How Many Warnings Can You Give?

July 21st, 2014 by Michael Lombardi, MBA
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How Many Warnings Can You Give?

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I’ve been writing in these pages for most of 2014 on how the stock market has become one huge bubble. On my short list:

The economy is weak. The U.S. experienced negative growth in the first quarter of 2014. If the same thing happens in the second quarter (we’ll soon know), we will be in a recession again. Revenue growth at big companies is almost non-existent.

Insiders at public companies are selling stocks (in the companies they work for) at a record pace.

The amount of money investors have borrowed to buy stocks is at a record high (a negative for the stock market).

The VIX “Fear” index, which measures the amount of fear investors have about stocks declining, is near a record low (another negative for the stock market).

Bullishness among stock advisors, as measured by Investors Intelligence, is near a record high (again, a negative for the stock market).

The Federal Reserve has issued its economic outlook, and it says interest rates will be much higher at the end of 2015 than they are today and that they will continue moving upward in 2016.

The Federal Reserve has said it will be out of the money printing business by the end of this year. (Who will buy all those T-bills the U.S. government has to issue to keep in business?)

And yesterday, in an unprecedented statement, Janet Yellen, during her usual semi-annual testimony to Congress, said the valuations of tech stocks are “high relative to historical norms.”

How many warnings can you give investors?

Well, the warnings don’t seem to matter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has plowed through the 17,000 level, and the stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones, is up three percent this year.

Dear reader, the higher the stock market goes, the bigger its fall from grace will be. Don’t get suckered into the hype the mainstream media feeds us. Focus on the proven, long-term historical market valuation tools I have listed above and have patience as the case for a crash from these stock market levels builds. And remember: time is foe to the speculator, friend to the investor.

 

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