Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Market Price (11/3/2025): $256.8 | Market Cap: $416.8 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Market Price (11/3/2025): $256.8
Market Cap: $416.8 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | Trading close to highs Dist 52W High is -3.1%, Dist 3Y High is -3.1% | Expensive valuation multiples P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 168x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 85x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 147x |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.0 Bil | Yield minus risk free rate is negative ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
| Strong revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.0 Bil |
| Trading close to highs Dist 52W High is -3.1%, Dist 3Y High is -3.1% |
| Expensive valuation multiples P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 168x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 85x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 147x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negative ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
AMD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the 45.3% stock movement for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) from July 31, 2025, to November 1, 2025:
1. Positive Q2 2025 Earnings and Strong Q3 Guidance: Advanced Micro Devices reported its Q2 2025 financial results on August 5, 2025. While the adjusted EPS of $0.48 slightly missed Wall Street expectations of $0.54, the company's revenue of $7.7 billion exceeded the $7.4 billion forecast. More significantly, AMD provided robust Q3 guidance, projecting revenue in the range of $8.4 billion to $9 billion, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates. This optimistic outlook for the upcoming quarter, driven by strong performance in the data center and AI segments, helped set a positive tone for the stock.
2. Strategic Partnership with OpenAI: On October 6, 2025, AMD announced a major multi-year, multi-generation agreement with OpenAI. This partnership involves OpenAI deploying 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs to power its next-generation AI infrastructure, with the initial 1 gigawatt deployment of AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs scheduled to begin in the second half of 2026. This groundbreaking deal is expected to generate tens of billions of dollars in revenue for AMD and was accompanied by a warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares for OpenAI, contingent on specific milestones. This announcement was a significant bullish catalyst, driving investor optimism regarding AMD's position in the rapidly expanding AI market.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMD Return | 100% | 57% | -55% | 128% | -18% | 112% | 458% |
| Peers Return | 37% | 31% | -31% | 78% | 8% | 39% | 228% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMD Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 43% | 28% | 55% | 40% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMD Max Drawdown | -16% | -20% | -61% | -4% | -19% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -6% | -39% | -3% | -29% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NVDA, INTC, MCHP, QRVO, AMBQ. See AMD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/31/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 461 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1030.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3556 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NVDA, INTC, MCHP, QRVO, AMBQ
In The Past
Advanced Micro Devices's stock fell -65.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -65.4% loss requires a 189.4% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AMD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.4% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| 12312021 | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -48.8% | -55.0% | -61.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.4% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| 12312021 | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -48.8% | -55.0% | -61.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Advanced Micro Devices
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | - |
| Mkt Cap | 174.7 |
| Rev LTM | 16,918 |
| Op Inc LTM | 213 |
| FCF LTM | 656 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,018 |
| CFO LTM | 2,837 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,063 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 174.7 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| P/EBIT | 49.5 |
| P/E | 57.0 |
| P/CFO | 42.3 |
| Total Yield | 0.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | - |
| 3M Rtn | - |
| 6M Rtn | - |
| 12M Rtn | - |
| 3Y Rtn | - |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 56.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 26.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -24.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | 6,496 | 6,043 | 3,694 | ||
| Gaming | 6,212 | 6,805 | 5,607 | ||
| Embedded | 5,321 | 4,552 | 246 | ||
| Client | 4,651 | 6,201 | 6,887 | ||
| Computing and Graphics | 6,432 | 4,709 | |||
| Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom | 3,331 | 2,022 | |||
| Total | 22,680 | 23,601 | 16,434 | 9,763 | 6,731 |
Operating Income by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Embedded | 2,628 | 2,252 | 44 | ||
| Data Center | 1,267 | 1,848 | 991 | ||
| Gaming | 971 | 953 | 934 | ||
| Client | -46 | 1,190 | 2,088 | ||
| All Other | -4,419 | -4,979 | -409 | -288 | -209 |
| Computing and Graphics | 1,266 | 577 | |||
| Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom | 391 | 263 | |||
| Total | 401 | 1,264 | 3,648 | 1,369 | 631 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1312024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
| 9302021 | 10272021 | 10-Q 9/25/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Hahn Ava | SVP, GC & Corporate Secretary | 9042025 | Sell | 158.10 | 143 | 22,608 | 1,881,548 | Form |
| 1 | GUIDO PHILIP | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | 5212025 | Buy | 113.56 | 8,800 | 999,328 | 4,806,086 | Form |
| 2 | GUIDO PHILIP | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | 2122025 | Buy | 107.56 | 4,645 | 499,616 | 3,605,626 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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