How Will Palantir Technologies Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) is set to report its earnings on Monday, November 3, 2025. The company has $460 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.4 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $570 Mil in operating profits and net income of $763 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Palantir Technologies’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 20%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -13%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2025 | 7.8% | 13.7% | -3.6% |
| 5/5/2025 | -12.0% | -4.3% | 5.0% |
| 2/3/2025 | 24.0% | 39.3% | 7.6% |
| 11/4/2024 | 23.5% | 45.5% | 68.7% |
| 8/5/2024 | 10.4% | 22.0% | 27.0% |
| 5/6/2024 | -15.1% | -16.9% | -8.9% |
| 2/5/2024 | 30.8% | 49.8% | 56.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | 20.4% | 23.9% | 35.9% |
| 8/7/2023 | -5.3% | -12.6% | -15.0% |
| 5/8/2023 | 23.4% | 23.0% | 89.8% |
| 2/13/2023 | 21.2% | 11.3% | 3.8% |
| 11/7/2022 | -11.5% | 6.1% | -11.9% |
| 8/8/2022 | -14.2% | -13.4% | -36.4% |
| 5/9/2022 | -21.3% | -12.0% | -3.7% |
| 2/17/2022 | -15.7% | -15.3% | -8.2% |
| 11/9/2021 | -9.3% | -12.5% | -25.9% |
| 8/12/2021 | 11.4% | 13.1% | 17.6% |
| 5/11/2021 | 9.4% | 10.8% | 30.9% |
| 2/16/2021 | -12.8% | -12.3% | -19.7% |
| 11/12/2020 | 8.4% | 30.2% | 86.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 20.4% | 22.5% | 30.9% |
| Median Negative | -12.8% | -12.6% | -11.9% |
| Max Positive | 30.8% | 49.8% | 89.8% |
| Max Negative | -21.3% | -16.9% | -36.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 13.2% | 28.1% | 28.7% |
| 3Y History | -6.7% | 24.0% | -2.9% |
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