Is Penn Stock A Safe Haven Amid Geopolitical Tensions?

March 1st, 2022 by Trefis Team
PENN: PENN Entertainment logo
PENN
PENN Entertainment

After observing the highs of $130 last year, the shares of Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ: PENN) are again climbing the ladder despite geopolitical tensions and broader market contraction. In 2021, the company’s revenues surpassed pre-pandemic levels assisted by its slot gaming business in the Northeast and South regions. Penn’s Interactive Gaming segment, which represents the sports betting business, reported a 12% share of the U.S. sports betting market (excluding Nevada) with an 11% hold rate. As highlighted in our earlier article, Penn Stock Poised For Long Term Gains?, Penn National Gaming can more than double its revenues with a 15% market share in the long-term. Thus, Penn stock is poised for capital gains even amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment. Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, PENN stock has a 58% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis Penn National Gaming Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Five Days: PENN 8.6%, vs. S&P 500 0.6%; Outperformed market (7% event probability)

  • PENN stock gained 8.6% over a five-day trading period ending 03/01/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was relatively flat.
  • Returns of 8.6% or higher over a five-day period on 181 occasions out of 2517 (7%); Stock rose in the next five days in 116 of these 181 instances (64%).
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Ten Days: PENN 5.4%, vs. S&P 500 -0.9%; Outperformed market (26% event probability)

  • PENN stock gained 5.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 1%.
  • Returns of 5.4% or higher over 10-day period on 662 occasions out of 2516 (26%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 364 of these 662 instances (55%).

Twenty-One Days: PENN 21%, vs. S&P 500 1.3%; Outperformed market (9% event probability)

  • PENN stock gained 21% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was relatively flat.
  • Returns of 21% or higher over 21-day period on 217 occasions out of 2516 (9%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 126 of these 217 instances (58%).

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 Returns Mar 2022
MTD [1]		 2022
YTD [1]		 2017-22
Total [2]
 PENN Return 0% -1% 272%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -8% 96%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -1% -10% 251%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/1/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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