Apple Gains Momentum In China As iPhone 5 Launch Nears

With the holiday quarter nearing its end, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) looks set to receive a big push in iPhone sales from China. Apple’s oldest carrier partner in the country, China Unicom (NYSE:CHU), announced Thursday that it received over 200,000 bookings for the iPhone 5 in the first couple of days that the popular smartphone was made available for pre-order. This is nearly double the 100,000 pre-orders it received on the opening day itself. ^[1] By the end of the week, the pre-order numbers tripled to 300,000. In comparison, the carrier had received only 50,000 opening day pre-orders for the iPhone 4 a couple of years ago. With China Telecom (NYSE:CHA) also launching the iPhone 5 in China, Apple’s holiday quarter results will receive a much-needed late boost, having negotiated through a supply crunch in the earlier part of the quarter.

A deal with the largest wireless carrier in the world, China Mobile, however remains elusive until Apple can work out a subsidy deal with the carrier. How soon that will happen is open to speculation considering the Chinese government’s possible opposition to the huge iPhone subsidies. (see Apple’s China Potential Could Be Limited By A Subsidy Compromise With China Mobile) But knowing that the carrier’s 3G growth has been hurting due to unavailability of the iPhone, such a deal should not be too far along. This deal is very important for Apple as it can instantly double the iPhone’s current addressable market in China and act as the next big boost to its stock given that the iPhone accounts for around 55% of the company’s stock value currently. (see Apple Can Ride China Potential Past $800 With China Mobile’s Support)

See our complete analysis for Apple here

Apple’s China story

Despite not having a China Mobile deal, Apple hasn’t performed too badly in China so far. Revenues from greater China, which includes mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, in the September quarter grew 26% year-over-year and accounted for 15% of Apple’s revenues for the fiscal year. This brought Apple’s FY2012 revenues from the region to about $24 billion, about 80% growth over FY 2011.

China is indeed a huge opportunity for Apple considering that the country has already overtaken the U.S. as the world’s largest smartphone market by volume. This is an incredible statistic considering that China is only in the early stages of smartphone adoption. 3G penetration in China stands at only about 20% currently and is growing strongly. Considering the huge 2G subscriber base that the Chinese carriers are looking to upgrade to 3G, the potential for Apple to ride the boom is huge. Demand for the newly launched iPhone 5 has so far been strong and China’s addition this holiday season will help boost what has seasonally been Apple’s strongest quarter further.

As the country grows and the average Chinese sees an increase in buying power, we expect to see a growing shift in demand from 2G to 3G smartphones. The iPhone can help Apple tap this phenomenal growth in demand. Even Apple’s CEO Tim Cook acknowledged the immense potential that China presents when he said during the Q2 earnings call that the country was Apple’s “fastest growing region” by far and that the company was doing everything it could to market its brand in China.

Penetrating China could however mean margin pressures as the company negotiates carrier subsidies with China Mobile and competes with the increasingly popular Android phones. With cheap Android smartphones seeing huge demand and the pricing war gradually dragging prices down to sub-$100 levels, Apple will do well to avoid this segment for as long as it can without sacrificing growth. It therefore bodes well that Apple is only just getting started in China and has ample opportunity to drive sales in the country without having to drop prices anytime soon.

Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis

1. China Unicom’s iPhone 5 reservations double to 200,000 in 3 days, TheNextWeb, December 6th, 2012 [↩]