Penn National Gaming Stock: Should You Buy The Dip?

February 9th, 2022 by Trefis Team
PENN: PENN Entertainment logo
PENN
PENN Entertainment

The shares of Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ: PENN) observed a deep contraction in Q4 2021 along with its peers, Draft Kings and Flutter Entertainment, due to concerns of high competitive rivalry, the Omicron variant disrupting the NFL league, and a pullback in macroeconomic activity. Per Q4 filings, the market share of Penn’s sports betting application Barstool in Pennsylvania and Michigan was 8.9% and 9.5%, respectively. Notably, Pennsylvania and New Jersey account for 35% of the total sports betting handle since 2018. Is PENN stock likely to gain more in the coming weeks and months or is a decline more likely? Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, PENN stock has a 59% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis Penn National Gaming Stock Chance of Rise for more details. (related: Las Vegas Sands Stock: Ride The Momentum Or Pull Out?)

Five Days: PENN 1.8%, vs. S&P 500 -0.4%; Outperformed market (35% event probability)

  • PENN stock gained 1.8% over a five-day trading period ending 02/08/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 0.4% over the same period.
  • Returns of 1.8% or higher over five-day period on 873 occasions out of 2517 (35%); Stock rose in the next 5 days in 457 of these 873 instances (52%).
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Ten Days: PENN 11%, vs. S&P 500 3.8%; Outperformed market (10% event probability)

  • PENN stock gained 11% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which increased 3.8%.
  • Returns of 11% or higher over 10-day period on 258 occasions out of 2517 (10%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 158 of these 258 instances (61%).

Twenty-One Days: PENN 1.8%, vs. S&P 500 -3.3%; Outperformed market (48% event probability)

  • PENN stock gained 1.8% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which lost 3.3%.
  • Returns of 1.8% or higher over 21-day period on 1214 occasions out of 2516 (48%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 714 of these 1214 instances (59%).

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Feb 2022
MTD [1]		 2022
YTD [1]		 2017-22
Total [2]
 PENN Return 5% -7% 249%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -5% 102%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 0% -9% 258%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/9/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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