implementing restructuring initiatives.
  2. Operational Challenges and Turnaround Strategy Execution Risk: The company is undertaking a significant and complex transformation strategy involving the closure of over 700 stores and the sale of assets like Worldpac, alongside efforts to streamline operations. There are concerns regarding Advance Auto Parts' ability to successfully execute this strategy, achieve stable margins, and meet earnings targets, particularly given its historical underperformance and ongoing operational issues such as supply chain inefficiencies. Inventory liquidation related to these changes is also impacting gross margins.
  3. Financial Health and Debt Structure: Advance Auto Parts faces concerns regarding its financial performance and debt structure. Its effective debt may be higher than reported due to supplier factoring arrangements, and net interest payments are substantial and projected to increase. A potential risk is that if banks reduce their willingness to extend competitive supplier credit, the company could encounter difficulties in acquiring inventory.

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Clear Emerging Threats to Advance Auto Parts (AAP):

  • Accelerating adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs): EVs fundamentally change the maintenance and parts requirements of vehicles, eliminating the need for many traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) specific parts (e.g., oil filters, spark plugs, exhaust systems, fuel pumps, belts). As EV market share continues to grow, the long-term demand for a significant portion of Advance Auto Parts' current product offerings will decrease, posing an existential threat to its core business model. This parallels the shift from traditional phones to smartphones, making many previous components obsolete.
  • Increasing penetration of online retailers in the automotive aftermarket: E-commerce platforms, including large general retailers like Amazon and specialized online auto parts stores (e.g., RockAuto, PartsGeek), continue to gain market share by offering competitive pricing, vast selection, and convenient delivery. This trend directly challenges Advance Auto Parts' reliance on its physical store footprint and traditional sales model, particularly for DIY customers who are increasingly comfortable purchasing parts online. This is analogous to how online streaming services disrupted physical media rental businesses.

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Advance Auto Parts primarily operates within the automotive aftermarket, providing a wide range of replacement parts, maintenance products, accessories, and services for both Do-It-Yourself (DIY) customers and professional installers. Their main products and services include batteries, brake pads and rotors, engine parts, chassis, steering and ride control components, motor oil, fluids, filters, and various accessories and tools. They also offer free in-store services such as battery testing and installation, and used oil and transmission fluid recycling.
The addressable market for these products and services is primarily the North American automotive aftermarket.
The U.S. automotive aftermarket, encompassing light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles, is projected to be nearly $535 billion in after-sales parts and accessories in 2024, and is expected to grow to approximately $574 billion by 2026. Focusing specifically on the light-duty automotive aftermarket in the U.S., the market size is projected at $405 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 6% projected through 2026.
For the broader North American region, the automotive aftermarket industry size was estimated at USD 108.73 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 127.51 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 2.5% from 2025 to 2030. The U.S. segment accounts for a dominant share of this North American market, representing 76% of the revenue in 2024.

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Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategic initiatives and market trends:

  1. Strategic Pricing and Merchandising Excellence: The company is implementing strategic pricing investments and focusing on merchandising excellence to enhance its competitive position and improve gross margins. This includes reassessing its market pricing and making adjustments in high-visibility and elastic categories to better meet customer needs.
  2. Supply Chain Transformation and Enhanced Parts Availability: Advance Auto Parts is investing significantly in its supply chain, including consolidating distribution centers (from 38 to 14 by 2026, with a target of 12 by 2026) and expanding its network of market hubs. These market hubs, which carry an extensive range of SKUs (75,000-85,000), are designed to improve same-day parts availability and speed of service for both professional (Pro) and DIY customers within a 60-90 store service area. This optimization is expected to reduce supply chain costs and directly boost sales by ensuring products are readily available.
  3. Growth in the Professional (Pro) Segment: The company has demonstrated consistent positive comparable sales growth in its Pro segment and is actively working to enhance its pro-business operations. Initiatives focus on serving these customers faster and more effectively, which is a significant driver given the segment's strong performance.
  4. Store Optimization and Gradual New Store Openings: While Advance Auto Parts has undertaken store optimization activities, including some closures to streamline operations, it also plans to gradually accelerate the pace of new store openings. The long-term target is to open approximately 100 new stores annually post-2027, which will expand its physical footprint and customer reach.
  5. Capitalizing on Favorable Auto Aftermarket Trends: The broader auto aftermarket industry presents a supportive backdrop for growth. Advance Auto Parts aims to capitalize on macro trends such as an aging vehicle population and increased miles driven. These factors naturally lead to a greater need for vehicle repairs and maintenance, providing a fundamental demand driver for the company's products and services.

