The Continued Struggle Of The Restaurant Industry In The U.S.

+1.13%
Upside
290
Market
294
Trefis
MCD: McDonald's logo
MCD
McDonald's

Despite economic recovery being seen in the U.S., the restaurant industry continues to struggle, as sales and traffic remain weak. Since the beginning of 2016, comparable sales (except February) and traffic have been deteriorating in every single month. This is despite the improvement in the job market, which is said to be closely linked to consumer spending.
14092

In such a scenario, it has become increasingly difficult for independent restaurants to operate profitably. Not only do they lack the funds to spend on marketing, but they also have to compete with ubiquitous chain restaurants, such as McDonald’s, Burger King, Dunkin’, Starbucks, etc. This leads to a problem of inadequate presence, which results in low traffic. Consequently, a staggering number of independent restaurants have closed in the last four years, while the number of chain restaurants continues to grow.

14091

Relevant Articles
  1. Looking Beyond The Golden Arches: Drop McDonald’s Stock, Pick This Conglomerate?
  2. Down 14% YTD, What Lies Ahead For McDonald’s Stock Following Q2 Earnings?
  3. Down 12% This Year, What’s Happening With McDonald’s Stock?
  4. Dropping 8% Year To Date, Will McDonald’s Stock Recover Post Q1 Results?
  5. What To Expect From McDonald’s Q4 After Stock Up 13% Since 2023?
  6. After A 14% Top-Line Growth In Q2 Will McDonald’s Stock Deliver Another Strong Quarter?

Quick Service Restaurants (QSR)

Of the total industry traffic, roughly 80% is from quick service restaurants. Fast casuals, a segment of QSR, had been growing at a spectacular rate for the last few years. However, as of late, fast casual traffic has failed to show any meaningful growth in comps. According to NPD, the growth stagnation problem revolves around fewer lunch visits to restaurants this year, as an increasing percentage of the labor force is choosing to work from home, thus skipping the lunchtime restaurant rush. Further, in the face of economic uncertainties, consumers are spending less of their disposable income on eating out. This issue is further compounded by the decline in food at home inflation, while restaurant menu prices continue to increase.

14094

As can be seen in the table above, the only daypart that continues to show improvement in terms of visits is breakfast. NPD forecasts total breakfast occasions, in- and away-from-home, to grow by 5% through 2019, faster than the increase in population. If QSRs are to escape the industry-wide slowdown in traffic and sales, it is essential that they leverage the breakfast daypart. In line with this, companies like McDonald’s and Starbucks have introduced all day breakfast, and more breakfast-centered menu items, respectively.

Have more questions on McDonald’s? See the links below.

Notes:

1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com
2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to our complete analysis for McDonald’s

See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis)

Get Trefis Technology