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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years) for Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

Share Repurchases

  • Annual share buybacks were $1.525 billion in 2022.
  • Share repurchases significantly decreased to $14.518 million in 2023 and $6.501 million in 2024.
  • For the third quarter of 2025, repurchases of common stock were $4 million.

Share Issuance

  • Proceeds from the issuance of common stock were $3 million in the third quarter of 2025.
  • In March 2025, the company proposed to amend its 2023 Omnibus Incentive Compensation Plan to increase shares available for issuance by 2,170,000.

Outbound Investments

  • Advance Auto Parts announced the sale of Worldpac for $1.5 billion in August 2024, expecting net proceeds of approximately $1.2 billion after taxes and transaction fees.
  • The sale of Worldpac was completed on November 1, 2024.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures averaged $272.5 million for fiscal years ending January 2021 to 2024, peaking at $398.8 million in December 2022 and reaching a 5-year low of $180.8 million in 2024.
  • The company's full-year 2025 guidance for capital expenditures is approximately $300 million.
  • Capital expenditures are primarily focused on investments in existing store upgrades (IT infrastructure, equipment, repairs, inventory, and delivery) and opening new stores, including larger "market hubs." Advance Auto Parts plans to open 30 new stores in 2025 and at least an additional 100 new locations through 2027.

Better Bets vs. Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

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Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LULU_1302026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01302026LULULululemon AthleticaDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		1.1%1.1%-2.8%
KSS_1302026_Short_Squeeze01302026KSSKohl'sSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.		13.6%13.6%-1.0%
AAP_1022026_Short_Squeeze01022026AAPAdvance Auto PartsSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.		51.3%51.3%-0.4%
KTB_12192025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12192025KTBKontoor BrandsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		5.2%5.2%-10.3%
COUR_12192025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG12192025COURCourseraDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap		-21.8%-21.8%-24.2%
AAP_8312024_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG08312024AAPAdvance Auto PartsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap		-17.6%37.9%-32.3%

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AAPORLYAZOGPCLKQMedian
NameAdvance .O'Reilly.AutoZone Genuine .LKQ  
Mkt Price56.8392.513,744.00125.4932.5192.51
Mkt Cap3.478.562.317.58.417.5
Rev LTM8,60217,46319,28824,06114,36217,463
Op Inc LTM1613,3713,5531,4151,2551,415
FCF LTM-2981,5631,854134722722
FCF 3Y Avg-1111,9681,938631849849
CFO LTM-462,7533,250666968968
CFO 3Y Avg1093,0023,0711,1401,1501,150

Growth & Margins

AAPORLYAZOGPCLKQMedian
NameAdvance .O'Reilly.AutoZone Genuine .LKQ  
Rev Chg LTM-5.4%6.2%3.8%3.3%-0.0%3.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.5%7.5%5.2%4.1%3.5%4.1%
Rev Chg Q-1.2%7.8%8.2%4.9%1.3%4.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.3%2.0%1.8%1.2%0.3%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM1.9%19.3%18.4%5.9%8.7%8.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-0.5%19.7%19.7%6.7%9.5%9.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM7.0%0.1%-0.6%0.1%-0.2%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-0.5%15.8%16.8%2.8%6.7%6.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg1.1%18.3%16.6%4.9%8.2%8.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-3.5%8.9%9.6%0.6%5.0%5.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.3%12.0%10.5%2.7%6.1%6.1%

Valuation

AAPORLYAZOGPCLKQMedian
NameAdvance .O'Reilly.AutoZone Genuine .LKQ  
Mkt Cap3.478.562.317.58.417.5
P/S0.44.53.20.70.60.7
P/EBIT70.923.217.514.66.917.5
P/E77.431.625.321.612.025.3
P/CFO-74.028.519.226.28.619.2
Total Yield3.1%3.2%4.0%7.8%12.1%4.0%
Dividend Yield1.8%0.0%0.0%3.2%3.7%1.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.8%3.0%3.8%3.6%8.5%3.6%
D/E1.50.10.20.40.70.4
Net D/E0.60.10.20.30.60.3

Returns

AAPORLYAZOGPCLKQMedian
NameAdvance .O'Reilly.AutoZone Genuine .LKQ  
1M Rtn31.6%-2.3%6.3%-8.4%-3.0%-2.3%
3M Rtn14.9%-5.9%-2.2%0.2%8.5%0.2%
6M Rtn2.0%-10.2%-9.3%-8.2%5.0%-8.2%
12M Rtn21.5%5.2%8.3%3.7%-14.0%5.2%
3Y Rtn-59.5%58.9%43.7%-24.1%-39.9%-24.1%
1M Excs Rtn34.5%0.2%9.5%-6.4%-2.7%0.2%
3M Excs Rtn12.3%-7.5%-3.5%-2.5%2.1%-2.5%
6M Excs Rtn-5.0%-15.0%-12.7%-13.6%-0.1%-12.7%
12M Excs Rtn7.7%-8.0%-4.0%-8.0%-24.8%-8.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-127.8%2.2%-17.4%-86.7%-104.6%-86.7%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Parts and Batteries5,8027,3627,3696,6706,505
Accessories and Chemicals2,0262,2312,2002,1222,039
Engine Maintenance1,2891,4501,3201,2131,068
Other9211211010197
Total9,20911,15510,99810,1069,709


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$56.74 
Market Cap ($ Bil)3.4 
First Trading Date11/29/2001 
Distance from 52W High-13.7% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$46.53$50.87
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA21.9%11.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility53.9%80.6%
Downside Capture147.1689.99
Upside Capture197.0598.46
Correlation (SPY)41.0%24.8%
AAP Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta3.483.111.801.581.051.04
Up Beta8.376.240.882.690.980.97
Down Beta2.431.731.011.090.981.02
Up Capture527%269%269%111%102%47%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days11162858113356
Down Capture106%370%219%164%112%108%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days9253367138394

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with AAP
AAP19.6%80.6%0.52-
Sector ETF (XLY)2.9%24.1%0.0630.0%
Equity (SPY)13.0%19.4%0.5124.7%
Gold (GLD)67.2%25.5%1.990.1%
Commodities (DBC)5.2%16.8%0.139.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.8%16.6%0.2826.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-28.8%44.9%-0.6213.6%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with AAP
AAP-16.9%51.6%-0.17-
Sector ETF (XLY)7.0%23.7%0.2632.0%
Equity (SPY)13.3%17.0%0.6230.4%
Gold (GLD)21.3%17.1%1.022.9%
Commodities (DBC)10.2%18.9%0.428.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.3%18.8%0.1929.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)8.2%57.2%0.3610.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with AAP
AAP-7.5%44.2%-0.02-
Sector ETF (XLY)14.1%21.9%0.5939.8%
Equity (SPY)15.8%17.9%0.7637.4%
Gold (GLD)14.8%15.6%0.793.2%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%17.6%0.3713.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.8%20.7%0.2934.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.5%66.7%1.088.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11.5 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 1152026-12.0%
Average Daily Volume2.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity59.9 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares19.3%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/13/20261.1%  
10/30/2025-8.0%-11.7%-4.2%
7/24/2025-10.3%-16.0%-16.4%
11/14/20240.6%-5.6%7.1%
8/22/2024-17.5%-24.7%-33.8%
5/29/2024-11.0%-7.1%-10.7%
2/28/20242.6%12.2%31.8%
8/23/20233.1%-0.6%-13.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1067
# Negative121514
Median Positive2.2%4.2%7.1%
Median Negative-8.8%-7.1%-15.0%
Max Positive6.2%12.2%31.8%
Max Negative-35.0%-41.1%-39.2%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/13/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202508/14/202510-Q
03/31/202505/22/202510-Q
12/31/202402/26/202510-K
09/30/202411/14/202410-Q
06/30/202408/22/202410-Q
03/31/202405/30/202410-Q
12/31/202303/12/202410-K
09/30/202311/21/202310-Q
06/30/202308/23/202310-Q
03/31/202306/06/202310-Q
12/31/202202/28/202310-K
09/30/202211/16/202210-Q
06/30/202208/24/202210-Q
03/31/202205/24/202210-Q

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Soler, Kristen LEVP, Chief HR OfficerDirectSell1114202551.007,662390,7621,181,415Form
2Hand, JasonSVP, U.S. StoresDirectSell623202548.5294845,995479,176Form
3Grimsland, Ryan PEVP, Chief Financial OfficerDirectBuy331202540.702008,1402,299,509Form
4Okelly, Shane MDirector, President and CEODirectBuy312202536.791,50055,1856,737,022Form
5Lee, Eugene I JrFamily TrustBuy310202534.1514,640499,9561,163,490Form

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